View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. OMGitworks's Avatar
    A bearish article worth reading

    http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?...ticle_readmore

    Posted via CB10
    They really point out the perception becoming reality point. BBRY has to get their image and momentum back or they are done. Nobody wants to go down with the ship.

    We need a sense of urgency or else we will burn cash and be in serious trouble. Come on Thor, let's see that you get it and get your collective a$$es in gear and NOW.
    06-30-13 10:28 PM
  2. dusdal's Avatar
    Actually Kantar's numbers have proven remarkably accurate when correlated with IDC gave Windows Phone 6% market share in Europe in Q1 2013, just like Kantar, and said RIM had less than 5% market share in Europe (Kantar said 2.7%)
    The Western European Mobile Phone Market Declines in 1Q13, Driven by the Smartphone Slowdown, says IDC - prUK24197413

    So where the two cross over there is very good correlation.

    Before the 28th people claimed Kantar's numbers for RIM's market share in US could not be right. I assume that has changed now.

    I see a lot of TA in this thread, but very little analysis of all the actual sales data available, with everyone saying wait for the quarterly results. There's not a single thread on the recent Comscore numbers for example. I think we saw the result of that.
    That 'recent' sales data you are referring to is quite far in the past. I believe they just reported on the end of April figures.

    It's rear-view mirror when we know very well that much of any turn around is happening now, not before BB10 release into significant markets.

    The globalstatcounter is the only current 'data' of any sort that I am aware of. The large uptick that is seen on the Canada graph takes place the week after last quarter numbers closed.

    Unless you know of other current data. I would love to see it on this thread as well
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-30-13 10:53 PM
  3. jimmychen17's Avatar
    I have read many useful analysis on bbry in this forum, including technical analysis and various other way of looking at valuation of BlackBerry. However, and I apologise if I missed it somewhere, I have yet to see an in depth discussion on bb's competitive advantage. I found this old video of Steve Jobs ' shortly after he returned to Apple to save the sinking ship, take a look:



    I think Steve not only was good at computers and seeing how to get apple innovate again, he had a very clear vision of identifying Apple 's Competitive Advantage :namely the education sector and the Apple brand. I can't help but see so many parallels between Apple then and BlackBerry today.

    What is BlackBerry's competitive advantage?

    I think it is the BlackBerry brand which means security and busy people who want to succeed and its enterprise solutions.

    Everything else is pretty much worthless.

    This is where I need help from other experts on this forum: what is BlackBerry's competitive advantage in the enterprise market.

    Are there alternatives to BES? Can ActiveSync be the answer for the regular small and medium sized enterprises whose security is mot that big of a concern?

    I think unless we can figure out what BES is worth there's no point looking at charts or dream about short squeeze. The business will worth what the company can earn in its expected lifetime and that will be BES 10 at $99 a year - question is how many and how sustained this earning power is.


    Sent from my BlackBerry 10 smartphone on the Bell network.


    Posted via CB10
    06-30-13 10:58 PM
  4. dusdal's Avatar
    I think all that can be argued, specifically for enterprise is: NOC, Security (whether real or perceived) and Industry Experience.
    06-30-13 11:08 PM
  5. m1a1mg's Avatar
    I'm not a statistician by any measure. Heck Probability and Statistics kicked my **** in college, but the StatCounter stuff sometimes makes no sense. Here is Feb-Jun 2013 Mobile Operating System. It shows BBRY actually going down minimally during the period.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-statcounter-mobile_os-us-monthly-201302-201306.jpg
    06-30-13 11:12 PM
  6. dusdal's Avatar
    ^^
    That sounds reasonable. Hopefully we see an uptick with the Q10 now released there.

    Keep in mind that both bb10 devices launched much later into the US than Canada. It seems to be a lagging uptake of the devices as opposed to a pent up demand 'pop'. The word of mouth advertising might prove more important than the flashy stuff.

