[Scott Lefebvre]

Folks, I realize that a lot of you are worried or pissed and I'll not mention my thoughts about this stock going down any further. However, just so you know, if it does fall further from another big raid, and I can buy in at the moment that it falls, that $1 gain from about the high $12s or even low $13s will be a very quick gain of almost 8%. That's why I am watching it so closely but I guarantee you that I do worry too.

As this gets dragged out further, it's getting harder and harder to watch. I just want it to cycle through so I can walk away for a while.

I feel the same I just want to walk away for a while, but don't want to miss a buying point. Even though I have more shares than I need, if it ever gets to that $100 point. It's all about the deal just like buying a new car. I can't not buy if it drops.... But real hope it goes up.. big time

[BThunderW]

LOL. They're really trying to get this thread shut down...

[Shanerredflag]

So anyone think tomorrow is green all day? Regardless of the sell side houses and how our other poster interpreted the data we are doing pretty well on stemming the bleeding...with the Q release it's only going to get better...Longs and retail traders will see the opportunity very soon.

Posted via CB10

[Zarpan]

Comscore measures installed base, not sales. In the same period BB lost 600,00 users WP added 143,000. Because both platforms may be losing legacy users (Blackberry BB7 users and WP old Windows Mobile users) its difficult to deduce sales figures from this, but it certainly does not look like BB is outselling WP in the USA.

BTW, the 40 days of BB Z10 sales excuse is pretty poor. Was there no pent up demand at all?

BlackBerry has been trending downwards at around 0.5% per month for a while.

December - 6.4%
January - 5.9%
February - 5.4%

If that trend continued, then you'd expect BlackBerry to be at around 4.4% for April. Instead, BlackBerry was at 5.1%, which is about 0.7% (or 1 million users) higher than the trendline.

Since the data is a three month average the April Comscore numbers include February, when the BlackBerry base was likely declining heavily still.

Hence you could have a situation where the actual monthly numbers were:

October - 6.9%
November - 6.4%
December - 5.9%
January - 5.4%
February - 4.9%
March - 5.2%
April - 5.3%

Such a scenario would match the three month averages that Comscore provides. Theoretically BlackBerry could have increased its installed base by 800,000 between February and April. In that case, BlackBerry would have increased installed base by much more than Windows Phone, as well as having to replace higher monthly churn due to the larger installed base.

The Comscore numbers are in opposition to Kantar's figures since BlackBerry would have continued to lose their installed base at the same rate as before if their sales market share was only 0.7%. Of course they're both surveys rather than actual numbers, but I think Comscore's numbers make more sense than BlackBerry's sales market share dropping after the Z10 was launched, which is what Kantar was seemingly indicating.

[cjcampbell]

BlackBerry has been trending downwards at around 0.5% per month for a while.

December - 6.4%
January - 5.9%
February - 5.4%

If that trend continued, then you'd expect BlackBerry to be at around 4.4% for April. Instead, BlackBerry was at 5.1%, which is about 0.7% (or 1 million users) higher than the trendline.

Since the data is a three month average the April Comscore numbers include February, when the BlackBerry base was likely declining heavily still.

Hence you could have a situation where the actual monthly numbers were:

October - 6.9%
November - 6.4%
December - 5.9%
January - 5.4%
February - 4.9%
March - 5.2%
April - 5.3%

Such a scenario would match the three month averages that Comscore provides. Theoretically BlackBerry could have increased its installed base by 800,000 between February and April. In that case, BlackBerry would have increased installed base by much more than Windows Phone, as well as having to replace higher monthly churn due to the larger installed base.

The Comscore numbers are in opposition to Kantar's figures since BlackBerry would have continued to lose their installed base at the same rate as before if their sales market share was only 0.7%. Of course they're both surveys rather than actual numbers, but I think Comscore's numbers make more sense than BlackBerry's sales market share dropping after the Z10 was launched, which is what Kantar was seemingly indicating.

I suppose this is a better response than the one I had lol

[Zarpan]

I'd add that Comscore's numbers seem to match up better with the quarterly reports from AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint.

