View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. bungaboy's Avatar
    LOL...Sidney Crosby is from Cole Harbour. Not sure about the rest of the goings on though.

    Nah, pretty sure BlackBerry is best kept where it is. We do have a BlackBerry operation here in Bedford and as far as I know, the Provincial economic development agency here contributed $10 million to their activities last fall.

    M+8, any thoughts on how that lower Bollinger band is breaking to the south? My thoughts are, from a worst case scenario, if we continue to go without news we're going to mirror April but with a higher low.
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-team_0.jpg
    morganplus8 and CDM76 like this.
    05-28-13 10:07 AM
  2. Scott Lefebvre's Avatar
    .24% increase in marketshare in the last month.

    Over 1 billion smartphone users in the world.

    .24% of 1 billion is 2.4 million.

    Upgrading existing customers wouldn't change the marketshare and Hein's said that they were seeing a 50% turnover rate, so that .24% is likely consumers migrating from an Android or iPhone. So the 2.4 million should be doubled to reflect both upgrading and migrating users.

    Hence, ~5 million.

    And since the month I'm looking at was before the Q10 was launched, the sales have to be Z10 or legacy phones.
    Thanks, just not sure about the 1b smart phones sold in the last year. Users to sales I'm sure arn't on a one to one basis.. however either way very encouraging
    05-28-13 10:08 AM
  3. morlock_man's Avatar
    Thanks, just not sure about the 1b smart phones sold in the last year. Users to sales I'm sure arn't on a one to one basis.. however either way very encouraging
    1 billion is the size of the market, not the number of phones sold.

    But to increase your marketshare you have to be selling phones, comprende?
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 10:10 AM
  4. matthewriedle's Avatar
    Years ago was on the back of a pack of Players cigarettes before they added calendars then all those gory pictures of lungs/bad gums/teeth, etc. LoL

    I had had that monkey off my back for 13 years now. Thank goodness.
    20 year players light smoker here. 9 months free myself.
    05-28-13 10:14 AM
  5. rebekahlynnharrison's Avatar
    I think I might be getting a nice teflon coating on my stomach these days for paper losses lol.
    Anywho more work gets done around here when were floating between $14.50 and $15.10 BB.TO
    That June ER is going to feel like a drenching rain on drought ground. Bring it on.
    05-28-13 10:18 AM
  6. morganplus8's Avatar
    LOL...Sidney Crosby is from Cole Harbour. Not sure about the rest of the goings on though.

    Nah, pretty sure BlackBerry is best kept where it is. We do have a BlackBerry operation here in Bedford and as far as I know, the Provincial economic development agency here contributed $10 million to their activities last fall.

    M+8, any thoughts on how that lower Bollinger band is breaking to the south? My thoughts are, from a worst case scenario, if we continue to go without news we're going to mirror April but with a higher low.
    Oh yeah, I forgot Sidney Crosby, how can a small town like that produce so many great athletes?

    Anyway, the BB's are dropping slightly right now, the circle on the left shows you the 22 second-day of the 22-day moving average used to calculate two standard deviations of the norm for the BB's.

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-may-28a-2013-chart.jpg

    The circle on the right is where we are today. The next few closes after the circle on the left are higher which will cause the lower band to drop faster than the $ .02/shr it is doing today. There is a chance, that while we are in the dry period of no good news (5 - 10 days), or negative news, that the stock could work its way below $ 14.00/shr. The support comes from the uptrend line, RSI and its latest action which is to trade on ever weakening volume. There just is no interest in this trade until the Q10 launch and the Q1 ER. This week is probably the only time that the stock has left to weaken on no news. Let's see how it does today on very low volume.
    05-28-13 10:19 AM
  7. cjcampbell's Avatar
    It seems there are some buyers after all. A quick exit from the red is a good sign.
    05-28-13 10:19 AM
  8. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    If you look at the dataset closely enough, of course you're going to see larger flucuations in the dataset. You're basically looking at it under a magnifying glass.

