View Poll Results: Did you buy shares ?

Voters
1110. You may not vote on this poll
  • Yes, I'm acting now !

    694 62.52%
  • No

    416 37.48%
  1. bungaboy's Avatar
    The hair on the back of my neck is indicating there may be some "sleeper cell" activity. Kinda, sorta, maybe.
    cjcampbell and Shanerredflag like this.
    05-22-13 11:10 AM
  2. z10fido's Avatar
    Sorry guys can't talk I am the perfect trader I buy right at the low and sell at the high. I do this daily. No I am not a billionaire, why do you ask?

    Posted via CB10
    05-22-13 11:11 AM
  3. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    you guys probably saw, but CB has an article on Q5 pre-reg opening in the UK. Looks like this will come to market fairly quickly should add to the ER after next.
    Hello everyone... LONG time follower, first time registered user!
    Here's how I played BBRY today - bought at $14.52, sold at the head bump at $14.84.
    Bought back in at $14.63 - will sell if it gets back above $14.80

    Stay long - or trade the trends!
    Welcome, btw.
    Dapper37 likes this.
    05-22-13 11:13 AM
  4. bungaboy's Avatar
    There once was an expression/question. . . . "Does a Bear $h!t in the woods"

    The appropriate response is now . . . . . "No, the Bear $h!ts in I support BBRY and I buy shares ! thread"

    Also the term "Bull$h!t" has, effective immediately, been replaced with "Bear$h!t"
    05-22-13 11:14 AM
  5. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Ok guys,
    Bears at work. Cannot count the legion of "news" with negative "reports".
    Mostly bull bear$h|t but they're everywhere.
    Just relax and grab some shares for cheap if you can afford it.
    This can't last forever ... Winter 2013 : "you sang ? Well, we dance now !"

    Edit: in the meantime, spend some energy on shat pages comments
    take99, bungaboy and Bugmapper like this.
    05-22-13 11:17 AM
  6. greggebhardt's Avatar
    hmm... That obvious?
    Maybe I was mistaken!
    tygros likes this.
    05-22-13 11:17 AM
  7. matthewriedle's Avatar
    Things can get worst. The markets in which BlackBerry operate are very liquid, things change fast. It's perfectly possible that sales of handsets could drop to less than 2m and a better solution for MDM could emerge.

    How could BlackBerry cover operating cost sand restructuring costs after this shock? The same way Nokia did, burning cash reserves, selling the buildings, selling the patents.
    Ok, I can see you like playing Devils advocate and on the handset side, you could be right. I think you will be wrong, but you could be right as well.
    Now, on the MDM side.. I think you are wrong. There is a rather large moat there that no one else has and that is Blackberrys NOC. Apple, Google and Samsung havent even attempted to replicate it which should tell you something as to the barrier to entry. That is a key strategic advantage that Thor seems very keen on leveraging which is why I am keen on Thor.
    05-22-13 11:23 AM
  8. z10fido's Avatar
    Maybe one day without bull****ers like Misek and bear balls like detweiller would be nice. Out of the two Misek is more annoying.

    Posted via CB10
    05-22-13 11:24 AM
  9. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Man, after hearing Bernanke this morning and his response to questions, I have to say that the US economy is officially a rudderless boat. Not good.
    Bugmapper, zyben and Shanerredflag like this.
    05-22-13 11:25 AM
  10. greggebhardt's Avatar
    Man, after hearing Bernanke this morning and his response to questions, I have to say that the US economy is officially a rudderless boat. Not good.
    There is be no way to "ease back into reality" when he stops his pumping. The results will be hard and worldwide.

    Please excuse us as we have lost control of our government!
    Bugmapper, zyben and Shanerredflag like this.
    05-22-13 11:29 AM
  11. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Maybe one day without bull****ers like Misek and bear balls like detweiller would be nice. Out of the two Misek is more annoying.

    Posted via CB10
    The trouble with Misek is that it appears he only pipes up after the bears come raiding (which was initially good) but with virtually only him doing that and not having anything further add to the SP, despite his praises, I fear that he is starting to lack any further influence.
    cjcampbell likes this.
    05-22-13 11:29 AM
  12. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    [End of political - even gentle and nice - Section]

    Thank you !
    05-22-13 11:31 AM
  13. matthewriedle's Avatar
    Man, after hearing Bernanke this morning and his response to questions, I have to say that the US economy is officially a rudderless boat. Not good.
    The longer they stay rudderless, the longer QE keeps going, the harder the bull runs.
    Charles Martin1 likes this.
    05-22-13 11:34 AM
  14. BB_Trader's Avatar
    am i the only bear in the room today?

    Big Ben, what a joke, right many of the posts in this forum are, the USA is hurt'n, tick, tick, tick ....
    05-22-13 11:36 AM
  15. spiller's Avatar
    Just sitting at my desk looking for patterns....

