[bungaboy]

Given that both Watsa and Chen said that BB is well financed, who are we to argue with them?

It's easy to argue when you Can't Grasp Knowledge!

[cgk]

The most surprising aspect of BBM’s success is probably its strong showing in Asia, where it is competing head to head against powerhouse messaging apps like LINE, WeChat and KakaoTalk. Brand new data from Distimo shows download shares of leading messaging apps across a broad spectrum of Asian countries. This data was gathered over the month of November, so it does not include the first week spike of BBM downloads that yielded 10 Million new users across Apple's iOS and Google's Android devices.

This is a market share snapshot from a period when the first wave of BlackBerry loyalists had already downloaded the app. It is fascinating that BBM managed to beat both LINE and Tencent’s WeChat in Indonesia with a towering 39% share. But it may be even more impressive that BBM hit 26% share in Malaysia, which has become the ground zero of Asian messaging app wars. This is 12 points below WeChat, but 9 points ahead of LINE. Both of these Asian rivals have poured a ton of marketing resources into Malaysia in 2013 in a bid to bind it to their sphere of influence.

BlackBerry's November Triumph - Exclusive New BBM Download Data - Forbes

[jake simmons3]

Hey M8

What do you think next ER will look like. I think there is a chance of it going both ways. Depending if the tax refund has came in or not and how many handsets were not recognized last ER because of the change. Also the venezuela money

[bungaboy]

His job is to drive people NUTS.
I heard you are a doctor and your job is to fix the NUTS and their supporting cast.
Lets see.
LoL
May be SF should repost the "how to use ignore button" guide again?

When people Can't Grasp Knowledge, of course they drive you NUTS.

[plasmid_boy]

When people Can't Grasp Knowledge, of course they drive you NUTS.

What?
Who Can't Grasp NUTS?
Oh, never mind, misreading...LOL

[morganplus8]

Hey M8

What do you think next ER will look like. I think there is a chance of it going both ways. Depending if the tax refund has came in or not and how many handsets were not recognized last ER because of the change. Also the venezuela money

Now that's anybody's guess. We had an adjustment for sell-through of 2.2 milion handsets for Q1 that were really sold to end users in Q2. The company said that 1.7 million of those handsets were BB 10's so our benchmark number is plus or minus 1.7 MM handsets of the BB 10 variety. While I do expect handset sales to flounder due to the "potential sale" of the company, we actually would have numbers that include the Q5's and the Q10 along with some Z30's in that mix, worldwide. Turns out that those Z30's were in demand and still are! So if you can tell me where BB 10 handsets land I can tell you where they will be re: EPS.

We know that BB 07's are still in great demand (sequential growth since Q4- 2013) and that adds revenue to the bottom line. We also know that BES10.1 was coming off trials and take-up sounds like it might not be that bad. They are selling Z10's from between $ 200 - $ 500 worldwide and they are off the books in terms of cost. So again, do those Z10's make up for a period when the company was for sale? The other factor is costs, while they are slow to fire staff, they are taking charges faster, plus, they have reduced Marketing (Q2 $ 750 MM down to ????) so much that they could turn a profit in Q3. I think they cleaned house, incurred costs in the form of write-downs so that Q3 could not only look good, Q4 could be profitable if the Z30 and BES10.1 start to rock. The tax credits won't fall into Q3, they will occur in Q4 and thus make the balance sheet look awesome during that period.

I guess I think they could be working the books to breakeven or turn a small profit in Q3. That's why we shake up the companies in the first place, to right size the business model and at least break even. I think Enterprise will come in down only 4% and therefore I see Revenues at close to $ 2.0 B. I think it would be very easy for them to turn a profit in Q3 but it is what Chen has to say that really matters for the stock itself. All guesses of course!

[W Hoa]

BlackBerry's November Triumph - Exclusive New BBM Download Data - Forbes

Two interesting quotes:

This data was gathered over the month of November, so it does not include the first week spike of BBM downloads that yielded 10 Million new users across Apple's AAPL -0.43% iOS and Google's GOOG +0.44% Android devices.

But for BBM, its early success in the populous markets of India, Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia is more than anyone expected. If sustained, this traction should be enough to buoy the global BBM user base to 200 Million by the end of 2014. That is enough to turn the system into a major content delivery platform.