    I looked at a month to month trend. Which I assumed would average the values for the month, not just pick one arbitrary number.

    As someone else mentioned in earlier postings, the usage data reflects data obtained from website hit counters, not actual sales numbers. A lot of phones could go unreported by these numbers simply by not being used.

    But even if you assumed a +-0.05 margin of error, the number of sales still goes to somewhere between 3-6 million in the last month.
    I believe there's some factual indicators. Screen size (hardware detection) may be a good one, especially since Z10 has a weird (1280X768) one.
    So, in Canada, if you compare the year (Jan-May) and May alone ... (and then I'll let you play around with maths !)
    P.S: it's ALL mobile (I believe incl. tablets).
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture1.jpg   The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.jpg  
    05-28-13 10:23 AM
  9. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Oh yeah, I forgot Sidney Crosby, how can a small town like that produce so many great athletes?

    Anyway, the BB's are dropping slightly right now, the circle on the left shows you the 22 second-day of the 22-day moving average used to calculate two standard deviations of the norm for the BB's.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	RIM May 28a  2013 Chart.jpg 
Views:	513 
Size:	84.9 KB 
ID:	166152

    The circle on the right is where we are today. The next few closes after the circle on the left are higher which will cause the lower band to drop faster than the $ .02/shr it is doing today. There is a chance, that while we are in the dry period of no good news (5 - 10 days), or negative news, that the stock could work its way below $ 14.00/shr. The support comes from the uptrend line, RSI and its latest action which is to trade on ever weakening volume. There just is no interest in this trade until the Q10 launch and the Q1 ER. This week is probably the only time that the stock has left to weaken on no news. Let's see how it does today on very low volume.
    I bow down to you oh great master. Your explanations are so very clear. It is greatly appreciated.
    05-28-13 10:24 AM
  10. OMGitworks's Avatar
    If you look at the dataset closely enough, of course you're going to see larger flucuations in the dataset. You're basically looking at it under a magnifying glass.

    I looked at a month to month trend. Which I assumed would average the values for the month, not just pick one arbitrary number.

    As someone else mentioned in earlier postings, the usage data reflects data obtained from website hit counters, not actual sales numbers. A lot of phones could go unreported by these numbers simply by not being used.

    But even if you assumed a +-0.05 margin of error, the number of sales still goes to somewhere between 3-6 million in the last month.
    Thanks for your work on this. Bottom line is you/we/the street shouldn't be constrained to having to try to extrapolate sales figures from these type of numbers, half a$$ed channel checks and TH's vague statements. Instead of TH's pronouncements that sales are so great and exceeded expectations AFAIK, its May 28th and we don't have a single hard number for Z10, Q10 or even a US launch date for the Q10. Honestly, inexcusable for a company like BBRY, esp after BB Live.

    I knew a while ago when I bought my 500 shares that it might be dead money (recall my posts that I was holding out until it hit 18 as I thought it would just meander here) and I am only down a few bucks, but it is so puzzling to me how BBRY can be so deaf to the market, esp given the gigantic short interest....

    Let's see what the ER brings, but BBRY sure is a frustrating stock to own these days. Vent (sort of) off.
    CDM76 and ItsTheBox like this.
    05-28-13 10:34 AM
  11. morlock_man's Avatar
    Thanks for you work on this. Bottom line is you/we/the street shouldn't be constrained to having to try to extrapolate sales figures from these type of numbers, half a$$ed channel checks and TH's vague statements. Instead of TH's pronouncements that sales are so great and exceeded expectations AFAIK, its May 28th and we don't have a single hard number for Z10, Q10 or even a US launch date for the Q10. Honestly, inexcusable for a company like BBRY, esp after BB Live.

    I knew a while ago when I bought my 500 shares that it might be dead money (recall my posts that I was holding out until it hit 18 as I thought it would just meander here) and I am only down a few bucks, but it is so puzzling to me how BBRY can be so deaf to the market, esp given the gigantic short interest....

