View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Robert Halloran's Avatar
    Well I thought I would go over my guestimates:

    Cash on Hand - $ 3.1 Billion (Correct)
    Core Program Still in Effect - (Correct)
    Subs - 72MM down from 76MM = 4MM (2MM are from Venezuela so a drop of 2MM from other sources (Close - off by 500,000)
    BB10 Phones 2.7 MM (Off by a Whopping 2.8 M phones - terrible)
    BB07 Phones 4.1 MM (Off by a Whopping 600,000 phones - not good news, but saved some subs)
    Revenues $ 3.1 B versus my $ 4.3 B - (2.8MM BB-10 phones X $ 485/phone in lost revenues missing this quarter)
    EPS = $ .13/shr With $ .10/shr Venezuela, some minor issues and 2.8MM BB-10 x $ 140/phone did not materialize)
    Sell-Through = ????? No numbers or percentages given here
    Inventory Build = $ 300 (Correct)

    From what I can see, the only factor that killed my forecast is the amount of BB-10 phones sold. All other points are met but the sales number for my model was way off. I have to concede that I felt Heins was promoting BB-10 in a big way and I listened too much to Misek and others who felt channel checks were firm. Having lost that potential amount of phone sales is very concerning indeed. I have to think that the balance of the year is needed to get this ship back on track now. They need the A10, a partnership and to get BES10 and BBM out there ASAP. The Web call was terrible, not for reasons as to what was said, but what wasn't stated. Even Misek had nothing to offer, he seemed deflated by the news.

    Now for the stock, we won't post a chart at this time because charting works when both sides are ready to do battle. At this moment, shorts are selling, longs are selling and margin calls are coming so TA isn't going to deal with all of that nonsense for a few days. The support of the stock will now come from it core value which I think is around $ 12.00/shr.. So today we will trade at a discount to core value until the selling subsides. I do see the stock returning to $ 12.00/shr later on. For those of you who own the stock, I would suggest waiting for a bounce to the $ 12.00 mark and writing some Sept Calls against the position and get some premium while we wait. As many of you have suggested, the story is now going to play out much longer than planned. If we don't believe that handsets are the future for BlackBerry, we need to see contracts like the DoD to build a case for higher stock pricing here. With $ 6.00/shr in cash, it has been pointed out that everything else worth at least $ 6.00/shr which is very fair. The company also becomes a buy out candidate at these levels so there is the possibility of a partnership or complete buyout today. With such huge cash flow, the buyout could come from Prem for all I know, it is possible to see something happen in this light. Try to sit this out for a couple of days knowing that the analysts targets are coming down and the media will be all over this. The only number that I can see that sucked was the handset sales for BB-10.

    That's my ramblings for now, I have to listen to that Webcast again to get more details out of it.
    I am stunned by the low sales numbers! As much confidence as I had...the rising shorts were freaking me out. wow.
    06-28-13 09:21 AM
  2. Nindia's Avatar
    If there is one thing I know it's that the little 'ol Venezuala thing is almost completely insignificant. a side show.
    Yep. It's a valid excuse, but an excuse nonetheless.
    06-28-13 09:22 AM
  3. spiller's Avatar
    STEER CLEAR OF THE PLAYBOOK FORUMS..... LMAO
    You don't agree? The Z10 had 2GB. With a few open apps I have 546MB free.
    lcjr likes this.
    06-28-13 09:24 AM
  4. morlock_man's Avatar
    Hey Morgan...

    In reference to BB10 devices sold, what do you think about the fact that Q1 is traditionally a slow sales time for new phones?
    06-28-13 09:25 AM
  5. nquyen's Avatar
    My 1500 shares are hurting and I can't do anything about it, terrible feeling.
    take99 likes this.
    06-28-13 09:25 AM
  6. morganplus8's Avatar
    Morgan can you see a bounce back to $12ish next week?
    Barring any other news, I think we can pop back to $ 12.00/shr after today. The vast majority of the volume occurs in the first hour, we then see some buying come into the stock as the hard assets looks good down here. For all I know, there are those who are waiting to get into the trade precisely after something like this so we could see a strong snap back here. Watch the volume, we are already light on volume at the moment, compared to the first hour. Short covering will send it up briefly before they pull their bids so today isn't the best day to expect a big pop. Its coming, some good news like the DoD would help greatly here.
    06-28-13 09:27 AM
  7. Nindia's Avatar
    Hey Morgan...

