View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

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  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. rebekahlynnharrison's Avatar
    06-19-13 11:57 AM
  2. take99's Avatar
    Nice move Greg!
    06-19-13 11:57 AM
  3. greggebhardt's Avatar
    lol... you're harder to predict than this stock.
    LOL! Yep, even I have trouble predicting my stock trading but my choices have served me well!
    06-19-13 11:59 AM
  4. La Emperor's Avatar
    " BlackBerry Downgraded at Bernstein
    By Iain Butler - June 19, 2013 | See also: BBRYBB

    Can anyone else tell that BlackBerry (TSX:BB,NASDAQ:BBRY) is set to report earnings next week? For the first time in our brief history at Fool.ca, we have back-to-back posts on the same company. Exciting!

    Yesterday, it was an RBC upgrade that helped move the stock higher. Today, it’s a Sanford Bernstein downgrade that has BlackBerry shares trading lower. Who’s next?

    Bernstein has dropped its target for the company’s stock down to $10 from $15. This estimate was above $20 just a month ago.

    The laundry list of items cited for today’s downgrade include:

    Market expectations have increased significantly.
    Slow take-up of the new devices reported by distributors and operators in Europe.
    Google trends data indicating weak search volumes.
    Weak sell-through market share data.
    Weak enterprise demand with just 60% of Fortune 500 companies testing the new devices and only 29% of them actually using them.


    All of these issues are expected by Bernstein to manifest in the second half of the year
    . "

    So Mr. Ferragu of Bearstein predicts an eps of .50$ on a 20X multiplier ( highest used as per other article I run across with) arriving at 10$ target. Again from another article he further stated that BB10 sales from his model will be 1million less in sales ( down to 10 million from 11) in the last 2Q of the year. We can therefore calculate that the 1million lost in sales represents about .25$ lost in profit per share, hence the $5 haircut in target.

    Now I quoted this article since it listed specifics on the reason for the downgrade which I highlighted. While I respect his position as an analyst ( because I am not and I am just pointing out an observation ) he seems to be looking at his crystal ball with one eye shut.

    Two Q's down the road, MDM will be in full deployment. Not a mention of that in this laundry list or a few that I've seen regurgitated. What will happen if MDM gains traction and lets say get a worldwide subs of 1 million devices under its protection 6 months from now. Even if its half a million. Why did he just ignore this. Was it not worth mentioning? Or does he think no one will subscribe to it.

    Also as BB previously announced, there are 3 more devices coming out later this year. Really hard to predict how it would sell because no one knows for sure what they can do specs, apps.. We've seen some A10's supposedly in the wild but cannot really tell how the market will embrace it. But this guys is saying saying all the new models, along with the 3 future new ones will not attract or create a buzz at all.

    Then there's the excitement in the auto industry where QNX seems to be in a big headstart agains other players. BB can manage millions of cars at present time OTA which will save $B for the auto industry. They are now setting and talking standards and it seems to create a buzz in this tech convergence. Will there be a partnership or announcement lurking. What happens if the Big 3 in Detroit announces a partnership of future car deployment where embedded systems will be managed by BB.

    Also Potential for BBM channel, BBM Money ( maybe too early to be a factor ) and all sort of other things could happen ( partnership, breakup of core strength which I stated earlier )

    I know, all of what I mentioned are just predictions ( my own ) but his report is also based on what, his predictions. He maybe an analyst but it does not mean he is right all the time.
    I believe ,there are just too many things going on to say that BB is only worth $ 5B come next year based on weaker sales handsets alone ( even if true ). BB is not just a handset maker. And if you believe this guy based on his seemingly narrow focus, then it's time for you to look at other stocks and sell. Just like Cramer proclaimed earlier...thank God.

    I will close this post with a snippet from an article dated May 16 from the same writer above. He printed out a report that day from yes, Bearstein and here's a snippet on the report with a target seemingly priced on the upcoming ER report. Draw your own conclusions.

