View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. morganplus8's Avatar
    I agree with this. If the shorts have it their way on Friday, I can see this bottoming at lowest 12. I can't see the ER being so bad as to have the downside break through $12. That is a 15-17% hit. But upside could be UP TO 30% from here short term

    MORGAN - what can you reaslistically see as a bottom if BBRY states .03 EPS and loses 4M subs? but with 3.5M BB10 and 3M BB7 sell in.
    We would need to see some more numbers to know how they only earned $ .03/shr on that many handsets. The subs number is a real negative, thus we need BBRY to report all customers and not just BB customers for this Q. Your 3.5 million handsets would produce at least $ .15/shr and I think BB7 will surprise here and not be such a drain on the total sales, but at a cost. No one really knows what are the "good numbers" because all of the bears are rising their targets so quickly.

    I see earnings and unit sales much higher with Enterprise surprising us. There are so many variables in play here that those numbers could be outstanding. Support for the stock is still $ 13.50/shr until the company fails to deliver.

    Here is a chart of this morning trading:

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-june-23c-2013-chart.jpg

    As you can see, the last time we broke the green line after seeing the stock price retreat for 6 weeks, we went right back up to the short-term downtrend line or resistance. This time around, we broke above the green line early this morning and now we are killing time waiting for the market to move along here. We have tested and broken through the 5-ema but not the 7-dma, we are now sitting just under the 5-ema and resting up for another run here. Everything is in place for a pop to $ 14.75/shr, where we go after that is anybody's guess! Great day so far.
    06-24-13 10:58 AM
  2. spiller's Avatar
    From that standpoint, I can see why, but I'd like to see it move up towards and near the top downtrend line. If we beat by a lot, it will be easy to break out of the pennant and rally high..... if we disappoint, there's room to fall without destroying the formation to the downside.
    THIS ^^^^^^

    I am aligned with.
    06-24-13 10:59 AM
  3. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    06-24-13 11:00 AM
  4. greggebhardt's Avatar
    I think, and I agree, that Greg is throwing caution to those reading the thread that might not be as involved as the regulars on here. Let's not start throwing .50+ EPS around like it's a certainty. Do your own due diligence.

    I believe it will be higher. It's my own educated kool-aid mix
    I agree with you and think it will be higher!

    Just reminding everyone that it CAN go either way!
    06-24-13 11:05 AM
  5. spiller's Avatar
    We would need to see some more numbers to know how they only earned $ .03/shr on that many handsets. The subs number is a real negative, thus we need BBRY to report all customers and not just BB customers for this Q. Your 3.5 million handsets would produce at least $ .15/shr and I think BB7 will surprise here and not be such a drain on the total sales, but at a cost. No one really knows what are the "good numbers" because all of the bears are rising their targets so quickly.

    I see earnings and unit sales much higher with Enterprise surprising us. There are so many variables in play here that those numbers could be outstanding. Support for the stock is still $ 13.50/shr until the company fails to deliver.

    Here is a chart of this morning trading:

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	RIM June 23c  2013 Chart.jpg 
Views:	644 
Size:	88.3 KB 
ID:	175537

    As you can see, the last time we broke the green line after seeing the stock price retreat for 6 weeks, we went right back up to the short-term downtrend line or resistance. This time around, we broke above the green line early this morning and now we are killing time waiting for the market to move along here. We have tested and broken through the 5-ema but not the 7-dma, we are now sitting just under the 5-ema and resting up for another run here. Everything is in place for a pop to $ 14.75/shr, where we go after that is anybody's guess! Great day so far.
    Thanks. I was throwing out what I see as the worst case unit sales and just throwing out the street est EPS. $13.00-13.50 support on a report that just 'meets' would be grand. So I only see upside.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    06-24-13 11:06 AM
  6. The Selected Fruit's Avatar
    If we disappoint? Go and wash your mouth out with soap!!

    From that standpoint, I can see why, but I'd like to see it move up towards and near the top downtrend line. If we beat by a lot, it will be easy to break out of the pennant and rally high..... if we disappoint, there's room to fall without destroying the formation to the downside.
    06-24-13 11:09 AM
  7. spiller's Avatar
    Q5 sim free now available in the UK.

    Maybe Blackberry launched early so they can give solid guidance for Q2 with close to one month of sales records...including some Q5 sales. One hopes

    Bear thesis is they launched early because BB7 sales dropped off the cliff from 6.6M sell through to 2-3M sell in in Q1
    06-24-13 11:12 AM
  8. cjcampbell's Avatar
    If we disappoint? Go and wash you mouth out with soap!!
    LOL... I meant if there are too many little things for the bears to grasp on to. Having that cushion below would allow for a reaction sell off without doing too much damage before reality sets in and logic takes hold to take us back up.
    06-24-13 11:12 AM
  9. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Just asking everyone to stop drinking the "Blackberry Koolaid" by around Wednesday so that you go into the ER on Friday with a "clear head"!
    It can go either way!
    This E.R won't rocket us to the moon. If positive enough, it'll could fire the stock to the $20s range.
    A trader will then surely take the money and I won't blame anyone to do the same, being to buy back on hypothetic dump or just enjoy his gain.
    But if you rewind 1357 pages back, you'll notice that it's a trust affair. A set it and forget it one (I can't forget, due to this thread activity lol).
    a $100 range will result in ~ $35,000 benefit, that's really a beauty.
    a $20 range will result in ~ $2,600 ... well, after two years or such, even ~ +50% performance won't be enough for me to sell.

    No koolaid required.
    Remind the plan, check the passing points, enjoy the unattended good news and move on.

