[rebekahlynnharrison]

oh that's a big ouch. sorry I was trying to reference kid's post but somehow missed
the quotation button. Gahhh
One of those days.

[Nindia]

Anyone else like that the cash reserves increased $200 million.
I generally am more focused on cash flow from operations than EPS, though EPS is easier to talk about because that number is more out there.
A company that has a "bad" quarter and still finishes up $200 million in cash isn't doing all that badly.

Cash is king! I agree

[morganplus8]

I think I want to look foolish and publish my stats for tomorrow's Q1 report:

So here goes!

- Cash last quarter was $ 2.946 billion, I see that going up by $ 200 million
- Core Program ends in Q1 with a total of $ 1.5 billion in savings helping to push cash higher
- Subs are down by 1.5 million unless Thor comes out with the new formula for calculating BlackBerry customers in which case, we are higher by 1 million
- BB 10 phones - 5.5 million
- BB-07 phones - 3.5 million
- Revenues at $ 4.3 billion
- EPS including additional tax incentives at .60/shr
- Sell Through of phones at 8.0 units
- Inventory build of $ 300 million

Highlights will include more talk about partnerships
More product launches and BB 10.2

Finally the stock has huge support at $ 13.50/shr and a breakout at $ 16.25/shr - I say we end strong on the upside if Heins changes the way BB reports subs tomorrow.

That's it! Good night and good luck everyone!!

Well I thought I would go over my guestimates:

Cash on Hand - $ 3.1 Billion (Correct)
Core Program Still in Effect - (Correct)
Subs - 72MM down from 76MM = 4MM (2MM are from Venezuela so a drop of 2MM from other sources (Close - off by 500,000)
BB10 Phones 2.7 MM (Off by a Whopping 2.8 M phones - terrible)
BB07 Phones 4.1 MM (Off by a Whopping 600,000 phones - not good news, but saved some subs)
Revenues $ 3.1 B versus my $ 4.3 B - (2.8MM BB-10 phones X $ 485/phone in lost revenues missing this quarter)
EPS = $ .13/shr With $ .10/shr Venezuela, some minor issues and 2.8MM BB-10 x $ 140/phone did not materialize)
Sell-Through = ????? No numbers or percentages given here
Inventory Build = $ 300MM (Correct)

From what I can see, the only factor that killed my forecast is the amount of BB-10 phones sold. All other points are met but the sales number for my model was way off. I have to concede that I felt Heins was promoting BB-10 in a big way and I listened too much to Misek and others who felt channel checks were firm. Having lost that potential amount of phone sales is very concerning indeed. I have to think that the balance of the year is needed to get this ship back on track now. They need the A10, a partnership and to get BES10 and BBM out there ASAP. The Web call was terrible, not for reasons as to what was said, but what wasn't stated. Even Misek had nothing to offer, he seemed deflated by the news.

Now for the stock, we won't post a chart at this time because charting works when both sides are ready to do battle. At this moment, shorts are selling, longs are selling and margin calls are coming so TA isn't going to deal with all of that nonsense for a few days. The support of the stock will now come from it core value which I think is around $ 12.00/shr.. So today we will trade at a discount to core value until the selling subsides. I do see the stock returning to $ 12.00/shr later on. For those of you who own the stock, I would suggest waiting for a bounce to the $ 12.00 mark and writing some Sept Calls against the position and get some premium while we wait. As many of you have suggested, the story is now going to play out much longer than planned. If we don't believe that handsets are the future for BlackBerry, we need to see contracts like the DoD to build a case for higher stock pricing here. With $ 6.00/shr in cash, it has been pointed out that everything else worth at least $ 6.00/shr which is very fair. The company also becomes a buy out candidate at these levels so there is the possibility of a partnership or complete buyout today. With such huge cash flow, the buyout could come from Prem for all I know, it is possible to see something happen in this light. Try to sit this out for a couple of days knowing that the analysts targets are coming down and the media will be all over this. The only number that I can see that sucked was the handset sales for BB-10.

That's my ramblings for now, I have to listen to that Webcast again to get more details out of it.

[cjcampbell]

I'm not panicking at all and I think I'm holding a significant amount more than most people in this thread. I've always said I'll hold until 2014.

My only regret in regards to today was checking my phone when I went to take a whizz in the middle of the night and seeing all the SeekingAlpha emails flooding my inbox in regards to the earnings results.

