[Corbu]

More from the WSJ:
BlackBerry's Next Move - WSJ.com

BlackBerry's Next Move

TORONTO— BlackBerry Ltd. BB.T +2.07% 's newly appointed interim chief executive, John Chen, has said the troubled Canadian smartphone maker is no longer for sale and is "very much alive." If the company continues to burn cash at the current rate, however, its life span appears threatened.

When BlackBerry reports its fiscal third-quarter earnings on Friday, investors and analysts expect almost every key financial metric to have worsened. Beyond its precarious cash position—analysts say it could run out of cash by the end of next year—it is expected to report declining service revenue and possibly further inventory write-offs as its smartphones continue to sell poorly. The company no longer discloses subscriber figures.

All eyes will be on Mr. Chen, who was brought on board last month to turn the company around after it scrapped a plan to sell itself. Many analysts say his options are limited. BlackBerry's sale process attracted few interested buyers, and there is limited visibility on the company's growth prospects. Mr. Chen has provided few details regarding his plan to turn the company around. Investors should hear Mr. Chen address the company's prospects for the first time after the company reports earnings.

Mr. Chen's only public statement since he took the helm came in an open letter to business customers earlier this month, in which he wrote that BlackBerry would go back to its "heritage and roots" to provide services to enterprises. He said rumors of the death of the company—which has suffered a sharp drop in market share and in the second quarter was saddled with almost $1 billion in unsold phones—were "greatly exaggerated."

Mr. Chen said the company would "continue to invest in enterprise- and security-related [research and development]" during its restructuring period, but he didn't include many specifics.

Investors have reacted skeptically to Mr. Chen's appointment and his limited public remarks. BlackBerry closed at $6.08 on the Nasdaq Friday, down about 22% since the Nov. 4 announcement that John Chen would be interim CEO.

Some analysts have suggested Mr. Chen shut down the withering smartphone business, but that would be costly. Even shutting down the company entirely is an expensive proposition, and one that may cost more money than BlackBerry has on its balance sheet, according to Citigroup analyst Ehud Gelblum.

Mr. Gelblum pegs the cost of winding up BlackBerry at roughly $4 billion, more than the combined total of its current cash position and a recent injection of $1 billion from investors.

That $1 billion injection, from major shareholder Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. FFH.T -1.02% and others, bought Mr. Chen some time. However, its dwindling cash hoard remains a concern.

BlackBerry reported $2.6 billion in cash at the end of the second quarter, down from $3.1 billion the previous quarter.

BlackBerry's previous chief executive, Thorsten Heins, had made preserving a hefty cash pile one of his top priorities, and in cutting costs and streamlining manufacturing operations, he largely did that.

But the second part of Mr. Heins's plan was to roll out a successful line of phones, and that plan has so far failed, leaving the company with that $1 billion of unsold Z10 smartphones.

Many analysts expect the company to announce a write-down of other phone models in the third quarter. Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley in a report to clients this month said there has been weak demand for all BlackBerry phones, including newly introduced models. Mr. Walkley also reported "high levels" of excess inventory for BlackBerry's keyboard-equipped Q series of phones.

And there has been tepid interest in BlackBerry's latest premium phone, the all-touch-screen Z30. The Z30 is only available at one U.S. carrier, Verizon Wireless, and can only be purchased online, not in stores. A Verizon spokeswoman declined to comment on Z30 sales.

[Shanerredflag]

CHEN is setting the stage for his ER call..


Posted via CB10

[Randeman]

And, in other news...the Greek speaks:

BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry: Investing With The Insiders - Seeking Alpha

[OMGitworks]

And, in other news...the Greek speaks:

BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry: Investing With The Insiders - Seeking Alpha

I don't think this guy has ever been right and this article is misleading at best. It is SA so whether it is bad or good, it should be discounted. I hope the ER is a blow out for all the longs here, but good old George's article is essentially worthless..... A convertible option is not insider buying, it is an option. We don't know why PW sunk more money into BBRY but failing to mention that he is a half a billion dollars down at this point in connection with his new investment and has almost 1Billion at risk is a major omission. I think one changes your decision matrix when faced with those facts?

FWIW - I think the ER won't be as bad as the last few quarters. The tax credit and previous write downs will help. Sales will not. They will sufficiently obfuscate the sales and BBM and enterprise numbers to get a few hours of breathing room until the call. Hopefully Chen's conference call is MUCH better than TH ever could do. The tone of the call and future prospects will be more important that what they report (unless they have a huge cash burn which I don't expect).

[ibpluto]

And, in other news...the Greek speaks:

BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry: Investing With The Insiders - Seeking Alpha

This guy is to positive what that Kofi guy is to negative on BB.

Wish both those guys would just STFU

[take99]

Bernstein Upgrade

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+Bernstein+Upgrades+BlackBerry+(BBRY)+to+ Market+Perform%3B+Assets+Worth+$6-$13B/8980141.html

[jake simmons3]

Bernstein Upgrade

http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/UPDATE%3A+Bernstein+Upgrades+BlackBerry+(BBRY)+to+ Market+Perform%3B+Assets+Worth+$6-$13B/8980141.html

6-13 billion in assets is it really that hard to gauge there assets. There is a big difference between 6 and 13

[BergerKing]

Not this puppy!

