[Scott Lefebvre]

Am I the only person here that is not that worried?

I'm with you, a little concerned but I think in a year or two this still has huge potential.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan; was the stock shorted as heavily in 2003 as well?

Hi JLagoon!

I laughed when I saw that chart and had to reproduce it myself to see if it was legit. It is! There is a textbook Head & Shoulders pattern that led to the eventual sell off over the past few years. She than shows the bounce off the support line and a short run before correcting back. According to that chart, we are completing that pull-back and that's why she sees a rally to $ 30 in the next 12 - 18 months. I really like the work here even if it is for such a long period.

Now to answer your question, I don't have a clue, I was opening up manufacturing plants all over the country and living in hotels for months at a time! (I can talk about hotels though.)

That is a very interesting chart that has absolutely nothing to do with what he is trying to say. Think macro chart patterns and micro thinking. I would send her a thank you letter if the stock resumes its climb above $ 15.00/shr in the months ahead. I have never seen anyone produce a 14-year chart before and make it work.

[morganplus8]

The Playbook was a financial disaster for BlackBerry and distracted them from their primary mission - making and selling phones. If it was the basis for classic RIM decisions like no native e-mail, limiting sales to existing BlackBerry customers, right as RIM was heading into the tank.

I am happy you like your Playbook. But it was a disaster.

Would anyone else like to paraphrase my work?

Not so quick there cowboy, the PB was the test device for all future QNX branded products. They did a lousy job of bringing it to market in every way possible .................................... LOL

Yes, the Playbook was a disaster. It was a bad idea too. The company lost money on it and that's why I own BlackBerry stock under $ 8.00/shr today. It's all a matter of perspective I guess. Oh yeah, I still think that tablet is excellent value for the money.

[slipstream89]

So morgan you are in agreement with the TA from Abigail Doolittle? I've never seen her before and I don't know her track record but I do see some bottoming here we are way overside, maybe we can get back up to $15 in a month or so?

[m1a1mg]

Here is some crazy TA for you!! She is right if you have the guts to hang in there. He is totally wrong, so ..............

Can BlackBerry Make A Rebound? | Talking Numbers - Yahoo! Finance

I didn't think either of them actually used many facts. Her anecdotal evidence for the Q10 is like something I would read on CB.

[JLagoon]

I tried to look further into TA. The stock formed an "island," after the similar drop on December 21, 2012. It took about half a month to linger, and break out. At the peak of the break out, it reached $18.32. If we draw the same line based on the last 2 peaks, before the recent drop with one month range, then the next peak is around $16.60. Another scenario based on symmetrical triangle continuation pattern is to drift further to $7 area! I will probably faint, when this happens.

I haven't factored the RSI, MACD, and other patterns. What do you think, Morgan?

Link about island formation: http://www.stock-trading-infocentre....formation.html

- Also, something to factor in is that in December going into January, we had the buzz of BB10 launch. Now, I don't know what buzz we have...
The chart:

[helopilot06]

So morgan you are in agreement with the TA from Abigail Doolittle? I've never seen her before and I don't know her track record but I do see some bottoming here we are way overside, maybe we can get back up to $15 in a month or so?

I think that's a bit optimistic personally unless some major news comes out that is fantastic lol

[amanciang]

Hi Blackberry...
Make a BlackBerry Communicator.


via CB10 w/ Z10. I drink HiOz.

[jon_stark_28]

I was quite taken back by what happened yesterday. I tried to stay away from here for a while but I only lasted a day ... lol I hope everyone is well today. I lost big yesterday as well.

[jon_stark_28]

I'm thinking the agm will set things right for us ... there's some announcements there to be had ... I agree we may go lower, ill buy more and then it's going to rise staedy to next quarter. Next quarter we'll see three phones in play, bbm, bes and much more ... maybe it was always Sept

[Shanerredflag]

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

So morgan you are in agreement with the TA from Abigail Doolittle? I've never seen her before and I don't know her track record but I do see some bottoming here we are way overside, maybe we can get back up to $15 in a month or so?

slipstream89!

I hope you saw my charts late last night where I argued that we had hit a bottom on this sell-off. If we concur then you might enjoy her chart here:



I should point out that this chart has been doctored to show a "scaled" or Logarithmic pattern so that we can see all of the trading inside the field area of the chart. This is a normal procedure and not some convoluted attack on the integrity of the use of TA! And so we can project forward from as far back as the first day the RIMM went public. When you look at the chart, you see the wedge formations, the channel that has been raising for 20 plus years, it all shows up in this chart. You can see the rally that ensues from this type of descending formation. Well, we have completed a second descending wedge formation and we popped out of it, and now we are dropping back to confirm the breakout. The next thing to see is the bottom formation and that comes from an exhaustion blow off in the price and volume of the stock. I feel this is happening right now, we have the blow-off, we are looking to confirm it on Monday, and, we should begin to rally off this level as new owners of the stock want to see gains ASAP. She states that we will have confirmation of a breakout when the stock makes a new 52 week high. This all projects over the next 6 - 10 months max. when you think about $ 30.00 plus price targets.

