View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. cgk's Avatar
    I honestly think that for markets like the US it is an entry level device. the Z10 isn't all that from from a mid level device and in the next 6 months will completely be a mid level device. Now would a lower end device for emerging markets be a good idea absolutely. at least from I'm reading though id consider it a low end device by the time it really rolls out here
    Doesn't the playbook fiasco indicate that they simply wouldn't be able to get BB10 onto the sort of spec that a low-end device would have - for example, a minimum of 2gb of ram?
    dusdal and morganplus8 like this.
    07-01-13 12:15 PM
  2. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Ah Michael Collins - the man who was telling us how great devices were sellling via wandering down to his local store and checking on ebay, a man who was held up as a great visionary who had seen through the analysts and their cautionary tales - how is that working out for him?
    Lol... :-D

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 12:16 PM
  3. dusdal's Avatar
    Attachment 177838

    Kantar June report for 3 months ending in May is out. No evidence of BB traction in US, UK or Europe in general.
    News - Samsung, 50% share in Europe as Apple powers back in the US - Kantar Worldpanel
    Honestly, I'm not trying to pick on you at all. In fact I welcome the additional data points.

    But that Kantar report is YoY data.

    Of course it's going to look bad across that time frame when compared to others that aren't launching new platforms in the last month of the reported time period.

    We all know that marketshare fell over the year, pretty well everywhere on the planet.

    What we are looking for is signs of traction now.

    For the life of me, I can't find the data on that website. I can only find the selective reports such as the one you have posted. Do they have a place where we can compare data openly? i.e change time frames and regions for comparison?

    Edit: FWIW, again. Use the same data from your Kantar data and input these variables into globalstatcounter. It is very much the same. Select the UK, starting point May 12, ending point May 13. Web Hits dropped to less than half for BlackBerry OS.
    Last edited by dusdal; 07-01-13 at 12:34 PM.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 12:24 PM
  4. m1a1mg's Avatar
    07-01-13 12:29 PM
  5. JLagoon's Avatar
    Oh god, it's $10.20.
    07-01-13 12:30 PM
  6. dusdal's Avatar
    This is certainly worrisome. Even Windows is growing. I really thought BB10 started off pretty good in the UK...

    I wonder if it is because Nokia started selling a bunch of cheap Lumia phones.

    I do think BlackBerry needs to bring out a high-spec'd phone. Like the poster several posts above said, it is the easiest thing to sell. TH has been trying to sell people the experience but it's hard to sell that when not a lot of people are willing to even pick up the phone.

    Not saying the experience is not good, it is fantastic actually, but I think this strategy would work if we have some low-entry phones so people wouldn't mind giving it a try without sacrificing too much of their wallet.

    A10 absolutely needs to have the top of the line specs to attract the high-end segment so they feel they are getting what they paid for.

    Now where is that partnership...
    The trouble is that data puts BlackBerry data into the worst possible light. Even Windows phone is showing an uptick because Windows Phone 8 launched in October 2012. Of course iOS and Android were on their upswing over the past year as well.

    This data is congruent to having a running race, allowing two runners (iOS, Android) a running start. Essentially starting the clock as soon as they cross the line. Then when half of the time is up, let a third runner go (windows) and just before the time is up tell the last runner he can start (BB).

    Then quickly stop the race and ask BB why he's hardly gotten anywhere?
    Korepab, morganplus8, jxnb and 1 others like this.
    07-01-13 12:31 PM
  7. cgk's Avatar
    Aren't we over complicating a fairly simple issue - one that was basically confirmed at the call? BBRY simply isn't selling enough phones at a high enough margin? Everything else is window-dressing if the platform doesn't ramp quicker than it currently appears to be.
    07-01-13 12:32 PM
  8. silversun10's Avatar
    Terrible terrible article. He's getting way too personal and it affects his focus / credibility.

    First he goes out on a rant criticising BlackBerry for launching the Z10 first.. how BBM going cross platform will result in a write-down of Z10s on the balance sheet because the salespeople can no longer sell the device since nobody buys it for peek/flow/hub but only buy it for BBM?! Are you kidding me? I feel insulted.