    Attachment 164112

    I can count to three!
    Looks like a good pattern to me. Good entry point right now....Q10 US release within next month, earnings within 5wks, DOD decision within 5wks.
    05-22-13 11:42 AM
  16. morlock_man's Avatar
    I'm still thinking about this coming Monday.

    Look the previous Thanksgiving and MLK day. Both days that pushed the SP to a double top while the NASDAQ was closed.
    05-22-13 11:58 AM
  17. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    am i the only bear in the room today?

    Big Ben, what a joke, right many of the posts in this forum are, the USA is hurt'n, tick, tick, tick ....
    I've been asking some to chill out regarding your posts ... may I suggest you do the same and stop teasing provocation, please?
    Thank you very much.
    05-22-13 12:05 PM
  18. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    I'm still thinking about this coming Monday.

    Look the previous Thanksgiving and MLK day. Both days that pushed the SP to a double top while the NASDAQ was closed.
    That would be nice but even nicer if it holds.
    bungaboy likes this.
    05-22-13 12:05 PM
  19. take99's Avatar
    Nice numbers here

    BlackBerry 10 Adds 20,000 Apps in 2 Months, Set to Surpass Windows Phone 8 in App Quantity





    At BlackBerry Live last week, VP of Developer Relations Alec Saunders announced that there are now 120,000 BB 10 apps in BlackBerry World. This was a steady increase from the 70,000 apps on January 30th, and the 100,000 apps less than 2 months ago on March 21. Including PlayBook and BlackBerry OS apps, there are now just under 250,000 BlackBerry apps.

    BB 10 Adds 20,000 apps in 2 Months; WP 8 Adds 25,000 apps in 7 Months

    At this rate, BlackBerry 10 looks set to surpass Windows Phone 8 in app quantity within the next 3-4 months. As of May 11, there are now 145,000 apps in the Windows Phone store. Whereas BB 10 added 20,000 apps in less than 2 months (March 21 to May 14), WP 8 added 25,000 apps in 7 months (Oct 29 to May 11).

    Windows Phone 7 was launched in October 2010, 2 years and 3 months before BlackBerry 10. Meanwhile, Windows Phone 8 was launched in October, 2012, giving it a 3-month head start over BB 10.

    BB 10 Solidly Positioned in 3rd Place in Developer Sentiment



    BlackBerry’s Alec Saunders not only talked about app quantity, but also about developer sentiment. A report by Pivot Point Research indicates that last May, 47% of BlackBerry developers recommended BlackBerry World, but that number has jumped to 88% this May.

    Research by Strategy Analytics indicates that the BB 10 developer program is receiving the highest score in the industry – 8/10. In fact, 39% of BB 10 developers gave the program a perfect score of 10/10. Finally, a study by Vision Mobile shows that BlackBerry 10 (at 38%) is solidly positioned in 3rd place behind iOS and Android (44%) in developer intent.
    05-22-13 12:10 PM
  20. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    Research by Strategy Analytics indicates that the BB 10 developer program is receiving the highest score in the industry – 8/10. In fact, 39% of BB 10 developers gave the program a perfect score of 10/10. Finally, a study by Vision Mobile shows that BlackBerry 10 (at 38%) is solidly positioned in 3rd place behind iOS and Android (44%) in developer intent.
    ^THIS is huge !
    (sry, out of thanks for today)
    take99, bungaboy, rarsen and 2 others like this.
    05-22-13 12:14 PM
  21. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Great news. It all points in the right direction like, "a thousand points of light ". LOL
    05-22-13 12:15 PM
  22. OMGitworks's Avatar
    TD is back up, I bet they were hacked. Time to short BB and oil. Have a nice day. Such bs to see the DOW up 109 points.
    Don't fight the Fed
    05-22-13 12:17 PM
  23. take99's Avatar
    More info on the downgrade

    BlackBerry: Exane BNPP Cuts to Sell on Gradual Decline of Services Revenue - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

    BlackBerry: Exane BNPP Cuts to Sell on Gradual Decline of Services Revenue

    By Tiernan Ray

    Analyst Alexander Peterc of Exane BNPParibas today cuts his rating on shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) to Underperform from Neutral, although he raised his price target to $10 from $7, after trimming estimates, writing that the company’s transition is threatened by the “disappearance of legacy profit pools” in the smartphone industry.

    BlackBerry shares are down 7 cents, or half a percent, at $14.70.

    Peterc lumps in his comments with similarly skeptical observations about Nokia (NOK), whose shares he also rates Underperform, viewing both companies as “former leaders” who are trying for the “modest third ecosystem status” behind Apple‘s (AAPL) iOS and Google‘s (GOOG) Android:

    Nokia and BlackBerry are similar in several ways: both were recognised leaders in the mobile industry until the emergence of the ‘modern’ smartphone (iPhone and Android); both had to shed antiquated operating systems in their late and painful transformation, ultimately abandoning hopes of leadership; both have lowered their ambitions to the modest goal of becoming the ‘third ecosystem’ of choice for consumers and operators.

