View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1107. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Noted with caution. Thanks a lot for your time.

    Posted via CB10
    Again, very welcome Do not hesitate to ask anything related to BBRY here, many can explain with simple words.
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-25-13 11:41 AM
  2. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Fortune 500 companies have cash. If they aren't trialling BES by now I'd say 90% of those not trialling have already decided to go with another offering. JMHO.
    Or choose to stand on legacy devices until they get out of amortization period.
    When you deal with 100s K of devices, a global swap is never a snap affair.
    Let's mix these two assertions
    Bugmapper, lcjr, peter9477 and 1 others like this.
    06-25-13 11:43 AM
  3. spiller's Avatar
    If it was Gelblum's report, I'll respect it the most. His previous full BBRY report was stellar. Still a $22 target - but the numbers behind it were very well thought out. This guy has a PhD. Everyone should read it end to end.

    I hope he is low on BB10 units. I hope he is wrong on sub loss to 73M from 76M. I think he is slightly low on blended ASPs and slightly low on GMs. But these last two metrics fit his model of BB10 number at 3.5M not 4M+.

    Did Gelblum give a Q1 EPS forecast?
    bungaboy and Shanerredflag like this.
    06-25-13 11:47 AM
  4. dusdal's Avatar
    TH suggested that sub losses would be single digit percentages. This 'could' mean 9% losses which would total 6.84 Mln lost.

    Worst case, based on his guidance.
    Shanerredflag and Compaqee like this.
    06-25-13 11:50 AM
  5. kfh227's Avatar
    Ok... just to point out... I did say to beware the Koolaide stains.

    So, please correct me (I'm being serious here, as opposed to my first post which was purely for levity)

    You suggest that 11.4 billion in revenue is a realistic maximum. OK. then if we use that - would you not give that an 10X multiplier to guage the SP?

    $11,400,000,000 / 524,000,000 shares = $21.75 EPS boost (I know - it's not all profit)

    $21.75 EPS X 10 = $217.50 per share??

    Why would you use 1X revenue and not a higher multiplier?

    Not trying to be silly, just trying to see if we are talking about the same thing or have I made a terrible mistake (other than my ridiculous 75% market penetration number).
    It's just a ROM. Granted it's probably low. A percentage of those revs will go to fcf. I usually assume 10% of revenue but in this case it is probably higher. 20%+.

    Then I typically do 10x FCF. I just did a short handed estimate. But yes, 2x or 3x revenues could happen if 20% or 30% of revenue goes to FCF.

    Posted via CB10
    Shanerredflag and Bugmapper like this.
    06-25-13 11:54 AM
  6. spiller's Avatar
    Looked again at the WF forecast. $20 PT (from $19). But only $0.32 EPS for FULL YEAR 2014. And still at $20 PT.

    Yet some bears are forecasting higher EPS, and $10 PT.

    TH - it's time to leave them behind licking their wounds. Big guidance baby. BIG.
    06-25-13 11:54 AM
  7. take99's Avatar
    Who is this guy, the latest paid schill? Why does he get any press from Barrons when they don't mention Scotia or Morgan Stanley?

    On a more skeptical note, Cowen & Co’s Matthew Hoffman reiterates an Underperform rating and a $9 price target
    06-25-13 11:55 AM
  8. spiller's Avatar
    TH suggested that sub losses would be single digit percentages. This 'could' mean 9% losses which would total 6.84 Mln lost.

    Worst case, based on his guidance.
    True. Most of the data available is indicating -4M to +1M. Let's meet half way and round up
    06-25-13 11:56 AM
  9. spiller's Avatar
    Who is this guy, the latest paid schill? Why does he get any press from Barrons when they don't mention Scotia or Morgan Stanley?

    On a more skeptical note, Cowen & Co’s Matthew Hoffman reiterates an Underperform rating and a $9 price target
    Never heard of him. Don't care. Gus P and Gelblum and Um and even Misek have been covering BBRY for a while, and they aren't small shops.
    06-25-13 11:57 AM
  10. dusdal's Avatar
    ^^

    haha deal.
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-25-13 11:58 AM
  11. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Anyone else looking to jump in??? I bumped my bid to 14.90 TSX and looks like we are dipping so hopefully ill scoop 100 shares this afternoon!!!!
    Compaqee, bungaboy and Bugmapper like this.
    06-25-13 11:59 AM
  12. kfh227's Avatar
    Fortune 500 companies have cash. If they aren't trialling BES by now I'd say 90% of those not trialling have already decided to go with another offering. JMHO.
    Or it's not in this year's fiscal budget.

    Posted via CB10
    06-25-13 12:03 PM
  13. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Ok now I'm at 14.92 FINAL offer hahaah. Heading back to work and I don't like trading the close. Looks like all the stocks I follow are green. Guess ill miss my chance
    06-25-13 12:08 PM
  14. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    I forgot that today is short report day....

    CJ.... Go on....

    Posted via CB10
    06-25-13 12:10 PM
  15. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Fair ? ...
    Quick Take: How To Trade BlackBerry - TheStreet

    [...] Conversely, with the stock trading in the mid-$14 range, there is substantial support and accumulation in mid-$13 to $14 range, he said.
    Redler added that if BlackBerry impresses investors, the stock will likely move quickly to the upside. Over $15 and shorts will be nervous. Over $16 and they may be forced to cover, which would really drive the stock higher, he said.