    So now that the Z10 has ruined Q10s chances.. he calls for Thorsten to step down for claiming 'a tablet is not a good business proposal'. Except he claims that the chances of the A10 selling well is close to 0 in the A10 thread on CB... so not quite sure which side he's on.

    Posted via CB10
    By demanding TH should step down he sorta can claim he was right all along, if only TH would not have "dropped" the ball. How come nobody is talking about all these Fortune 500 companies that are about to switch to BB10? Everybody stressing the negatives of TH's call and forgetting the positives and then claim TH was negative on the call, yeah tough to win if you are TH.
    _dimi_ likes this.
    07-01-13 12:35 PM
  9. cgk's Avatar
    By demanding TH should step down he sorta can claim he was right all along, if only TH would not have "dropped" the ball. How come nobody is talking about all these Fortune 500 companies that are about to switch to BB10? Everybody stressing the negatives of TH's call and forgetting the positives and then claim TH was negative on the call, yeah tough to win if you are TH.
    Aren't they actually switching to BES10 - which in itself does not indicate widespread adoption of BB10?
    07-01-13 12:39 PM
  10. Nindia's Avatar
    This might sound ******** to most of you, but the lack of the following two native applications on BB10 is hurting their sales heavily in the teeny-bopper category:

    Instagram
    SnapChat

    BlackBerry was always known as a business device. It was never marketed towards the every day person (or teens) until celebrities made BlackBerry cool in that category by using them. Those few years was when BlackBerry really became the "thing to have". I personally don't even think BlackBerry was expecting the success they achieved.

    What I feel like they lost sight of was that their balance sheet was heavily reliant now on this crowd of consumers that weren't even in the corporate world. BlackBerry was stuck in a difficult spot...either cater to their core clientele and remain all about security and enterprise functionality, or evolve into a phone for the general consumer and keep printing money.

    Maybe they underestimated how many of their users don't care about security or enterprise features...but BB10, as much as I love it, should have been in the hands of consumers at least a year earlier than it did.

    Anyway, going back to my original point...if BlackBerry wants people to switch back, knock on some doors and offer large incentives to have native apps developed for BB10. Not port-a-thons with thousands of meaningless apps.

    I think they're really underestimating how much people care about these social networking applications. I personally have heard many times from people in their early to mid twenties (the demographic that I feel like switches up to the latest phones more than others) say that they'd try it if it had "this" or "that" app on it.

    My rant for the day.
    07-01-13 12:39 PM
  11. lcjr's Avatar
    Oh god, it's $10.20.
    You may not want to watch the stock this week. Maybe not even next week. I'm thinking about not even looking until September again, because that's when I think/hope the SP will be in a better position.
    07-01-13 12:42 PM
  12. cgk's Avatar
    Out of interest, what was the stock price when Heins took over?
    07-01-13 12:45 PM
  13. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I understand what you are saying. But most families here are looking at Cell phones for their kids who stay home alone, drive, go to the movies etc. They want cool phones with cool features, at a good price. Right now that Android mostly. For alot of them that dont have phones its the iPod touch cause it has instagram. Sorry BB will not take that market nor make headway there at least in the US

    Edit: on a side note it will be a cold day in hell before my kids get phones before they are driving. Even then they will only have emergency minutes no data and NO texting. End parental rant
    And I wish you luck (with your edit statement) sir lol

    Posted via CB10
    lcjr, bungaboy, Bugmapper and 1 others like this.
    07-01-13 12:46 PM
  14. dusdal's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-uk.jpg

    I was becoming a little concerned because we hadn't seen any indication to date that there was any significant uptake in the UK. Despite the fact that they saw both launches before Canada, where the uptrend is significant since June 2.

    The last data point there is the first day of this week. Finally a significant upswing in data from the UK.

    This OS is dependent on word of mouth and thus will lag launches by varying degrees. If the US sees similar adoption pattern we should see these data points occuring very late July or early August.

