[Randeman]

Kinda reminds me of a "Boilermaker". Sorta.

Just guessing, but I'm pretty certain Sidhuk is intimately familiar with real Boilermakers.

[_dimi_]

HOLY ****...

Morgan, would love to hear your thoughts here!

If this happens, they might have had informal discussions regarding a future acquisition. Compare it to Microsoft and Nokia years back. I can think of a few reasons why Google would want that. A lawsuit being the latest..

Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

I'd like to freeze the time right here for a minute or two and consider the situation, as a result of current management. I'm sure you don't need a sum-up, but let me try as short as possible.
edited: lol, that was ... two hours ago !

About the company

• BB10.2.0 is out and already raving reviewers, even those with previous moderate appreciation about 10.0 and 10.1. Improvements are clear and very welcomed.
• Z30 is out and is clearly demonstrating that BB10 can match what some have described as "better in legacy OS". Battery life is back, to name one. Because of its phablet caliber, I don't expect it'll steal the market. But it is the first real POC and I can't wait for next generation BB10.2.1.xxxx devices that would go further.
• While we don't know what BES figures are - and we can expect some serious foot on the break because of the restructuring process - the situation seems encouraging, and I've not heard of a large (Fortune 500) BlackBerry reference that stated they'd quit ship. Just none.
• BES in the Cloud is coming, and that was one major concern we used to discuss about for dozen pages earlier in this thread (and of course elsewhere in the forums)
• BBM multi-platform is in the wild and is quietly settling as a IM/social reference on the top 3 mobile operating systems. (By this, I mean we shouldn't expect it to be #1 in weeks, let's not shoot ourselves in the foot with exaggerated expectations) .
• BBM and BlackBerry brands are discussed - the bad, the good - a lot in social feeds; as long as it last, this maintains their value, to say the least.
• Drastic reorganization has been conducted (CORE is over, but more to come) and BlackBerry is now light staffed, witch ease to maneuver the ship in bad times. This also implies the company will contract external entities for several tasks, be them services or production (we don't know what, yet). This is an important point if you are - like I am - expecting selected partnerships to pop.
• Of course, I have to point out disappointing sales figures.

Now, there's the BBRY point

• They survived, and that's was not something many bet if we look 3 years back in the mirror
• Current situation - witch is far from static yet - leads in interesting directionS. Major change : BBRY as pulled off the "for sale" sign and they are not going private, something I personally considered as a counter-heart acceptance for BlackBerry salvation, but not as a good thing, nor for us shareholders than for the company growth. Standing in the public area - and still face exposition and media coverage - is the strongest testimony of confidence.
• "No one is interested by anything BBRY" was the common statement over the Street. Latest leaks we had proved it totally wrong (we knew it but couldn't prove it). Hardware, software, infrastructure ... all of them have been reviewed and estimated by external companies that seem to be interested to the point they actually made an offer. Waiting for the figures to pop, yet we can say that assets like patents valuation were ridiculously low in many analysis. The sum of these figures will probably lead to a revised BV growth. "The price is what the buyer wants to pay" has been used many times to counter what we believe was a fair BV, far over the current stock valuation. Let's add these figures and see how far we are from the 12-18Bil estimation.
• All the above did not happen in a day and is probably the result of a long (year(s)) established "agile" (aka the method) strategy.

post-writting warning : [take a deep breath, an English/French dictionary, some drinks, maybe an additional battery, your pills and ... courage ]

The tree that hides the forest
There's something behind the hoods we've not understood soon enough. First generation of BB10 devices were designed and built (Z10) quarters (not to say year) before BB10 actually hit the streets. "We" (I) have been somehow biased in their perception because it was such a drastic and encouraging change in BlackBerry offering that we have over estimated (again) their adoption rate.
BUT I believe BlackBerry - yes, I'm pointing at the marketing team - was aware of that. Companies use testing panels for decades now. And I cannot believe they didn't go threw this before launching the devices and that the results differed much from the situation we can note right now.