    In reference to BB10 devices sold, what do you think about the fact that Q1 is traditionally a slow sales time for new phones?
    Coupling that with the fact that most people that stuck with BlackBerry over the years weren't exactly waiting for a touchscreen BlackBerry I think next quarter should be much better.

    If September doesn't impress or at least shine some light on BlackBerry's future, then I will be walking away.
    06-28-13 09:27 AM
  8. tiziano27's Avatar
    2.7 million BB10 units shipped, that could be 1.7-1.95 million sell out. 560k-650k units per month. This was supposed to be the strong quarter because of the pent up demand.
    It's not easy to sell BB10 to governments and companies with those numbers. Probably the smartphone market is over for BlackBerry, they have to concentrate on the services.
    06-28-13 09:28 AM
  9. Randeman's Avatar
    Some sex would be good right about now.
    We all just had it. And, as the video said, we never got kissed first.
    Charles Martin1 and bungaboy like this.
    06-28-13 09:28 AM
  10. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    The downgrades haven't come yet. More downside to come I believe.
    lcjr and Geeoff like this.
    06-28-13 09:28 AM
  11. rocdynasty's Avatar
    Hey Morgan...

    In reference to BB10 devices sold, what do you think about the fact that Q1 is traditionally a slow sales time for new phones?
    i would think that analyst would take that into consideration when having expectations for this Q call
    06-28-13 09:28 AM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    You don't agree? The Z10 had 2GB. With a few open apps I have 546MB free.
    Oh I'm not saying it would have done well on the PB. I had the same thoughts as you regarding RAM. I'm just saying it's not going to be a very happy place. lol Not that we are but they have been quite angry there over the last few months and today they will be over the top.
    lcjr and bungaboy like this.
    06-28-13 09:29 AM
  13. Bilaal's Avatar
    I sure could do with a joint right now.

    Posted via CB10
    06-28-13 09:30 AM
  14. slipstream89's Avatar
    The pent up demand was for Q10 which has not been for sale for a full quarter and also has not been released in all markets. Waiting for septer ER

    2.7 million BB10 units shipped, that could be 1.7-1.95 million sell out. 560k-650k units per month. This was supposed to be the strong quarter because of the pent up demand.
    It's not easy to sell BB10 to governments and companies with those numbers. Probably the smartphone market is over for BlackBerry, they have to concentrate on the services.
    06-28-13 09:30 AM
  15. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    We all just had it. And, as the video said, we never got kissed first.
    Or after! LOL
    cjcampbell, lcjr and bungaboy like this.
    06-28-13 09:30 AM
  16. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Barring any other news, I think we can pop back to $ 12.00/shr after today. The vast majority of the volume occurs in the first hour, we then see some buying come into the stock as the hard assets looks good down here. For all I know, there are those who are waiting to get into the trade precisely after something like this so we could see a strong snap back here. Watch the volume, we are already light on volume at the moment, compared to the first hour. Short covering will send it up briefly before they pull their bids so today isn't the best day to expect a big pop. Its coming, some good news like the DoD would help greatly here.
    What about downgrades? They must be sure to come.
    06-28-13 09:31 AM
  17. morganplus8's Avatar
    I am stunned by the low sales numbers! As much confidence as I had...the rising shorts were freaking me out. wow.
    I was hoping for 5.5 MM and would have been very happy with 4.0 MM using that end of quarter 1 MM hardware contract as my guide. Didn't expect this at all. You could argue that not launching in more areas sooner, killed their chance of hitting street estimates but that doesn't help us now. Because of the 2.7 MM sales number, we are now a $ 12.00/shr company until they deliver on the software side. The Venezuelan loss of 2 MM subs didn't help either. So now they project $ 800 MM for Enterprise with single digit losses for Q2, not good either. The stock has bottomed out here but there is no lift at all for now. Thanks
    06-28-13 09:36 AM
  18. Mr.Conviviality's Avatar
    chalk it up to experience.