    The “makeover efforts” have paid off “partially,” writes Peterc, fueling “spectacular” stock recovery in the case of BlackBerry shares. However, “While the BB10 device news flow is likely to remain the primary driver for the shares in the short-term, BlackBerry’s long-term profitability prospects hinge essentially on the longevity of its Service revenues, which are unsustainable, in our view.”

    Peterc outlines how he views the “legacy” sources of profit as not sustainable for BlackBerry and Nokia:

    Nokia and BlackBerry share another striking similarity. Both are funding their makeover attempts from unsustainable legacy profit pools. Basic phones accounted for 2/3 of Nokia D&S gross profit in 2012. In 2013e, this proportion falls to a still-high 47%. Basic phones are now a market in terminal decline (around -20% annually at present), under pressure from increasingly affordable Android smartphones. Nokia’s position is under most threat in the higher end of the basic phone segment (feature-phones and Asha full-touch devices), which is instrumental to profit generation in Mobile Phones. Service & Software generated 102% of BlackBerry’s group gross profit in FY13 (to end-February) while “Hardware and Other” sales were below their COGS, as disclosed in the company’s 40-F. Services (1/3 of group revenue, 93% of Software & Services) are fees paid by BB device users to the vendor for services that BlackBerry runs on its network operation centres (NOC). With a gross margin of 85%, Software & Services are a vital profit pool for BlackBerry.

    Peterc thinks the consumer side of BlackBerry’s service is “going away for good,” while BlackBerry’s attempt with its enterprise base to be a vendor of “mobile device management” technology will not prove easy:

    As BlackBerry switches its subscriber base away from (legacy) BB7 to BB10 devices, the consumer part of service revenue will disappear. BB10 consumer users no longer connect to email, internet and messaging services via a BlackBerry-specific service called BIS (BlackBerry Internet Service) but via a plain internet subscription just like any other smartphone […] BlackBerry management acknowledged this, but believes the vendor can recoup some of these losses via sales of content (applications), which we do not think is realistic (content/app store revenue is minimal as a proportion of total revenue for all hardware vendors, and achieves only low profitability in the best of cases, even at the market leader Apple). Moving away from a proprietary BES franchise that yielded USD1.5bn in annual revenue with 85% gross margins for BlackBerry in FY13 into the MDM market is certainly going to present revenue generation challenges for the vendor. The entire MDM market size reached USD500m in 2012 according to Gartner (USD525m according to the less well-known “Radicati” market intelligence boutique; see chart below), while IDC puts the perhaps slightly bigger “mobile enterprise management” market at USD440m in 2011 – in all instances, all of MDM is only one-third of BlackBerry’s BES revenue. Clearly, the pricing structure of the industry BlackBerry is moving into is very different from the ancient model it is phasing out […] With BB10 and BYOD, corporate IT managers have the professional duty to re- examine all available options for hardware and MDM software. BB10 devices have to compete with Apple and Android vendors for consumer and corporate device purchasing intentions. For a legacy BB corporate account, upgrading to BES 10 offers no clear advantage vs an entirely new MDM platform […] In all, we believe BlackBerry can replicate at best a fraction (several hundred USDm, vs currently USD1.5bn) of its current BES revenue in its transition to an MDM model. Combined with the BIS phase-out, this means that BlackBerry is about to become a “classic” smartphone manufacturer without a service provider aspect, with the necessary operating model downsizing that this transition entails.

    Peterc cut this fiscal year’s estimates to $13.78 billion in revenue and $407 million in Ebit, and 60 cents profit, down from a prior $13.85 billion, $734 million, and $1.04. That is based on sales of 32.98 million handsets, at a gross margin of 34.5%, versus his prior forecast for 32.94 million units at a 36.7% margin.

    For 2015, his revenue estimate actually rises to $13.43 billion, while his Ebit estimate gets cut to $88 million from a prior $492 million estimate, and his EPS estimate goes to 16 cents from a prior 72 cents.

    Despite raising his target, Peterc views the current stock price as baking in unrealistic estimates:

    A reverse-DCF analysis shows that the current valuation of USD15 is compatible with an 8% long-term EBIT margin at BlackBerry, i.e., nearly 3x our estimate of 3%. We believe this level of margin is unlikely given BlackBerry’s long-term revenue structure, which is bound to become hardware-centric while highly lucrative Software and Services are being phased out.

    Peterc’s view is in stark contrast to a bullish view of BlackBerry’s changes in MDM offered last week by Jefferies & Co.’s Peter Misek.
    05-22-13 12:18 PM
  24. Superfly_FR's Avatar
    IDIES (Institute for the Development of Economic and Social Information) publishes a report on "The Making of Economic Information" in France. Ouch! 47% of business journalists admit to being unable to read the accounts of a company and 33% merely to resume press releases without verification.

    And I'm quite sure this might be worse elsewhere too

    Keep reading the good thread gang !!!!
    05-22-13 12:20 PM
  25. Charles Martin1's Avatar
    Well there's all kinds of people with all kinds of positions...Peterc is wrong.
    05-22-13 12:22 PM
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