But then came the surprise. Half of early adopters were non former BlackBerry users. That was not expected and added a parameter that wasn't in the mix. While everybody was expecting a CrackBerry fans rush; it didn't happened, neither when the keyboard Q10 arrived, unfortunately. All the marketing mix was down: when they built everything on "[us] people that Do", that segment became half of the target. (FYI, standard metrics in marketing estimates that the cost for customer conquest is 10X the cost of loyal customer renew).
I must admit self-censorship. I've been invited at BlackBerry for Q10 (after-) launch and heard words that freaked me out: "Launch figures of the Q10 are pretty good". Dices had rolled: loyalists weren't aboard.

They knew it won't be a success.

So what could they do ?
Going "all in" and burn their cash treasure to force promote devices they knew very hard to sell and won't provide enough cash back ?
Gimme a rope ...

Emergency stop.
We've been discussing about the lack of promotion (some called it marketing), that weird campaign during Super Bowl with zero following, the Alicia Keys mystery and so on, for thousands of posts here in the forums.
We've been questioning about the lack of financial communication (this is marketing too, to the highest point) and how they possibly stand silent while the whole Street was killing the stock with a mix of crazy and founded rumors/leaks.

“Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory:
1 He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
2 He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.
3 He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks.
4 He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.
5 He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

It was all about the ugly word for some, the wise for many (me included) : retreat.

Time
So, they knew they couldn't make it with current devices and must rush out the next-gen.

Where to cut ? PlayBook was obvious, but - again - they had to sell those (including LTE) they had already built.
Unfair ? Yes. And they paid (and still pay) a high price for that: customers perception. It'll take years to reverse and - while it is basic knowledge no one can ignore - they knew about it. But they couldn't afford to maintain it: downsizing BB10 for PlayBook (witch sales were ... poor to say the least) was just impossible. Because it'll imply (shortcut here) two different "branches" of BB10 : a massive waste of time and counter-proof of the "bottom up unified mobile platform" paradigm: End of story.

In the meantime, restructuring process implied numerous bottlenecks; they had to deal with employees morale, define news processes, hire and comply new external resources ... and $pay for the whole.

Money
"Do not burn all cash"; round one failed: they must stand above the waterline. Because no one will trust nor loan a sinking company.
BES in free testing, not enough sales, lost of BIS revenues, Venezuela defection, restructuring costs ... holly crap what a disastrous situation.
The Street nailed it. Instantly. Welcome submarine, bye-bye roller-coaster. No matter the perspectives, no matter the current $2Bil+ cash: we're in a millisecond scale here. And their financial factual situation made all the trading models blink red. The stock became toxic to computers: take your loss and fly away. That's hundred of millions shares moving around. And then came what I name the Capitalism aberration : shorting to kill. How to survive this spiral ?

Shut the f|_|ck up.
Playing the turtle (not the ostrich) is the only way.
Only communicate among those that remain supportive ("the social loyalists"), do not unveil your "plan". Because the plan is now in "agile" mode, adapting weeks after weeks. And there's no way you can communicate about it, besides general statements like the "3 phases plan". No figures, no guidance, no answer. At this point, you know any single information you disclose have - by nature - 50% chances to be proven false, both on its fundings and realization.
So ... you bite your tongue and prepare for bashing avalanche.

People: humans, after all
Let's rewind to the pre-Heins period, Mike and Jim.
What killed them (and, obviously, the company) ?
Let's just remind these few words (PlayBook times) : "leapfrogging the competition" and convert it in two words : arrogance - blindness (choose one or add them).