    This is almost an exact replica of the data seen in Canada.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 12:46 PM
  15. lcjr's Avatar
    This might sound ******** to most of you, but the lack of the following two native applications on BB10 is hurting their sales heavily in the teeny-bopper category:

    Instagram
    SnapChat

    BlackBerry was always known as a business device. It was never marketed towards the every day person (or teens) until celebrities made BlackBerry cool in that category by using them. Those few years was when BlackBerry really became the "thing to have". I personally don't even think BlackBerry was expecting the success they achieved.

    What I feel like they lost sight of was that their balance sheet was heavily reliant now on this crowd of consumers that weren't even in the corporate world. BlackBerry was stuck in a difficult spot...either cater to their core clientele and remain all about security and enterprise functionality, or evolve into a phone for the general consumer and keep printing money.

    Maybe they underestimated how many of their users don't care about security or enterprise features...but BB10, as much as I love it, should have been in the hands of consumers at least a year earlier than it did.

    Anyway, going back to my original point...if BlackBerry wants people to switch back, knock on some doors and offer large incentives to have native apps developed for BB10. Not port-a-thons with thousands of meaningless apps.

    I think they're really underestimating how much people care about these social networking applications. I personally have heard many times from people in their early to mid twenties (the demographic that I feel like switches up to the latest phones more than others) say that they'd try it if it had "this" or "that" app on it.

    My rant for the day.
    Well Instagram is supposed to be coming "eventually" for BB10 according to their own CEO.

    BlackBerryOS.com - Instagram CEO: BlackBerry App Is Coming... Eventually
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 12:48 PM
  16. lcjr's Avatar
    Out of interest, what was the stock price when Heins took over?
    TH took over as CEO in January 2012 and the SP was $14.84 - $17.24 through January 2012.
    07-01-13 12:53 PM
  17. Nindia's Avatar
    Well Instagram is supposed to be coming "eventually" for BB10 according to their own CEO.

    BlackBerryOS.com - Instagram CEO: BlackBerry App Is Coming... Eventually
    Come on....really?

    They've been saying Instagram will be out for BB10 since the day the Z10 launched. Even CrackBerry Kevin promised to give away a car if it didn't happen...then the back-pedalling began when he was proved to be wrong.

    For a company that is trying to fight it's way back, all they seem to be doing is making excuses.

    Now I know Instagram has to make the application, but I'm sure there is some sort of incentive BlackBerry could've offered to light a fire under their a$$es in order have it ready for around their launch date.

    I don't know what the hell they're paying Alicia Keys, but all of that money should've been spent on incentivizing app creation from the big app makers. It would've been money WAY BETTER spent.
    crackerdoodle and Korepab like this.
    07-01-13 12:55 PM
  18. lcjr's Avatar
    Come on....really?

    They've been saying Instagram will be out for BB10 since the day the Z10 launched. Even CrackBerry Kevin promised to give away a car if it didn't happen...then the back-pedalling began when he was proved to be wrong.

    For a company that is trying to fight it's way back, all they seem to be doing is making excuses.

    Now I know Instagram has to make the application, but I'm sure there is some sort of incentive BlackBerry could've offered to light a fire under their a$$es in order have it ready for around their launch date.

    I don't know what the hell they're paying Alicia Keys, but all of that money should've been spent on incentivizing app creation from the big app makers. It would've been money WAY BETTER spent.
    Just saying it's SUPPOSED to be coming. At least this time their CEO said it. What else can somebody say?
    07-01-13 12:57 PM
  19. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Honestly, I'm not trying to pick on you at all. In fact I welcome the additional data points.

    But that Kantar report is YoY data.
    Here it April's next to May.
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-kantar.jpg

    Small improvement in Germany, decline in France, decline in UK, big jump in Italy, non-existent in Spain, static overall in Europe at 2.5% market share.

