View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1104. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.77%
  • No

    411 37.23%
  1. lcjr's Avatar
    Days to cover divides the number of shares shorted by the recent average daily volume. Technically it would represent the number of days of trades at the current volume levels for ALL short positions to be covered, if the buys being made were to cover short positions.

    If you think about that, it's pretty meaningless in absolute terms, since at least two things make it totally bogus:

    1. if everyone were trying to cover short positions, the volume would not be at the average levels
    2. you'd never see all trades just being those covering short positions

    I think the only value it has is as a relative value, showing how seriously risky it is to be short in a given company relative to the same company at earlier times, or relative to other companies. Even then it seems likely it's such a simplistic measure that it means little to anyone who would supposedly care.
    Thanks man, I'm still learning and have one heck of a learning curve with all the experts on this thread. I do find Investopedia pretty straight forward and intend to read more thorough references once I'm done with my night time college courses I'm currently taking.

    Short Interest: What It Tells Us
    Shanerredflag and bungaboy like this.
    06-11-13 04:33 PM
  2. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Well, since the SP continues to fall, and the short interest is only rising marginally, it looks like the shorts have discouraged enough people to start selling off a bit. This is the part of the cup and handle that takes endurance, so as not to become a "weak hand" that gets shaken out.

    Edit: You are correct Psy Fi. The short interest actually dropped a smidgen.
    Last edited by Bugmapper; 06-11-13 at 05:00 PM.
    06-11-13 04:35 PM
  3. psy fi's Avatar
    Since the short interest actually went down on the TSX by 4,784 shares than it went up on Nasdaq, there was actually a reduction in the shorts.

    Canadians covering
    Attachment 170854
    Americans still shorting a bit more
    Attachment 170855
    Bugmapper likes this.
    06-11-13 04:40 PM
  4. spiller's Avatar
    Wow!!... A very marginal rise in short interest... now at 171.3 million
    So maybe it's true...there aren't many shares left to short....have the bears reached pretty much the short limit?
    06-11-13 04:52 PM
  5. silversun10's Avatar
    If someone bought those put contracts then, yes. At a strike of $10, they would need to see the stock price drop to $10 minus what they paid for the put at some point between now and the third Friday in December in order to have the ability to close their position and lock in a profit. But the article isn't very clear about the trade, and because it begins with "Unusual volume is being seeing", I think it was written hastily. I can't tell which side of the trade is being cited and I don't know really what "moving through" means...

    I see another article talking about call volume being unusually high:

    Option Trends: Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY), United States Steel Corporation, and Bank of America Corp (BAC) | Market Observations | Schaeffer's Investment Research
    {Excerpt}
    During the past five days, options traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have bought to open 12,368 calls on BBRY, compared to just 2,709 puts -- resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 4.57...
    all they say is Blackberry options buyers bought four time the amount of call options compared to put options, meaning the options traders are optimistic about Blackberry. Schaeffers are contrarians, so if the option buyers are very optimistic they figure that is a negative. go figure.

    "Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY)

    During the past five days, options traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have bought to open 12,368 calls on BBRY, compared to just 2,709 puts -- resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 4.57.

    Expanding the scope, BBRY has racked up a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.45 on the ISE, CBOE, and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Not only does this ratio indicate that traders have bought to open more than four bullish bets for every bearish, it also arrives in the 98th percentile of its annual range. This suggests options players have purchased calls over puts at a faster pace only 2% of the time during the last year.

    This trend toward calls coincides with the U.S. debut of the Q10 smartphone, the global sales of which are doing "better than expected," according to Jefferies. On the charts, however, Research In Motion Ltd hasn't lived up to the hype, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 13 percentage points during the past month. Plus, the equity -- last seen at $13.88 -- is staring up at its formerly supportive 10-week and 20-week moving averages, which could limit upside in the intermediate-term. Against this backdrop, an unwinding of optimism in the options pits could exacerbate selling pressure on BBRY."
    Acumenight and YangFui like this.
    06-11-13 04:59 PM
  6. silversun10's Avatar
    If someone bought those put contracts then, yes. At a strike of $10, they would need to see the stock price drop to $10 minus what they paid for the put at some point between now and the third Friday in December in order to have the ability to close their position and lock in a profit. But the article isn't very clear about the trade, and because it begins with "Unusual volume is being seeing", I think it was written hastily. I can't tell which side of the trade is being cited and I don't know really what "moving through" means...