I think those three carriers reported Q1 iPhone sales that were 10.3 million units out of 18.2 million smartphones.

This would seem to match Comscore's surveys that show Apple closing the gap with Android in terms of installed based. Kantar's Q1 surveys showed Android outselling the iPhone, which seems to be unlikely given the information from the top 3 carriers.

So of the two surveys, Comscore seems to better match reality than Kantar if you look at actual data and compare them to the surveys.

[tygros]

Comscore measures installed base, not sales. In the same period BB lost 600,00 users WP added 143,000. Because both platforms may be losing legacy users (Blackberry BB7 users and WP old Windows Mobile users) its difficult to deduce sales figures from this, but it certainly does not look like BB is outselling WP in the USA.

BTW, the 40 days of BB Z10 sales excuse is pretty poor. Was there no pent up demand at all?

You can't possible deduce that. BB10 users are coming from non-BB and BBOS alike, so the loss could still be a huge sales number.

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

The way I'm seeing this is unless every sell side house converge tomorrow we have to be green...and not by a little bit either.

Posted via CB10

[nquyen]

ER please and thank you.

[stevenson232]

I think I'm going to start buying silver bullion instead of rolling into bbry stock right now

[take99]

Maybe Home Depot wont get those iphone 4 s after all

ITC bans iPhones and iPads from US in Samsung victory ? The Register

[lcjr]

Every great place has a fire escape and a place everyone rallys to in order to be accounted for. Where is ours if this thread gets shut down?

[cjcampbell]

Maybe Home Depot wont get those iphone 4 s after all

ITC bans iPhones and iPads from US in Samsung victory ? The Register

Wow!! That's crazy. Guess they can't win 'em all. Although I highly doubt that Obama will sign the order. If he does, however, there will be a noticeable difference in the coming Comscore reports... lol

[Charles Martin1]

I think I'm going to start buying silver bullion instead of rolling into bbry stock right now

I'm holding off PMs until after the June FOMC meeting.

[lcjr]

Maybe Home Depot wont get those iphone 4 s after all

ITC bans iPhones and iPads from US in Samsung victory ? The Register

Unfortunately, there are ways around that or at least postpone it until it is no longer relevant. I know that they can appeal the decision giving them enough time before those devices are obsolete.

[Bugmapper]

Every great place has a fire escape and a place everyone rallys to in order to be accounted for. Where is ours if this thread gets shut down?

First thought is the stockberrian thread to regroup, the decide from there.

[Shanerredflag]

Every great place has a fire escape and a place everyone rallys to in order to be accounted for. Where is ours if this thread gets shut down?

Start another thread...the only reason we are seeing an increase in "troll like traffic" is because of fear...and the silly part is its not financial (for the most part). Just young guys who bet their buddies BlackBerry was toast. For sure there are pro bashers too who play by forum rules but make certain to plant seeds of doubt for the casual Web surfer who only view a couple posts then leave.
In the end this is one of the more popular places and if we can not over react we should be ok.

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

welcome to the club boys.....I seem to have escaped this time......

I think I should get a tattoo now...lol

[Shanerredflag]

I think I should get a tattoo now...lol

Lol. What would it say?

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

Lol. What would it say?

Posted via CB10

A lone teardrop...

[take99]

They wouldnt shut down a thread with over a million views would they?

[Charles Martin1]

Instead of the 5 dots on the hand that ex-prisoners have, I'd put the BlackBerry symbol in the same place...lol

Lol. What would it say?

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

Instead of the 5 dots on the hand that ex-prisoners have, I'd put the BlackBerry symbol in the same place...lol

Hahaha....so I guess we need to hire a tattoo artist for the 100 dollar party then...everyone gets the flying BB

Posted via CB10

[Charles Martin1]

Guys, let's just move on and make better use of our ignore function. I like this place and generally pay very little attention to the obvious trolls. I strayed and I apologize to the members for heightening the risk of closure.

[Shanerredflag]

Of course by then I may have enough infraction points for an entire sleeve...hahaha

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