View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1107. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.60%
  • No

    414 37.40%
  1. morlock_man's Avatar
    Volume is nice. How will the "you know whos" cover without being noticed?

    Posted via CB10
    Exactly. The dropping volume is excellent.

    And when something happens the makes the shorts cover, the increase in buying volume will send a much stronger signal.

    I really feel like groups are quietly gearing up to pull a prolonged Volkswagen on the shorts.
    Charles Martin1 and bungaboy like this.
    05-28-13 09:08 AM
  2. morlock_man's Avatar
    Not to sure how you get 5m Z10 sales per month from that
    could you elaborate further? thanks....
    .24% increase in marketshare in the last month.

    Over 1 billion smartphone users in the world.

    .24% of 1 billion is 2.4 million.

    Upgrading existing customers wouldn't change the marketshare and Hein's said that they were seeing a 50% turnover rate, so that .24% is likely consumers migrating from an Android or iPhone. So the 2.4 million should be doubled to reflect both upgrading and migrating users.

    Hence, ~5 million.

    And since the month I'm looking at was before the Q10 was launched, the sales have to be Z10 or legacy phones.
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 09:11 AM
  3. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Exactly. The dropping volume is excellent.

    And when something happens the makes the shorts cover, the increase in buying volume will send a much stronger signal.

    I really feel like groups are quietly gearing up to pull a prolonged Volkswagen on the shorts.
    That's the hope.

    Then I'll book my around the world cruise and think about life.
    05-28-13 09:11 AM
  4. kfh227's Avatar
    They appear to be selling the Z10 at a rate of around 5 million a month right now, according to smartphone usage data. If this holds out for the year, even ignoring the launch of the Q10, Q5 and any other devices on the back burner, they'll still unload 60 million phones in a year.

    Low-balling the ASP to $300, that's still $18 billion in revenue. Gross revenue, but still revenue.
    Hard to sell more than they make.

    Posted via CB10
    ItsTheBox likes this.
    05-28-13 09:15 AM
  5. potatoman3's Avatar
    Dip time. On cue.
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 09:16 AM
  6. kfh227's Avatar
    .24% increase in marketshare in the last month.

    Over 1 billion smartphone users in the world.

    .24% of 1 billion is 2.4 million.

    Upgrading existing customers wouldn't change the marketshare and Hein's said that they were seeing a 50% turnover rate, so that .24% is likely consumers migrating from an Android or iPhone. So the 2.4 million should be doubled to reflect both upgrading and migrating users.

    Hence, ~5 million.

    And since the month I'm looking at was before the Q10 was launched, the sales have to be Z10 or legacy phones.
    Something about your math seems like that strange "New Math" I read about

    Posted via CB10
    05-28-13 09:17 AM
  7. morlock_man's Avatar
    Hard to sell more than they make.

    Posted via CB10
    They've been making Z10's since December. They could easily have unloaded a stockpile of them in the last month now that the phone has launched globally.

    But yeah, I shouldn't discount the BBOS devices as well. But I dropped the ASP to reflect varying pricing conditions.
    05-28-13 09:22 AM
  8. morlock_man's Avatar
    Something about your math seems like that strange "New Math" I read about

    Posted via CB10
    It's called 'back of the envelope math.'

    It isn't new.
    OMGitworks and bungaboy like this.
    05-28-13 09:25 AM
  9. bungaboy's Avatar
    10:30 dip.
    05-28-13 09:28 AM
  10. cjcampbell's Avatar
    Seems to be a bunch of places reporting on Fixmo getting approval as an MDM solution. Everything seems to be a cut and paste and they are saying that they are the "only" provider to get clearance to manage iOS, Android, and BlackBerry.

    Fixmo Supports U.S. Government STIG for Apple iOS, Becomes Only Vendor to Enable Compliant Use of Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry - Bloomberg

    The news comes as the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) has approved
    the Apple iOS 6 STIG – security guidelines dictating approved usage of
    hardware and software products within the DoD. In addition to Apple iOS, the
    DoD recently approved the use of Samsung KNOX devices, including its Galaxy S4
    smartphone, and has allowed the use of BlackBerry devices by employees when
    coupled with Fixmo Sentinel for device integrity verification. With full
    support for the Apple iOS STIG, Fixmo becomes the first mobile security vendor
    that can enable DoD agencies to address the full range of security
    requirements across the mobile STIGs for Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry
    devices.
    05-28-13 09:32 AM
  11. leafs123's Avatar
    That's the hope.

    Then I'll book my around the world cruise and think about life.
    Better not be on of those cruise ships lol
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 09:33 AM
  12. acdne's Avatar
    I get the funny feeling shorts are going to increase their shipment estimates last minute before earnings, but not raise their price price targets. That's how mental they are.
    lol

    http://www.valuewalk.com/2013/05/res...uarter-report/
    05-28-13 09:35 AM
  13. morganplus8's Avatar
    Some people need a chart around here!