That's where Heins and Boulben started from.
I cannot imagine how strong one must be to sustain such a pressure, from day one, when you arrive with a DOA indelible tatto on your face. Oh, fresh blood, energy, enthusiasm, vision ... sure. For a while. But if we look closer and remind what I stated (far) above, one can ask why they didn't resign nor get evicted by the BOD , stated they all knew first round won't be victory ?
Because they were there on purpose.
Everybody seems to forget that Heins was kinda (?) "Interim CEO" whose mission was to restructure the company and push out BlackBerry10 and BES10 in the wild. By then, he was perceived as the "cold German" and no one expected him to become as demonstrative as Jobs or Balmer. More, his "discreet profile" was pointed out as an advantage, given the previous co-CEO communication Armagedon. He did try, and improved his communication skills ... but you cannot turn a cart horse into race horse. Again, anybody at a CxO level knows that.
You can rant all you want about current sales results, I believe M. Heins did the most part of his duty. And I'm pretty sure he'll find a similar position in another company right away (if not already), that'll be my/your likelihood post-check.
My personal thank you goes here, Mister Heins.
Now Frank.
I'm sure you're close to headache (if ever you've reached this line lol) reading all this messy post: there were so many unattended events, so many sudden brake - and finally hand brake - that I'm not sure anyone (including me) can judge him. Again -as of date - he's still aboard and have not been evicted from the board. My perception is that the BOD/Heins clearly "retained the horse" because nor the timing than cash in hands were appropriate for the one shot only big circus to launch. Unless I lost anything marketing, the Super Bowl add couldn't be anything but a starting point. By no means this could have been a standalone one shot ad. No.way. We'll see in the near future who/what will be unleashed. But for now, the "massive investment promoting BB10 in FY 2014" words (or alike) we've heard in Heins' mouth during Q1 E.R stands unheeded: Emergency stop.

Bottom line
First, please excuse the messy stuff ordering above.
I wish I could make it more academic, but I must say it wasn't intended to be so long at start

Then, of course, where do I go from that ?
I believe the hardest part has been achieved: stay alive and "give time to time". And this is the exact opposite to "falling knife".
Nothing was set ready when Mike and Jim resigned. I believe the check list below is now in working order or ready to launch :
- A mature OS
- A mature device (Z30)
- A feature enhanced back-end (BES10.1.2)
Therefore, I stand convinced that we'll enjoy the communication "big circus" pretty soon. At a point I believe a large part of the FF&co $1Billion has been reserved for that.
I believe the "committee-FairFax-Heins(departure)" weeks have been set a long time ago and are the signal of a drastic turnaround.
I believe we'll see anouncements both on the company and product/services that all could be as of many "secret weapons" :
- Partnership/alliance/cobranding/Patent licensing
- 10.2.2.xxxx and Android Market (erase "app gap" in a swipe ... wow)
- New devices, comparing or superior to Z30 (witch is, to me, the FIRST 100% BB10 device)

Let's check this again ...

“Thus we may know that there are five essentials for victory:
1 He will win who knows when to fight and when not to fight.
2 He will win who knows how to handle both superior and inferior forces.
3 He will win whose army is animated by the same spirit throughout all its ranks. <=
4 He will win who, prepared himself, waits to take the enemy unprepared.
5 He will win who has military capacity and is not interfered with by the sovereign.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Ladies, gents,
I support BlackBerry, I bought BBRY shares. And I'm long holding, more than ever.
Let the party begin, finally !

... you can return to normal activity now ....

[bungaboy]

SuperFly_FR

I wish I could gift you this! For your brilliant post above. I stand with you, brother.

[plasmid_boy]

SuperFly_FR

I wish I could gift you this! For your brilliant post above. I stand with you, brother.

Cool, I want one for my Greg Lemont (which is more than 10 years old now, but I can't find a better bike to replace it. I recent Armstrong for killing Lemont Bikes).

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

I have used the 10.2.1xx It does show pin# in all 4corners of the screen and almost every Android app worked on it like native app.

[Bilaal]

I have used the 10.2.1xx It does show pin# in all 4corners of the screen and almost every Android app worked on it like native app.

