Hi lcjr!!!
Welcome back bud! You missed a decent rally yesterday as news came out that Prem Watsa stepped down from the board so as not to conflict with management decisions. He likely wants to take BlackBerry private with the help of some Canadian Pension Funds. The media have been all over this news by reducing most of BB's asset valuation down to silly levels. The target price for all assets is around a $ 14.00/shr average which is just plain stupid. Meanwhile, we'll see X-BBM launch in the next few weeks and finally get some colour on how well BES10 is doing along with the Q10 phone. The company chose a perfect time to stir up the media and shorts with some interesting talk about "other" options. They formed a "special committee" of the
same people who sit on the board every day and the media fell for it!! LOL That's like four of us starting the exact same thread as
Superfly created here, and calling it "new" and improved. The media went for it and managed to downside the value of BlackBerry over a matter of minutes.
Meanwhile, the stock is rallying because Prem, The Teachers Fund and CPP could be amassing a huge position in the stock here and shorts are going to a BBQ of their own. This is too much fun, we are heading into a Q2 with plenty of new products, news and a full quarter of multiple handset sales, you know, that hardware division that is worth less than a dollar to BlackBerry but the same one that produces over $ 232 in ASP to the bottom line? So now we know handsets aren't worth anything to BB because analysts told us so, we didn't meet their expectation in Q1 and therefore hardware is dead now.
Today we are right at the 50-dma ($ 11.09) which triggers buying from automatic fund allocation, many stocks would love to be over their 50-dma, like gold stocks, Apple, you know .... its a big deal. I'm looking for $ 12.50/shr in the days ahead, that's a good resting place while we wait for X-BBM to launch along with BB 10.2 which is a killer OS upgrade.
Here's the chart for today:
Attachment 192096
The RSI is climbing hard here, we are heading for overbought territory but, it doesn't matter because this rally is the real deal, we can stay over bought for weeks. The stock is outside the Bollinger Bands for the third straight day and that is really bullish too. The gap that we made on June 28th is about to get filled and that's where we will play until the company announces several news events. Then there is poor Prem, he has to announce that he has gone over 10% in his holding so that's news in itself. On this board, we picked up some new trolls!!! Yes, they are here and we love them. Some followers have sold their position in BBRY because they don't follow TA, sad really, but that's okay too.
Look for us to play around at the important 50-dma here and set ourselves up for a REAL rally. Great news, the surprising part is the media who aren't going to cave in and admit they are so wrong on the valuation of this play. Handsets are valuable when it is called "BlackBerry" they just haven't figured it out yet. Any sign of subs exits slowing down or X-BBM growing like wildfire and we have ourselves a rally here. When the stock continues to climb, and the media call the company dead, you have the potential for some real upside here. I'm looking for it to be taken out at a new 52 week high, dirt cheap at that level, and if you have to ask "why" you aren't in the right game! LOL
Good luck and welcome back!