View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. helopilot06's Avatar
    Doesn't the playbook fiasco indicate that they simply wouldn't be able to get BB10 onto the sort of spec that a low-end device would have - for example, a minimum of 2gb of ram?
    you can get cheaper lower end memory that would run it. beautifully? no. but that's why its low end
    07-01-13 12:11 PM
  2. cgk's Avatar
    Comparing cash pot to other companies isn't quite the correct way to look at things. You need to compare it to costs. $3 billion is more than Apple has until recently spent on its entire R&D. Assuming the Q10 and Q5 are both at least decently margined phones and they will cell at least as well as the Z10 (and I think everyone is expecting them to sell better), then BBRY really should have no cash issues for at least another nine months.
    It shows how sub-scale they are compared to the two players in the market - the whole pile is about 1/5th Samsung's M&A spending, that's why I don't actually expect the Q10 and Q5 to sell particularly well because they will simply be drown out. People were claiming all sorts of wild things about Z10 sales so I'm taking anything about the Q10 and Q5 with a very large pinch of salt until the next earnings call.
    mikeo007 likes this.
    07-01-13 12:12 PM
  3. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Out of interest, what was the stock price when Heins took over?
    I *think* it was in the $15s.
    07-01-13 12:13 PM
  4. dusdal's Avatar
    No its not. I know its small, but there is column for April 2013 and May 2013.
    I see what you are saying! Compare Apr 13 on the left with May 13 on the right. Apologies!

    Having said that, compare these slight drops from the Kantar data in market share to the Global Statcounter data. It is the same

    Now that we have determined that your data and Global Statcounter data are saying the same thing, tracking the same percentages and trends, look at the 'current' data from Global Statcounter.

    An explosion of blackberry usage in Canada in the month after Q1 reporting and a large uptick in the UK in this current week.

    Thoughts?
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 12:14 PM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Channel check.
    Anecdotal ? Well ... Think inventory. Either ways , you know mine.
    http://forums.crackberry.com/news-ru...3/#post8742550
    07-01-13 12:15 PM
  6. cgk's Avatar
    Anectodal of course: Full disclosure we are only around 500 employees.

    My shop has upgraded to BES10 over the past three months. Middle management and up has been receiving Z10 and Q10.

    The field staff will be keeping their BB7 and lower curves for the time being. I would expect them to be upgraded when a lower cost BB10 phone is available.
    Notice Heins is very careful in his wording - he includes "downloaded" in his number of fortune 500 companies, that doesn't mean "deployed" not by a long stretch...
    07-01-13 12:15 PM
  7. sidhuk's Avatar
    fellows, take a look at the details of this earning report. it is pretty fine to me. i think got released this morning and has full details.
    http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...nal_filing.pdf
    bungaboy, Shanerredflag and dusdal like this.
    07-01-13 12:24 PM
  8. morganplus8's Avatar
    By demanding TH should step down he sorta can claim he was right all along, if only TH would not have "dropped" the ball. How come nobody is talking about all these Fortune 500 companies that are about to switch to BB10? Everybody stressing the negatives of TH's call and forgetting the positives and then claim TH was negative on the call, yeah tough to win if you are TH.
    It's a tricky situation, most analysts became "wrong" because they kept raising their handset targets for Q1 without regard for the 12 month price target of the stock. We saw this time and again, the bearish analysts would concede that BlackBerry likely sold more phones in the quarter, but they didn't bother to raise their targets for the stock. Kind of like saying "we believe they probably sold far more phones but we prefer to hold onto our short position anyway". It worked out fine for them as everyone was caught off guard by the numbers and EVERYONE forgot that guidance was not even given by the company re: handsets. All of this unit sales stuff was manufactured from the beginning. And so most of us who had no hard data to use to limit our expectations, went with the flow. If it were any other company, we would have expected the stock to fall 10% on this news. But this is BlackBerry, a company were you can make up expectations and then punish the company because they didn't fulfill your own numbers. I think anything below a 10% drop is likely margin call fishing today. The timing was perfect as Funds want to get the stock out of their accounts for window dressing purposes. Now we have extreme lows, much like in Sept. when we sat at $ 6.22 for a few hours and had 1/2 the cash and no products to take to market.

    In 2 months, BES10 could set the stage for a monster rally when it becomes clear the business is ready to order more phones and security than teenagers ever could. We'll have fresh new shareholders by then, and probably some real surprises as we have seen a monster volume of over 150,000,000 shares trades in NA on Friday.