The 10.2.1.XXXX which features Google Play (supposedly comes preloaded with the OS, so I hear) has a runtime which is completely unlocked, no restrictions and with Google Play, so any app you run will definitely be a better experience. Any 10.2.1 we all have right now is still the standard runtime, but I agree, this 4.2.2. is definitely a jump up to what we had with 10.1, but there's yet more to come :-)

[_dimi_]

The 10.2.1.XXXX which features Google Play (supposedly comes preloaded with the OS, so I hear) has a runtime which is completely unlocked, no restrictions and with Google Play, so any app you run will definitely be a better experience. Any 10.2.1 we all have right now is still the standard runtime, but I agree, this 4.2.2. is definitely a jump up to what we had with 10.1, but there's yet more to come :-)

So has the rumour been confirmed? BB 10.2.1 will have all Google Play apps? Will it work flawlessly with no security issues whatsoever? If so, what made this sudden break-though possible... hmm :-)


Posted via CB10

[Bilaal]

So has the rumour been confirmed? BB 10.2.1 will have all Google Play apps? Will it work flawlessly with no security issues whatsoever? If so, what made this sudden break-though possible... hmm :-)


Posted via CB10

Well, confirmed by a BerryLeaks member, a few credible CB posters including Bla1ze, including pictures of a Z10 running Google Play and a conversation between a colleague and a CB forum member.

We know the sand boxed runtime we currently have can't be rooted and 9/10 malicious apps require root access. If for whatever reason a rogue app makes it to Google Play and a BB10 user installs it, it will only affect the runtime and not the entire BlackBerry phone. This is my understanding so far, feel free to correct me.

With BlackBerry now having the Android Runtime available as a download on App World, the affected user can simply reinstall the runtime and everything will be back to normal.

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

The 10.2.1.XXXX which features Google Play (supposedly comes preloaded with the OS, so I hear) has a runtime which is completely unlocked, no restrictions and with Google Play, so any app you run will definitely be a better experience. Any 10.2.1 we all have right now is still the standard runtime, but I agree, this 4.2.2. is definitely a jump up to what we had with 10.1, but there's yet more to come :-)

If I remember correctly the leaked os also had unlocked run time. What I should have tried is that try to install Google play store and see if it would install through side load or not. I know Bungaboy has mentioned that he is been using 10.2.15x something. May be he had Frankensteind something? LOL. BROILER

[Bilaal]

If I remember correctly the leaked os also had unlocked run time. What I should have tried is that try to install Google play store and see if it would install through side load or not. I know Bungaboy has mentioned that he is been using 10.2.15x something. May be he had Frankensteind something? LOL. BROILER

My bad, I never explained it properly. Anything to do with Google Services and all that malarky is blacklisted by BlackBerry, so even with a current "unlocked" runtime, everything related to Google Play is blocked, including sideloading the Google Play apk. However, up until now, in later 10.2.1.XXXX builds, everything is truely unlocked and restrictions have been lifted, effectively making a debug token useless. Why worry about debug tokens when they're giving you one better....Google Play ;-)

[sidhuk]

My bad, I never explained it properly. Anything to do with Google Services and all that malarky is blacklisted by BlackBerry, so even with a current "unlocked" runtime, everything related to Google Play is blocked, including sideloading the Google Play apk. However, up until now, in later 10.2.1.XXXX builds, everything is truely unlocked and restrictions have been lifted, effectively making a debug token useless. Why worry about debug tokens when they're giving you one better....Google Play ;-)

This is definitely a game changer. Which should make bb10 os attractive to other hand set makers. BB10 can run smoothly on less expensive chips. It is secure and have flexibility of Android.
Right now, with BBM voice calls and secure manageable network, having access to almost all of Android apps, not sure why any one would Want any other device?

[bungaboy]

If I remember correctly the leaked os also had unlocked run time. What I should have tried is that try to install Google play store and see if it would install through side load or not. I know Bungaboy has mentioned that he is been using 10.2.15x something. May be he had Frankensteind something? LOL. BROILER

I am using 10.2.1.575 at present on my Z30. There are several newer 10.2.1.xxx leaks that I have yet to try.

[sidhuk]

I am using 10.2.1.575 at present on my Z30. There are several newer 10.2.1.xxx leaks that I have yet to try.

