View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    I'm thinking we might shoot, very briefly, to something like $50-60 and sink back to $25-30.
    Really? O man, I can't see that happening, but then again, I have no clue what I'm talking about. But if it does hit $60, I'll **** my pants.
    06-16-13 05:55 AM
  2. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Really? O man, I can't see that happening, but then again, I have no clue what I'm talking about. But if it does hit $60, I'll **** my pants.
    Time to stock up on Depends?

    LOL

    Posted via CB10
    06-16-13 06:23 AM
  3. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Time to stock up on Depends?

    LOL

    Posted via CB10
    At the very least he would be deemed a dependable guy... lol
    06-16-13 07:58 AM
  4. take99's Avatar
    Earnings preview - pretty poor article

    Onswipe
    06-16-13 10:03 AM
  5. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Earnings preview - pretty poor article

    Onswipe
    Meh... it's from jerkoff at douchebank. Nuff said. He says he hasn't done any checks in many of the developing countries but sees a lack of interest. The funniest is his estimate of 2.5 million BB10 devices. I can totally appreciate a bearish stance but one still needs to be reasonable. Only 2.5 times the sales of Q4 with 35 more countries, 3 times the time frame, and 1 more product?
    06-16-13 10:19 AM
  6. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Earnings preview - pretty poor articleOnswipe
    These corck soakers are short the stock. Can't expect much more from them. I hope that they lose their shirts!
    06-16-13 10:19 AM
  7. Lehomer's Avatar
    06-16-13 10:22 AM
  8. kfh227's Avatar
    I think a spike to the low to mid $30s is possible. I just don't see a case for $60. However it would be nice.
    matthewriedle and lcjr like this.
    06-16-13 10:30 AM
  9. kfh227's Avatar
    They are saying revenues of $3.7 billion? The past 4 quarters have had revenues at about $2.8 billion a quarter. If they just to $3.7 billion that will be incredible.

    BBRY has had revenues in a quarter of over $5 billion in the past. But on a yearly average basis, it peaked at just under that.

    I care about FCF. Last quarter it was negative to the tune of about $100 million. If revenues shoot up like this, along with the cost cutting initiatives, I can see FCF at $300+ million on a conservative basis.
    06-16-13 10:37 AM
  10. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    I think a spike to the low to mid $30s is possible. I just don't see a case for $60. However it would be nice.
    My expectations (and hopes) are based on the assumption that collusion fuels the squeeze. I think that a naturally born squeeze should easily see a spike into the $30s.
    06-16-13 10:38 AM
  11. Komoto's Avatar
    also the dude on the video continues to confirm my view that the bear case is extremely weak, I have yet to see an interview where the bear wasn't misinformed at best about anything BBRY. If anyone knows of a video in which a bear makes an intelligent comprehensive case, please let me know.
    Agreed, all the points he made were mute. They have made a turn around, they are innovating and they have changed their psychology. They are executing.

    So when i hear that bear case it just reinforces my conviction.
    lcjr and Shanerredflag like this.
    06-16-13 10:40 AM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    My expectations (and hopes) are based on the assumption that collusion fuels the squeeze. I think that a naturally born squeeze should easily see a spike into the $30s.
    As much as I'd like a spike up that high due to a squeeze, and I suppose it is perfectly plausible, I expect to reach a new 52 week high, and maybe tap $20. This, in my opinion, is still fairly high and also allows me to be extremely excited if it goes higher, but perfectly happy if it doesn't.
    lcjr and Shanerredflag like this.
    06-16-13 10:45 AM
  13. lcjr's Avatar
    I'm positive there will be a price adjustments following the ER, but I don't want to get disappointed again by building it up. I have to keep telling myself I'm in it until October - December anyway so there's plenty of time for this to elevate to where we feel it should be. Hey, if it's over $30 come September, I'll stick around for more with you guys. Haha.
    cjcampbell and Shanerredflag like this.
    06-16-13 10:54 AM
  14. _dimi_'s Avatar
    They are saying revenues of $3.7 billion? The past 4 quarters have had revenues at about $2.8 billion a quarter. If they just to $3.7 billion that will be incredible.

