View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. peter9477's Avatar
    Maybe it's because TD lent out your shares, and now that you want to sell them you can't.
    That couldn't apply to me, as I don't have a margin account, and in any case I already received my proxy forms and voted for the AGM.

    I am with TD. Currently I have limit sell order (GTC) set at $120 for BBRY.
    If I like, I could set it at $1 million/share.
    Do you have a margin account? Or are you placing your orders by phone? Perhaps that's the difference. I'm doing it online and definitely have a limit to my limit. When I try a value more than $28.87 (99% higher than last trade price) it says "Your limit price may be too far off the current market price. Please re-enter or contact your local TD Waterhouse office for assistance.[60101]"

    I would assume a phoned-in order would not have such a limit imposed.
    q649 likes this.
    06-20-13 11:04 AM
  2. peter9477's Avatar
    I was out much of the morning and not paying attention, but I just heard the update on the Fed etc, and checked the markets, and have to say Wow, BBRY is actually doing pretty well so far today, considering.

    Red, schmed, this is still a good day for us. Everything is relative.
    06-20-13 11:12 AM
  3. take99's Avatar
    http://m.barrons.com/articles/i/BL-TB-40119

    BBRY: FYQ1 Set to Blow Away Consensus, Says Jefferies; Upside Possible, Says Evercore
    By Tiernan Ray
    The Street today continues to ponder what to expect from BlackBerry‘s (BBRY) fiscal Q1 report for the period ending in May, which is expected to be disclosed on June 28th before market open.
    Following a couple of negative notes yesterday, including a downgrade to Underperform by Bernstein Research’s Pierre Ferragu, Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek today makes the bull case, reiterating a Buy rating and a $22 price target, writing that his “checks,” as well as results last night from contract electronics manufacturer Jabil Circuit (JBL), suggest to him the company will blow away Street consensus, perhaps delivering $4.1 billion in revenue and 50 cents profit per share versus the current consensus of $3.39 billion and a 5 cent profit.
    Misek writes that Jabil’s report of 15% sales growth, year over year, in the May-ending period for its “high velocity” manufacturing segment is a good tell for BlackBerry results:
    We believe Jabil and Wistron are the two main manufacturers of BBRY’s BB10 handsets. Last night Jabil reported strong results in its May Q for its High Velocity segment, which we believe to be primarily sales to BlackBerry: 24% Y/Y (+13% guidance), +34% Q/Q. Aug Q segment guidance of +15% Y/Y (implies -4% Q/Q) is solid and we expect substantial upside. Wistron reported revenues for the month of May of +16% M/M and +21% Y/Y. While BBRY is a ramping customer for Wistron, it was less than 10% of Wistron’s revenues in 2012 with most of Wistron’s business from notebooks, which are quite weak. Wistron’s notebook ODM peers reported May sales of 0% M/M and -7% Y/Y, highlighting Wistron’s outperformance.
    His own inquiries in the supply chain suggest production of the recently introduced Z10 and Q10 smartphones, based on BlackBerry’s BB10 software, is tracking higher than would be implied by Street estimates:
    We believe BB10 build plans continue at 2M+ per month vs. St 3M+ shipments in the May and Aug Q and vs. our est of 4M for each Q. We think that will offset May Q BB7 handsets potentially being 2M-3M vs. our 4M est and subscribers falling by 5M.
    Lastly, Misek writes that inquiries with stores suggest any impression there is currently high inventory of BB10 devices is incorrect:
    We surveyed hundreds of Orange, Vodafone, and EE stores in the U.K. to determine inventory levels for the Z10 and the Q10. For the Z10, we found only 3% of stores to have 5+ units in stock, 78% of stores had 1-4 devices on hand, and 19% of stores were out of stock. For the Q10, we found 19% of stores to have 5+ units in stock, 79% of stores had between 1-4 devices on hand, and 2% of stores were out of stock. We find recent reports mentioning large inventory levels to be inconsistent with our checks.
    In a somewhat different vein, Evercore Partners’s Mark McKechnie late last night reiterated an Underweight rating on BlackBerry shares, and an $8 price target, writing that the company will probably deliver $3.52 billion and 6 cents profit, and writing that there’s likely to be an outsized reaction from a Street divided: “The street is clearly mixed on the stock, with 8 Buys, 13 Neutrals and 19 sells, so we’d expect a fairly volatile reaction to the report.”
    McKechnie thinks the August and November quarters will offer more insight about the “follow-through demand for traction for BlackBerry beyond their existing footprint.”
    Nevertheless, he sees a “strong” Q1, and expects an upbeat outlook for Q2:
    We would not be surprised to see $0.10+ in EPS with device units and gross margins and service ARPU the key drivers. Key metrics in our forecast include: 1) $2.5B in device sales based on total device units of 8.1 with 3.5 from BB10, and blended ASP of $305, 2) $959M in recurring service & software sales based on a 1.5M decline in subscribers for 75M ending subscribers, 3) 39.7% corporate gross margins based on 27.8% for devices split between BB10 at 35% and legacy at 14%, and 85% for services, and 4) $1.35B in opex up from $1.06B last quarter on higher launch costs. Break-even or better guide for August. We expect an optimistic guide for August, with vague quantification for break-even or better on continued channel fill amidst heavy marketing spend. We forecast ($0.01) on $3.2B vs. consensus of $0.14 on $3.3B based on 3.3M BB10 devices and 73.2M subscribers at quarter-end. Shares of BlackBerry are down 18 cents, or 1.3%, at $14.
    06-20-13 11:14 AM
  4. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Attempt number 2 to push through resistance and convert it into support.
    06-20-13 11:24 AM
  5. take99's Avatar
    Whats with evercore predicting profit for 2 quarters but leaving a target of $8?
    06-20-13 11:28 AM
  6. spiller's Avatar
    http://m.barrons.com/articles/i/BL-TB-40119