And that is the most stable leak that I found.
The Google play store news should effect the stock price. However, looking at the shorts behavior and confidence, my thoughts are that shorts declining numbers should be an indication that something positive is coming. Otherwise it is same pump and dump rumors.

[Markymark 23]

Lol, yeah I'm still in. I wanted to get out more than a few times but I'm stubborn and this underdog is worth supporting. There's lots of exciting buzz happening right now and despite the fact that my front row seat has cost a flippin fortune, when the curtain goes back up for that encore I'll have a pretty good view of the fireworks. Besides, I'm getting my new Q on Monday which'll shoot our SP right up. I think

[sati01]

The 10.2.1.XXXX which features Google Play (supposedly comes preloaded with the OS, so I hear) has a runtime which is completely unlocked, no restrictions and with Google Play, so any app you run will definitely be a better experience. Any 10.2.1 we all have right now is still the standard runtime, but I agree, this 4.2.2. is definitely a jump up to what we had with 10.1, but there's yet more to come :-)

Preinstalled is impossible, Google wouldn't approve that. Probably is a hack that the end user has to do, not a mainstream feature ready to use out of the box.
For example, you can install Google Play in the Kindle Fire and in Chinese white box phones and tablets, but they don't come with Google Play preinstalled from the manufacturer.

[peter9477]

Preinstalled is impossible, Google wouldn't approve that. Probably is a hack that the end user has to do, not a mainstream feature ready to use out of the box.
For example, you can install Google Play in the Kindle Fire and in Chinese white box phones and tablets, but they don't come with Google Play preinstalled from the manufacturer.

Is this some sort of rule that Google can't and won't ever break?

Or are you just speculating? You seem exceptionally sure of this info...

[wojciechp]

Superfly_FR, thank you for this amazing post. So many write things you have said here. I fully agree with you and God knows I have been and still am a very strong believer in this company. Fully invested including my wife's money who I constantly need to reassure that everything is going to be OK with our money. Long live BBRY!

Posted via CB10

[sati01]

Is this some sort of rule that Google can't and won't ever break?

Or are you just speculating? You seem exceptionally sure of this info...

I don't know if there is an explicit rule in this case. But I remember the case of Aliyun OS in which there was an explicit rule and Google enforced with energy.

This case is different, but It's similar in consequences for Android. Google has the control of Google Play, they don't need a rule to block BlackBerry using the same reasons:

"Compatibility is at the heart of the Android ecosystem and ensures a consistent experience for developers, manufacturers, and consumers," the company said in an e-mailed statement. "Non-compatible version of Android, like Aliyun, weaken the ecosystem."

Google: Alibaba's OS is an incompatible version of Android | Mobile - CNET News!

[bungaboy]

Is this some sort of rule that Google can't and won't ever break?

Or are you just speculating? You seem exceptionally sure of this info...

He's the 12 post wonder. To be sure he's must be in the "no"!

[bungaboy]

I don't know if there is an explicit rule in this case. But I remember the case of Aliyun OS in which there was an explicit rule and Google enforced with energy.

This case is different, but It's similar in consequences for Android. Google has the control of Google Play, they don't need a rule to block BlackBerry using the same reasons: . . . .

Now I know you are just kidding with us.

[sati01]

Now I know you are just kidding with us.

Do you have some sort of multiple personality disorder?

[notfanboy]

And that is the most stable leak that I found.
The Google play store news should effect the stock price. However, looking at the shorts behavior and confidence, my thoughts are that shorts declining numbers should be an indication that something positive is coming. Otherwise it is same pump and dump rumors.

Well there's this other matter that the market may be responding to, the fact that BBRY stock has sunk to historic lows. Wouldn't this be sufficient to explain the shorts declining numbers without resorting to some fanciful upcoming positive news?

[bungaboy]

Do you have some sort of multiple personality disorder?

Yes, of course. Sorry I forgot. You're new here.

[bungaboy]

Do you have some sort of multiple personality disorder?

Yes, of course. Sorry I forgot. You're new here.