F!!!, the Canadian government should be investing as much as it did in **** GM. Talk about take and leave you to die!!!!!
Hope the gang is all well and cheers to all the great contributors here!!!!
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F!!!, the Canadian government should be investing as much as it did in **** GM. Talk about take and leave you to die!!!!!
Hope the gang is all well and cheers to all the great contributors here!!!!
OT: ACB & WEED
Hi Morgan, when you have a little spare time then could you please take a look at WEED earning report yesterday. I believe that you were interested in their report rather than ACB
-9:15 a.m. ET: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau makes announcement in Kanata alongside BlackBerry CEO John Chen
BlackBerry bets on Kanata, pledging 800 new jobs
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Where did 2.5x come from? I remember other's saying 3.4, 3.7 which too is BS and wholly arbitrary, seems like a number pulled out of the air.
This doesn't seem like a case of moving goal posts, it seems like a case of changing how goals are counted. Like in football after the game ends saying that touchdowns will only be worth 2 points, because if we stick with the historical 6, the team which needs to lose would not have. Literally a case of starting with the desired result, and working backwards to get it.
"As everyone knows, BB is a bum company on a downward trajectory that will be worth less tomorrow than it is today. In light of increasing revenues, the winding down of continued expenses related to shuttering hardware, and a perfectly fitting Cylance merger which should close soon and add hundreds of millions to revenue, we've had to slash our price/sales ratio to well below any comparable company. Not doing so would have a material effect on BB's ability to show continued price declines."
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That $40m sounds like a step in the right direction. Surprised the market hasn't punished BB for getting more money using the logic that only a company in dire straights would need free gov't money. Just like how it must be the absolute wealthiest out there who go to payday loan shops. Afterall who else could afford 150% interest?
I love that they are creating 1000 co-op placements. I went through a co-op program in university and it was one of the best choices made so far.
Hi Masterful,
WEED came out with 50% higher gross revenues vs. ACB, but their margins were only 13% on that amount while ACB was at 56%. Its also clear that ACB is going to ramp up much faster then WEED over the balance of this year. So even though their revenues looked good on paper, they achieved those gains by missing on revs the past 3 quarters followed by a huge inventory build. To top it all off, they were crippled on medical sales this Q and that's where all the big margins live so I'm taking away from all of this that ACB is in a very good position to take the #1 spot in volume sales and margins this year. Its difficult for me to believe analysts that WEED is #1 in anyway in this sector when ACB will out-produce them and earn more. For instance, ACB claims they will be EBITDA positive next Q, WEED is nowhere near that op.
There are so many things to consider here but if the market loves WEED's Q numbers for this past quarter, they are going to love ACB's numbers going forward, they just haven't figured it out yet. The diluted value of WEED is $34 billion right now, for ACB it is $ 11B so there is something wrong with the comparables here. I would not go near WEED but I'm going to hold onto my ACB shares and add more.
The missing piece of this puzzle is the deal that WEED holds, they sold control and ownership of their company to Const. Brands. ACB needs to choose a partner in crime like Pfizer and than watch the stock triple. ACB has told us that they have turned down all offers so far based upon guidance from others in the US. With 23 countries and a host of platforms to produce product, a pharma deal makes sense to me and I believe it will happen at these prices.
Okay, that's enough!
A quick shout out to this thread for the latest updates on BB in the past 24 hours, BlackBerry is looking so good for the latter half of this year. It is inching toward $ 9.00/shr but that means nothing compared to what it can do starting in June.
Having done a couple apprenticeships and now medicine, I wish more programs included co-op placements.
It gives you a much better idea of what your future career might look like, makes your learning way more relevant and enables those who are already working to teach and continue to grow themselves.
thank you Morgan, for your time as always.
This is a bit of a conundrum. Daily RSI sitting right at 70 and Canadian markets closed on Monday.
I hear you! We are at the top of the BB's ($ 8.67/shr/us) and RSI=70 so there isn't too much drive here. Still I think we'll head towards $ 9.00 and base out enough times to work off the RSI. GL
I'm inclined to hang on this time. At least until Cylance news. And then it gets tougher with earnings coming next month.
Up until 2018 the RSI was a pretty decent indicator to make money simply selling at 70+, and buying at 30-.
As I mentioned before, sadly I never took advantage of it as I was fearful being out of the stock prior to a big move which has been just around the corner since late 2011 when BB10 was to be released... This past summer after hitting low 20s, it was ripe for a move up, but instead it just lingered for a while sideways for a quarter until RSI increased, and then continued it stoic march downwards... The signal there was buy, but doing so would have resulted in almost halving your money.