    Static in USA at 0.7% share, down in China, up slightly in Australia, and we cant say anything about Mexico and Japan.
    07-01-13 12:58 PM
  20. JonCBK's Avatar
    All this MDM and M2M is very interesting but the real problem is that it is not ramping quick enough to offset the declining headset market - which gets a bit tricky for BBRY - do they spend cash to prop up the handset or doubling-down on the software side, they don't have a particularly large cash pot (not for the sector) so something has to give.
    Comparing cash pot to other companies isn't quite the correct way to look at things. You need to compare it to costs. $3 billion is more than Apple has until recently spent on its entire R&D. Assuming the Q10 and Q5 are both at least decently margined phones and they will cell at least as well as the Z10 (and I think everyone is expecting them to sell better), then BBRY really should have no cash issues for at least another nine months.
    07-01-13 01:01 PM
  21. dusdal's Avatar
    Here it April's next to May.
    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	kantar.jpg 
Views:	375 
Size:	58.0 KB 
ID:	177907

    Small improvement in Germany, decline in France, decline in UK, big jump in Italy, non-existent in Spain, static overall in Europe at 2.5% market share.

    Static in USA at 0.7% share, down in China, up slightly in Australia, and we cant say anything about Mexico and Japan.
    Its' still YoY.......

    You just posted Apr 12 - to Apr 13.

    This suffers from exactly the same shortcomings of May 12-May13 except it's slightly worse because BB10 is out for even less time.
    morganplus8 and bungaboy like this.
    07-01-13 01:03 PM
  22. anon1727506's Avatar
    By demanding TH should step down he sorta can claim he was right all along, if only TH would not have "dropped" the ball. How come nobody is talking about all these Fortune 500 companies that are about to switch to BB10? Everybody stressing the negatives of TH's call and forgetting the positives and then claim TH was negative on the call, yeah tough to win if you are TH.
    Do you know of some Fortune 500 companies that are switches to BES10 and BB10 devices?

    The couple of non-Fortune 500 companies that I know of that were once BlackBerry shop's are still waiting before doing a switch. Most of them only have a few devices that are eligible for upgrades, so they have time to evaluating their options. Now if BES could have been upgraded to BES10 instead of requiring a separate program and another server, allowing for a seamless upgrade.... things might have been much different.

    Price is another problem right now with BB10 devices - business tend to go for the lower price points - either a Curve or older Bold.

    If I were an IT guy at a Fortune 500 company right now, I'd be a little worried recommending that we invested in the BB10 platform. I'd want to wait at least another quarter to see if things improve.
    07-01-13 01:04 PM
  23. morganplus8's Avatar
    Terrible terrible article. He's getting way too personal and it affects his focus / credibility.

    First he goes out on a rant criticising BlackBerry for launching the Z10 first.. how BBM going cross platform will result in a write-down of Z10s on the balance sheet because the salespeople can no longer sell the device since nobody buys it for peek/flow/hub but only buy it for BBM?! Are you kidding me? I feel insulted.

    So now that the Z10 has ruined Q10s chances.. he calls for Thorsten to step down for claiming 'a tablet is not a good business proposal'. Except he claims that the chances of the A10 selling well is close to 0 in the A10 thread on CB... so not quite sure which side he's on.

    Posted via CB10
    He is clearly hurt by the whole experience. Not much of what he states is likely true but he needs to get this off his chest as he had so much positive influence on the investment. We were all believing in his channel checks at that time, big deal, he needs to regroup, stop taking it personally, and do better research and reporting than he produced today. I don't hold anything against him.
    rarsen, jxnb, bungaboy and 2 others like this.
    07-01-13 01:06 PM
  24. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    Its' still YoY.......

    You just posted Apr 12 - to Apr 13.

    This suffers from exactly the same shortcomings of May 12-May13 except it's slightly worse because BB10 is out for even less time.
    No its not. I know its small, but there is column for April 2013 and May 2013.
    07-01-13 01:10 PM
  25. dusdal's Avatar
    Anectodal of course: Full disclosure we are only around 500 employees.

    My shop has upgraded to BES10 over the past three months. Middle management and up has been receiving Z10 and Q10.

    The field staff will be keeping their BB7 and lower curves for the time being. I would expect them to be upgraded when a lower cost BB10 phone is available.
    07-01-13 01:11 PM
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