[erbby]

Back from sons hockey game. You are the classiest bunch of people I have never met. I am a 50 plus year old tech challenged farmer-dump truck owner, that stumbled on this thread, with not a lot to offer you, sorry to say. Reading here has been a real education for me, as well as an inspiration. My stock market experience is very limited, but am trying, and you are the inspiration. I feel its an honor to be here. Holy cow Morgan, you have been going through a nasty time. Sincerely wish you a speedy and complete recovery. And wholeheartedly appreciate the help, guidance and info you have given here. Wish I knew how to help. Thank you Superfly for starting it all. Hope this post didn't sound to sappy, it's late and I am tired, but the sentiments come from my heart. Thanks.

[Shanerredflag]

Well if Morgan could explain the possible tax return BlackBerry could receive up to 1 billion dollars we could see them post a positive qtr in March

Posted via CB10

Yeah, that (imo) won't cut it with the investment community though...we need some promising uptake/ BES numbers to get this baby really moving.


Posted via CB10

[dusdal]

I believe we already received that tax return didn't we?

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[jake simmons3]

Well obv we need to see some growth in revenue as well to please the street. I'm just saying that tax return will give BlackBerry a good amount of cash to turn the ship around.

Posted via CB10

[INTz]

I hope Lazaridis can harvest this talent. Amazing kid.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/09/01/j...tt-boy-genius/

Posted via CB10

[cjcampbell]

I hope Lazaridis can harvest this talent. Amazing kid.

Jacob Barnett, boy genius - Canada - Macleans.ca

Posted via CB10

I met this kid at the last public touring of the Perimeter Institute. He was helping out a kid with some basic math ideas on one of the chalkboards. Oddly enough, I saw a video of him just a few days earlier so I recognized him right away.

[OMGitworks]

Well if Morgan could explain the possible tax return BlackBerry could receive up to 1 billion dollars we could see them post a positive qtr in March

Posted via CB10

I think at least half of it, possibly all of it was accelerated for and accounted for in the last quarter. What they need are enterprise sales, wrap up the handset debacle and to start getting real traction with BBM. Chen seems to beheaded down these roads at a quick pace and the street is already rewarding him and BBRY for trying.

[greggebhardt]

Into the toilet we go!

[Corbu]

BlackBerry downgraded to Underperform from Perform at Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer downgraded BlackBerry to Underperform saying it sees the potential for 20%-30% downside from current share levels. Opco expects BlackBerry's device shipments and subscriptions to erode quickly before stability is achieved from CEO John Chen's downsizing and refocused strategy.

"CEO John Chen's downsizing and enterprise/software focused strategy's pragmatic, but we're still cautious on his ability to successfully turn around the business," Kidron wrote in a note. "Despite operational changes, we expect BlackBerry's device shipments and subs to erode quickly before stability is achieved with the new strategy."

Given the rockiness and volatility surrounding the company, as well as the stock, Chen's plan to save the company, which includes a get back-to-basics strategy, involves a lot of execution risk, according to Kidron, who titled his note, "Sell the "Dream," Face "Reality"; Downgrading." He noted that even if Chen and his management team are successful "BlackBerry would likely exit much smaller and a niche player."

"We see a disconnect in what is likely to be a challenging, multiple-year reclamation project, and investors' more typical multi-quarter bottom-line view. We believe the mismatch will eventually weigh on the shares," Kidron wrote in the note.

Chen, who successfully turned around Sybase, has a "good track record," according to Kidron, and he's "tapping a management team he's successfully worked with in the past in turning around and selling Sybase."

For now though, Kidron is warranting caution at these levels. He said that investors may be "reminded of the 'reality' through the year, shaking confidence. Sell ahead."

Stock Market & Financial Investment News: Educated Investors Get Live Stock Market News Feeds & Alerts at The Fly On the Wall
Why BlackBerry's 'Dream' Is Over ... For Now - TheStreet

[Corbu]

More of JC weaving his web...

BlackBerry� Limited (BBRY)(BB.TO), a world leader in mobile communications, today announced that Eric Johnson will join the Company as President, Global Sales reporting to BlackBerry's Executive Chair and CEO, John Chen.

