View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1106. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    693 62.66%
  • No

    413 37.34%
  1. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    a failure !!! remember wall st. was expecting to sell 18 mil -20mil to be profitable before the cost cutting by RIM
    Wall Street is so full of sh!t. I pay zero attention to anything from them. If we paid any attention to Wall Street we'd all be crying over the 40% we'd have already lost on AAPL.
    Bugmapper and Tinomane like this.
    05-27-13 09:05 PM
  2. take99's Avatar
    Look a couple pages back even the bear at National bank is predicting 8+ mill. So I think we need to be well North of that to surprise, 10 mill would do some serious damage to the shorts.
    05-27-13 09:12 PM
  3. Scott Lefebvre's Avatar
    No, I just figure with 6 million devices sold in Q4 and this even though the Z10 was barely sold. Now there should be a marked improvement by Q1 and I see 10 million at least. It's going to be much better again by Q2.

    I say I'd unload my shares if they don't get at least 10 million sold because I believe there is a very small chance that they will only sell that many and I would be VERY disappointed.
    They are only producing 2m
    Bb10 devices per month so we're led to believe. Legacy devices are going to decline from 5m to? So at the most logic tells us a maximum of 11m units sold, so I don't see anything wrong with 9 or 10 m
    sold and increasing from there.
    At 40 to 50 m devices sold this year I think BlackBerry will be doing great, especially with higher margins on bb10 devices. I hope your wright but I think your a little optimistic.
    Charles Martin1 likes this.
    05-27-13 09:17 PM
  4. VeGiTo's Avatar
    10M devices shipped will be a very good quarter with a very healthy increase from the previous quarter. But I think that is the best case scenario so don't be disappointed if they don't hit it.

    I'm modelling 3-4M Z10, 1-2M Q10, and 4M BBOS phones for a total of 8-10M devices. I might have undershot on the BBOS devices but they are quite irrelevant anyway due to their near 0 margin, but I'm pretty confident about the 4-6M BB10 estimate based on their production rate (2-2.5M/month) and the extra inventory they would hold on hand while in the midst of launching in other countries.
    05-27-13 09:17 PM
  5. llcool's Avatar
    Look a couple pages back even the bear at National bank is predicting 8+ mill. So I think we need to be well North of that to surprise, 10 mill would do some serious damage to the shorts.
    The point about wall st. expectation is the profitability of RIM (turn around), and remember guys BES 10 release is july 1 so alot of company waiting for there order after the release so if 5 - 6 mil I would be ok.(its brand new OS needs time).
    Charles Martin1 and rarsen like this.
    05-27-13 09:18 PM
  6. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    They are only producing 2m
    Bb10 devices per month so we're led to believe. Legacy devices are going to decline from 5m to? So at the most logic tells us a maximum of 11m units sold, so I don't see anything wrong with 9 or 10 m
    sold and increasing from there.
    At 40 to 50 m devices sold this year I think BlackBerry will be doing great, especially with higher margins on bb10 devices. I hope your wright but I think your a little optimistic.
    No, I believe that Thor has said twice since the 2 million a month statement that they have increased production. I'm thinking it's closer to 3-4 million a month now.
    Scott Lefebvre likes this.
    05-27-13 09:19 PM
  7. kfh227's Avatar
    BlackBerry sales to hit 8.2 million this quarter: Analyst - Enterprise Insights - IT World Canada Blogs

    Sorry won't let me copy and paste from the site on my Z10.

    Posted via CB10
    Sqpppwwwtttt .......

    That's the sound of my soda splatting on my monitor.

    I was expecting 7+5+ million BB10 phones for the quarter. And hoping for 8+6+ million but don't expect it. If we actually get 8.2 million I will be ecstatic.


    EDIT: Wait, 4 million BB10 phones in he quarter? I don't believe that for a second. Is this the shorts last ditch effort at making bull**** news?

    EDIT 2: Messed up my expectations and hopes.
    05-27-13 09:24 PM
  8. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    C'mon guys, I'm not overly optimistic very often...lol
    CDM76 and matthewriedle like this.
    05-27-13 09:28 PM
  9. Scott Lefebvre's Avatar
    No, I believe that Thor has said twice since the 2 million a month statement that they have increased production. I'm thinking it's closer to 3-4 million a month now.
    Well if your correct I better get another bunch of cash jammed in there before the Q1 report because the sp will explode. I hope your wright!! I'm holding my shares for another few quarters either way. ; )
    Charles Martin1 and bungaboy like this.
    05-27-13 09:31 PM
  10. Scott Lefebvre's Avatar
    C'mon guys, I'm not overly optimistic very often...lol
    That's true we'll give you that one. Lol
    05-27-13 09:34 PM
  11. slipstream89's Avatar
    Im holding until june hopefully by then its $20+

    Well if your correct I better get another bunch of cash jammed in there before the Q1 report because the sp will explode. I hope your wright!! I'm holding my shares for another few quarters either way. ; )
    05-27-13 09:35 PM
  12. CDM76's Avatar
    Some pretty good articles out there this evening. Enough to lift the SP tomorrow I wonder...
    I hope so!!! We need to start the upward drift soon or else we aren't going to hit more than $18 on ER

    Posted via CB10
    05-27-13 09:39 PM
  13. Scott Lefebvre's Avatar
    Im holding until june hopefully by then its $20+
    I hope it's $20+ to by June, but I believe it will go Way higher after September..
    05-27-13 09:40 PM
  14. CDM76's Avatar
    I hope it's $20+ to by June, but I believe it will go Way higher after September..
    Wish could hold mine that long.Holding off long as possible but looks like end of June it will be. Then will need to slowly start rebuilding from scratch again.


