[BBUK14]

Hard to repair brand perception when you have less than a half percent of penetration in the USA market. Most would not even notice!

Well, in a strange way, that's what great about it. By focusing on the UK, and other places where BlackBerry isn't totally shunned, and getting BBM widely accepted in the US, they can build positive feelings about the brand (this means BBM in the US especially), so that when they are ready to launch top-shelf hardware they won't face all that negative cultural drag on the products. BlackBerry smartphone sales can't get any lower in the US, which also means that in the US we don't need to worry about anymore negative news about drops in sales lol. I laugh, but it's true.

I'm telling you, in the UK, BlackBerry 10 is starting to stick. I'm seeing a huge increase in BlackBerry 10 phones in the wild over here - still not huge numbers, but these things are viral. Every BlackBerry 10 phone in the wild equals at least ten friends/family/colleagues who will see it and see that BlackBerry isn't dead after all. I've had seven friends buy BlackBerry 10 phones after seeing mine and asking about it. It will be eight in another week or so, as another friend is buying at Z30 when her contact runs out in ten days.

The near zero market share in the US isn't a big deal. Chen was right when he said that all it takes is one big hit. He should have added that it takes a big hit, AND at least neutral brand perception by the public, but the next flagship will sell if they get that right.

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[BBUK14]

Superfly...

I do think it's a great idea to have a two-tier BBM system, consumer and enterprise, but as BBMx for the masses serves the double purpose of advertising BlackBerry on Apple and Android phones, and rebuilding positive sentiment towards BBM and thereby BlackBerry, I think it's just as important.

Finally, before we shut up and wait to see what actually takes place - what's up with BBM 2.0 for example? - I think it's important to remember that low cost Androids are supposedly being preloaded with BBM, and that BBM is supposedly coming to Gingerbread, and that a reversal of BBMx 2.0 plans that have already been announced would make BlackBerry so much of a laughing stock in the media that Chen and Co. wouldn't dare...hopefully.

Now I'm just going to relax and give these guys the benefit of the doubt...I've done this before, mind you...three times a charm?

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[Bacon Munchers]

On a bear roll, thus guy makes some sense. Apologies if this was discussed already. I find it hard to peddle back and keep up with the fury if this thread!
+++++++

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2007...n?source=yahoo
Quote:
The Fairfax Financial consortium has now taken down $1.25 billion in total debentures that grant rights for conversion into BlackBerry stock at $10 per share. Terms of the arrangement would calculate out to 125 million additional shares of outstanding common stock. Again, BlackBerry did close out its latest quarter with 526.2 million shares of common stock outstanding on the books. The Fairfax convertible bonds therefore carry the potential to dilute whatever remains of shareholder value by a staggering 23.8%. For their troubles, BlackBerry investors will effectively pay Fairfax 6% interest for holding the bonds. In the event of bankruptcy, of course, satisfying creditor demands would take priority above any payouts to equity owners after asset fire sales.

+++++++
I have stated before my dislike for Prem, not as an investor, but as a person. He attempts to come across as a humanitarian, but the words 'Scum bag' keeps haunting me.

Morgan, can I bother you to once again 'decrypt' and explain whether you feel that this article writer is blowing smoke, or has intelligently relayed a point that some of us (read: me) have missed?

Anybody else, please feel free to chime in. I am torn over this one.

[crackerdoodle]

Less burn at BlackBerry

Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are down 13 cents, or 1.3%, at $9.74, after RBC Capital Markets’s Mark Sue reiterated a Sector Perform rating on the stock, while raising his price target to $11 from $10, writing that the threat of cash burn may have been over-estimated, writing “We now expect services revenues to decline at a slower rate, while we expect BlackBerry’s purchase commitments to decrease.”

“Add real estate sale and opex cuts and BlackBerry may achieve its target of cash-flow breakeven by FY16.”

[Bigbacala]

Hard to repair brand perception when you have less than a half percent of penetration in the USA market. Most would not even notice!

What percentage of the market did Apple have before 2007?

It's a matter of catching the next wave of whatever the consumer thinks they need. Make the consumer believe they need your product.


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[BBUK14]

What percentage of the market did Apple have before 2007?

It's a matter of catching the next wave of whatever the consumer thinks they need. Make the consumer believe they need your product.