[Korepab]

Two interesting quotes:

This data was gathered over the month of November, so it does not include the first week spike of BBM downloads that yielded 10 Million new users across Apple's AAPL -0.43% iOS and Google's GOOG +0.44% Android devices.

But for BBM, its early success in the populous markets of India, Indonesia, Philippines and Malaysia is more than anyone expected. If sustained, this traction should be enough to buoy the global BBM user base to 200 Million by the end of 2014. That is enough to turn the system into a major content delivery platform.

It's great news for sure. But again, they need to keep those updates coming. Adding channels and voice chat will do wonders and it will accelerate the downloads for sure.

I know they are already working on Bbm for PC. Most likely it will come to Windows phone not long after.

My only concern is getting into China Japan and Korea. Those will be the real challenges. I think what they should do is to get into the market through corporate side in those countries. Start it from there then spread it into the consumer market. But of course they need an incentive for companies Asia to use Bbm. Something they need to figure out.

Chen can probably use his asian connections for this. It's just too difficult to go against Wechat and Line head-on in the consumer market.

Posted via CB10

[JLagoon]

Hi all:

- For the December ER, I think, there is a possibility to show some profit. I could think of three reasons for another negative ER: 1. the amount of phones sold is much less, than the 2.2 million that were reported in the previous ER for recognition ER. This is considering that the amount of phones post the 2.2 million will be recognized in December ER. 2. Service revenue declined heavily from $800 million. 3. Operating expense goes up, instead of going down.

- In terms of numbers, the operating cost from the previous ER is $1.4 billion. From the $2.2 million phones (with $300 profit per phone estimate) to be recognized in the December ER, the estimate revenue from them is $600 million. So, we are left with $800 million operating cost left. The service revenue from the previous ER is $800 million. So, unless the 2.2. million phones were sold with profit with much less, than $300, and service revenue went down, then it seems likely to have a breakeven or profitable ER. Of course, these are just very simple numbers for rough calculations here. Maybe operating cost will decrease from $1.4 billion. How about the tax refund, which is supposed to offset the cost of CORE?

- My chart shows a wedge, as Morgan's does as well. The bottom part of this wedge is around $5.50. From my previous post, you might remember that I pointed out the three waves of MACD (blue lines) that correspond to every drop. I think, we cleared the third one, and are going to form a new trend. The possibilities in the next 10 days that I could anticipate are: 1. the SP continues to go down to $5.50. 2. the SP creates a new trend with a bullish whipsaw on the MACD that shows that it is declining right now. So, instead of continuing to go down below $6, it spikes up. When this happens, RSI should cross the downtrend line (the long black arrow) to 40ish. DMI shows that buying activity has not crossed upward.

- We would think that with the several recent positive news, the market would change its valuation of BBRY, but no......, even the short interest went up from the last report, instead of down. *sigh*

[dusdal]

It's good news. Obviously the 200 m is speculation but doesn't seem out of the question.

It's odd that Whatsapp wasn't included as they are the obvious IM leader.

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[sidhuk]

It's good news. Obviously the 200 m is speculation but doesn't seem out of the question.

It's odd that Whatsapp wasn't included as they are the obvious IM leader.

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

you mean "carefully" avoided whatsapp? LoL

[dusdal]

Hi all:

- For the December ER, I think, there is a possibility to show some profit. I could think of two reasons for another negative ER: 1. the amount of phones sold is much less, than the 2.2 million that were reported in the previous ER for recognition ER. This is considering that the amount of phones post the 2.2 million will be recognized in December ER. 2. Service revenue declined heavily from $800 million. 3. Operating expense goes up, instead of going down.

- In terms of numbers, the operating cost from the previous ER is $1.4 billion. From the $2.2 million phones (with $300 profit per phone estimate) to be recognized in the December ER, the estimate revenue from them is $600 million. So, we are left with $800 million operating cost left. The service revenue from the previous ER is $800 million. So, unless the 2.2. million phones were sold with profit with much less, than $300, and service revenue went down, then it seems likely to have a breakeven or profitable ER. Of course, these are just very simple numbers for rough calculations here. Maybe operating cost will decrease from $1.4 billion. How about the tax refund, which is supposed to offset the cost of CORE?