Couldn't sleep after that! Lol

I hope you were sitting to pee.. hahaha

[hkkelvinlee]

Is a close above 12$ wishful thinking?

Posted via CB10

Probably....sigh....

Posted via CB10

[YangFui]

So, is the $100 party cancelled?

Not if we start thinking in terms of Italian Lire.

[jrwb6e]

They are firmly committed to the new platform but it is not firmly planted yet. It's been 5 months since it launched and it still hasn't reached all of their markets yet. I have great perspective on this. I am pissed with the numbers and call but take away the window dressings and this sell off is a huge overreaction. They are fundamentally sound. Aside from an entire market not paying up on their ******* fees, they would have come in on their previous guidance... more or less.

True. The Venezuela fiasco really hurt the bottom line, but the 2.7 million (est.) BB 10s that were sold were under expectations.

[sparkaction]

Anyone else like that the cash reserves increased $200 million.
I generally am more focused on cash flow from operations than EPS, though EPS is easier to talk about because that number is more out there.
A company that has a "bad" quarter and still finishes up $200 million in cash isn't doing all that badly.

Don't forget that some of that cash increase was due to working capital adjustments. WC adjustments is not a viable long term story.

[matthewriedle]

I sold all for 11.15 tsx. ugly loss to take. But when I saw 9this morning it was unbearable so even if we climbed back abit ill take 11.15 over 9 any day.

LOL
At least you are honest! lol

[kfh227]

Has anyone calculated free cash flow?

Cash from ops minus cap ex

Posted via CB10

[Munchito1976]

The Web call was terrible, not for reasons as to what was said, but what wasn't stated. Even Misek had nothing to offer, he seemed deflated by the news.

This. I can't believe how bad these guys are with their communication to the market. It's terrible.

[kfh227]

Atleast I sold some of my holding off yesterday. Little did I know that I should have bought insurance (puts)

Posted via CB10

[Bugmapper]

Good Morning Everyone!

OK... I've got my coffee in hand. Now, what did I miss?

[lcjr]

I have no doubt Blackberry will succeed and IS the turn-around company we've been investing in. My concerns rest on their methodology regarding media campaigns, responses to slander, and keeping share holders informed. Many feel the company doesn't need to address these issues, but here we are today because of that thinking. This stock is so shorted it's not even funny anymore, so letting the competition and those shorting the company have the upper hand is scaring away potential investors and customers. Doesn't do much good to have an awesome plan with awesome devices and software if you've painted a bad picture.

Ok, that's all I'll say on this. I'm holding and not messing with anything until after the SEP ER. If TH is still conducting PR like he does now and the stock isn't where I think it should be, I'll sell and be done. Until then, I'm here holding my mere 362 shares.

The End

[BlackistheBerry]

Some sex would be good right about now.

Didn't we just get screwed ?

[lcjr]

Some sex would be good right about now.

Lets go to VS. lol

[cjcampbell]

Some sex would be good right about now.

Please refer to my previously posted video... hahaha

[bungaboy]

Some sex would be good right about now.

Isn't that what we just had? LoL

[dusdal]

Good Morning Everyone!

OK... I've got my coffee in hand. Now, what did I miss?

Nothing much. Just a sunny Friday morning....

Posted via CB10

[take99]

Good Morning Everyone!

OK... I've got my coffee in hand. Now, what did I miss?

You missed thanking me for talking you off the ledge a month ago lol!

[georg22]

2.7 millions BB10 devices sold, so where will we be at the end of the year? 5 millions? 10 millions?

[Bugmapper]

You missed thanking me for talking you off the ledge a month ago lol!

Thank you!

[Tinomane]

Morgan can you see a bounce back to $12ish next week?

[matthewriedle]

True. The Venezuela fiasco really hurt the bottom line, but the 2.7 million (est.) BB 10s that were sold were under expectations.

If there is one thing I know it's that the little 'ol Venezuala thing is almost completely insignificant. a side show.

[MrBurns2U]

Good morning all. Well, I'm glad I'm looking at the September ER because TH did it again this morning. He's a real smart man, but they need to get somebody else to do their talking for them. He's going to hurt their efforts to be the turn-around company they want to be.

Anyways, if you're holding, then you haven't lost anything. Give them at least another quarter or two.

When Blackerry can push out some kick *** numbers then nothing Thor can say should matter. The numbers aren't good. I don't think there was much he could say. Not sugar coating is ok in my book. Just get the ship sailing in the wind please!!