Posted via CB10

I think you are right, but I also think it's even easier than that. All BlackBerry needs is a great looking phone with top specs and an environment in which salespeople aren't actively discouraging sale and telling consumers that BlackBerry is dead. Over here in the UK at least, BlackBerry phones are going to sell well if the specs and price are right.

...a phone you could stick a slim USB into wouldn't hurt though...

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[Superfly_FR]

OT : http://forums.crackberry.com/showthread.php?t=904057

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[Superfly_FR]

On a bear roll, thus guy makes some sense. Apologies if this was discussed already. I find it hard to peddle back and keep up with the fury if this thread!
+++++++
Quote:
The Fairfax Financial consortium has now taken down $1.25 billion in total debentures that grant rights for conversion into BlackBerry stock at $10 per share. Terms of the arrangement would c...
+++++++
.

I answered there, but I'll copy/paste it here
(response to a previous comment, "All this has already been said. Why publish an article of old news without any additional insight? ")

My comment :

The news would be Fairfax added $15million to their position on free market lately.
We've read so many "falling knife" "cat bounce", "spiral of death" or "bleeding cash" scenario already (I mean for the last 4 years !) that one could reasonably question these.
BlackBerry didn't succeed as some (I must confess, me included) expected with the launch of BlackBerry10. While truly revolutionary and best of class behind the scene, their new OS learning curve, the few-but-mandatory missing apps added to the confusion and noise ("they're dead already") many spread purposely prevented their new platform to meet the general market. Can't deny that.
Yet - and still - in a long term (years) perspective, recent focus on enterprises - where you add multi platform services revenues to hardware revenues - can definitely lead BlackBerry back to operational profits, the mandatory step prior any wide offensive out of the enterprise market.
So what to monitor ?
BES10 is now out of the trial period and BES10 in the cloud is near to launch. These - both in terms of revenues generation and market share - are the indicators we have to focus on.
Of course, next device ('Jakarta') success is also an important point, as it will reveal the new entry point pricing and expose more details about BlackBerry's and Foxcon's alliance.
As a strong (long) holder, that's all I care about.
Oh, maybe also when I see time scales ("the more shorted ... past two years") stretching ... but this may be my rosy glasses again.
discl : long BBRY / sorry for bad English.

[morganplus8]

On a bear roll, thus guy makes some sense. Apologies if this was discussed already. I find it hard to peddle back and keep up with the fury if this thread!
+++++++

BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY) news: Fairfax Opens Up BlackBerry Floodgates... Again - Seeking Alpha
Quote:
The Fairfax Financial consortium has now taken down $1.25 billion in total debentures that grant rights for conversion into BlackBerry stock at $10 per share. Terms of the arrangement would calculate out to 125 million additional shares of outstanding common stock. Again, BlackBerry did close out its latest quarter with 526.2 million shares of common stock outstanding on the books. The Fairfax convertible bonds therefore carry the potential to dilute whatever remains of shareholder value by a staggering 23.8%. For their troubles, BlackBerry investors will effectively pay Fairfax 6% interest for holding the bonds. In the event of bankruptcy, of course, satisfying creditor demands would take priority above any payouts to equity owners after asset fire sales.

+++++++
I have stated before my dislike for Prem, not as an investor, but as a person. He attempts to come across as a humanitarian, but the words 'Scum bag' keeps haunting me.

Morgan, can I bother you to once again 'decrypt' and explain whether you feel that this article writer is blowing smoke, or has intelligently relayed a point that some of us (read: me) have missed?

Anybody else, please feel free to chime in. I am torn over this one.

Suffice it to say, I personally believe that it was totally unnecessary for BB to go this route. They didn't need the money, they should/could have been working hard towards a partnership for the hardware division, there was no need to sell bonds at this time. I lost a great deal of respect for Prem after this move. If it were me, and I was in Prem's shoes, I would have offered those bonds back to BlackBerry at anytime in the future. For example, I truly believe that Lenovo wanted a deal, as did others, there surely would have been a formula that would have worked for each of them. Lenovo could have taken up the hardware risk in exchange for protection using BlackBerry patents, that deal alone would have easily been worth 2 - 3 times the bond offering.

In the end, we missed that deal and they had to strike a deal with Google.