    "
    At its current price, Blackberry’s stock appears to be nicely balancing the probability of either missing or exceeding these elevated expectations. He sees the stock falling to $10 if the company comes up short, or moving into the $20-25 range if expectations are exceeded.
    "
    Last edited by La Emperor; 06-19-13 at 12:26 PM.
    bungaboy, snejpa, Korepab and 7 others like this.
    06-19-13 12:02 PM
  5. The Selected Fruit's Avatar
    I think the bears have timed this pretty well to release negative news on the day the FOMC announces its intention regarding tapering. The markets as a whole is jittery.
    bungaboy and cjcampbell like this.
    06-19-13 12:02 PM
  6. rebekahlynnharrison's Avatar
    Well that drop was expected-yet-unexpected. kwim
    3 BILLION in concerted dropping efforts is no small mountain to climb.
    People have killed for less motive no?
    Yet, in the back of my mind the day will come that this puppy will move up, up and away.
    06-19-13 12:04 PM
  7. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Nice move Greg!
    I hope so.

    Anyway can yall keep an eye on it as I need to go and see my CPA and will be out for a hour or so.

    I want to hear that cowbell the whole time!!!!!!
    bungaboy and cjcampbell like this.
    06-19-13 12:04 PM
  8. take99's Avatar
    RBC and Bernstein notes aren't the only ones kicking around today. Macquarie analyst Kevin Smithen raised his price target on RIM today to $13.50 from $13, while affirming a "neutral" rating, according to Bloomberg data.

    And, in an especially upbeat assessment, Cormark Securities analyst Richard Tse today reiterated RIM as a "top pick," with a price target of $20. That's among the highest targets on the Street.

    "RIM"s platform transition is an uphill battle," commented Mr. Tse. "That said, the company's surprising operational progress has given it time to bridge the gap between BB7 and BB10.

    "With an underlying net asset value per share of $13.50, we like the risk-to-reward when paired with a new product cycle," he said.

    Mr. Tse also sees potential for a resurgence in services revenue at RIM, but isn't factoring that into his forecasts yet.

    RIM reports first-quarter results on June 28.

    Target: The average price target among analysts is $12.97 (U.S.), according to Bloomberg.
    bungaboy, W Hoa, Korepab and 7 others like this.
    06-19-13 12:07 PM
  9. q649's Avatar
    Get ready for a downturn, I just bought another 100 shares of BB (TSE) @ $14.40.
    06-19-13 12:11 PM
  10. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    " if you're bearish on BlackBerry you damn well better hope this doesn't replicate anywhere else of materiality, even to a fraction of what appears to be happening in Canada."

    The Amusing Bull/Bear Fight For BlackBerry in [Market-Ticker]
    Can BlackBerry continue to deliver -- including continuing to roll new devices and fill in their BB10 product line? That remains to be seen. But what is evident at this point is that the company has repeatedly delivered well ahead of what any other firm in this space has managed to pull off.
    cjcampbell, Korepab and bungaboy like this.
    06-19-13 12:12 PM
  11. dusdal's Avatar
    This is the chart from the earlier referenced article "The amusing bull/bear fight..."

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-statcounter-mobile_os-ca-weekly-201305-201325.jpg

    Admittedly it's only for Canada.
    cjcampbell, take99 and bungaboy like this.
    06-19-13 12:12 PM
  12. q649's Avatar
    Couldn't resist it. Scooped up some more at 14.41 TSX....
    Beat ya by one cent
    06-19-13 12:13 PM
  13. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Well that drop was expected-yet-unexpected. kwim
    3 BILLION in concerted dropping efforts is no small mountain to climb.
    People have killed for less motive no?
    Yet, in the back of my mind the day will come that this puppy will move up, up and away.
    Let's stay calm (and buy if we can/dare) until the 28th ...
    Then (hopefully) ...
    06-19-13 12:15 PM
  14. fedakd's Avatar
    Just got out of a few meetings and I must say that I'm currently at a loss for words. Thanks Bernstein, your timing is impeccable. Every time BlackBerry becomes extremely bullish the stock gets crushed by an analyst report. Coincidence? ...yeah right!

    Here's to hoping Q1 is good. I'm a young guy, and don't have crazy amounts in the stock, but the fact that individuals are doing these things in the market and continually getting away with them is likely increasing my blood pressure. Not good!
    bungaboy, m0de25, gg22 and 1 others like this.
    06-19-13 12:16 PM
  15. silversun10's Avatar
    nice day for the shorters so far, but this might be all they get, time for the rally caps again..............
    06-19-13 12:18 PM
  16. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Sugar, honey, BaBe, ok they've bet now ... touched $14.16 twice.
    You can leave your hat on, but let's warm it up now !