    I see another article talking about call volume being unusually high:

    Option Trends: Research In Motion Ltd (BBRY), United States Steel Corporation, and Bank of America Corp (BAC) | Market Observations | Schaeffer's Investment Research
    {Excerpt}
    During the past five days, options traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have bought to open 12,368 calls on BBRY, compared to just 2,709 puts -- resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 4.57...
    all they say is Blackberry options buyers bought four time the amount of call options compared to put options, meaning the options traders are optimistic about Blackberry. Schaeffers are contrarians, so if the option buyers are very optimistic they figure that is a negative. go figure.

    "Research In Motion Ltd (NASDAQ:BBRY)

    During the past five days, options traders on the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) have bought to open 12,368 calls on BBRY, compared to just 2,709 puts -- resulting in a call/put volume ratio of 4.57.

    Expanding the scope, BBRY has racked up a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 4.45 on the ISE, CBOE, and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). Not only does this ratio indicate that traders have bought to open more than four bullish bets for every bearish, it also arrives in the 98th percentile of its annual range. This suggests options players have purchased calls over puts at a faster pace only 2% of the time during the last year.

    This trend toward calls coincides with the U.S. debut of the Q10 smartphone, the global sales of which are doing "better than expected," according to Jefferies. On the charts, however, Research In Motion Ltd hasn't lived up to the hype, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) by 13 percentage points during the past month. Plus, the equity -- last seen at $13.88 -- is staring up at its formerly supportive 10-week and 20-week moving averages, which could limit upside in the intermediate-term. Against this backdrop, an unwinding of optimism in the options pits could exacerbate selling pressure on BBRY."
    06-11-13 05:00 PM
  7. plasmid_boy's Avatar
    Well, you could argue that Canadian's are seeing the return of Blackberry much more clearly than the Americans, and they are being a little more cautious in light of the good news coming out of Waterloo, and maybe seeing the smiles on peoples faces that work at BB.
    I can also argue that many of my Canadian friends are very smart people.
    Bugmapper and spike12 like this.
    06-11-13 05:01 PM
  8. silversun10's Avatar
    Since the short interest actually went down on the TSX by 4,784 shares than it went up on Nasdaq, there was actually a reduction in the shorts.
    Shorts in Toronto, a substantial decline as you can see:

    Short Positions for BB
    Symbol Report Date Volume Change % Float
    T : BB 2013-05-31 10,766,739 -685,538 2.05
    T : BB 2013-05-15 11,452,277 -2,042,921 2.18
    T : BB 2013-04-30 13,495,198 2,252,927 2.57
    T : BB 2013-04-15 11,242,271 -1,389,678 2.14
    T : BB 2013-03-31 12,631,949 -751,044 2.41
    T : BB 2013-03-15 13,382,993 712,119 2.55
    T : BB 2013-02-28 12,670,874 -281,805 2.42
    T : BB 2013-02-15 12,952,679 12,952,679 2.47
    Acumenight likes this.
    06-11-13 05:10 PM
  9. spiller's Avatar
    Canadians covering
    Attachment 170854
    Americans still shorting a bit more
    Attachment 170855
    Canadian Change: - 685 538
    US Change: + 680754

    I assume these shares can be sold across exchanges. So the Canadian are selling to the Americans. Only 5K difference.
    peter9477 likes this.
    06-11-13 05:19 PM
  10. silversun10's Avatar
    tech problems with double posting, you have to ignore any error message
    06-11-13 05:22 PM
  11. W Hoa's Avatar
    I think someones drank a little too much koolaid, wish I could believe it though

    BlackBerry Q10 And Z10 Outsells IPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In The US - Jean-Christophe Larsimont - Seeking Alpha
    That article was taken down by Seeking Alpha

    $BBRY After a long struggle with the editors here on SA, my article was rejected without any possibilty to resubmit it here.
    06-11-13 05:42 PM
  12. cjcampbell's Avatar
    That article was taken down by Seeking Alpha
    Wow. Funny how the one about them selling better in France is allowed to be up.