The same could be said regarding their real estate, hard assets that aren't that difficult to sell over a period of a year. The stock was heading for tax-loss selling anyway, the diluted bond offering actually hurt BBRY more than it ever helped them. They still have $ 800 MM coming to them in the form of tax refunds and R&D benefits. There just was no need to sell bonds at this time. The worst thing you can do to a company when they are trying to stop the bleeding and grow a business is tax them with interest payments. With a short position slightly larger than the bond issue, we lost most of the benefit of any good news that landed in the past couple of months.

FairFax spent $ 500 MM on bonds, they could have done a great deal more for BlackBerry by simply buying stock in the open market. Forget all of the other players in that bond issue, just run the numbers with $ 1/2 billion and stock at $ 6.00/shr.. Prem could have obtained a much better average on his holdings and benefited from the rally that came after the Foxconn news. Today we wouldn't even be talking about the heavy resistance at $ 10.00/shr if they hadn't become so greedy. There, I feel better already!

[Corbu]

Very, very well said, Morgan!

Thanks.

[Corbu]

Gentlemen, allow me to submit my scientific proof that BBRY should not abandon the phone business:
Americans Consider Mobile Phones More Important Than Sex - Fool.com

[Kid Vibe]

Reason to buy a Q10

[bigbadben10]

Reason to buy a Q10

Huh..."The Wolf of Wall Street"...perfect

[JLagoon]

Reason to buy a Q10

Let's make this viral, just like the Obama with z10.


Sent from my iPhone using CB Forums mobile app

[zyben]

Here's another pic

[jake simmons3]

93,612,769 short interest still on the way down

[kadakn01]

Short interest update
Now as of Jan 31 is 93,612,769
Down about 14M shares

Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

Reason to buy a Q10

It ain't gay if it's Leo

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[cjcampbell]

It ain't gay if it's Leo

Posted via CB10

And if it is, it doesn't really matter now does it.

[Bilaal]

And if it is, it doesn't really matter now does it.

Certainly not

Posted via CB10

[rim4ever]

93,612,769 short interest still on the way down

Will be interesting to see who is left to hold the bag.

[JLagoon]

Hi all:

Here are my updated BBRY charts.

I haven't recognized any pattern formation on either the 30 minute or daily chart yet. I think, we are still in the consolidation period. The past 2 trading days, including one today, appear to show spinning top candles. These, usually, represent indecision. The SP made quite a range, and settled very close to the opening price.

Some points that I notice are:
- MA50 crossed MA100 on the daily chart.
- MA20 appear to provide support on the daily chart.
- MA20 is about to cross MA200 on the daily chart.
- BB on the 30 minute chart is getting tighter in this consolidation period. Let's see, how the SP swings next. TA looks more bullish, than bearish so far.
- The next challenges are to close above $9.85, and then above $10.50.

30 minute:


Daily:

[BBUK14]

The inevitable negative articles are beginning to role in regarding BBM. I'm interested in how this affects confidence in the company as a whole if BlackBerry sew their lips shut again.

One sentence could have avoided all of this: 'BlackBerry remain committed to delivering the full BBM experience to iOS and Android over the next weeks and months'.

Maybe we should begin to chart dumb PR moves and their relation to the SP over time.

Watching BlackBerry handle the public is like watching England play football. I'm going to bed...

http://www.theguardian.com/technolog...andrew-bocking

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[Kid Vibe]

OT: Just going over some things about capital losses. I was curious about how to deal with mine but found a few helpful articles... According to them, I can carry these against any capital gains I make in the future indefinitely (or up to 3 years prior). So it seems best to just not worry about them so much for now until I start investing and hopefully make some dough.

Capital losses can only be claimed on investments within taxable investment accounts.
Only 50% of capital losses can be claimed.
Capital losses can be claimed against capital gains in the current year, up to 3 previous years or carried forward indefinitely. However, it can be claimed against income on the year of the tax payers death (comforting hey?).
Tax loss selling must be made before December 24 of that year as it takes 3 days to settle the trade.

Read more at Reduce your Taxes by Claiming your Capital Loss

If any of this is wrong or someone has feedback please lemme know!

[early2bed]

OT: Just going over some things about capital losses...!

You can use capital losses to offset $3000 worth of ordinary income each year. It's chump change, nowadays, since Congress hasn't raised this amount to keep up with inflation.

Also, I've never heard that only 50% of capital losses can be claimed. Also, you have to separate short term and long term capital gains. It's one of the things that makes trading in a taxable account such a hassle. I try to avoid it and trade out of my SEP IRA account.