Originally Posted by
morganplus8 sparkaction!!
I honestly think Heins is pleased with how BB is transitioning into a mobile player once again. We have only one quarter worth of data to go on but I believe they felt the battle would be even more difficult in North America. Yet they are doing extremely well in Canada and abroad. Now pleasing the media is a whole other issue. My personal take on the media is that it is far more popular (clicks) to bash BlackBerry, then it is to promote the company. In addition, if you are the first to move on a topic, you get followers to quote you, so the Wall Street Enquirer is pumping out articles that have zero value almost every day. All the other media types quote them and create their own relevance on the topic. The Globe & Mail is famous for stealing ideas and pumping stories that have zero value. Jacquie McNish should know better than to even suggest she has some connection with Canada's Pension Funds. Yet we are know led to believe that they are cool to the idea of making money.
Prem stepping down from the board was a huge event, he knows that, the board knows that, and thankfully, the media believe he stepped down to pursue the company. I believe that BlackBerry has some offer on the table, the offer is strong enough that Prem had to step down in order to free himself to sell his block in the open market, or possibly make a counter offer. He could do neither of those two moves without stepping away. If I owned as many shares as Mike and Prem do, I would have done the same thing. It is against the law to provide the media with any kind of information that is not available to the public. This is straight forward and the media knows this too. They skirt this issue by using logic, it goes like this, "well, we know nothing about the actions that BB will be taking or have taken, we don't have any sources to provide us with illegal information, therefore, we must place ourselves in their position and think of all of the possibilities here, and report the ones we like the most".
They end up thinking that Prem, had to consider selling his stock, buying more stock, holding what he has and variations of the above. So Jacquie comes along and says that her article will include some Wall Street Enquirer stuff, and that reasoned "thought" that Prem might have considered selling his shares at one point. This is all part of the "what if" analysis that all companies go through every day. Heck, I thought of selling my block of stock many times too, Prem doesn't hold an exclusive right to that idea, I thought of selling those shares when they get to $ 30.00/shr.. Big deal.
So to get back to your question, and the point you made about MSFT working quietly behind the scenes to acquire NOK, I believe a real buyer stepped forward and their offer is extremely friendly to BlackBerry, such that the board has to consider it. I also think that Mike and Prem have other ideas and they have enough shares to block any deal that is presented by this secret buyer. Prem cannot block a deal and sit on the board, he has to step outside the boardroom and state his reason why the company should go in a different direction. We had to wait for the board to get re-elected on July 9th, we had to wait for Heins to get his stock package and we had to wait for the breakup package to be voted on by the board. It took little time after that for Prem to step down, for the stock to pop up and for BB to announce a renewed interest in partnerships etc.. Why would it take much time for BB to ask for others to take a run at the company when they already have an interest? MSFT has a ton of cash, as do others, so I imagine that the company that approached them is after a "part" of the company at a price that makes it worth their while selling off almost everything. We will never know until it happens, the stock is setting up for some real news and we will see it rally hard, each day and then suddenly the reason for the rally will become apparent.
You get to 52 week highs in the stock in short order ... this way, the stock rallies, investors question why, it continues to rally, many sell, it holds at over bought levels and then you know why is it up there. A standard 40% premium on $ 15.00/shr gets you to 52 week highs and all the media talks about is the generous 40% premium and not the rally before it. I don't believe Prem is trying to buy the company cheap, and, we aren't talking about much money here, when you buy stock on the way to making your offer, your average price for the stock is well below the final sales price.
Finally, the company can't say anything, the players who signed BlackBerry's release forms for details of the financials can't say anything, and most Funds don't want to be in the news for breaking the law. Sources of information don't exist in 99% of these deals. When I was in the business, I had a rich client who called me one day while flying to his cottage with the CEO of a major oil company (oil companies' private helicopter), he told me the company was going to be purchased and the announcement would be out in 3 hours, he was right. The last thing I would do is tell anyone what I knew, or act upon it as I had already done a major purchase of Kaiser Resources just days before they were acquired. If I had two such deals on my books, I'd be up in front of the OSC/SEC!! If you have real information, and you are in the business, the last thing you want is for anyone else to know what you know. The media just play the "what if" game and perform selective reporting, followed by cut and paste. Sorry about the long winded explanation!
One more thing: The board doesn't necessarily decide when to spring into action, the company making the offer to acquire their assets drives the board into action. I think the board was driven into action in this case.