    BBRY has had revenues in a quarter of over $5 billion in the past. But on a yearly average basis, it peaked at just under that.

    I care about FCF. Last quarter it was negative to the tune of about $100 million. If revenues shoot up like this, along with the cost cutting initiatives, I can see FCF at $300+ million on a conservative basis.
    Hi kfh227,

    Would you say Total Revenue = (# BB10 devices x $520) + (# BB7 devices x $220) + $250M from services?

    In that case I just don't see how revenue could be $3.7M for the quarter. Most of the revenue would come from BB10 devices and even C. Umiastowski indicated that 5M devices is too optimistic?

    Don't get me wrong.. I hope revenue will skyrocket but I just can't see it for this quarter. I am however expecting EPS to come in at .56 :-) What do you think?

    Posted via CB10
    06-16-13 11:10 AM
  15. lcjr's Avatar
    I don't have a Z10 but if I did I would consider these cases. Pretty cool actually.

    The Woody - Blackberry Z10 Bamboo – The Woody Co.
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-bambooz10woody_grande.jpg  
    BlackistheBerry likes this.
    06-16-13 11:12 AM
  16. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Hi kfh227,

    Would you say Total Revenue = (# BB10 devices x $520) + (# BB7 devices x $220) + $250M from services?

    In that case I just don't see how revenue could be $3.7M for the quarter. Most of the revenue would come from BB10 devices and even C. Umiastowski indicated that 5M devices is too optimistic?

    Don't get me wrong.. I hope revenue will skyrocket but I just can't see it for this quarter. I am however expecting EPS to come in at .56 :-) What do you think?

    Posted via CB10
    You're numbers are off as they are in the millions instead of billions. For example, take your service revenue number.... if we went down to 70 million subs on the legacy OS, and there was an average of $3/mth paid (low estimate), then there would be $630 million generated for the Q. If they sold 4 million BB10 devices with an ASP of $400, then we're at $1.6 billion. Without the legacy devices, or any other metric not included, we're already at $2.23 billion based on low estimates.

    No offence to Chris U, but he is in the same boat as the rest of us and all the other analysts out there. Taking the numbers that we know and making a guess based upon them. I'm not saying we will be higher than 5 million sold but just because he said so, doesn't make it any more real.

    Your EPS seems to be more in line but even then, it's all a guess for the time being.
    Shanerredflag likes this.
    06-16-13 11:31 AM
  17. JonCBK's Avatar
    I'm hoping and expecting a profitable quarter. But I'm not expecting a huge stock price even after BBRY beats Wall Street estimates. That is because as soon as they announce 4 million BB10 phone sales and the very nice margins that comes with selling a smartphone for $600, folks are just going to start saying that this is only pent up demand and that it can't be kept up. So we are going to start looking at next quarter. I think BBRY needs four quarters in a row to put the squeeze on the shorts. Some of those shorts probably are still deep in the money since they shorted the stock at $50 or so. Others are just sure that bankruptcy is around the corner because they are sure the entire world will soon be Android. Nice sales during the last quarter won't convince them that they are wrong.

    Me, my view is the BBRY 10 is a good OS and that there is a market for qwerty phones. That phone just also needs to have a modern and effective OS. Now only BBRY can do a great qwerty phone and combine it was a great OS. Apple has abandoned this space and Android hasn't been able to fill it. BBRY will continue to dominate the Qwerty market and that market will come back. To the extent that it ever really went away (I see keyboard Blackberrys all the time all over the place).
    06-16-13 11:35 AM
  18. take99's Avatar
    Qnx in Xray machines

    Thomasnet - New Product News
    Shanerredflag and rarsen like this.
    06-16-13 11:57 AM
  19. _dimi_'s Avatar
    You're numbers are off as they are in the millions instead of billions. For example, take your service revenue number.... if we went down to 70 million subs on the legacy OS, and there was an average of $3/mth paid (low estimate), then there would be $630 million generated for the Q. If they sold 4 million BB10 devices with an ASP of $400, then we're at $1.6 billion. Without the legacy devices, or any other metric not included, we're already at $2.23 billion based on low estimates.