    However, the stock was trading in the single digits not all that long ago, meaning that disappointing figures coupled with high short interest could drive the stock down rather quickly.
    According to Redler, the best way to play the stock to the upside before earnings would be with a call spread, where traders buy a lower strike call option and sell a higher strike call option to reduce risk, while still participating in an upward move.
    He concluded that using options will limit the trader's risk to the premium paid. Whether you trade it before earnings or not, one thing is for certain: BlackBerry will be active on Friday.
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 06-25-13 at 12:23 PM.
    cjcampbell and bungaboy like this.
    06-25-13 12:10 PM
  16. matthewriedle's Avatar
    Or it's not in this year's fiscal budget.

    Posted via CB10
    Yeah, but who cares? 60% is awesome! We will be making money off non-BB devices. We were not doing that with BIS.
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    06-25-13 12:10 PM
  17. Compaqee's Avatar
    [QUOTE=lcjr;8707685]
    So to throw the conversation in a slightly different direction I'd like to ask a few questions to all you good folk.

    Do you think many people on the fence are waiting for news on the Jelly Bean emulator? Are people waiting for Aristo? Are there any polls on current public opinion on BB?
    QUOTE]

    Yep, me. I was about to buy the Q10 and then saw that the A10 (or whatever it will be called) is about to come out. I'll wait it out and make a decision when I see all the options. Now, you're never going to keep up with technology unless you can afford to buy every new device that hits the market, so seeing the A10 is just around the corner I'll wait it out. If you can afford both, then getting one now and then the other later is also an option. Depends on your situation.
    I think that's how I plan to do that as well. Thanks for your input as always!
    lcjr likes this.
    06-25-13 12:11 PM
  18. cjcampbell's Avatar
    CJ.... Go on....

    Posted via CB10
    Wait until market closes......
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-25-13 12:14 PM
  19. Compaqee's Avatar
    I'm in the same boat as you as I was a long time BBRY user and unfortunately I'm still using a 2 years old S2 phone. I'm not the average user but love to mod, root and use custom ROM all that to preserve battery usage and get more life out of a old phone. I also can't stand the bloated stock rom. I do get what your saying too as I'm very used to widgets and like the idea of able to see information without having to drill in and out of the apps. I will say that android came a long way, took them a few years to have a mature usable OS. however, security as we all know is an big issue and i'm getting tired of having to mod and use custom rom to just to keep my phone in shape let alone wait for provider or developer to come out with bug fix or upgrade on known issues.

    This is where BBRY/QNX comes in. I dont think lack of apps is really an issue anymore. There may be apps that your using that isnt available yet but with BBOS become more and more mature by day and the world see that users are coming back, the popular one will eventually be made available sooner or later.

    I'm holding out for A10 not that Z10 or Q10 arent good but I like a bigger screen phone period and to be honest I can't wait to get my hands on the Aristo as soon as it is made available.

    *LONGBBRY*
    Appreciate the long response. That's exactly how I feel right now. Glad I'm not alone. The best thing is though, I feel many of my colleagues and friends are on the fence as well with this same mentality which means BB is still in the game.

    I believe with the emulator in 10.2 to bridge the ecosystems in the meantime will buy enough time for native apps to fill the void. Then we'll have the best of both worlds in BB with both BB10 apps & Android apps.

    Truly excited and glad that competition is beginning to rechallenge the mobile tech giants. *See iOS 7 and their BB OS implementations*

    lcjr likes this.
    06-25-13 12:15 PM
  20. take99's Avatar
    06-25-13 12:18 PM
  21. spiller's Avatar
    Looks like the shorts are using almost the rest of their ammo today....meaning rest of the float shortable.

    I think we will trend smoothly higher into the close from here.
    jxnb likes this.
    06-25-13 12:19 PM
  22. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    CJ, hit that cowbell hard !
    cjcampbell, lcjr, bungaboy and 2 others like this.
    06-25-13 12:19 PM
  23. Compaqee's Avatar
    Anyone else looking to jump in??? I bumped my bid to 14.90 TSX and looks like we are dipping so hopefully ill scoop 100 shares this afternoon!!!!
    Already maxed out, I've closed a couple other positions and got in 200 additional shares @ around 14.10 mark a little while ago.

    Cheers!
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-25-13 12:19 PM
  24. take99's Avatar
    Gelblum is modeling total revenue of $3.09 billion, below the consensus for $3.38 billion, and EPS of 2 cents, below the Street’s average 5-cent estimate, and down from his prior estimate of $3.38 billion and 5 cents.
    06-25-13 12:24 PM
  25. morganplus8's Avatar
    First off, the commentator needs to have a make-over, she turned me off sex. I just want to make that clear.

    Secondly, he isn't offering much here, with all of the variables, a couple of data points aren't going to be enough. Yet, there is huge support at the 200-EMA, we have never closed below this number, it is currently at $ 13.60/shr and solid as a rock.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-june-25a-2013-chart.jpg

    Our blue line is following the 200-ema perfectly here. This chart explains what we need to do here, the down sloping line from the late April highs is currently at $ 14.75/shr, we need to break above this line. The next one is that of the pennant line, we need to blow threw $ 16.00/shr plus to begin a huge rally to the upside.

    The next chart:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-june-25b-2013-chart.jpg

    There might be a channel forming that gives us an idea of how the stock will be trading up from here. If the news is modestly positive, we are likely to climb higher slowly, like this channel indicates.

    As for today, I bought more this morning, we are killing time right in here as the trading day is 6 1/2 hours long. Look to firm on the close.
    06-25-13 12:26 PM
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