    Today we are watching margin calls flow in, and base building, while the last of the analyst adjustments take place. Next week we get the AGM and we have to look forward to BES10 going forward. Personally, I would like it if we can quietly burn off some time without the media to bother us any more. The stock can base out and drift around and let the company get its footing again. We will forget this in the months ahead and certainly if BES 10 looks like it is drawing money from Enterprise. Then the cycle of life repeats itself.
    Korepab, dusdal, sidhuk and 15 others like this.
    07-01-13 12:38 PM
  9. _dimi_'s Avatar
    fellows, take a look at the details of this earning report. it is pretty fine to me. i think got released this morning and has full details.
    http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...nal_filing.pdf
    When looking at page 20, what does it tell us about the inventory levels? Only 80 million in finished goods seems okay?

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 12:39 PM
  10. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    An explosion of blackberry usage in Canada in the month after Q1 reporting and a large uptick in the UK in this current week.
    Thoughts?
    Well, its the exact same issue as in Canada, isnt it. It all happened in one day (today actually), going up by 5%.

    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    If we ignore malicious intent (which is my main suspicion) then the only explanation is that mis-classified iPhone traffic is being reassigned to BB. The increase does not inform us of BB sales at all then, as iOS has been steady at around 48% for ages, and did not go up 5% over the last few months due to wrongly assigned BB data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    mikeo007 likes this.
    07-01-13 12:41 PM
  11. robot_ca's Avatar
    Posted via CB10
    silversun10 likes this.
    07-01-13 12:41 PM
  12. dusdal's Avatar
    Well, its the exact same issue as in Canada, isnt it. It all happened in one day (today actually), going up by 5%.

    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    If we ignore malicious intent (which is my main suspicion) then the only explanation is that mis-classified iPhone traffic is being reassigned to BB. The increase does not inform us of BB sales at all then, as iOS has been steady at around 48% for ages, and did not go up 5% over the last few months due to wrongly assigned BB data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    I'm not sure the only explanation is mis-classified iPhone traffic. It could also be people using their new bb10 devices.

    As you mentioned, the iOS data does not drop at the same time that the bb data rises. This makes the browser confusion problem seem less likely.

    Now we have two possibilities that we have mentioned: malicious intent and bb10 sales.

    So far all of the other data you have is corroborated by the globalstatcounter data. It has shown the same trends and rough proportions.

    The only difference has been the data that the other sources haven't revealed. I guess we'll see if they continue to corroborate when their June data is released. That should show the Canada pop, but not the UK one.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 12:45 PM
  13. _dimi_'s Avatar
    I'm not sure the only explanation is mis-classified iPhone traffic. It could also be people using their new bb10 devices.

    As you mentioned, the iOS data does not drop at the same time that the bb data rises. This makes the browser confusion problem seem less likely.

    Now we have two possibilities that we have mentioned: malicious intent and bb10 sales.
    Do we know how often their charts are updated? It would surprise me if it were done on a daily basis..?

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 12:50 PM
  14. robot_ca's Avatar
    Guys. Great thread. I'm a BB shareholder and a Waterloo grad. Wanted to chime in that I work for a large construction company. Our office (200 people) is slowly adopting bb10 largely on my say so. We are still testing BES 10, with very good feedback from our IT guys. Point is, we were quick off the mark to try BB10 and are still ramping up after 5 months. It's going to take time ( 6 months to a year) for businesses to really embrace BB10. I think all of us are disappointed right now but need to understand this is a longer process than most expected. The market needs to hear that story to get expectations in line with reality imo.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 12:50 PM
  15. sidhuk's Avatar
    When looking at page 20, what does it tell us about the inventory levels? Only 80 million in finished goods seems okay?

    Posted via CB10
    Some Guy named Paul replied with this. I didnt have time to go that for yet.
    "
    As at
    June 1,
    2013
    March 2,
    2013
    Raw materials $ 641 $ 588
    Work in process 629 371
    Finished goods 80 78
    Provision for excess and obsolete inventories (463) (434)
    $ 887 $ 603
    http://ca.blackberry.com/content/dam...nal_filing.pdf

    You can see on page 10 of the financials that most of the inventory is work in process and raw materials, not finished goods. This would imply they are not necessarily sitting on a bunch of Z10's."
    07-01-13 12:58 PM
  16. dusdal's Avatar
    Do we know how often their charts are updated? It would surprise me if it were done on a daily basis..?