    Posted via CB10
    Last edited by CDM76; 05-27-13 at 10:38 PM.
    Scott Lefebvre likes this.
    05-27-13 09:43 PM
  15. slipstream89's Avatar
    my mistake, didn't mean to say june i meant Q2 so september (just woke up) lol

    I hope it's $20+ to by June, but I believe it will go Way higher after September..
    Scott Lefebvre likes this.
    05-27-13 09:46 PM
  16. slipstream89's Avatar
    my apologies if this has been posted, I didnt get a chance to read all of todays posts
    Lifting The Veil On Deutsche Bank's Flawed BlackBerry Study - Seeking Alpha

    someone said michael collins is a guy worth paying attention too right?
    BlackistheBerry and bungaboy like this.
    05-27-13 09:48 PM
  17. kfh227's Avatar
    No, I believe that Thor has said twice since the 2 million a month statement that they have increased production. I'm thinking it's closer to 3-4 million a month now.
    I thought it was an analyst that said 2 million based on supply chain checks. Then BBRY said they increased production twice. Or it might have been BBRY once and an analyst again. Or all analyst comments.

    Point is, we should really track down who said what.
    05-27-13 09:49 PM
  18. Shanerredflag's Avatar
    Thor definitely said increased production to meet demand...then went on to say scaling production to meet demand is not an issue, however takes a hit to get ramped up.
    Can't find the link but comments were made just after his speech accepting his CanTech Letter .

    Posted via CB10
    05-27-13 10:01 PM
  19. take99's Avatar
    It was Misek. Said production was 2 mill bb10 per month. Then after his Asia trip he said they increased production to 'more than two'. Thats why I think 6 mill + bb10 with 4 mill legacy is realistic. Anything north of that would be exceptional. Remember new legacy devices will provide service revs for the next year or two as well so they are not useless.
    05-27-13 10:02 PM
  20. kfh227's Avatar
    It was Misek. Said production was 2 mill bb10 per month. Then after his Asia trip he said they increased production to 'more than two'. Thats why I think 6 mill + bb10 with 4 mill legacy is realistic. Anything north of that would be exceptional. Remember new legacy devices will provide service revs for the next year or two as well so they are not useless.
    Ya, that's where I remember the 2 million/month and 2+ million/month number coming from.

    I never remmeber anyone from BBRY saying anything.

    Well, I'm sure we'll know more in about 1 month.
    CDM76 likes this.
    05-27-13 10:09 PM
  21. chrysaurora's Avatar
    For June 28 call, my guess is 4M BlackBerry 10 devices and 2 M BBOS devices.

    Assuming $450 ASP, 4M BB10 devices should bring $1.8 BILLION in revenue.

    2M BBOS probably won't bring anything as they are known to be selling at near break-even point.

    Posted via CB 10 app on my Q10!
    05-27-13 10:12 PM
  22. kfh227's Avatar
    For historical purposes, 2011 say revenues were at their peak. Just shy of $20 billion on the year. Last year, Revs were down to $11B.

    If BB10 devices bring $2B in revenues that;s $8B for the year. This ignores QNX, BES, legacy devices and anything else? Oh, app sales, music sales, etc.

    If BB10 is well received, we are looking at $10B in revenues form BB10 sales alone.

    If we can get back to $20B in revs, we'll proably get a market cap that is pretty close to that. With no debt, we can add on that cash/equivs to that number. So, $22B. About 500 million shares so we should be able to get to $45/share quite easily. now, if we get a short squeeze ...... Hrrrmmmmmm retirement!
    Superfly_FR, rarsen and bungaboy like this.
    05-27-13 10:35 PM
  23. Dapper37's Avatar
    No, just wanted to be absolutely clear so no one is investing on mistaken information. Everyone has been waiting for the Pentagon's decision on this thread so I wanted to make sure people were not misunderstanding.
    Your right.
    If I ever post incorrect information, I'll be more then thankful to be corrected.
    The #1 mistake investors in general make, is to assume they understand information that is being presented to them, second only to relying on others for their information.
    So with out understanding the difference between The DOD and the DND, in this case would be one mistake. Relying on that mistake and not actually hitting the link where the information is given in more detail would be a second mistake.



    Posted via CB10
    CDM76, matthewriedle and bungaboy like this.
    05-27-13 10:49 PM
  24. koolrosh's Avatar
    No, I just figure with 6 million devices sold in Q4 and this even though the Z10 was barely sold. Now there should be a marked improvement by Q1 and I see 10 million at least. It's going to be much better again by Q2.

    I say I'd unload my shares if they don't get at least 10 million sold because I believe there is a very small chance that they will only sell that many and I would be VERY disappointed.
    You're setting yourself up for disappointment my friend. Those are very optimistic estimates. If BlackBerry manages to sell even have that many BB10 devices in Q1, then the stock will double.

    Posted via CB10
    m0de25 and Scott Lefebvre like this.
    05-27-13 11:46 PM
  25. take99's Avatar
    Another SA

    Hard To Borrow Stocks And How They Get That Way - Seeking Alpha

    Next up, BlackBerry (BBRY). We think the company is just about to blossom here in the US with the release of the Qwerty physical keyboard Q10 product on Verizon (VZ). We are seeing Verizon Wireless commercials on FIOS cable television channels and have reported we think the companies are getting cozier, especially with VZ picking BBRY handsets for their 10,000 employees. We have also reported the stock is getting harder to borrow, with some wire houses rationing availability of the stock for borrowing and the negative rebate is 8.5-9%
    bungaboy and YangFui like this.
    05-27-13 11:54 PM
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