My comment was just directed to continuing to sell the BB7 Curve here in Canada and the USA. I am surprised that such devices are still sold by the carriers here. The market must be as small as the devices.
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My comment was just directed to continuing to sell the BB7 Curve here in Canada and the USA. I am surprised that such devices are still sold by the carriers here. The market must be as small as the devices.
Well I just picked up more July $14 strike calls. Let the ER do the talking.
volume tells me that this will go up on the day. The snakes need more volume than this to make it do THEIR do, and that hasnt happened. Up we go today.
I just want to to say thank you M+8 for all the TA put, your efforts greatly approciated.
Well, turning out to be a relatively good day. Looking like we're back on track with daily gains...I hope that we get at least two weeks of it.
I think we're in for another round of sideways trading until news comes from BB Live next week.
May 8, 2013 10:59 AM
BlackBerry: Negative Speculation Overdone, Says Macquarie; US Q10 Demand 'Swing Factor'
Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are up 9 cents, or 0.6%, at $14.91, following a report from Macquarie Capital's Kevin Smithen, who reiterates a Neutral rating on the shares, while opining that the stock could go to $17 on a short squeeze following what he views as overly negative sentiment of late.
Smithen is "incrementally more positive," he writes, based on the prospect the Q10 smartphone, which went on sale a week ago Friday, could be a bigger seller than the Z10 released at the end of January. The Q10 is BlackBerry's version of its handset running the BB10 operating system that comes with a physical keyboard, as opposed to the all-touch-screen Z10.
Writes Smithen,
While we remain skeptical on BBRY in the medium to long-term due to ongoing services revenue erosion, we believe the stock is setting up for another tradable bounce in the near term as sentiment has gotten overly bearish, in our opinion. We do not agree with bears that there have been any adjustments to BBRY‟s supply chain and our checks indicate that June qtr. production is actually shaping up to be ahead of initial estimates at key suppliers. We also caution investors not to focus much on „retail checks‟ for the Q10. We believe that this is initially an enterprise product making checks very difficult unless you are polling Fortune Global 500 CIOs. Our discussions with major BBRY carriers however suggest that the Q10 is likely to be a bigger upgrade product for BBRY‟s est. 13.4m Enterprise subs than the Z10 was […] Our forecasts assume that BBRY ships 4.3mm BB10 units in May and just 2.7m in August. We think our August estimate could prove to be conservative based on stronger Enterprise demand for the Q10. US Enterprise sell-in in May could be the swing factor. Verizon Wireless is optimistic on the Q10 and CEO Dan Mead said at an analyst dinner late last month that there appears to be “a lot of pent-up enterprise demand for the QWERTY keyboard product”. We had Sprint mgmt. on the road this month and they were less optimistic on the Q10; however, Sprint has a much lower share of major Enterprise customers than VZW or T.
Smithen's note alludes to negative reports yesterday from Pacific Crest's James Faucette calling into question sales of the Q10, and a negative note from Cleveland Research claiming BlackBerry was pulling back on production of the devices.
Faucette actually released another note this morning, titled "Where did all the Z10s go?" which takes the form of several slides with bullet points.
Faucette writes "U.K. is still the most important BB market; no evidence of outsized BB10 demand in other markets" and adds "Globally, smartphone mobile web-traffic share for BB overall continues to be on a flat to declining trajectory."
looks like we are going to get back to $15
Edit: Nevermind! Going south.
Don't jinx it. Good chance of closing red today. Hope that's not the case but I have learned not to start the victory parade till markets have closed :)
Posted via CB10
Hi everyone!
BBRY's price action in the past 5 days have been quite depressing. However, don't sell! Here's why... although we sold off, we found support at the bottom of the flag pattern. A flag pattern is a continuation pattern formed after a strong rally and... of course it looks like a flag! (Please refer to picture below). As you can see, our rally from April 19-30 put us in overbought levels on the daily with 68.10 RSI and ~93 on the Stochastics. Therefore, this pullback is in fact normal and we are now consolidating within a downward channel or in other words, the flag. Until the price closes below or above the flag, the stock is still in consolidation.
