View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Komoto's Avatar
    I think it is safe to assume that we all think BlackBerry will beat the street! By how much is another issue.

    Things that will be interesting to watch out for are

    Subscriber numbers
    Conversion rate from other platforms
    Margins from device sales
    Service revenue figures
    BES10 downloads

    What are you guys going to be watching for?

    Posted via CB10
    06-16-13 12:51 PM
  2. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Lets say a person wants to setup up a sell order incase of a short squeeze. If that person wants an automatic sell order if the stock jumps up then what kind of sell order is it.

    Example stock price is currently 14 and I want to sell 100 shares IF the stock goes over $60 is it sell limit? Also if I said sell limit at 60 would the stock just sell at 14 because the price is under $60?

    Im asking on behalf of my friend.... Yea my friend
    bungaboy and lcjr like this.
    06-16-13 01:28 PM
  3. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    I think it is safe to assume that we all think BlackBerry will beat the street! By how much is another issue.

    Things that will be interesting to watch out for are

    Subscriber numbers
    Conversion rate from other platforms
    Margins from device sales
    Service revenue figures
    BES10 downloads

    What are you guys going to be watching for?

    Posted via CB10
    Yes.. all the above and I'm very interested to see if they give any hints as to any ramp up in production per month, ad budget going forward and BBM Money pilot figures.

    Posted via CB10
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-16-13 01:43 PM
  4. jrwb6e's Avatar
    Example stock price is currently 14 and I want to sell 100 shares IF the stock goes over $60 is it sell limit? Also if I said sell limit at 60 would the stock just sell at 14 because the price is under $60?

    Im asking on behalf of my friend.... Yea my friend
    The sell limit is the minimum price you're willing to sell. If the SP is under $60, it's still yours (I mean your friend's.).
    06-16-13 01:47 PM
  5. chrysaurora's Avatar
    Lets say a person wants to setup up a sell order incase of a short squeeze. If that person wants an automatic sell order if the stock jumps up then what kind of sell order is it.

    Example stock price is currently 14 and I want to sell 100 shares IF the stock goes over $60 is it sell limit? Also if I said sell limit at 60 would the stock just sell at 14 because the price is under $60?

    Im asking on behalf of my friend.... Yea my friend
    Place SELL order LIMIT $60 GTC (good till canceled).
    So, when stock price reaches $60, it will sell at $60 (min). Might even get few cents higher depending on market price. But no less than $60.

    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-16-13 01:59 PM
  6. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Thanks on the sell limit. Its what I thought but I want to be ready just incase we are lucky! I mean incase my friend gets lucky!
    q649, Bugmapper, bungaboy and 3 others like this.
    06-16-13 02:03 PM
  7. fedakd's Avatar
    I am hoping for EPS of $1.
    Let's say they sell 4M BlackBerry 10 phones at profit of $200 each. That is, $200 profit after cost of producing, distributing bb10 devices. That's $800M profit.

    Bb7 profits (if any), service fee ($600M or so) go towards paying for marketing and other expense and do not contribute to overall profit.

    So, $800 M profit is a little more than $1 EPS.


    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    Just want to add a few things to this. In previous quarters, BlackBerry was generating close to $1B in service revenue. It declined marginally last quarter, however, we should still see service revenues come in around $900M. 600M is way to low!!!

    Keep in mind that in each of the four quarters in FY2013, BlackBerry sold through more phones than it sold into the channel. Channel inventory is effectively nil. Pair this with the fact that BlackBerry was building phones as early as December, and you have a recipe for a lot of phones to be sold into the channel for Q1. I can see 5M BB10s, of which comprise 3M Z10 and 2M Q10; and, 3M BB7 being a very real possibility.

    A quick revenue breakdown (being very conservative with ASPs!!)

    5M x 450 ASP = $2.25b
    3M x 200 ASP = $0.6b
    Service Rev = 0.9b

    Total revenues: 3.75b


    In my opinion, revenues of 3.7b is entirely possible this quarter. If BB10 ASPs are $500, revenues would top $4 billion!!! Even with a 50% increase in the marketing expense line item, we could still see EPS for this quarter easily over $0.50.
    06-16-13 02:21 PM
  8. EvanRitch's Avatar
    Just incase we have a fast short squeeze and we drop back down again I set my sell limit to $84

    Didn't want to be too greedy hahah I figure there is a 0.047892% That my order would get hit. But the scary point is even if it's almost impossible, in my mind there is a chance. So I should protect myself. I would hate to have like a 20 minute run up and back down before anyone knew what happened.
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    06-16-13 04:38 PM
  9. jon_stark_28's Avatar
    06-16-13 05:07 PM
  10. spiller's Avatar
    Just want to add a few things to this. In previous quarters, BlackBerry was generating close to $1B in service revenue. It declined marginally last quarter, however, we should still see service revenues come in around $900M. 600M is way to low!!!