No, I have no interest in Glass, either. But you know that a lot of people are curious.

[timmy t]

6-13 billion in assets is it really that hard to gauge there assets. There is a big difference between 6 and 13

Yes, much of the valuation is subjective.

[cgk]

This guy is to positive what that Kofi guy is to negative on BB.

Wish both those guys would just STFU

Whatever happened to Michael Blair? He was a real BBRY pumper but seems to have disappeared off SA?

[georg4BB]

They will sufficiently obfuscate the sales and BBM and enterprise numbers to get a few hours of breathing room until the call. Hopefully Chen's conference call is MUCH better than TH ever could do. The tone of the call and future prospects will be more important that what they report (unless they have a huge cash burn which I don't expect).

I hope he will not try to obfuscate the truth. This would accelerate the rumor mill and make everything even worse. Transparency is what BB needs now, to renew confidence. And a plausible strategy, no fuzzy 'mobile computing' talk.
I agree, it's extemely important, that John Chen finds the right words.

[kfh227]

No, I have no interest in Glass, either. But you know that a lot of people are curious.

The thing I read that makes sense is that it could have special uses. Consider police officers and surgeons.

I personally don't think I'd want it but when did Google announce the target audience as being consumers?


Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

Whatever happened to Michael Blair? He was a real BBRY pumper but seems to have disappeared off SA?

Has anyone heard from Peter Misek lately? One thing I would like to see in an accounting of analyst predictions and their track records.

I'm really looking forward to the 20th. American Hustle is opening and John Chen's show debuts. I can't make up my mind which one I'm anticipating more. I will be consuming a lot of popcorn that day.

[Corbu]

BlackBerry Public Policy Executive Mark Cameron Departs - Bloomberg

[JLagoon]

Hi all:

I thought, I would give a quick update on my BBRY chart. On 12/4/2013, I projected a bottom of $5.50, which it hit, and that in the next 10 trading days, the SP would either continue to go down or "the SP creates a new trend with a bullish whipsaw on the MACD that shows that it is declining right now. So, instead of continuing to go down below $6, it spikes up. When this happens, RSI should cross the downtrend line (the long black arrow) to 40ish." Fortunately, we are seeing the latter. Last Friday, the SP peeked a little at the top of the wedge, and today, the SP is out of the wedge. We have bullish divergence to start this new trend. $6.48 shows the first top limit to reach. Of course, keep in mind that ER will be on this Friday at 8 a.m., and who would know how this will affect the SP?

Is it a coincidence that Bernstein upgraded BBRY with $6 - $13 billion valuation today? I leave that to yourselves. What kind of analyst provides such a huge gap in valuation of a company like BBRY anyway? Well, at least, it is an upgrade.

Daily chart (today):


Daily chart from 12/4/2013
Attachment 226965

[notfanboy]

And, in other news...the Greek speaks:

BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry: Investing With The Insiders - Seeking Alpha

I almost never click on Seeking Alpha links, but I did so today, and noticed the following chart beside the article. What I like about it is that its a real chart, unlike Kesarios' fantasies.

[jake simmons3]

BlackBerry Ltd confirms three more executives are leaving the smartphone firm as shakeup continues | Financial Post

Once again we see old picture of old devices showing up in articles.

[heymaggie]

BlackBerry Ltd confirms three more executives are leaving the smartphone firm as shakeup continues | Financial Post

Once again we see old picture of old devices showing up in articles.

I would guess that the pictures are included to illustrate what the average person thinks of when they are thinking about Blackberry - not to highlight current or new models.

[jmehta22]

*OT*

Hey Morgan - I know you like to keep it short and sweet but would like to get your quick opinion on $ARIA and $GALE at this price! Thanks in advance. Its pretty quite in here so hope a little OT is okay.

[bergeron37]

I would guess that the pictures are included to illustrate what the average person thinks of when they are thinking about Blackberry - not to highlight current or new models.

Actually I would guess that the pictures are included to illustrate the author and/or publishers agenda. Negative BBRY article = old pictures. Positive BBRY = new pictures.

[bigbadben10]

Google Glass....

[danprown]

Just do not wear it in a McDonalds in Paris...
Augmented Reality Explorer Steve Mann Assaulted At Parisian McDonald’s | TechCrunch

Google Glass....

[jake simmons3]

Actually I would guess that the pictures are included to illustrate the author and/or publishers agenda. Negative BBRY article = old pictures. Positive BBRY = new pictures.

My thoughts exactly

[capper96]

What I find kinda funny is why I am seeing this ad whenever I check this thread. It kinda sums up the mood of BBRY shareholders at the moment.

[cgk]

My thoughts exactly

Overthinking it - there would simply be an instruction "insert picture of blackberry phone here" and they would use the cheapest stock image unless it was specifically about a certain model.