As for your question about the next 4 - 6 weeks or so, I can't tell you right now how high we will go from here. I mentioned I think we put in the low for this down cycle, I think we finish it off on Monday when the margin calls are fulfilled, and, I see us moving back up to $ 13.50/shr which is resistance for this first leg. When we can see further gains is not for me to say right now. We need to arrest the bad news and start the process of building the storyline again and I don't know if the company can produce this with their software releases and Q10/Q5 updates.

There are two things I would like to mention here that I don't think anyone has suggested yet:

1) We just completed a 3-month, 6-month, Fund Quarter, the funds have turfed out their losers and not bought anything to replace them yet. They have BBRY off the books when they report stock holdings to their investors now. This is part of the reason why BBRY did so poorly on Friday. The sell-off is part Funds dumping stock that looks bad on their statements, and, margin calls, along with heavy buyers taking up positions in the stock for the next powerful rally. All of this is done on the last day of the quarter so bad timing for BlackBerry there!

2) The Annual Meeting is just around the corner, the major point of an Annual Meeting isn't so that shareholders can ask questions of the management!! I know, crazy idea here, it is to vote in the next management team and set the pricing for their stock options for the balance of the year. Have you ever seen stock options set at high prices? NO!!!! They get the average of the previous 60 days of the stock price closes for the period. That's a huge incentive for them to shut-up and let the stock settle where it may. I would guess they will be getting millions of shares at less than $ 14.00/shr.. We need to review this to know what those numbers are going to look like .... and the Annual Report is your first stop for this information.

Hope this helps, I'll look at the near-term charts and see if I can find something in light of her idea that we are heading higher shortly. Thanks for asking.

[morganplus8]

So that you can see the concern with AAPL, here is the exact same chart for the same period:



If you look at where AAPL is today, you will see that it is breaking down from a 13 year uptrend line within an ascending wedge formation. This is very bearish chart pattern and worth watching whether it can return to trending higher. Of the two charts, you would be running for BBRY right now. Stay tuned!

[morganplus8]

I tried to look further into TA. The stock formed an "island," after the similar drop on December 21, 2012. It took about half a month to linger, and break out. At the peak of the break out, it reached $18.32. If we draw the same line based on the last 2 peaks, before the recent drop with one month range, then the next peak is around $16.60. Another scenario based on symmetrical triangle continuation pattern is to drift further to $7 area! I will probably faint, when this happens.

I haven't factored the RSI, MACD, and other patterns. What do you think, Morgan?

Link about island formation: Island Formation

- Also, something to factor in is that in December going into January, we had the buzz of BB10 launch. Now, I don't know what buzz we have...
The chart:

JLagoon,

Please look at my latest charts for my opinion. Yes, there is an outside chance they we can go lower here, down to $ 9.00/shr. Why I don't think it is in the cards is that we need to show strength here and failing to test even Friday's lows is very bullish. So we need to see what happens on Monday. Secondly, the December panic bottom occurs after the books are closed for the year, for all Funds. The volume isn't there and the commitment isn't there either. So I think the fact that we traded on the last day of a quarter for Funds is more important than the news itself. Funds simply dumped stock and may or may not buy it again later. Someone bought a pile of stock in NA on Friday and these new holders will push this higher to make money. Let's see how it plays out, I could be off here and we see Monday as having more selling after the first couple of hours. Someone will be there for the last of the margin calls and likely close it in the green. We'll see!

If you go back to a video that I posted regarding Ross Healy, when asked what to, do he states," we wait on the sidelines and see what develops". Sounds like he might have been a Fund that sold out on Friday. We'll see in time as he reports his status.

[sparkaction]

JLagoon,
Someone bought a pile of stock in NA on Friday and these new holders will push this higher to make money. Let's see how it plays out, I could be off here and we see Monday as having more selling after the first couple of hours. Someone will be there for the last of the margin calls and likely close it in the green. We'll see!

If you go back to a video that I posted regarding Ross Healy, when asked what to, do he states," we wait on the sidelines and see what develops". Sounds like he might have been a Fund that sold out on Friday. We'll see in time as he reports his status.

Hi M+8

How do you know that there was a buyer in NA buying a pile of stock? Could the data that you have only be an indication that a larger short position was just been covered and there were no new longs buying significant blocks?

Thanks

[peter9477]

Yeah, it's the same argument as saying that if the real estate market tanks and the house you have a $350,000 mortgage on is suddenly worth $265,000 it's only a 'paper' loss unless you sell your house. It means you are trapped in that house for an extra 10 years before you can retire and downsize, or whatever your life plans are. That 'paper' loss has 'real world' effects.

Clearly how you take all this depends on what your investment horizon was.