    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-rim-may-28-2013-chart.jpg

    We are neutral to bullish this morning having broke through that downtrend line on Friday. We didn't get the news we needed for a big snap back but that's okay too. This morning we are above the 3-dma and right on top of the 5-dma and when we close above the 5-dma, we rally from there. And so a close above the $ 14.54/shr mark sets us up for a run to the 50-dma, at $ 14.83/shr, next stop, and then to the center line of the Bollinger Bands at $ 15.14/shr. Without much effort, this is our path this week.

    We also have 4-weeks to go to get to Q1, plenty of speculation on what those numbers will be like and it would seem impossible not to hear from some outside source on some data between now and then.

    What's all this talk about Nova Scotia! I keep hearing about Cole Harbour these days, like they have a great hockey team or something like that, and, a guy named TJ Grant, knocking out Gray Maynard in the UFC 160 MMA fight on Saturday night.

    T.J. Grant earns UFC title shot with TKO victory over Gray Maynard - Sports - The News

    The hockey thing at Cole Harbour too:
    Memorial Cup champs are home | The Chronicle Herald

    The question is this, should BlackBerry consider moving its head office to Cole Harbour? Question goes to Charles.
    05-28-13 09:35 AM
  14. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Seems to be a bunch of places reporting on Fixmo getting approval as an MDM solution. Everything seems to be a cut and paste and they are saying that they are the "only" provider to get clearance to manage iOS, Android, and BlackBerry.

    Fixmo Supports U.S. Government STIG for Apple iOS, Becomes Only Vendor to Enable Compliant Use of Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry - Bloomberg

    The news comes as the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) has approved
    the Apple iOS 6 STIG – security guidelines dictating approved usage of
    hardware and software products within the DoD. In addition to Apple iOS, the
    DoD recently approved the use of Samsung KNOX devices, including its Galaxy S4
    smartphone, and has allowed the use of BlackBerry devices by employees when
    coupled with Fixmo Sentinel for device integrity verification. With full
    support for the Apple iOS STIG, Fixmo becomes the first mobile security vendor
    that can enable DoD agencies to address the full range of security
    requirements across the mobile STIGs for Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry
    devices.
    I'm ignoring that stuff until something official comes out in July.
    cjcampbell and MrBurns2U like this.
    05-28-13 09:37 AM
  15. morlock_man's Avatar
    Seems to be a bunch of places reporting on Fixmo getting approval as an MDM solution. Everything seems to be a cut and paste and they are saying that they are the "only" provider to get clearance to manage iOS, Android, and BlackBerry.

    Fixmo Supports U.S. Government STIG for Apple iOS, Becomes Only Vendor to Enable Compliant Use of Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry - Bloomberg

    The news comes as the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) has approved
    the Apple iOS 6 STIG – security guidelines dictating approved usage of
    hardware and software products within the DoD. In addition to Apple iOS, the
    DoD recently approved the use of Samsung KNOX devices, including its Galaxy S4
    smartphone, and has allowed the use of BlackBerry devices by employees when
    coupled with Fixmo Sentinel for device integrity verification. With full
    support for the Apple iOS STIG, Fixmo becomes the first mobile security vendor
    that can enable DoD agencies to address the full range of security
    requirements across the mobile STIGs for Apple, Samsung and BlackBerry
    devices.
    Samsung owns a near 5% stake in Fixmo since January.

    It's funny that the iPhone and Samsung devices were approved for use... where as the Blackberries are only 'allowed' when paired with their own Fixmo software.

    As though BlackBerries weren't the only approved phones prior to the iPhone and Galaxy lines getting approved.

    Also, Fixmo is heavily staffed by former Rimjobbers. Would be interesting to see if they've absconded with any intellectual property while building their enterprise during the last 4 years.
    05-28-13 09:38 AM
  16. Compaqee's Avatar
    They appear to be selling the Z10 at a rate of around 5 million a month right now, according to smartphone usage data. If this holds out for the year, even ignoring the launch of the Q10, Q5 and any other devices on the back burner, they'll still unload 60 million phones in a year.

    Low-balling the ASP to $300, that's still $18 billion in revenue. Gross revenue, but still revenue.
    Shut the front door! 5M Z10's? That's not even including the Q10. Not to be a party pooper but sounds highly inflated? Would you be able to provide a link - I'll literally crap my pants if that's true.

    If there is a link floating around, please pump that into the social media forums $BBRY $BB (Credible source of course) or it'll just set up BB for a bear raid on false news.

    But damn 60million Z10s in a year would be amazing + let's say a 1:1 ratio of Q10's - 120m BB10 devices not even including Q5 roll out.

    Highly unlikely but nonetheless one can dream.
    05-28-13 09:39 AM
  17. tiziano27's Avatar
    .24% increase in marketshare in the last month.

    Over 1 billion smartphone users in the world.

    .24% of 1 billion is 2.4 million.

    Upgrading existing customers wouldn't change the marketshare and Hein's said that they were seeing a 50% turnover rate, so that .24% is likely consumers migrating from an Android or iPhone. So the 2.4 million should be doubled to reflect both upgrading and migrating users.

    Hence, ~5 million.

    And since the month I'm looking at was before the Q10 was launched, the sales have to be Z10 or legacy phones.
    Statcounter's data is unreliable, you can use it for long term tendency, not for short term estimates.