    (P.S: I think I had a *cough* with my yellow line, but finally, enough of straight draws !)
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.jpg  
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-19-13 12:18 PM
  17. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Phew.... support held again. I was sweating a bit there..... as I'm sure Gregg was as well..lol. Now let's get out of this range and move up to a more stable position.
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    06-19-13 12:20 PM
  18. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Just got out of a few meetings and I must say that I'm currently at a loss for words. Thanks Bernstein, your timing is impeccable. Every time BlackBerry becomes extremely bullish the stock gets crushed by an analyst report. Coincidence? ...yeah right!

    Here's to hoping Q1 is good. I'm a young guy, and don't have crazy amounts in the stock, but the fact that individuals are doing these things in the market and continually getting away with them is likely increasing my blood pressure. Not good!
    Fedark,
    I also invested a few Ks. We cannot must not get emotional with day trading.
    We are insiders, we know things 90% of so-called analyst don't even spell correctly.
    So, just relax, I'm sure you didn't expose you too much (I sincerely hope you didn't) and your invested money can hold until better days.

    WE'RE SO LONG WE CAN WAIT
    bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    06-19-13 12:23 PM
  19. HerfDurf's Avatar
    He is allowed to express his feelings as he knows he will get a mature response from the people on this thread. There have been a couple already and have been respectful. Please take note of the type of posts here and follow along accordingly.
    Sure, he can express himself how he wants. That's the great thing about living a free society. However, if you want to express racism, expect a response.

    And make no mistake, calling a successful black man a "thug" because you don't like their style of art *is* racist. And lcjr knew it, which is why he said he "erased this post several times trying not to say the wrong thing".

    Now, I don't think that post represents lcjr's real feelings--I think he was frustrated and made a mistake, which is why I indicated that he should re-think his post (which he did).

    This place is typically respectful, and racism is the exact opposite of respect. It has no place here.
    06-19-13 12:23 PM
  20. spiller's Avatar
    Just need a 1M buy order to hit to start the UP slope on a steep incline!
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-19-13 12:24 PM
  21. take99's Avatar
    And here is more complete notes on todays action including Faucette

    http://m.barrons.com/articles/BL-TB-40097
    06-19-13 12:24 PM
  22. Komoto's Avatar
    Don't fret guys we've been here before. We will survive.

    They are running out of time and to be fair we should have all seen this coming.

    The thing that caught us off guard was:

    1. I don't we can all believe how stupid most people are and subsequently how easily manipulated they have been. 30 to 50k Q10 sales lol.

    2. We were All wondering what the shorts still had in their arsenal, I guess they just answered the question.

    Stay strong, the bear attacks are no longer having a large effect.

    Posted via CB10
    Superfly_FR, bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    06-19-13 12:24 PM
  23. OMGitworks's Avatar
    I was wondering that myself. Anybody have a good answer to this one?
    I am pretty sure the trading houses/brokers have to make good on these trades which is why they control the fees and margin rates and bear the risk. I am not positive about this, but perhaps M+8 or somebody else knows for sure??? If it is a large institution, there may be government backed insurance or other work behind the scenes....
    06-19-13 12:26 PM
  24. spiller's Avatar
    What technical significance is 14.20? They really don't want to let it breach it.....
    06-19-13 12:27 PM
  25. fedakd's Avatar
    As I said, it isn't the amount of money that concerns me at all. It's the fact that Blackberry is working exceptionally hard, with a reduced staff, to execute and "fire on all cylinders" and gets zero credit. What bothers me is that an analyst like Faucette can write a trashy note and disparage everything the employees have worked so hard for. This would be much different if their claims were substantiated. Enough is enough already.

    I surely hope Mr. Zipperstein makes an example out of Jeff Johnston of Denton & Fetwiler. Being a CFA candidate myself, I sent an e-mail to his local CFA society regarding his conduct as an analyst. As a student of the CFA program, I can say that his conduct especially is something that you DO NOT DO!

    Long & strong

    Fedark,
    I also invested a few Ks. We cannot must not get emotional with day trading.
    We are insiders, we know things 90% of so-called analyst don't even spell correctly.
    So, just relax, I'm sure you didn't expose you too much (I sincerely hope you didn't) and your invested money can hold until better days.

    WE'RE SO LONG WE CAN WAIT
    Last edited by fedakd; 06-19-13 at 12:39 PM.
    06-19-13 12:27 PM
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