    Cheers
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 06-24-13 at 12:00 PM. Reason: sorry, used future instead of conditional ... moooohhhh
    06-24-13 11:14 AM
  10. greggebhardt's Avatar
    This E.R won't rocket us to the moon. If positive enough, it'll could fire the stock to the $20s range.
    A trader will then surely take the money and I won't blame anyone to do the same, being to buy back on hypothetic dump or just enjoy his gain.
    But if you rewind 1357 pages back, you'll notice that it's a trust affair. A set it and forget it one (I can't forget, due to this thread activity lol).
    a $100 range will result in ~ $35,000 benefit, that's really a beauty.
    a $20 range will result in ~ $2,600 ... well, after two years or such, even ~ +50% performance won't be enough for me to sell.

    No koolaid required.
    Remind the plan, check the passing points, enjoy the unattended good news and move on.

    Cheers
    This IS the thread of all threads for sure. If we shoot to the $20 range, I will be as happy of a camper as is allowed by law!
    06-24-13 11:23 AM
  11. Bacon Munchers's Avatar
    Superfly: FYI, your avatar alone gives me hope!

    To all, the excitement is surreal!

    ... I'm buckling my chin-strap, just in case....

    Posted via CB10
    matthewriedle and Superfly_FR like this.
    06-24-13 11:25 AM
  12. ibpluto's Avatar
    Question:

    Lets say we do get a squeeze in the future. How long could it last?
    06-24-13 11:29 AM
  13. spiller's Avatar
    Even if BBRY counts all devices on BES 10 as subs...I don't see millions of droids and iOS devices on BES 10 yet.

    I think they WILL include these as subs - because they ARE adding to service revenue. How many devices can we guess for that? Misek has 1 that we know of
    06-24-13 11:31 AM
  14. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Superfly: FYI, your avatar alone gives me hope!
    To all, the excitement is surreal!
    ... I'm buckling my chin-strap, just in case....
    Posted via CB10
    That's groooovvvvay !
    06-24-13 11:59 AM
  15. YangFui's Avatar
    Even if BBRY counts all devices on BES 10 as subs...I don't see millions of droids and iOS devices on BES 10 yet.

    I think they WILL include these as subs - because they ARE adding to service revenue. How many devices can we guess for that? Misek has 1 that we know of
    According to investor relations at Blackberry, non-Blackberry BYOD devices (such as iPhone and Android-powered phones) are not included in the subscriber count. The count applies only to Blackberry-branded devices.
    Bugmapper, rarsen, q649 and 10 others like this.
    06-24-13 11:59 AM
  16. Bugmapper's Avatar
    06-24-13 12:02 PM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    According to investor relations at Blackberry, non-Blackberry BYOD devices (such as iPhone and Android-powered phones) are not included in the subscriber count. The count applies only to Blackberry-branded devices.
    Hope they will separate (in the future, too early now) BB and non-BB devices for CAL revenues in the BES subscriptions $$ ... what a glorious marketing achievement if when numbers will be high !
    06-24-13 12:04 PM
  18. lcjr's Avatar
    Question:

    Lets say we do get a squeeze in the future. How long could it last?
    We would need numbers and other data before we could make a guess. Volkswagon peaked and immediately fell back, but TEASLA is still enjoying a higher SP after several weeks. It's just hard to make an educated guess without current numbers.
    fedakd and bungaboy like this.
    06-24-13 12:27 PM
  19. morganplus8's Avatar
    According to investor relations at Blackberry, non-Blackberry BYOD devices (such as iPhone and Android-powered phones) are not included in the subscriber count. The count applies only to Blackberry-branded devices.
    Heins stated they are going to a blended formula for the future. That incudes anyone who is a potential customer of BlackBerry, the numbers will be growing rapidly under that scenario.
    06-24-13 12:29 PM
  20. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Heins stated they are going to a blended formula for the future. That incudes anyone who is a potential customer of BlackBerry, the numbers will be growing rapidly under that scenario.
    The question now becomes will that also include subs of the cross platform BBM?
    morganplus8 likes this.
    06-24-13 12:32 PM
  21. fedakd's Avatar
    I've never been a big fan of Mondays, but after seeing the DOW Red and BBRY Green, I'm starting to warm up to them.

    Perhaps our short friends are getting a little nervous already? I know I'd be
    06-24-13 12:33 PM
  22. rebekahlynnharrison's Avatar
    Liking the slow consistency of the rise today. Nice and steady.
    06-24-13 12:33 PM
  23. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Gee, you make it sound like if you are not long then you are part of the problem! LOL!
    I guess I am part of the problem and sold today at $14.15 and then repurchased at $13.94. Sorry for being part of the problem, but it works quite well! ($1365 net)

    Taking "advantage" is what made the market what it is today!

    Your comments and others like them are what makes me mention the "Blackberry Koolaid"!
    No, I have no problems with day traders. I tried it myself, but did a terrible job at it.
    Never said that if you are not long then you're a problem. But if you're a day trader and by doing so causes big swings in the SP, then it would be annoying to people that support the company and watching realtime (but that's ok).
    Never said that it's wrong to take advantage of a situation.
    Lastly, I hope you understood that my comment about the party on private island was a joke. LOL
    Cheers!
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-24-13 12:33 PM
  24. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Shhh... don't tell the bears.... bullish engulfing candle.....
    06-24-13 12:37 PM
  25. Bilaal's Avatar
    Pardon me if this has already been answered, but is a short squeeze possible following Fridays earning call? Could it be they announce a partnership with Sony?

    Posted via CB10
    06-24-13 12:42 PM
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