    Let's see what the ER brings, but BBRY sure is a frustrating stock to own these days. Vent (sort of) off.
    Personally, I think they're making smart moves.

    I bought my stock wanting to hold onto it for 5 years.

    The short squeeze will be a beautiful thing to behold, but they're still just getting started.

    Smartphone sales are just the tip of the M2M iceberg.
    05-28-13 10:37 AM
  12. OMGitworks's Avatar
    Personally, I think they're making smart moves.

    I bought my stock wanting to hold onto it for 5 years.

    The short squeeze will be a beautiful thing to behold, but they're still just getting started.

    Smartphone sales are just the tip of the M2M iceberg.
    I hope you are right, I just worry they will allow perception to become reality. 5 years is a great time frame for an investment, but is like dog years (5 x 7=35) in tech company years.
    La Emperor and Scott Lefebvre like this.
    05-28-13 10:40 AM
  13. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Was looking for figures in Canada and found this crap ... (link on demand, won't promote).
    Now I understand how some can be lead in confusion ... (just look at the catalys N/As / 100% total on the right table).
    Attached Thumbnails The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-capture.png  
    05-28-13 10:42 AM
  14. Thunderbuck's Avatar
    Oh yeah, I forgot Sidney Crosby, how can a small town like that produce so many great athletes?

    Anyway, the BB's are dropping slightly right now, the circle on the left shows you the 22 second-day of the 22-day moving average used to calculate two standard deviations of the norm for the BB's.

    Click image for larger version. 

Name:	RIM May 28a  2013 Chart.jpg 
Views:	513 
Size:	84.9 KB 
ID:	166152

    The circle on the right is where we are today. The next few closes after the circle on the left are higher which will cause the lower band to drop faster than the $ .02/shr it is doing today. There is a chance, that while we are in the dry period of no good news (5 - 10 days), or negative news, that the stock could work its way below $ 14.00/shr. The support comes from the uptrend line, RSI and its latest action which is to trade on ever weakening volume. There just is no interest in this trade until the Q10 launch and the Q1 ER. This week is probably the only time that the stock has left to weaken on no news. Let's see how it does today on very low volume.
    Excellent analysis! And in my own case, I don't mind if BB drifts down a bit; I had to sell some of my holding a while ago to pay for some orthodontia (for me, at almost 50--I don't know what I was thinking). Anyway, my insurance claim is coming in this week and I can start buying back in. In that case, lower is better
    05-28-13 10:43 AM
  15. morlock_man's Avatar
    I hope you are right, I just worry they will allow perception to become reality. 5 years is a great time frame for an investment, but is like dog years (5 x 7=35) in tech company years.
    Exactly.

    Think about how much this stock could be worth in those 35 dog years.

    QNX is an amazingly future-proofed OS and BBRY truly understands security. I really think it will replace pretty much everything else out there over time.
    05-28-13 10:44 AM
  16. tiziano27's Avatar
    I believe there's some factual indicators. Screen size (hardware detection) may be a good one, especially since Z10 has a weird (1280X768) one.
    So, in Canada, if you compare the year (Jan-May) and May alone ... (and then I'll let you play around with maths !)
    P.S: it's ALL mobile (I believe incl. tablets).
    It's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.

    Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.
    05-28-13 10:44 AM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Personally, I think they're making smart moves.
    I bought my stock wanting to hold onto it for 5 years.
    The short squeeze will be a beautiful thing to behold, but they're still just getting started.
    Smartphone sales are just the tip of the M2M iceberg.
    Get out of my head, Morlock_man ! (I don't want you to read my dirty secrets !!!)
    05-28-13 10:44 AM
  18. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    It's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.

    Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.
    Oh, my bad then. Thanks + Like : out of buttons.
    05-28-13 10:48 AM
  19. Dapper37's Avatar

    Also, Fixmo is heavily staffed by former Rimjobbers. Would be interesting to see if they've absconded with any intellectual property while building their enterprise during the last 4 years.