    Keep in mind that in each of the four quarters in FY2013, BlackBerry sold through more phones than it sold into the channel. Channel inventory is effectively nil. Pair this with the fact that BlackBerry was building phones as early as December, and you have a recipe for a lot of phones to be sold into the channel for Q1. I can see 5M BB10s, of which comprise 3M Z10 and 2M Q10; and, 3M BB7 being a very real possibility.

    A quick revenue breakdown (being very conservative with ASPs!!)

    5M x 450 ASP = $2.25b
    3M x 200 ASP = $0.6b
    Service Rev = 0.9b

    Total revenues: 3.75b


    In my opinion, revenues of 3.7b is entirely possible this quarter. If BB10 ASPs are $500, revenues would top $4 billion!!! Even with a 50% increase in the marketing expense line item, we could still see EPS for this quarter easily over $0.50.
    I think your numbers are close and slight conservative but I think they will hit what you have there. Will be a good report.
    06-16-13 05:23 PM
  11. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Hi guys, just a pre-night thought: Let's keep our hopes at a reasonable level. Let's not raise artificially "street estimate " nor feed excessive attempts.
    This will be good, we know that.
    For "dreams come true " only Thor can say... the28th

    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by Superfly_FR; 06-17-13 at 02:35 AM.
    06-16-13 05:36 PM
  12. bungaboy's Avatar
    Some Love Lost?

    Samsung analysts ask hard questions as S4 marketing charm wears off

    Reuters

    Sunday, June 16, 2013 9:22 PM GMT

    By Miyoung Kim

    SEOUL (Reuters) - Analysts fell under Samsung Electronics Co Ltd's marketing spell when they made what they now admit were hopelessly optimistic forecasts for its smartphone sales.

    Samsung's huge share of the high-end smartphone market also persuaded some analysts to downplay industry data pointing to a fast-saturating segment, a reality that is already eating into sales of Apple Inc's iPhone 5.

    Woori Investment & Securities, one of South Korea's largest securities firms, cut its outlook for Samsung's earnings and target share price on June 5. It was the first to adjust its view.

    A massive wave of downgrades has since followed, with forecasters including JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs taking a harder look at their assumptions of how well the S4, Samsung's latest Galaxy smartphone, would actually do.

    Sales estimates for the S4 were slashed by as much as 30 percent, stirring investor concerns over Samsung's mobile devices division - the company's biggest profit generator.

    Investors in the South Korean IT giant have paid dearly. Samsung lost nearly $20 billion in market value in a week as shares plunged following the downgrades.

    "I'd say most forecasters including myself had this conviction that they'll outperform again - because it's Samsung," said Byun Hanjoon, an analyst at KB Investment & Securities. "They had beaten expectations before, which led many to believe they are bound to excel again with the S4."

    The S4 sold 10 million sets in just one month of its debut in late April, outperforming its predecessor, the S3.

    Yet analysts now say the high-end smartphone segment is slowing, citing lacklustre prospects in Europe and South Korea in particular.

    The S4, in reality, also lacks any real wow factor, they say.

    "The Street, including Goldman Sachs, admittedly extrapolated the first-quarter earnings momentum through the year," Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Bang said in a report. "This resulted in very optimistic earnings expectations."

    Most analysts have reduced their estimates for S4 shipments to around 7 million units a month from their previous average expectation of 10 million.

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch has lowered its S4 sales estimate for this year by 5 million to 65 million units.

    Some analysts say a loss in potential sales of 5 million S4 units would cut around $1 billion of Samsung's operating profit.

    "S4 sales are solid. It's just that some analysts had higher expectations and then they lowered them," J.K. Shin, head of Samsung's mobile devices division, told reporters last week.

    Over the past month, 17 out of 43 analysts have downgraded their earnings estimates for Samsung, leading to a 0.6 percent drop in their average forecast for the company's April-to-June earnings to 10.4 trillion won ($9 billion), according to Thomson Reuters StarMine.

    The lowered forecast, however, would still be a quarterly record.

    Many analysts say weaker-than-expected S4 sales will not necessarily stop Samsung from posting record quarterly profits. The company has diversified into many segments of the smartphone market, Merrill Lynch says.

    MID-TIER PHONES

    Still, the scale of the downgrades has cast a shadow on Samsung's dominance in the $250 billion smartphone market.

    Doing it no favour, Chinese rivals are aggressively growing their market share, aided by strong sales of mid-tier models - a segment in which Samsung has relatively weak positioning, according to analysts.

    The mid-tier segment accounted for less than 15 percent of Samsung's total shipments last year.

    Analysts say Samsung has to focus on this lower tier in the medium term.

    The high-end segment is losing momentum, with manufacturers struggling to differentiate themselves and consumers calling for a leap in innovation, they say.

    To be sure, Samsung has not sat idle.

    It has gradually expanded its offerings. Among four varieties of the S4 introduced in recent weeks, there was one stripped-down version called the Galaxy Mini.

    By comparison, Apple has had no new offerings since the iPhone 5 hit the market in September last year.

    Samsung bulls are also pinning their hopes on product launches later this year including the Galaxy Note 3, a phone-tablet hybrid.