    If the Canadian pattern holds at all in the US we should see the uptick maybe late July. If we don't see it I am going to start getting concerned.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    06-30-13 11:17 PM
  7. Kid Vibe's Avatar


    Kind of like the part when Steve Jobs states that the problem with Apple during the MId 90's was that the company believed that if Apple wanted to succeed, Microsoft had to fail. In reality, that was not the case... I feel many people, consumers especially feel this way about BB... My friends are always saying BB will fail because they think when I talk about success, it has to surpass Apple and Samsung...
    Last edited by Kid Vibe; 07-01-13 at 06:47 AM.
    06-30-13 11:22 PM
  8. Munchito1976's Avatar
    A bearish article worth reading

    http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?...ticle_readmore

    Posted via CB10
    I think the caution they outline certainly requires attention as an investor, but regardless of how they've done it, I'm still shocked that they've been able to increase their cash position consistently, while in parallel launching and rolling out a new platform globally (and supporting their legacy platform). If there is one bright spot here, it is that they are making the most of what they are bringing in. (perhaps one can argue that they saved a ton of money by not adverstising )

    Having said that, the article is correct in stating that they cannot sustain this trajectory, as margins are a certain to shrink on hardware and services (assuming continued BB07 defections). They really need BES10 with Android/iOS management to take off with enterprise to help offset the pressure on margins. Hopefully the new service streams they vaguely refer to come to fruition asap as well (BBM Money/Wallet?).

    The biggest thing I agree with in that article is the way BB has steered toward less transparency, and the evasiveness it displayed on the call. If there is one thing Wall St doesn't like, it's uncertainty, especially when you just missed consensus. They need to control the message.
    dusdal, psy fi, bungaboy and 3 others like this.
    06-30-13 11:35 PM
  9. potatoman3's Avatar
    Will Venezuela revenue be added to next quarters numbers? Or are they just "gone" forever as a footnote to this past quarter?
    07-01-13 01:24 AM
  10. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Will Venezuela revenue be added to next quarters numbers? Or are they just "gone" forever as a footnote to this past quarter?
    If they find a way to recover the 'lost' service fees from Q1 than they will. Under GAAP they were obligated to report these as a loss. On the conf call the CFO emphasised that they have a long standing (8yr) relationship with the Venezulean operators so I'm positive they will recover some - if not all - of the monies.

    I'll Google some more on the issue but it seems to be the Venezuelan government (?) blocking these (and many more) payments :-)

    If they recover the fees from their Venezuelan partners for Q1 and receive all of the fees for Q2 it should more than offset another decline in fees for Q2. It's the small things that make me happy nowadays :-)

    Posted via CB10
    peter9477 likes this.
    07-01-13 02:11 AM
  11. dusdal's Avatar
    CFO also said they had recovered 'some' of the fees as of the call and were trying to get the rest.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 02:33 AM
  12. sidhuk's Avatar
    A bearish article worth reading

    http://email.seekingalpha.com/track?...ticle_readmore

    Posted via CB10
    the best answer to this article.

    " The author clearly does not get how income tax refunds work on financial statements. IT refunds based from a previous IT receivable can be "one time" and not beneficial for the future. However, BBRY's IT refunds are not of that nature. BBRY's income tax refunds are due to refundable tax credits generated from Canada's SR&ED program.

    The research & patents that BBRY builds are generating IT refunds.

    More importantly - and this is where the author misses the point - BBRY has and will continue to generate significant income tax refunds. Perhaps in the US the only way to generate income tax refunds is by instalments and income tax assets (non-capital assets, differentiation between account depreciation and tax amortization, etc), however Canada's tax system allows companies that perform Scientific Research & Experimental Development (hence SR&ED), to generate significant and continuous tax assets which is pure cash generation.

    IMO, 3billion of patents created in Q1 means more than a billion in tax refunds (~35%).


    Readers should invest in companies that they understand how their balance sheets work."
    07-01-13 02:36 AM
  13. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    That 'recent' sales data you are referring to is quite far in the past. I believe they just reported on the end of April figures.
    It's rear-view mirror when we know very well that much of any turn around is happening now, not before BB10 release into significant markets.
    The globalstatcounter is the only current 'data' of any sort that I am aware of. The large uptick that is seen on the Canada graph takes place the week after last quarter numbers closed.
    Unless you know of other current data. I would love to see it on this thread as well
    Actually the most recent Comscore numbers are for May, so not that long ago.
    comScore Reports May 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc
    Given that there is strong evidence that the only source for "current data" is being manipulated clearly you are going to have to look at trends from reliable lagging data, like Comscore, Kantar, IDC and Gartner.
    07-01-13 02:36 AM
  14. dusdal's Avatar
    You keep saying that, but have no evidence of manipulation.