    Posted via CB10
    From what I can tell from their site, it is essentially real time.

    They make money by providing organizations specifics and metadata about web hits to their sites.

    Also, apparently today is the official Q5 launch in the UK. Hmm...
    07-01-13 01:01 PM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Guys. Great thread. I'm a BB shareholder and a Waterloo grad. Wanted to chime in that I work for a large construction company. Our office (200 people) is slowly adopting bb10 largely on my say so. We are still testing BES 10, with very good feedback from our IT guys. Point is, we were quick off the mark to try BB10 and are still ramping up after 5 months. It's going to take time ( 6 months to a year) for businesses to really embrace BB10. I think all of us are disappointed right now but need to understand this is a longer process than most expected. The market needs to hear that story to get expectations in line with reality imo.

    Posted via CB10
    Welcome aboard robot_ca !
    Let us know (here and there) how it goes !
    Cheers
    SupaClown
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-01-13 01:06 PM
  18. Alastor263's Avatar
    Dont know if it was posted already. At "Netmarketshare" BBRY market share increased from 1.64% to 2.26% for June at least supporting the Statcounter and Kantar stats !?
    morganplus8, rarsen, jxnb and 3 others like this.
    07-01-13 01:07 PM
  19. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Oh Zach is back. Balanced and fair. Cool to be able to see some blue again.
    BlackBerry 10 Lumia Smartphone Sales: Struggles continue for Nokia, BB | BGR
    bungaboy likes this.
    07-01-13 01:10 PM
  20. tygros's Avatar
    Well, its the exact same issue as in Canada, isnt it. It all happened in one day (today actually), going up by 5%.

    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    If we ignore malicious intent (which is my main suspicion) then the only explanation is that mis-classified iPhone traffic is being reassigned to BB. The increase does not inform us of BB sales at all then, as iOS has been steady at around 48% for ages, and did not go up 5% over the last few months due to wrongly assigned BB data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    Ok, so your logic is if it shows BB rising it must be a mistake, and ha sto be Apple traffic.
    What the HECK is wrong with you guys?
    Get off the bashing bandwagon and find another forum. I value respectable opinions, but not one's based in la la land. BB has NEVER shows sales trends to follow web traffic. Ever. BB isn't a web-first device - never has been. So find another data point that shows historical accuracy's with respect to sales trends, and you'll have my attention - but until then, GET A LIFE OUTSIDE OF CB - especially if you don't support the BBRY SP!
    07-01-13 01:15 PM
  21. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    I'm not sure the only explanation is mis-classified iPhone traffic. It could also be people using their new bb10 devices.

    As you mentioned, the iOS data does not drop at the same time that the bb data rises. This makes the browser confusion problem seem less likely.
    Actually IOS dropped almost exactly the same as BB rose - 5%

    iOS:48.22 to 42.73=5.49%
    BB:14.58 to19.58=5%
    07-01-13 01:15 PM
  22. dusdal's Avatar
    Dont know if it was posted already. At "Netmarketshare" BBRY market share increased from 1.64% to 2.26% for June at least supporting the Statcounter and Kantar stats !?
    Good one!

    It does appear to mirror the other data for previous months as well as the current Statcounter numbers for June.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 01:18 PM
  23. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    BB has NEVER shows sales trends to follow web traffic. Ever. BB isn't a web-first device - never has been. So find another data point that shows historical accuracy's with respect to sales trends, and you'll have my attention - but until then, GET A LIFE OUTSIDE OF CB - especially if you don't support the BBRY SP!
    Actually it was not me who brought up Statcounter data:

    An explosion of blackberry usage in Canada in the month after Q1 reporting and a large uptick in the UK in this current week.
    Thoughts?
    07-01-13 01:18 PM
  24. dusdal's Avatar
    Actually IOS dropped almost exactly the same as BB rose - 5%

    iOS:48.22 to 42.73=5.49%
    BB:14.58 to19.58=5%
    Oh I see, good point.

    Could be misappropriated browser counts or it could be iphone users jumping ship. Or it could be RIM spending some advert dollars for Global Statcounter to skew their results.

    I know four personally that have done so (jumped from iOS to BB10), but that's just anecdotal.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 01:19 PM
  25. tygros's Avatar
    Actually it was not me who brought up Statcounter data:
    You brought up Kantar first earlier in the day - this was after your original posts...
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 01:22 PM
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