    Posted via CB10
    06-11-13 05:49 PM
  13. kfh227's Avatar
    Cj,

    Bullish:
    Selling puts
    Buying calls

    Bearish:
    Selling calls
    Buying puts

    The articles today said for each put bought, 4 calls were bought.



    Posted via CB10
    cjcampbell, jxnb and snejpa like this.
    06-11-13 05:50 PM
  14. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Cj,

    Bullish:
    Selling puts
    Buying calls

    Bearish:
    Selling calls
    Buying puts

    The articles today said for each put bought, 4 calls were bought.



    Posted via CB10

    Cool. Thanks. I've got a bit of reading to do yet

    Posted via CB10
    06-11-13 05:53 PM
  15. take99's Avatar
    I think this one was debunked in the comments then taken down

    Wow. Funny how the one about them selling better in France is allowed to be up.

    Posted via CB10
    06-11-13 05:58 PM
  16. kfh227's Avatar
    is this a positive sign? canadians covering some and US only up 680K...
    My thought is that Canadians see bb10 phones in Canada. The same is not true for the USA.

    So, they are covering. The average American is a moron.

    Posted via CB10
    Komoto likes this.
    06-11-13 05:59 PM
  17. FastLane228's Avatar
    Very true. I have yet to find any data point that shorts cannot twist around, fun exercise actually...

    Let's Play REACT LIKE A SHORT:

    Low production volume - They are not confident in their product!
    High production volume - They are over-producing and the phones are just sitting on the shelves! Or they are ordering extra parts to fix all the manufacturing defects!

    High decrease in subscriber numbers - RIM is in free fall!
    Low/No decrease in subscriber numbers - Users of BB7 are not upgrading!

    Low migration of users from other platforms - Nobody wants BB10!
    High migration of users from other platforms - Not even existing BB users want BB10!

    Sold out in stores - Staged! Publicity stunt!
    No/Low inventory in stores - Stores didn't order that many because they know BB10 won't sell!
    High inventory in stores - No one is buying!

    Stores have no BB display - BB is doing a horrible job at marketing!
    Stores have great BB display - BB is burning through cash trying to out-market iPhone and Android!

    Buy-out rumours - RIM can't stand on its own feet!
    No buyout rumours - Nobody wants this crappy company!

    Trading below book value - This company is not worth the paper the shares are printed on!
    Trading above book value - This company is over priced!

    No line ups in stores before launch - No lineups! This thing is DOA!
    Line ups in stores before launch - Limited store release to create hype and artificial demand! Fake!

    Phone price at $199- No one is going to buy this at that price! They can buy iPhone and Android instead!
    Phone price at $49 - RIM knows their phones don't compete with iPhone and Android! Too much supply, no demand!

    RIM's chance of doing well - Apple and Google are 100x+ the size, they stand no chance!
    When RIM is doing well relative to its size - Why aren't they selling as many phones as Apple and Google!

    Thorsten keeping quiet - Why is Thorsten keeping quiet? Sales must be horrible!
    Thorsten speaking - Every time he speaks he lowers the stock price! He should just keep quiet!

    Keeping BBM to BB-only - They are taking BBM to their graves with them!
    Opening BBM to all platforms - They are giving away their only good feature! No reason to buy a BB anymore!

    Z10 release - Where's the keyboard!? Isn't that what RIM is known for!?
    Q10 release - Who wants a keyboard? Everyone is using touch screen now!

    When Samsung Knox and iOS gets DOD security cert - BB is no longer king of security! It is over for them!
    When BB10 gets DOD security cert - No one cares!