"I am pleased to round out BlackBerry's new executive leadership team with another outstanding addition today. I have worked with Eric extensively and have tremendous respect for his sales expertise and customer centric approach to business. Our carriers, partners, distributors and enterprise customers will benefit greatly from Eric's approach," said Chen. "The experience that the majority of the new leadership team has in working together previously will drive change within the organization at a faster pace. I look forward to demonstrating these changes to the market."

Eric Johnson most recently served as Senior Vice President and General Manager for SAP's Global Database and Technology. Prior to that, Eric was Senior Vice President and General Manager of Platform and Analytics Sales for North America, also at SAP. In the years preceding, Eric served in several capacities at Sybase, including Senior Vice President and General Manager for North America, Senior Vice President and General Manager Europe, Middle East and Africa, and Senior Vice President and General Manager for Financial Services, where he managed both direct and indirect sales including field sales, professional services and customer services. Eric holds a Bachelor's degree in Political Science from the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

[BBUK14]

The downgrade is little more than a game. I would see any drop in share price as an opportunity at the moment. Nothing has changed. It will still take time for sales to pick up and for BES10 to pick up. I'm in London and definitely seeing a pickup in the number of BB10 phones. I tend to have a look around on my commute home, and I now see about one other BB10 device every evening on my journey. This was certainly not the case a few months ago.

If you believe the company will survive, and I do, then rejoice in a bit of a drop and buy more. If not, why buy at all?

Posted via CB10

[Andrew4life]

Wow. John is really stacking his board with loyalists. Eric Johnson is also from SAP and Sybase.
It's almost as if it is a company takeover.

Posted via CB10

[austriker]

Roller coaster time.

Premarket is down nearly 3%, perhaps because of that downgrade? Either way wonder if this means buying opp for longs or time for the dreaded shorts to flex their muscles and try to tank the SP further..

(attachment of stock price/chart won't load, come on cb10!)

Pounded out on the last great qwerty to rule them all.. Q10

[BBUK14]

The downgrade is little more than a game. I would see any drop in share price as an opportunity at the moment. Nothing has changed. It will still take time for sales to pick up and for BES10 to pick up. I'm in London and definitely seeing a pickup in the number of BB10 phones. I tend to have a look around on my commute home, and I now see about one other BB10 device every evening on my journey. This was certainly not the case a few months ago.

If you believe the company will survive, and I do, then rejoice in a bit of a drop and buy more. If not, why buy at all?

Posted via CB10

I know some will say that having a look around on the tube doesn't signify anything, but it actually does. Sampling of this sort is actually highly reliable if done scientifically, although of course what I am doing is not scientific but casual. I would almost certainly see even more BB10 devices if I were to stop everyone on the train and have them empty their pockets. In London at least, sales of the Z10 and Q10 have definitely picked up.

Posted via CB10

[jake simmons3]

So much for that 8.50 support

[bungaboy]

Back from sons hockey game. You are the classiest bunch of people I have never met. I am a 50 plus year old tech challenged farmer-dump truck owner, that stumbled on this thread, with not a lot to offer you, sorry to say. Reading here has been a real education for me, as well as an inspiration. My stock market experience is very limited, but am trying, and you are the inspiration. I feel its an honor to be here. Holy cow Morgan, you have been going through a nasty time. Sincerely wish you a speedy and complete recovery. And wholeheartedly appreciate the help, guidance and info you have given here. Wish I knew how to help. Thank you Superfly for starting it all. Hope this post didn't sound to sappy, it's late and I am tired, but the sentiments come from my heart. Thanks.

Very nicely said. You are more than welcome to join in with us in this wonderful thread. Jump right in.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan,



If ever you see fit and have the time, could you please explain this sentence? I am not sure I am getting it. Did you mean to say that your previous outlook did not take into account the fact that the float is important? Pardon my lack of expertise. Thanks.

Morning Corbu!!

I simply forgot to mention all the reasons why I liked that stock, the number of outstanding shares is one of the many reasons it looks interesting. When you have a small float it only takes a modest amount of buying to drive the price higher. Not only that, but if they need to raise some more capital, they can issue more shares and it won't upset the movement of the price of the stock in the short-term like it has with BBRY.

Take SPHS - it is rallying on super light volume. It would be difficult for me to own that stock because I would drive the price of it up 10% trying to buy some shares. But if you only want a few thousand shares, it could turn into a block buster for you down the road. I would ask you to just observe each of these investments and see how they do versus the general market.