    If they were Apple, they'd sue the ****e out of em! Just cause, helps slow Em down.


    Posted via CB10
    m0de25, CDM76 and bungaboy like this.
    05-28-13 10:48 AM
  20. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Me linking BGR ? Yup, I do read and link few ... but this one is fair and +
    BlackBerry Sales Analysis: Store Checks Likely Bogus | BGR
    take99, bungaboy and Acumenight like this.
    05-28-13 10:53 AM
  21. leafs123's Avatar
    A thought popped into my head this morning as I was catching on BB news and this thread. Is a quarter a true indication of that the new platform is gaining traction? I'm looking at it simply from a regular consumer and CIO perspective, without rose coloured glassed.

    For a consumer's perspective, most of us have 2-3 year commitments on devices and my argument is that not all people will suddenly be switching to BB10 devices because they are out. They have upgrade cycles which they are waiting for. My brother for example, wants to get the Q10 but for him as a student, it is a little expensive to upgrade mid-contract. Thus, he either has to hold out until he burns some time off his contract, or he can pick up a cheap Q5 outright from overseas.

    From a CIO perspective, many large enterprises such as banks have also upgrade cycles which take large budgets to undertake and implement. My last employer, one of the 5 big Canadian banks, was not upgrading to BB10 until the fall because they upgraded to the 9900 not too long ago.

    This doesn't not mean that BBRY not selling many devices can be excused, I'm just trying to temper the expectations for this quarter.

    Thoughts?
    Compaqee, bungaboy and rarsen like this.
    05-28-13 10:54 AM
  22. morlock_man's Avatar
    It's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.

    Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.
    First off, you were looking at a different dataset. I was looking at mobile vendors, not mobile OS. I don't know if they're counting BB10 and BBOS in the same category so I used 'Mobile vendor (beta)' instead.

    Second, I don't see why you think the Canadian data is flawed. The spike in May that you're looking at falls in line with the launch of the Q10, which has been reported to be a better seller than the Z10. And since the other two platforms decreased over that period, I think the 50% migration rate is looking pretty truthful.
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 10:54 AM
  23. Bugmapper's Avatar
    I believe there's some factual indicators. Screen size (hardware detection) may be a good one, especially since Z10 has a weird (1280X768) one.
    So, in Canada, if you compare the year (Jan-May) and May alone ... (and then I'll let you play around with maths !)
    P.S: it's ALL mobile (I believe incl. tablets).

    Following on SF's look at screen resolution....

    I had a look at the recent increase of RIM in Canada and compared it to screen resolution over the same time period. As you can see, it does not appear that the Z10 is the cause of the increase, but another device (presumably the Q10 but it is not square???) but I do not understand the resolutions... could Blackberry be working on a different device, or are these tablets, or activated cars??? Hmmm... any devs out there clear this up?
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-new-2.jpg
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-new-1.jpg
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 10:56 AM
  24. leafs123's Avatar
    Following on SF's look at screen resolution....

    I had a look at the recent increase of RIM in Canada and compared it to screen resolution over the same time period. As you can see, it does not appear that the Z10 is the cause of the increase, but another device (presumably the Q10 but it is not square???) but I do not understand the resolutions... could Blackberry be working on a different device, or are these tablets, or activated cars??? Hmmm... any devs out there clear this up?
    Q10 is 720x720. You got the Z10 right and I think the other ones are low end Curves.
    Superfly_FR and bungaboy like this.
    05-28-13 10:59 AM
  25. AngryEdmontonian's Avatar
    It's not that weird, the Nexus 4, Lumia 920, Lumia 720 use that resolution.

    Look at the data for Canada, obviously is unreliable right now and It could be inflating world data.
    StatCounter Global Stats - Browser, OS, Search Engine including Mobile Market Share

    Using data from statcounter for estimates of sales in a range of weeks and even months is not a good idea.
    Yeah but what are the total sales for those phones? I know the Nexus 4 is 375,000 total units, so about half of the Z10's in Q4
    05-28-13 11:00 AM
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