View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. Bugmapper's Avatar
    A thought popped into my head this morning as I was catching on BB news and this thread. Is a quarter a true indication of that the new platform is gaining traction? I'm looking at it simply from a regular consumer and CIO perspective, without rose coloured glassed.

    For a consumer's perspective, most of us have 2-3 year commitments on devices and my argument is that not all people will suddenly be switching to BB10 devices because they are out. They have upgrade cycles which they are waiting for. My brother for example, wants to get the Q10 but for him as a student, it is a little expensive to upgrade mid-contract. Thus, he either has to hold out until he burns some time off his contract, or he can pick up a cheap Q5 outright from overseas.

    From a CIO perspective, many large enterprises such as banks have also upgrade cycles which take large budgets to undertake and implement. My last employer, one of the 5 big Canadian banks, was not upgrading to BB10 until the fall because they upgraded to the 9900 not too long ago.

    This doesn't not mean that BBRY not selling many devices can be excused, I'm just trying to temper the expectations for this quarter.

    Thoughts?
    You are mostly right. You forgot people like me who were 2 years over their contract.... waiting for BB10. Also, I don't think very large corporations / government have to follow "contracts" per se. They are not locked in to silly term limits like consumers and can buy what they want, when they want if they are purchasing many thousands of units.
    05-28-13 11:03 AM
  2. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    I hope you are right, I just worry they will allow perception to become reality. 5 years is a great time frame for an investment, but is like dog years (5 x 7=35) in tech company years.
    Nah, if they were going to let perception become reality, this chapter would not have even started.
    05-28-13 11:04 AM
  3. tiziano27's Avatar
    First off, you were looking at a different dataset. I was looking at mobile vendors, not mobile OS. I don't know if they're counting BB10 and BBOS in the same category so I used 'Mobile vendor (beta)' instead.

    Second, I don't see why you think the Canadian data is flawed. The spike in May that you're looking at falls in line with the launch of the Q10, which has been reported to be a better seller than the Z10. And since the other two platforms decreased over that period, I think the 50% migration rate is looking pretty truthful.
    If It's beta you could infer that the reliability is even worst than the other series.
    The data for Canada is probably wrong because the change is too big. You can see crazy movements like frequently in their data. Just look at the series for UK and South Africa.
    05-28-13 11:04 AM
  4. Bugmapper's Avatar
    Q10 is 720x720. You got the Z10 right and I think the other ones are low end Curves.
    So blackberry just sold a whole wack of curves in Canada?
    05-28-13 11:05 AM
  5. leafs123's Avatar
    You are mostly right. You forgot people like me who were 2 years over their contract.... waiting for BB10. Also, I don't think very large corporations / government have to follow "contracts" per se. They are not locked in to silly term limits like consumers and can buy what they want, when they want if they are purchasing many thousands of units.
    I didn't include yourself and myself, in the same case, as I am assuming those to have upgraded. I understand that corporations can upgrade at any time but it is not cheap. Many large corporations have to take into consideration tech budgets.
    Bugmapper likes this.
    05-28-13 11:09 AM
  6. morlock_man's Avatar
    If It's beta you could infer that the reliability is even worst than the other series.
    The data for Canada is probably wrong because the change is too big. You can see crazy movements like frequently in their data. Just look at the series for UK and South Africa.
    It's more likely to be reporting the new and legacy devices than the older system.

    As for the UK and South Africa....

    The UK has been the first to get both launches. The Q10 is a huge seller there.

    And South Africa is dominated by BBRY. It's the most popular platform in the country. And they had a ton of legacy sales going prior to the launch.

    Why are you looking at BBRY's strongholds and assuming there must be a problem?
    05-28-13 11:10 AM
  7. tiziano27's Avatar
    It's more likely to be reporting the new and legacy devices than the older system.

    As for the UK and South Africa....

    The UK has been the first to get both launches. The Q10 is a huge seller there.

    And South Africa is dominated by BBRY. It's the most popular platform in the country. And they had a ton of legacy sales going prior to the launch.

    Why are you looking at BBRY's strongholds and assuming there must be a problem?
    You didn't see the data.

    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    Look at China:
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share
    05-28-13 11:16 AM
  8. morlock_man's Avatar
    I did see that data, I get the feeling you don't understand what you're looking at.

    And why bring up China? Most of the place is firewalled off, how're you supposed to get accurate usage stats?
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 11:20 AM
  9. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Exactly.