Attachment 159471
Attachment 159472
The measurable price targets on flags uses the height of the base to which is derived from the low of the rally at $13.10 and the highest point of the rally at $16.59 giving us a difference of $3.40. This number is added to the breakout point of the flag. Currently, the stock needs to break flag resistance line at ~15.40 which gives us a price target of 18.90 on a breakout. Completion of this pattern will allow us to test and create a new 52 week high!
Anyways, this is my take on BBRY. No worries, the flag will be resolved soon enough whether up or down. My credentials lay on my Technical Analysis studies made in pursuit of my Charted Market Technician designation. Just wrote level 1 yesterday :P If there are any kinks to my analysis, please feel free to speak up!
Sincerely,
Alex
P.S. Did I mention that the flag is a CONTINUATION pattern? ;)
I like Misek and the other analysts that are beginning to come out in support of these BS negative "channel checks". Always reinforces my belief in BBRY
no matter how long it takes...LONG BBRY SINCE $7.50
Yeah but as long as we're kinda sorta green is better than red. Those little gains don't take long to add up.
My EWJ has been inching along to give me some wonderful gains. The good thing about that one though is that it's a buy and hold, with nice little dividend.
Great. TD Waterhouse is down, this is costing ppl money
I hear that quite often on here.
Well BBRY needs to rest at SOME point! I mean.. we rallied for 10 days.... a pullback of 5 days is more than beyond fair. xD. Although, I have been keeping myself occupied with other investments. HIMX, AAPL, NUGT anyone?
It bother me that good news that comes out to refute the BS bad news yesterday and it's barely up.
Of course Google finance doesn't pick up the good news stories.
Not gonna lie, the quite a few of us have weak hands and its hard to watch BBRY not go anywhere while all these other investments are sky rocketing. We need some bearish investors to convert to bulls, that will definitely pack a punch. As of now though, anything new from the Bulls won't do much because its expected of them. Bears will have greater power because investors are getting impatient.
llcool and others!!
I have to say thank you very much for your kind thoughts! Aside from making my day by reading these comments, I do have to warn you that most people who do things, are really motivated by what comes back to them. I'm no different, I'm not here to solely "give" to others, I'm here because this is a powerful thread. I get so much out of reading what others have to say here. This is like "Yahoo" or "Stockhouse" with a jail system to lock up all of the bums and purify/filter the air! You can come to this site, read this thread, and learn more from such intelligent people from all stages of life. I just represent the older group who have some experience, have been there like the younger group today, hungry for a better life and I have had some success at this game. I contribute just like everyone one else does and just hope to fit in and not feel guilty about taking away all the information that I can every day. I hope I don't come off as bragging about successes, rather I want to confirm that those who give it their all and work hard can win at investing; and to suggest that you can ignore those who would tell you that you are crazy for trying to succeed at this business.
My typical day looks like this:
My family comes first, all energy goes into my family each morning, then, after they are off to their life outside the house, I turn to me.
The first thing I do is "refresh" this thread, I read it first, I don't look at BBRY news, I don't look at PM quotes, or email for that matter, it is all about the "feel" and news from this thread. From this thread I can access everything that happened while I slept, I can see the links to the news events and I can see some PM stock quotes as a result of those inputs by others. That's far better than getting a quote myself or looking at Yahoo headlines from Motley or Fool.
Then we trade, watch the market and go about my business with other issues.
My worst feeling in the world is when I see others fighting or arguing over senseless issues as that places this thread in jeopardy and we don't want to lose this gift do we?
And so I'm here to draw on the experts in their fields too, what chance is there that we can get a clear vision on what the DoD is thinking and doing, at any other site? How would I get such a varied/detailed explanation of MDM/BES10 and BlackBerry's "fit" in that environment without reading comments from several experts here? I can't gain that kind of information from one source and still have all of the crap filtered out of the conversation from the media. I'm just glad to be a part of something like this thread and hope it goes on for years.