    perhaps delivering $4.1 billion in revenue and 50 cents profit per share versus the current consensus of $3.39 billion and a 5 cent profit.
    ......
    We think that will offset May Q BB7 handsets potentially being 2M-3M vs. our 4M est and subscribers falling by 5M.

    In a somewhat different vein, Evercore Partners’s Mark McKechnie late last night reiterated an Underweight rating on BlackBerry shares, and an $8 price target, writing that the company will probably deliver $3.52 billion and 6 cents profit, ......Nevertheless, he sees a “strong” Q1, and expects an upbeat outlook for Q2:
    We would not be surprised to see $0.10+ in EPS with device units and gross margins and service ARPU the key drivers. Key metrics in our forecast include: 1) $2.5B in device sales based on total device units of 8.1 with 3.5 from BB10, and blended ASP of $305, 2) $959M in recurring service & software sales based on a 1.5M decline in subscribers for 75M ending subscribers, 3) 39.7% corporate gross margins based on 27.8% for devices split between BB10 at 35% and legacy at 14%, and 85% for services, and 4) $1.35B in opex up from $1.06B last quarter on higher launch costs. Break-even or better guide for August. We expect an optimistic guide for August...., We forecast ($0.01) on $3.2B based on 3.3M BB10 devices and 73.2M subscribers at quarter-end. Shares of BlackBerry are down 18 cents, or 1.3%, at $14.
    Comments:

    Jefferies see an offset of 5M BB7 subs with 4+M BB10 devices. If they redefine 'sub' to include BB10 devices and breakeven at 76M subs, that is huge!

    Mark McKechnie makes my head hurt. He first puts Q1/14 EPS of .06. He says to expect a "strong Q1" with 3.5M BB10. Then says he would not be surprised at ESP .10+. Then he is expecting (0.01) EPS Q2/14 on 3.3B rev. and 3.3M BB10.

    Seriously? Q10 rollout in the US. Q5 global rollout starting NOW only 3 weeks into Q2. Expected ramp up in enterprise BES10.1 and BB10 upgrades. DoD orders. 3.3M? Obviously short or being paid to be short and continue the "initial pent up demand followed by dwindling sales" routine that the shorts will have to spout when the subs stay even! These guys should all lose their jobs because they SUCK. i'm not saying this a a long...I'm saying this as an Engineer (by education only) who could debate their own numbers / logic against them with only my pinky finger.

    I'm hoping those 'super bulls' hiding behind the 'bears' come out of hiding with Q1 report and squeeze this sh!te up!
    06-20-13 11:31 AM
  7. neteng1000's Avatar
    Thanks
    I like. I like. Place looks like it's packed.
    This is awesome. The phones don't even look like they tethered or locked down. With the crime rate at near 0%, why would you need to

    Posted via CB10
    06-20-13 11:34 AM
  8. spiller's Avatar
    Whats with evercore predicting profit for 2 quarters but leaving a target of $8?
    The same disease Faucette has with predicting 300K total BB10 units in Q1. Do they find these guys in the local mental institution? I guess if they will do whatever you tell them to do and they can claim mental incompetance it's actually a pretty smart move by the execs :P
    06-20-13 11:35 AM
  9. zyben's Avatar
    Whats with evercore predicting profit for 2 quarters but leaving a target of $8?
    The ever-changing company line for the shorts is now: Ok, ok, they're going to have a couple of good quarters, but after that they're dead!
    W Hoa, take99, cjcampbell and 4 others like this.
    06-20-13 11:36 AM
  10. La Emperor's Avatar
    From Evercore huh??

    $2.5B in device sales based on total device units of 8.1 with 3.5 from BB10, and blended ASP of $305....

    We're selling more non BB10. If you follow the math, it's 4.6M non BB10 to 3.5M BB10.... ???
    Last edited by La Emperor; 06-20-13 at 12:02 PM.
    BlackistheBerry and bungaboy like this.
    06-20-13 11:51 AM
  11. spiller's Avatar
    If a bear with an $8 target is predicting 8M device sales and 3.5M BB10 and only .06 EPS. National Bank has similar stuff...8M devices Q1 and maintains $10 PT.