    Never felt a 5 figure loss like this so quickly.

    I'm still long at this point, pipe dream or not.
    Bugmapper and fedakd like this.
    06-28-13 09:38 AM
  19. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    I was hoping for 5.5 MM and would have been very happy with 4.0 MM using that end of quarter 1 MM hardware contract as my guide. Didn't expect this at all. You could argue that not launching in more areas sooner, killed their chance of hitting street estimates but that doesn't help us now. Because of the 2.7 MM sales number, we are now a $ 12.00/shr company until they deliver on the software side. The Venezuelan loss of 2 MM subs didn't help either. So now they project $ 800 MM for Enterprise with single digit losses for Q2, not good either. The stock has bottomed out here but there is no lift at all for now. Thanks
    I am concerned that there hasn't been a rebound yet. I think many may be waiting to see if there is another shoe to fall.

    I think we should expect to see a lot more volatility to come back into the stock.
    06-28-13 09:39 AM
  20. morlock_man's Avatar
    i would think that analyst would take that into consideration when having expectations for this Q call
    Hard to say though. Samsung just posted a record quarter, but they're pushing devices with a lower gross margin, which means they're more likely prepaid burners than contract phones.

    BlackBerry users are usually tied into a contract due to the higher value of the phone. If Q1 is not a time when people are buying phones, the summer buying season, the fall school season and the holiday buying season are the most likely times when contracts will start to expire and existing users can upgrade without penalty.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    06-28-13 09:40 AM
  21. W Hoa's Avatar
    And then we have this:

    In BlackBerry’s fiscal 1st quarter, the company’s cash position grew from $2.9 billion at the end of the last quarter to $3.1 billion. That’s almost $6.00 per share. In fact, according to Capital IQ, BlackBerry’s pile of cash has never been bigger. This is not a typical characteristic of a company that is facing imminent death.

    Contributing to the cash build was BlackBerry’s solid free cash generation in the quarter. With operating cash flow of $630 million and capital expenditures of just $83 million, $547 million of free cash was produced.

    And this was not an anomaly. In last year’s first quarter $558 million of free cash was generated and in fiscal 2013, this metric totalled to almost $1.9 billion. Again, such prodigious free cash flow is not an indication of a company for whom the bell tolls.

    Given BlackBerry’s market cap is currently about $5.6 billion (and falling by the second), this ability to produce about $2 billion/year in free cash gives it a free cash yield of an almost unheard of 35%.
    06-28-13 09:40 AM
  22. drummer_god's Avatar
    This quarter did not include Q10 sales, correct?
    The Z10 was not available in many countries in this quarter, correct?
    morganplus8 likes this.
    06-28-13 09:41 AM
  23. BThunderW's Avatar
    Well, like I said. My target was 4M units. They haven't met it. I'm doing a small play on a bounce in calls, but will be closing my position over time
    RHDJEEZY likes this.
    06-28-13 09:42 AM
  24. psy fi's Avatar
    I wonder if Misek will revise his price target down.
    06-28-13 09:43 AM
  25. spiller's Avatar
    I keep reminding myself it is only a "loss on paper".

    It smarts for sure.

    And I have NO ONE to blame but myself.

    So I am giving self a stern reprimand and staying long.
    Can't anyone take an investment loss as what is is - a loss? An educated one at that. There were longs and shorts. I lost 27% of my ALL IN on blackberry total life savings (my only stock holding) on the drop today (Thunder - beat your loss BTW...). I'm OK with that - because I was taking an educated risk on this investment. It could have went the other way, and we certainly all hoped it would, but this is not free money. Just like the people with huge investments in real estate property in Canada will soon find out. And you wouldn't be telling yourself you were stupid, or need a reprimand, or whatever. I thought downside risk was 15% today, but the numbers just blew more than I could imagine, by FAR. So we're at 27% down. Perhaps we'll see some buyers (as in buy-OUT) line up now knowing that blackberry is hurting at this point more than they wanted to be. It's gotta be worth $15-20 on a buyout.

    I think by end of next week we'll be sitting around $12.
    06-28-13 09:43 AM
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