    Some analysts say conservative forecasts will prevail.

    "Expectations for innovation have been lowered, and I don't think there'll be as much buzz surrounding new product launches as it used to be," said Byun at KB.

    Samsung's stock, which slumped to a six-month low on Thursday, inched up 0.9 percent on Friday.

    ($1 = 1134.4000 Korean won)
    06-16-13 05:44 PM
  13. spiller's Avatar
    Hi guys, just a prr-night thought: Let's keep our hopes at a reasonable level. Let's not raise artificially "street estimate " nor feed excessive attempts.
    This will be good, we know that.
    For "dreams come true " only Thor can say... the28th

    Posted via CB10
    Nothing wrong with making our own estimates. If the thread followers want professional advice/estimates it is 0.03 EPS
    gilmanhlee likes this.
    06-16-13 05:51 PM
  14. Acumenight's Avatar
    Was it Napoleon that said it? It's most dangerous at the top. Looks like both apple and Samsung he climaxed.

    Microsoft can't seem to get it up. Seems like it is time for BlackBerry to pump it.



    Posted via Z10
    06-16-13 05:51 PM
  15. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    My guess is 10 million devices sold. That is all.
    bungaboy and ibpluto like this.
    06-16-13 06:21 PM
  16. EvanRitch's Avatar
    1 great thing about Wall Street is that they just base their thinking on stuff like this. "Ooo the Iphone sold alot, The Iphone 4 sold even more. So the Iphone 5 must sell like crazy." Then when the stock drops they figure they are getting good value when they haven't realized that those numbers don't always keep going up. Apple was trading at $700 when iPhone 5 came out but at that time you could feel that the momentum was shifting. When Samsung put out that commercial making fun of iPhone users it did a great job. Right then is when Wall Street should have taken notice but they just look at their numbers which is fine.

    Now your seeing it with Samsung as well. They had a MUST HAVE phone that sold well. But after the S4 reveal the feelings were mixed. Yet investors had no problem buying their stock. You have to understand because the S3 was great the S4 will make sales. But with a mixed reaction there is no way they were going to reach their sales goals.

    Anyways the good thing for Blackberry is all expectations are low. So thankfully it should be easier to beat.

    YES some of us really believe in Blackberry but pretty much all believe with proper reality.
    06-16-13 06:22 PM
  17. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Was it Napoleon that said it? It's most dangerous at the top. Looks like both apple and Samsung he climaxed. Microsoft can't seem to get it up. Seems like it is time for BlackBerry to pump it.Posted via Z10
    Ah, push it. Push it real good. Ohhh BB, BB. Oh BB, BB.
    Last edited by Charles Martin1; 06-16-13 at 06:53 PM.
    cjcampbell, bungaboy, lcjr and 2 others like this.
    06-16-13 06:22 PM
  18. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    1 great thing about Wall Street is that they just base their thinking on stuff like this. "Ooo the Iphone sold alot, The Iphone 4 sold even more. So the Iphone 5 must sell like crazy." Then when the stock drops they figure they are getting good value when they haven't realized that those numbers don't always keep going up. Apple was trading at $700 when iPhone 5 came out but at that time you could feel that the momentum was shifting. When Samsung put out that commercial making fun of iPhone users it did a great job. Right then is when Wall Street should have taken notice but they just look at their numbers which is fine. Now your seeing it with Samsung as well. They had a MUST HAVE phone that sold well. But after the S4 reveal the feelings were mixed. Yet investors had no problem buying their stock. You have to understand because the S3 was great the S4 will make sales. But with a mixed reaction there is no way they were going to reach their sales goals. Anyways the good thing for Blackberry is all expectations are low. So thankfully it should be easier to beat. YES some of us really believe in Blackberry but pretty much all believe with proper reality.
    Wall Street...bunch of crooks, morons, and hobos.
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-16-13 06:25 PM
  19. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Wall Street...bunch of crooks, morons, and hobos.
    LOL...hobos.

    Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!
    bungaboy and psy fi like this.
    06-16-13 06:27 PM
  20. nquyen's Avatar
    Psh... You know nothing, John Snow.
    06-16-13 06:32 PM
  21. nquyen's Avatar
    My guess is 10 million devices sold. That is all.
    Why so humble?
    06-16-13 06:33 PM
  22. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Why so humble?
    I think that if they can get that, they will have blown away all expectations and the rest will simply fall into place. BES is going to be enormous, not to mention BlackBerry store sales, prospective licensing agreements, etc.
    06-16-13 06:39 PM
  23. bungaboy's Avatar
    Wall Street...bunch of crooks, morons, and hobos.
    WHAT???? No cork soakers?
    Scott Lefebvre likes this.
    06-16-13 06:42 PM
  24. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    WHAT???? No cork soakers?
    Lol. Oh yeah...I just didn't want to leave out this bunch.
    bungaboy likes this.
    06-16-13 06:45 PM
  25. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    06-16-13 06:53 PM
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