[morganplus8]

So much for that 8.50 support

Support isn't defined as a number, it is a range. In the case of BBRY, it is $ 8.20 - $ 8.45/shr and we are in the midst of that support. Support is also the benchmark of various TA levels. I use the 7-ema for BBRY and that number is $ 8.31/shr today. The stock has dropped back to support of the 7-ema, it has relieved the RSI over-bought number of plus 70 and we are undergoing a healthy and normal correction to a large run-up in the price over little more than a week. The stock is trading within the first hour and found support, there is a long day ahead of it and the closing figure is what counts. As long as we close near support and define it again tomorrow, we are having a perfect day. We need to see the stock consolidate these gains otherwise you are setting yourself up for a bigger drop here. Nothing wrong with the stock as long as it sits above the 7-ema today.

[Corbu]

Thanks for taking the time to get back to me, Morgan!

I really appreciate your insight and you taking the time to explain this. I get what you are saying. I am learning everyday and will make it a point to consider the number of outstanding shares aspect from now on.

Again, many thanks.

[morganplus8]

Well if Morgan could explain the possible tax return BlackBerry could receive up to 1 billion dollars we could see them post a positive qtr in March

Posted via CB10

I still haven't had the energy to read that afternoon filing by BlackBerry but I do know that they applied for tax benefits based on the Q2 report and nothing after that. Those write-offs came after they applied for tax benefits and so the only portion that could have been submitted was for the Q2 numbers. This leaves Q3 as a whole new appplication and I value that portion at 30% of $ 1.4 B bucks with some amount of R&D credits as well. I will be able to tell you just how much they are still able to get back from the Government as soon as I read that document. I would guess that they received only a portion of the Q2 balance, say 50% simply because the government might like to see Q3 to make certain they don't re-adjust the previous numbers.

You could argue that they can look forward to as much as $ 800 MM - $ 1B in tax payback and R&D in 2014. You can go to the BBRY Website and download that .pdf and read it carefully, you'll find out exactly how much they received and run the numbers from there.

[morganplus8]

Thanks for taking the time to get back to me, Morgan!

I really appreciate your insight and you taking the time to explain this. I get what you are saying. I am learning everyday and will make it a point to consider the number of outstanding shares aspect from now on.

Again, many thanks.

Hey, that was totally my fault, I haven't been getting the message out there as well lately and the last thing I want to do is mis-lead anyone. When I get my Channels up and running you won't see so many mishaps I assure you! In the past, I would provide charts and everything but its harder for me now. The four names that I have provided are worth watching due to their pipelines and cash on hand.

[jake simmons3]

I still haven't had the energy to read that afternoon filing by BlackBerry but I do know that they applied for tax benefits based on the Q2 report and nothing after that. Those write-offs came after they applied for tax benefits and so the only portion that could have been submitted was for the Q2 numbers. This leaves Q3 as a whole new appplication and I value that portion at 30% of $ 1.4 B bucks with some amount of R&D credits as well. I will be able to tell you just how much they are still able to get back from the Government as soon as I read that document. I would guess that they received only a portion of the Q2 balance, say 50% simply because the government might like to see Q3 to make certain they don't re-adjust the previous numbers.

You could argue that they can look forward to as much as $ 800 MM - $ 1B in tax payback and R&D in 2014. You can go to the BBRY Website and download that .pdf and read it carefully, you'll find out exactly how much they received and run the numbers from there.

Thank you for shedding some light on this topic. I hope bbry sees I good amount coming there way

[Corbu]

Don't sweat it, Morgan. You have been outstanding in your advice and your interest in helping everyone around here. I, for one, have learned a lot and I am keen to learn even more. Will keep an eye on those four prospects, for sure. Take care of yourself!

[slipstream89]

Morning Morgan,
Just hoping you can enlighten me about this but when you use stock charts how do you determine what parameters to use? especially with the moving averages, how would you know which # to use because it varies so much. Before I was using the 50 MA but didn't know when to change it to get a better outlook. Greatly appreciate it! thank you

[W Hoa]

So much for that 8.50 support

It appears to be an options play now. Friday will tell the tale.