    No offence to Chris U, but he is in the same boat as the rest of us and all the other analysts out there. Taking the numbers that we know and making a guess based upon them. I'm not saying we will be higher than 5 million sold but just because he said so, doesn't make it any more real.

    Your EPS seems to be more in line but even then, it's all a guess for the time being.
    Thanks for your response. You're right, I meant $3.7B instead of $3.7M.

    How do you get to the $630M generated for the Q?

    Let's say we took a very bullish standpoint and calculate an estimated total revenue number. I think we'd be disappointed with the result.

    However, next quarter will be totally different. My opinion of course.

    Posted via CB10
    06-16-13 12:01 PM
  20. cjcampbell's Avatar
    I'm hoping and expecting a profitable quarter. But I'm not expecting a huge stock price even after BBRY beats Wall Street estimates. That is because as soon as they announce 4 million BB10 phone sales and the very nice margins that comes with selling a smartphone for $600, folks are just going to start saying that this is only pent up demand and that it can't be kept up. So we are going to start looking at next quarter. I think BBRY needs four quarters in a row to put the squeeze on the shorts. Some of those shorts probably are still deep in the money since they shorted the stock at $50 or so. Others are just sure that bankruptcy is around the corner because they are sure the entire world will soon be Android. Nice sales during the last quarter won't convince them that they are wrong.

    Me, my view is the BBRY 10 is a good OS and that there is a market for qwerty phones. That phone just also needs to have a modern and effective OS. Now only BBRY can do a great qwerty phone and combine it was a great OS. Apple has abandoned this space and Android hasn't been able to fill it. BBRY will continue to dominate the Qwerty market and that market will come back. To the extent that it ever really went away (I see keyboard Blackberrys all the time all over the place).
    I won't disagree with much aside from the shorts being in the money. You say they shorted at $50.... I know they are greedy but to hold that short position beyond $6 is just dumb, and to then continue to hold it as the SP rises, is even more dumb. That's a HUGE profit if they were to have been holding that short position from that price, and even then, the SP hasn't been higher than it is now since last April so even more reason for me to believe that anyone holding their position since then would have covered and maybe re-entered more recently. Also, the short interest has more than doubled since June of last year so the majority of the shorts are deep in the red. I read somewhere, and have can't verify the validity, that the current short average is in the $12 range. They will need to minimize their losses or pray the price falls, and falls hard.
    06-16-13 12:05 PM
  21. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Thanks for your response. You're right, I meant $3.7B instead of $3.7M.

    How do you get to the $630M generated for the Q?

    Let's say we took a very bullish standpoint and calculate an estimated total revenue number. I think we'd be disappointed with the result.

    However, next quarter will be totally different. My opinion of course.

    Posted via CB10
    Again, using a low ball estimate...... 70 million BBOS subs paying on average $3/mth fee equals $210 million/mth totalling $630 million over the quarter.
    06-16-13 12:08 PM
  22. _dimi_'s Avatar
    Again, using a low ball estimate...... 70 million BBOS subs paying on average $3/mth fee equals $210 million/mth totalling $630 million over the quarter.
    Apologies.. I'm applying a monthly service revenue figure for the full quarter. Thanks

    Posted via CB10
    06-16-13 12:11 PM
  23. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Apologies.. I'm applying a monthly service revenue figure for the full quarter. Thanks

    Posted via CB10
    No need to apologize my friend
    _dimi_ likes this.
    06-16-13 12:14 PM
  24. chrysaurora's Avatar
    I am hoping for EPS of $1.
    Let's say they sell 4M BlackBerry 10 phones at profit of $200 each. That is, $200 profit after cost of producing, distributing bb10 devices. That's $800M profit.

    Bb7 profits (if any), service fee ($600M or so) go towards paying for marketing and other expense and do not contribute to overall profit.

    So, $800 M profit is a little more than $1 EPS.


    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    06-16-13 12:24 PM
  25. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    ^^I like it^^

    Posted via CB10
    06-16-13 12:40 PM
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