I missed these from you. Thanks!

Imo, item 1 is a likely outcome. I would be surprised if the uncertainty with the sale did not have a significant and negative impact on handset sales.

Also the CORE costs are likely to be much higher than anticipated, imo.

For the speed at which government moves I would be very surprised if any advanced tax returns would have made it for this reporting period. I'm not sure we can be certain that they will receive this at all, unless I missed some news?

Expecting a loss and hoping for a breakeven

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[bungaboy]

When people finally realize you Can't Grasp Knowledge they either blow you off or blow you over.

Like what happened here today . . .

[Superfly_FR]

Great news guys !
You have to side-load it but the new CB10 app is going beta, you can grab it here : http://forums.crackberry.com/showthread.php?t=880547

If you have a Z30 and/or 10.2... Run!!!
Edit : OMG, I can scroll pages !!!


Visit my BBM Channel !

[BergerKing]

BBM has definitely been a boon on my S3, and will be one of the first downloads when I switch phones in the next week or so, if not already pre-installed.

[cjcampbell]

I missed these from you. Thanks!

Imo, item 1 is a likely outcome. I would be surprised if the uncertainty with the sale did not have a significant and negative impact on handset sales.
Also the CORE costs are likely to be much higher than anticipated, imo.

For the speed at which government moves I would be very surprised if any advanced tax returns would have made it for this reporting period. I'm not sure we can be certain that they will receive this at all, unless I missed some news?

Expecting a loss and hoping for a breakeven

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

Although I do believe that the "for sale sign" more than likely had a negative impact, I do believe the recognized revenue will be on a higher number of handsets. The reason for this is the fact that many of the handsets sold last quarter were shipped in the previous and had the revenue already recognized. This time, it should, in theory, be a better representation. Now don't get me wrong, I don't expect a great ER, but I do expect to see a greater number beside revenue from handsets.

[bigbadben10]

BBM has definitely been a boon on my S3, and will be one of the first downloads when I switch phones in the next week or so, if not already pre-installed.

Pre-installed...you getting a Z30 BK

[BergerKing]

Pre-installed...you getting a Z30 BK

Not available on my carrier, unfortunately. Only one they have is a Q10,which doesn't work for me.

[dusdal]

Not available on my carrier, unfortunately. Only one they have is a Q10,which doesn't work for me.

Send me your address and we'll get you an unlocked one from Canadiana no problem

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[dusdal]

Although I do believe that the "for sale sign" more than likely had a negative impact, I do believe the recognized revenue will be on a higher number of handsets. The reason for this is the fact that many of the handsets sold last quarter were shipped in the previous and had the revenue already recognized. This time, it should, in theory, be a better representation. Now don't get me wrong, I don't expect a great ER, but I do expect to see a greater number beside revenue from handsets.

Yeah true enough. That should provide an outsized bump. Perhaps even one that the general market doesn't expect.

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[njblackberry]

The contra view that no one cares about.

- terrible sales
- additional writedowns or writeoffs
- loss from operations
- accelerated to write everyone off now and start clean with a new boss

I see no reason to guess that revenues went up.

[bigbadben10]

Not available on my carrier, unfortunately. Only one they have is a Q10,which doesn't work for me.

Thats no excuse, we can send you one from Canada...right boys!!

[dusdal]

Edit: this was intended to njaberry but I was too slow to have it appear directly underneath without quoting

I agree with you and think I said as much in an earlier post.

Higher CORE program cost due to layoffs and terrible handset sales due to angst and uncertainty.

Though I'm not anticipating additional write-downs.

If you look at the previous statement though you can see the lump of revenues that CJ mentioned which will help offset this to some degree.

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[dusdal]

Has anyone done a comparison for Kantar from September to October?

I summon thee Gesig! STATCOUNTER !!

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

[BergerKing]

Send me your address and we'll get you an unlocked one from Canadiana no problem

Van City Coffee ; WhitecapsFC ; PreMed Community ; Bristol Rovers Football Club

I'm on a CDMA carrier, which doesn't help matters. Can't put a GSM phone on them, otherwise I'd have gone that route.