    This are the weekly numbers, the week is expressed in ordinal numbers 1 to 52.

    Date BB
    2013-12 3.28
    2013-13 3.26
    2013-14 3.09
    2013-15 3.15
    2013-16 3.32
    2013-17 3.44
    2013-18 3.46
    2013-19 3.5
    2013-20 3.43
    2013-21 3.52
    2013-22 3.45

    The share could fall 0.17 from 3.45 to 3.28 in one week as it happened between weeks 13 and 14.

    The margin of error of this measure is too big, and the bias is worst.
    05-28-13 09:45 AM
  18. Charles Martin1's Avatar

    What's all this talk about Nova Scotia! I keep hearing about Cole Harbour these days, like they have a great hockey team or something like that, and, a guy named TJ Grant, knocking out Gray Maynard in the UFC 160 MMA fight on Saturday night.

    T.J. Grant earns UFC title shot with TKO victory over Gray Maynard - Sports - The News

    The hockey thing at Cole Harbour too:
    Memorial Cup champs are home | The Chronicle Herald

    The question is this, should BlackBerry consider moving its head office to Cole Harbour? Question goes to Charles.
    LOL...Sidney Crosby is from Cole Harbour. Not sure about the rest of the goings on though.

    Nah, pretty sure BlackBerry is best kept where it is. We do have a BlackBerry operation here in Bedford and as far as I know, the Provincial economic development agency here contributed $10 million to their activities last fall.

    M+8, any thoughts on how that lower Bollinger band is breaking to the south? My thoughts are, from a worst case scenario, if we continue to go without news we're going to mirror April but with a higher low.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    05-28-13 09:46 AM
  19. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Samsung owns a near 5% stake in Fixmo since January.

    It's funny that the iPhone and Samsung devices were approved for use... where as the Blackberries are only 'allowed' when paired with their own Fixmo software.

    As though BlackBerries weren't the only approved phones prior to the iPhone and Galaxy lines getting approved.

    Also, Fixmo is heavily staffed by former Rimjobbers. Would be interesting to see if they've absconded with any intellectual property while building their enterprise during the last 4 years.
    Yeah. This thing has been pushed back a couple of times, and while that does happen, I really think that Apple is getting some extra time to get their sh!t together so Obama can ensure they get some nuggets. I believe Apple had agreed earlier this year to bring some manufacturing back into the US and this game is about give and take...In keeping with tradition, democrat government (especially ones over a barrel) tend to give more than they take, which means extra rewards for Apple.
    Last edited by Charles Martin1; 05-28-13 at 10:10 AM.
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 09:51 AM
  20. take99's Avatar
    05-28-13 09:55 AM
  21. morlock_man's Avatar
    Statcounter's data is unreliable, you can use it for long term tendency, not for short term estimates.

    This are the weekly numbers, the week is expressed in ordinal numbers 1 to 52.

    Date BB
    2013-12 3.28
    2013-13 3.26
    2013-14 3.09
    2013-15 3.15
    2013-16 3.32
    2013-17 3.44
    2013-18 3.46
    2013-19 3.5
    2013-20 3.43
    2013-21 3.52
    2013-22 3.45

    The share could fall 0.17 from 3.45 to 3.28 in one week as it happened between weeks 13 and 14.

    The margin of error of this measure is too big, and the bias is worst.
    If you look at the dataset closely enough, of course you're going to see larger flucuations in the dataset. You're basically looking at it under a magnifying glass.

    I looked at a month to month trend. Which I assumed would average the values for the month, not just pick one arbitrary number.

    As someone else mentioned in earlier postings, the usage data reflects data obtained from website hit counters, not actual sales numbers. A lot of phones could go unreported by these numbers simply by not being used.

    But even if you assumed a +-0.05 margin of error, the number of sales still goes to somewhere between 3-6 million in the last month.
    morganplus8 likes this.
    05-28-13 09:58 AM
  22. Kid Vibe's Avatar
    The BBRY Café.  [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares]-973741_10151406097201701_1697716403_n.jpg
    Shinjuku at night, in search of a bite

    What up peeps... Well, seems as the stock has really hit a flatline these past few weeks... Oh well, hopefully we can get some great news coming out soon.
    05-28-13 09:58 AM
  23. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Well, I guess by adopting Microsoft they're no longer going to have one of the best systems in the market. Sounds simple.
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-28-13 10:04 AM
  24. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    A spokesman for Chrysler declined to comment on Microsoft’s statement that it will be used in future products. But he did say Chrysler is happy with its current QNX-based Uconnect system.
    So, low grade cars for MS, high grade for QNX-BB10.
    Kind of acknowledgment, isn't it ?
    Also, the article is raving about Uconnect under QNX ...
    Not that bad, in fact, IMHO.
    05-28-13 10:04 AM
  25. bungaboy's Avatar
    It's called 'back of the envelope math.'

    It isn't new.
    Years ago was on the back of a pack of Players cigarettes before they added calendars then all those gory pictures of lungs/bad gums/teeth, etc. LoL

    I had had that monkey off my back for 13 years now. Thank goodness.
    05-28-13 10:06 AM
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