We bought our house ten years ago, expecting to be in it for at least twenty years.

I bought my BBRY stock expecting to hold it well past yesterday, pretty much regardless of the results. (If there had been good news and a short squeeze, obviously I would have tried to tap into that a bit, since I would expect it to stay high, but that's beside the point.)

In neither case does the paper loss impact my life in any manner remotely like an actual cash loss of the same size. It's simply not the same thing.

Unless you were actually a short-term investor, or had bought too much on margin. Then I feel for you, but that was your choice to either expect to realize a profit so soon, or to over-leverage.

[Jahcure]

This is just my opinion, but I believe this stock will get back to the high teens within a year or less. Even if another company decides to buy it, i think prem will make sure it's bought out where he at least breaks even. if I remember correctly he bought it when it was around 16-17. he also believes the company will be worth $40 and i think the software/enterprise side is why he believes that .

Looking at fridays report blackberry has a jekyll and Hyde thing going on within the company. the hardware side does not have a clue on execution and goals, while the software side does. Example of the software side having a vision is bbm going to other platforms and recovering the money using bbm channels and maybe bbm money. Then we have mdm and secure works. I can see why misek is so bullish, but the execution of bb10 launch also shows why so many are on the shorts side.


Posted via CB10

[JLagoon]

Posted via CB10

So, that is a possible line of assurance with Prem Watsa. I hope, "he bangs on the board table" to bring the stock to, at least, book value.

[sparkaction]

Just wondering what people were think would be required for bbry to move higher? Change in management? Maybe the willingness to explorer the adoption of Android OS (say the consumer division = DROID ; business division = bb10).

Other ideas.

[take99]

'Tphedgegroup will go silent until July 10th 2013. Contact [email protected] for specific questions.'

So either these guys were paid schills or they lost their shirts on Friday.

[chrysaurora]

Just wondering what people were think would be required for bbry to move higher? Change in management? Maybe the willingness to explorer the adoption of Android OS (say the consumer division = DROID ; business division = bb10).

Other ideas.

Creating positive word-of-mouth and buzz is what will drive BBRY higher. It's not that hard. I have said this many many times before. BlackBerry just needs to LISTEN to it's paying customers. Customers and fans come to this site and create posts after posts, spelling it out for BlackBerry, what they want. Yet BlackBerry does not prioritize customer feedback.

All BlackBerry needs to do is this -
1. Scour CrackBerry forums for user's feature requests and bug reports
2. Make a list of top 25 to top 50 MOST REQUESTED features
3. Deliver them < 30 days intervals. Maybe deliver top 20 in 30 days, 21-50 in another 30 days

If they do that, they will make existing customers (and fans) very very happy. And then existing customers WILL SELL LIKE HELL!

And when we sell like hell, revenue, profit and stock price will follow!

[peter9477]

Just wondering what people were think would be required for bbry to move higher? Change in management? Maybe the willingness to explorer the adoption of Android OS (say the consumer division = DROID ; business division = bb10).

One quarter during which the Q10 is shipping for most of it.

Oh look! That's this quarter!

Oh yeah... and it has to sell decently too. For that to happen, they'll at least need to get that vaunted marketing spend going. I haven't heard from folks in the US that there's really any appreciable marketing presence there yet. Without that, I don't see this quarter going well either. Sadly, these things aren't going to sell themselves.

[JLagoon]

I sent a few e-mails to [email protected] in the past few days, including a link to this thread, telling them to read the feedback from us. I encourage you to send them ideas, feedback, complaints, etc.

[sparkaction]

Creating positive word-of-mouth and buzz is what will drive BBRY higher. It's not that hard. I have said this many many times before. BlackBerry just needs to LISTEN to it's paying customers. Customers and fans come to this site and create posts after posts, spelling it out for BlackBerry, what they want. Yet BlackBerry does not prioritize customer feedback.

All BlackBerry needs to do is this -
1. Scour CrackBerry forums for user's feature requests and bug reports
2. Make a list of top 25 to top 50 MOST REQUESTED features
3. Deliver them < 30 days intervals. Maybe deliver top 20 in 30 days, 21-50 in another 30 days

If they do that, they will make existing customers (and fans) very very happy. And then existing customers WILL SELL LIKE HELL!

And when we sell like hell, revenue, profit and stock price will follow!

Thanks for your reply. The only problem I am having is that BlackBerry 's management has said that they are "laser focused". To me this means focused execution and delivering on promises (under promising and over delivering), this has not happened to date. Time lines have been vague (ie "by the end of summer) and execution has not been flawless. For a company fighting to survive, these elements are critical IMO.

Disclosure - I am long bbry and pissed on the same issues Chris Uni discussed in the most recent CB podcast.

[lcjr]

It would be interesting to know if BB even looks into this forum to see what we are feeling and thinking. If not, where are they getting their customer feedback from, besides their website?

Also, I wonder if he actually looked in here to see the reaction the the ER.