I'm going to break tradition and chime in on this. No disrespect to either Bugmapper or Morganplus8 but as someone who could fall under both ur comments I'm going to respectfully disagree slightly on a couple statements here.
@Bugmapper - If one discloses their position in the company it doesn't necessarily have to be to "flaunt". I have no issues disclosing my position in any stock because to me it is just a number. I don't have any issues with people knowing where I stand in any particular stock. It is not a number to make others feel unwarranted vs maybe the person disclosing just thinks of disclosing that number as simple small talk. However as a general statement I agree to what you are saying 100%. Any luxury car (BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Lexus, etc.) has far too many people leasing who can't afford on top of a house they can't mortgage. However, there is tons of wealthy people who own that same car and that same car but you would never be able to tell the difference. Deception is a crazy thing.
@Maroganplus8 - While wealth is relative to "wants and needs", if one is financially sound above and beyond a necessary amount and chooses to spend it I see nothing wrong with that. At the end of the day it depends at what point everyone is in their life. If someone becomes financially successful at a younger age there is a lot more uses then when someone becomes wealthy much later in life. I don't have a house as anyone in Calgary knows traffic during rush hour into downtown is ridiculous and for the time being being close via a condo is good. If you are living in the slums, sure a Ferrari can be a beacon and concern for safety. However, in Calgary there is far less danger in own luxury items (unless you are a drug dealer). Also, owning an expensive car doesn't even have to be in a manner of "bragging". Every little kid has at some point dreamed of having a sports car or a monster truck or something like that. I chose to buy a Ferrari because I was that kid who saw them drive by with my mouth dropping to the floor thinking I want to drive one of those. I chose to buy a Ferrari because it is a fantastic piece of art and an amazing drive. I didn't buy it because I want everyone to stare in with envy, quite honestly I give people only encouraging words when they ask me how I got buy one. As I've mentioned before in this thread, people like "The Kid" who invest solely in BBRY is perfectly fine and normal. Actually I commend taking large risk at a young age vs a later age because it gives you time to learn from mistakes. But, as someone who has to deal with people losing their life savings by choosing to throw it all in one basket at mid age and become homeless or close to, well that is why I chime in to encourage others to look outside the BBRY bubble. Again it all depends on risk tolerance, and where one stands in life. Easy to make up 50k in losses at 25 then 50k in losses at 55. I also agree taht investing is the best job in the world, it is one of the only jobs that changes every day.
Again no disrespect to either, just sharing the opinion of someone who could be considered the "negative" of both your comments. Always nice to see both sides. People seem to have the idea that showing what you have is always a way of bragging and owning expensive things is only to flaunt. A lot of people buy expensive things out of enjoyment for their own purposes vs to become superior to others. However, it is the rich people who flaunt and brag and give their sixteen year old kids ferraris and bmws for their birthdays that ruin it for the rest of us.
Back to the main reason I'm here. If anyone lives in Toronto I might be making a stop in next week to look at a new car, figured I'd take a few people out for a spin if anyone is interested. Not 100% sure yet as it depends on workload. However, PM if you would be interested.
Man, how cool would it be if we were all a bit closer and not spread out all over the world. But then again, we wouldn't have the diversity we currently have AND I think we'd get into trouble together now and then. Wish I was in Toronto because I'd love a spin in one of those cars! Glad to see you post again gohan_bcc!
You're buying a Ferrari right?
I think a Tesla would be in order! lol
I am glad I am just poor and do not know nay better.
Only pet peeve of mine is someone telling another how to spend their money.
Other than that, each to his own. A Ferrari is nice but hard to get in and out of as I get older. As an old white man, I prefer the SUV.
We're good man. I have no problem either with people disclosing their position - or disclosing their successes and failures. Ifyoua person actually owns something (not the bank or on margin) andyoua person actually earned it... then good onyouthat person. I am straight up jealous and that is 100% honest. My comment was directed solely at M+8 and his professional / respectful manner, not at anyone else.
Wonder if any of the big hedge funds are talking about BBRY at the SALT conference, wouldn't that be a kick.