    Think about how much this stock could be worth in those 35 dog years.

    QNX is an amazingly future-proofed OS and BBRY truly understands security. I really think it will replace pretty much everything else out there over time.
    At the very least it will cause further innovations, which in this case allows us to improve our quality of life.
    05-28-13 11:21 AM
  10. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Guys, I think that you're getting tangled up in the minutiae.
    take99 likes this.
    05-28-13 11:23 AM
  11. tiziano27's Avatar
    I did see that data, I get the feeling you don't understand what you're looking at.

    And why bring up China? Most of the place is firewalled off, how're you supposed to get accurate usage stats?
    Oh, so you think those variations in the monthly data are normal?
    For example, South Africa:

    December: 4.02%
    January: 20,04%
    February: 48,05%
    05-28-13 11:25 AM
  12. morlock_man's Avatar
    Oh, so you think those variations in the monthly data are normal?
    For example, South Africa:

    December: 4.02%
    January: 20,04%
    February: 48,05%
    Yeah I do.

    They dumped the legacy phones into the market at discounted rates and dominated the marketplace.

    You're looking at the data as though those are all smartphones. Some of the mobile OS numbers are for feature phones. Significant flucuations in the data area likely to occur as the feature phone is replaced by the smartphone. South Africa has one of the fastest growing smartphone markets in the world today.
    05-28-13 11:27 AM
  13. tiziano27's Avatar
    Yeah I do.

    They dumped the legacy phones into the market at discounted rates and dominated the marketplace.
    Ok.
    05-28-13 11:30 AM
  14. kfh227's Avatar
    Sad, that was the truck I wanted next. Oh well.

    Posted via CB10
    05-28-13 11:33 AM
  15. AngryEdmontonian's Avatar
    BlackBerry Sales Analysis: Store Checks Likely Bogus | BGR

    Nice to see this from BGR of all places
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 11:34 AM
  16. Scott Lefebvre's Avatar
    Sad, that was the truck I wanted next. Oh well.

    Posted via CB10
    Think I will sell my 2010 Laramie and switch to? Who's QNX based?
    05-28-13 11:39 AM
  17. W Hoa's Avatar
    Sometimes the choice of a phone is based on the strangest things:

    GioteckArmy @IAPromethean Android there is huge variance from device 2 device. iPhone is expensive but reliable. new BB10 devices have amiga games!
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 11:41 AM
  18. take99's Avatar
    Think I will sell my 2010 Laramie and switch to? Who's QNX based?
    Chevy
    Scott Lefebvre likes this.
    05-28-13 11:46 AM
  19. take99's Avatar
    Nice article here seems like Verizon is stepping up with the q10 launch looming

    'Buy In May And Go Away'; Costco And Verizon Buttress BlackBerry - Tufenk - Seeking Alpha
    05-28-13 11:47 AM
  20. take99's Avatar
    05-28-13 11:54 AM
  21. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    BlackBerry Sales Analysis: Store Checks Likely Bogus | BGR

    Nice to see this from BGR of all places

    Sounds like the shorts are getting ready to increase their estimates AGAIN. They can't be seen as being too out to lunch and for sure they have to prepare to discount any seemingly strong growth as marginal next to their constantly revised gibberish.
    05-28-13 11:56 AM
  22. Fortyniner's Avatar
    Trying to catch up on everything, it seems all the manufactures are down today because of the Samsung S4 sells. We will need a little time for this to wear off in order to move higher.
    05-28-13 11:56 AM
  23. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    There we go...and no impact on the SP. I don't think release dates are going to do it anymore.

    Moreover, I'm quite certain that the folks from CNBC and various short dogs will have their scripts written and ready to shoot down the Q10 release. Who knows what silly comparisons they'll make.
    05-28-13 11:58 AM
  24. morlock_man's Avatar
    There we go...and no impact on the SP. I don't think release dates are going to do it anymore.
    Shhhh... don't startle the shorts.
    05-28-13 11:59 AM
  25. kfh227's Avatar
    Think I will sell my 2010 Laramie and switch to? Who's QNX based?
    Not sure but the biggest problem I had with my Ford is ms sync. I will not ever again buy a vehicle with MSFT software in it. Chevy maybe?

    Posted via CB10
    Scott Lefebvre likes this.
    05-28-13 12:04 PM
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