Why is the RSI to be relied upon now? I've been in the stock for the better part of a decade now, and if nothing else has been a spectacular lesson in the irrationality of the markets, and an exercise in patience. In short over the last two years there are lots of examples of 70 being the sign that we're about the shed 1/3rd our value, whereas an RSI of 20 could mean we're just not going to shed another 1/3rd for at least another 2 months.
Really mate! You grab one indicator and think you have found the Holy Grail!!! It's a good indicator , but don't just close your eyes and hope for the best mate!!!
Corbu mate, I haven't seen your girlfriends lately and I'm getting pretty lonely mate........
Here you go, mate!
Attachment 443033
Sorry mate that won't do!! The BlackBerry phone is to covered up. Lol
Ottawa’s $40-million investment in BlackBerry ‘a very encouraging sign’
A tech analyst says the federal government’s investment in BlackBerry shows the company has reinvented itself as a software and services company.
I understand where you are coming from, it would be nice if one indicator worked in all cases. RSI is great, it along with the Bollinger Bands & Seasonal tendencies tell you plenty about where your stock can go when there is no news to supersede those indicators.
BlackBerry follows the RSI level indicator extremely well, its a must have and that's why we introduced it many years ago to help others get out of frothy stock moves. A few years ago, we were lucky to get everyone on board with a couple of indicators, I think we tried 3 - 4 of them and it took many months if not years to hear others say things like, " this trade is extended", or, "we are way over RSI=70". Forget the multitude of other indicators available like onside volume, double tops, bottoms etc..
This past Fall, Trump sent the general markets down over 20% and in many cases heavily into bear market territory. BB made a purchase at this time that blew out most of their cash on a company few knew anything about. To summarize, we were in our first bear market and our safe haven BB spent their cash reserves after telling us they would only buy smaller deals at distress values. There was a great deal of concern over this deal so the stock gave up a couple of bucks more on this uncertainty. It did hit a buy signal at RSI<30 for sure, but we have to work through the Trump sell-off and the acquisition at the same time so it took longer to form that bottom. While all of this was happening, we had the Seasonal Effect of tax loss selling coupled with Funds dumping losers for their year-end reports. I can tell you from experience that no fund manager on the planet wants to show a negative trade in their account. They will sell any and all positions that make them look bad. It takes strong will on the part of a manager to hold losers.
As you can see, there is a great deal of information that you should look at in order to take the emotion out of the trade and lock in profits when others are so excited about your investment.
Countless times I tried to tell others to consider taking profits at those highs and to buy at the lows. I sold everything in the $ 14.00/US plus area last time, I actually shorted over 130,000 shrs right after that and then covered my short position and began my buy-back program using naked put writing. I think I'm well documented in this and I hoped others would follow.
So please don't give up, a few simple indicators will go a long way to help you decide when a great investment is too expensive/frothy at any given time, or, a sensational buy op.
For weekend reading, even though my KEY2 seems to be a battery beast doesn't mean it cannot be improved:
20 Secret Ways to Save Your Phone's Battery When Travelling
https://www.slice.ca/travel/photos/h...ry_Travelling_
Regarding the emphasis on RSI. A single technical indicator doesn't usually tell the whole tale but when one is spotted acting so consistently over such a long period of time, as it was with BB, it tends to rise above the others as a pretty solid clue to how the play is going.
Having said that, their is no guarantee that it will continue. Cheers
Also too, pattern and trends get flattened out as people jump into profit from them. Biggest part of trend analysis is the constant need to readjust the analysis when it skews to additional players or new events...
Hi Morgan,
What are the chances of JC renegotiating the acquisition price? As I understand it, the loss of a major customer is a very good reason to reassess the valuation of a company that you're purchasing? And since the deal hasn't yet closed, it would almost be a lost opportunity if they wouldn't try it? Seems only fair to me.
Thanks!
What customer are you thinking of?
Dell was a close (and probably major) partner/customer. Dell promoted Cylance products to their enterprise customers, and they're now no longer pushing Cylance solutions (they've teamed up with their number 1 competitor Crowdstrike). So, let's assume that Dell has always invoiced their customers and has let Cylance charge Dell for it (which would be the wise thing to do from Dell's point of view), then who really knows what the outcome of all this will be.