    I'm getting more and more confident in the ER blowing away EPS, rev, GM, and even holding subs better than expected. And hopefully they hold cash at 2.5B +
    fedakd and bungaboy like this.
    06-20-13 11:57 AM
  12. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Holy cow! Here I am looking at used Jeep Wranglers so I can get to the better flyfishing spots once I move to Colorado. lol
    Hmmmm.... can't decide.... red blue or silver...

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-new-1.jpg
    lcjr, cjcampbell, fedakd and 7 others like this.
    06-20-13 11:58 AM
  13. La Emperor's Avatar
    From Evercore huh??

    $2.5B in device sales based on total device units of 8.1 with 3.5 from BB10, and blended ASP of $305....

    We're selling more non BB10. If you follow the math, it's 4.6M non BB10 to 3.5M BB10.... ???
    Blended ASP looks off and so is device Rev.

    I used the ff: and comes up with 2.67 B device Rev

    non BB10 4.6M X 200 ASP = 920M
    BB10 3.5M x 500 ASP = 1750M

    Total = 2.67B
    06-20-13 12:01 PM
  14. lcjr's Avatar
    Hmmmm.... can't decide.... red blue or silver...

    Click image for larger version. 

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    I think I'm in the wrong place here. lol
    06-20-13 12:02 PM
  15. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    Humm some really interesting short covering look a yesterday's chart
    Interactive Charts
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-20-13 12:03 PM
  16. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    This the short data type BBRY or BB to get the short volume
    Data
    Humm some really interesting short covering look a yesterday's chart
    Interactive Charts
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-20-13 12:08 PM
  17. Bugmapper's Avatar
    This the short data type BBRY or BB to get the short volume
    Data
    OK... I don't understand this. Any ticker symbol I type in gives a range of 40% to 60% short on any given day. Are they saying that all selling is short selling?

    Or that roughly 50% of all volume on the stock market is from short sellers?
    cjcampbell and bungaboy like this.
    06-20-13 12:13 PM
  18. q649's Avatar
    This the short data type BBRY or BB to get the short volume
    Data
    Yeah, I don't buy it. I find it beyond difficult to believe that the short interest would increase by 17% in one day (June 17-18). We barely even trade that many shares in one day.
    Bugmapper and cjcampbell like this.
    06-20-13 12:18 PM
  19. Robinson7D's Avatar
    OK... I don't understand this. Any ticker symbol I type in gives a range of 40% to 60% short on any given day. Are they saying that all selling is short selling?

    Or that roughly 50% of all volume on the stock market is from short sellers?
    Looks to me, judging from the second graph, like they consider any active sell (i.e. trade at the bid) a "short" and any buy (trade at the ask) a "long"... Not really relevant to actual shorting.
    Bugmapper, psy fi and bungaboy like this.
    06-20-13 12:19 PM
  20. Soumaila Somtore's Avatar
    My understanding is that there more long buying in and that will make the short more expensive.

    OK... I don't understand this. Any ticker symbol I type in gives a range of 40% to 60% short on any given day. Are they saying that all selling is short selling?

    Or that roughly 50% of all volume on the stock market is from short sellers?
    06-20-13 12:20 PM
  21. BBNation's Avatar
    here is interesting map to figure out twitts sent from different platforms by locations..

    Twitter + GNIP
    06-20-13 12:20 PM
  22. tiziano27's Avatar
    Comments:

    Jefferies see an offset of 5M BB7 subs with 4+M BB10 devices. If they redefine 'sub' to include BB10 devices and breakeven at 76M subs, that is huge!

    Mark McKechnie makes my head hurt. He first puts Q1/14 EPS of .06. He says to expect a "strong Q1" with 3.5M BB10. Then says he would not be surprised at ESP .10+. Then he is expecting (0.01) EPS Q2/14 on 3.3B rev. and 3.3M BB10.

    Seriously? Q10 rollout in the US. Q5 global rollout starting NOW only 3 weeks into Q2. Expected ramp up in enterprise BES10.1 and BB10 upgrades. DoD orders. 3.3M? Obviously short or being paid to be short and continue the "initial pent up demand followed by dwindling sales" routine that the shorts will have to spout when the subs stay even! These guys should all lose their jobs because they SUCK. i'm not saying this a a long...I'm saying this as an Engineer (by education only) who could debate their own numbers / logic against them with only my pinky finger.

    I'm hoping those 'super bulls' hiding behind the 'bears' come out of hiding with Q1 report and squeeze this sh!te up!
    Suscribers already include BB10 (and even playbook i guess) since the last quarter.
    06-20-13 12:21 PM
  23. q649's Avatar
    Subscribers do not include playbook users.
    06-20-13 12:22 PM
  24. tiziano27's Avatar
    Subscribers do not include playbook users.
    Source?
    06-20-13 12:27 PM
  25. spiller's Avatar
    Suscribers already include BB10 (and even playbook i guess) since the last quarter.
    So what do you think Misek was implying. 8M people left the BB platform last Q? Then BB7 4M new subs + 4M BB10 sales to offset?

    I think Misek was implying loss of 5M BB7 active devices offset by new BB10 devices.
    06-20-13 12:42 PM
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