    Just as saying the analysts were lying manipulators didn't make it so, neither does saying global statcounter is.

    I will look at the May data you posted. Thanks

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 02:40 AM
  15. nquyen's Avatar
    If BlackBerry ever makes it through these tough times, or hell even if it fails, this single thread details hundreds of shareholders' highest and lowest points and all the interesting bits in between. I just want to thank each and every single one of you contributors to what at the time was merely a post and turned it into a source of wealth, news, and knowledge for new, long, and even prospective investors. I've learned a lot from you all (namely Morgan haha) and you guys have a certain gung-ho mentality that makes this 1469 page thread worth reading. Honestly it's been a journey! We'll see where one Mr. Heins takes BBRY, but as soon as the stock hits around 15 I'm cashing out. Best of luck to all of you!
    P.S I may keep a share or two just for that $100 party
    -Bryan
    dusdal, Kid Vibe, psy fi and 7 others like this.
    07-01-13 02:45 AM
  16. world traveler and former ceo's Avatar
    time to buy some shares at bargain low prices, I say .....
    07-01-13 02:51 AM
  17. dusdal's Avatar
    the best answer to this article.

    " The author clearly does not get how income tax refunds work on financial statements. IT refunds based from a previous IT receivable can be "one time" and not beneficial for the future. However, BBRY's IT refunds are not of that nature. BBRY's income tax refunds are due to refundable tax credits generated from Canada's SR&ED program.

    More importantly - and this is where the author misses the point - BBRY has and will continue to generate significant income tax refunds. Perhaps in the US the only way to generate income tax refunds is by instalments and income tax assets (non-capital assets, differentiation between account depreciation and tax amortization, etc), however Canada's tax system allows companies that perform Scientific Research & Experimental Development (hence SR&ED), to generate significant and continuous tax assets which is pure cash generation.

    Readers should invest in companies that they understand how their balance sheets work."
    I didn't know this. Thanks!

    Is this income tax recoverable each quarter or just annually?

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 03:02 AM
  18. sidhuk's Avatar
    I didn't know this. Thanks!

    Is this income tax recoverable each quarter or just annually?

    Posted via CB10
    it appears annually.
    here is the government of Canada link for full details
    Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) Tax Incentive Program
    Last edited by sidhuk; 07-01-13 at 03:26 AM.
    bungaboy, morganplus8 and dusdal like this.
    07-01-13 03:10 AM
  19. dusdal's Avatar
    Actually the most recent Comscore numbers are for May, so not that long ago.
    comScore Reports May 2013 U.S. Smartphone Subscriber Market Share - comScore, Inc
    Given that there is strong evidence that the only source for "current data" is being manipulated clearly you are going to have to look at trends from reliable lagging data, like Comscore, Kantar, IDC and Gartner.
    Gesig,

    If you look at the chart that M1a1mg posted above from global statcounter, it corroborates the figures that you are referring to from the other consultancies. It is the US and shows gradually falling market share right up until today.

    It also shows BlackBerry in third with Windows tracking alongside and below it.
    Same as the comscore data you posted.


    Does com score have any Canadian data for June?


    Perhaps that will match up as well.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy and morganplus8 like this.
    07-01-13 03:17 AM
  20. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    http://forums.crackberry.com/general...ml#post8740421

    I think there's a lot of valuable suggestions here. If you take them one by one, they look pretty obvious or even mandatory. But this is not the way business rules.
    Let me explain.

    When your are in a situation like BB was 2 years ago (make it 3), you have to set a strategy with different passing points and a tiny flexibility.
    Decisions made have to be executed sequentially and errors have to be assumed. With such a "plan", you have no time for tears and self criticism.
    This is a forced walk, where every minute converts to piles of $ spent. You have to consider this as a whole and barely can isolate nor prioritize one part of it once you've decided the relative weight (human resources, budgets, R&D, production and so on) of each segment. You can adapt, or make cosmetic changes, but you have to stick to the plan; you cannot fire then enroll nor position your brand as "keep moving" then bend it to "work, work, work". If you do so, you pretty go back to day zero. That BB can't afford.