    A company's BBM gets compromised due to bad handling of encryption keys (no fault of RIM) - RIM's security is faulty!
    iOS hacked by a special USB cable - No biggie, you have to physically access to the device to hack it! Next update will fix it!

    BB not jailbreak-able - Such a backwards closed system that doesn't let users do what they want!
    If BB gets jailbroken - RIM IS DOOOOMMMED!!!

    Lack of firmware updates - Why doesn't RIM get off their *** and fix problems for their users!?
    10.1 and 10.2 too updates - So many updates to fix a broken product! They should not have released it if it wasn't ready!

    Hiring Alicia Keys - RIM jumped the shark!
    (Eventual) Firing Alicia Keys - RIM can't afford to keep her!

    Bonus:
    Crackberry Forums - Group of delusional people
    Yahoo BBRY msg board - Universal source of truth

    See, fun isn't it? =p
    out of respect can I repost this...

    BBM CHANNEL C000EF854 < stocks*C0004ABC9<Pin friends meet
    Compaqee likes this.
    06-11-13 06:02 PM
  18. Zarpan's Avatar
    I think this one was debunked in the comments then taken down
    Yeah, I think the problem was that T-Mobile's website had an option to order by best selling, but that ranking option was completely broken and just organized everything by price instead.

    The French carrier that he wrote about does have a working ranking system though, so that's why that article stayed up.
    take99 likes this.
    06-11-13 06:10 PM
  19. lcjr's Avatar
    My thought is that Canadians see bb10 phones in Canada. The same is not true for the USA.

    So, they are covering. The average American is a moron.

    Posted via CB10
    Thanks a lot...
    06-11-13 06:23 PM
  20. take99's Avatar
    I think he's saying you are above average lcjr, you can take it as a compliment lol
    Scott Lefebvre, bungaboy and lcjr like this.
    06-11-13 06:26 PM
  21. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Thanks a lot...
    I was going to say perhaps a better choice of words could be found ...then I didn't, mostly because my Wisers was low. Cheers.
    06-11-13 06:27 PM
  22. leafs123's Avatar
    Seems like my broker (CIBC) screwed up and they set my account to not receive any materials for the securities I own, including BBRY. Apparently I had requested this. *facepalm*

    Now I need to get in touch with BBRY's IR team to get the materials for the AGM.

    Posted via CB10
    06-11-13 06:32 PM
  23. peter9477's Avatar
    Seems like my broker (CIBC) screwed up and they set my account to not receive any materials for the securities I own, including BBRY. Apparently I had requested this. *facepalm*

    Now I need to get in touch with BBRY's IR team to get the materials for the AGM.
    You don't really, unless for some bizarre reason you really feel like voting. The AGM itself isn't restricted to shareholders, although I think in theory it could be.

    Although I've been a shareholder for the last two AGMs, I also have my account(s) set up so I don't get the materials... but they certainly didn't stop me from going to the AGM. I just couldn't vote. (Edit: turns out one account isn't set that way so I did just get my AGM notice and proxy form, after I wrote that.)

    (And seriously, the votes of everyone here put together would not come even close to affecting the outcome, so I wouldn't worry about that if I were you.)

    See you there! :-)
    06-11-13 06:52 PM
  24. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Seems like my broker (CIBC) screwed up and they set my account to not receive any materials for the securities I own, including BBRY. Apparently I had requested this. *facepalm*

    Now I need to get in touch with BBRY's IR team to get the materials for the AGM.

    Posted via CB10
    Yeah, I opted not to receive communications from corporations I own either. Normally that is a good thing cuz it can really stuff my mailbox, but I kinda wish I had the blackberry info. Oh well.

    Are you planning to attend AGM?
    06-11-13 06:53 PM
  25. ItsTheBox's Avatar
    My thought is that Canadians see bb10 phones in Canada. The same is not true for the USA.

    So, they are covering. The average American is a moron.

    Posted via CB10
    I am an American and I am no... oh look, a squirrel!!!

    Sent from my SPH-L900 using CB Forums mobile app
    06-11-13 07:03 PM
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