    Globally, I believe they've succeed if we refer to T.H statement : 3-5 years recovery, starting with loyalists and enterprises. Moreover, they surely did more than keep the enterprise alive while their death was announced daily. We have to consider the perspective, not only look at the trendy financial mood: if ever they (the street) knew how to run a company as much as they know how to make money out of a company ... the success story list would be long. The street "I won't invest in BB" statement isn't anything but: "I won't make money with these shares". OK, they're right. For now. Sit the stock to the $12s and move along. Noise must be cleared somehow. Go back in the shadow is the best thing BBRY stock can dream of, as of date.

    BlackBerry went threw the plan, restructured the company (CORE), branded a new platform, feeded the app catalog and produced two devices. The brand has now (re-) gained some visibility (not that good in U.S though. I believe it's "on hold" due to delays).
    Ok, fair enough. This had - even in the bullest mind - only 30% chance to succeed. They beat estimates by 70%. But no reward; just an extra ball. That's the way it is. But one often forgets and the doom and gloom sells more paper than anything.

    So, if we want to go to black from "painted pink", what's missing ?
    Execution.
    Anyone who ever ran a company, even the smallest, knows this is the key. For BB, we must add a qualifier to this : speed.
    Speed of execution.
    You did certainly noticed how many times we heard CEx stating "we do not want to release something that is not polished to death". I call this the "PlayBook syndrome", and I do believe it's a valuable commitment to quality. At the same time, this nitpick obsession is a drag on growth : "The better is the good enemy".
    Nothing is ever perfect on day one, n.o.t.h.i.n.g. BB10 isn't, Z10 isn't, Q10 isn't, BES isn't. That's just the way it is.
    Look at the concurrence: when they release a first opus of a device or new OS, there's tons of glitches, bugs or just missing features. They just deal with that.

    So, the answer was almost in the OP title : Speed it up, a little should suffice.

    I believe the cash accumulation is not an "accident"; they could have spent much more and shine. Stock wouldn't be where it was pre-E.R. But they don't care about the stock price right now. It is part of the plan.
    I heard "massive investment in (fiscal year) 2014". I'm glad I did.

    Tank is full. Let's speed up full throttle now.
    Same player shoots again : Keep moving. Faster.
    Guys, I'm out for today (or such) under heavy work load.
    Keep civil and friendly and for the "cousins", enjoy your Day
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 07-01-13 at 04:38 AM.
    bungaboy and Shanerredflag like this.
    07-01-13 04:24 AM
  21. Gesig Boek's Avatar
    I've done the obvious and asked Statcounter to review their Canadian mobile data.
    peter9477 likes this.
    07-01-13 05:53 AM
  22. amoumni's Avatar
    Pre market $10.13 , are we seeing single digits today? Welcome $9
    07-01-13 06:07 AM
  23. plasmid_boy's Avatar

    I think Steve not only was good at computers and seeing how to get apple innovate again, he had a very clear vision of identifying Apple 's Competitive Advantage :namely the education sector and the Apple brand. I can't help but see so many parallels between Apple then and BlackBerry today.

    What is BlackBerry's competitive advantage?

    I think it is the BlackBerry brand which means security and busy people who want to succeed and its enterprise solutions.

    Everything else is pretty much worthless.

    Posted via CB10
    What you said plus the advantages that make QNX the OS of choice for embedded devices. A smartphone can be considered an embedded device I think.


    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 06:15 AM
  24. leafs123's Avatar
    Couple downgrades today. Sell from hold by Deutsche Bank and hold from buy by SocGen.

    Posted via CB10
    07-01-13 06:51 AM
  25. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    I'm expecting a rough week for the SP this week... Sucks balls. I'm down from my average of 14.70... It's my first time investing and I have yet to take a loss... BB needs to publish something positive.
    07-01-13 07:02 AM
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