The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
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- Personally I'm fascinated by this whole thing...can't recall another instance where these tactics have been used.
The trolls can troll, the cheap shot wimps can shoot away but the coming weeks should be fascinating and I'm looking forward to seeing what happens.
Posted via CB10
Bottom line right now is that we are all guessing. There could be conference calls galore right now or it could be crickets chirping in Waterloo.11-03-13 05:08 PMLike 10 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorNovember 1, 2013, 1:58 P.M. ET
BlackBerry: Dwindling Support for Share Price as Monday Looms for Fairfax, Says FBR
By Tiernan Ray
Shares of BlackBerry (BBRY) are down 11 cents, or 1.5%, at $7.81, after FBR Capital Markets’s Scott Thompson today reiterated an Underperform rating on the shares, and cut his price target to $6.50 from $8, writing that chances seem to be dimming for a deal to take the company private, or for an acquirer to step in, thus reducing support for the shares.
Deal with FF may nor arrive (a big assumption, let's pretend it's true).
No one else wants to bid (another big assumption, let's double).
=> BlackBerry isn't going private and the SP will likely dive on (bad) news = we're back to Q2 E.R "normal" situation.
Then what ?
At least they've won 2 months.
In the meantime BBM-x is out with the success we know.
BV calculation (from bottom 8 to top 16 ?) have been spread.
Let's talk partnership now: Equity partner anyone ? [put your fav company here] ?
BlackBerry needs money, they're late. Not lost.
Let the party begin.
edit: you know my fav.11-03-13 05:16 PMLike 4 - They need Money and TIME.
BBMX means nothing as a revenue steam right now. And unfortunately neither does BB10 or BES10. BlackBerry needs time to get these products acceptable to whom ever they expect to market them to. All the while they become more and more irrelevant.
Posted via CB1011-03-13 05:32 PMLike 0 - Longs only need one really good deal (and it appears there are many). Shorts need all deals to fail. Where would your money be at this hour?
Hope the pigs finally get slaughtered11-03-13 05:58 PMLike 12 -
- They need Money and TIME.
BBMX means nothing as a revenue steam right now. And unfortunately neither does BB10 or BES10. BlackBerry needs time to get these products acceptable to whom ever they expect to market them to. All the while they become more and more irrelevant.
Posted via CB1011-03-13 06:08 PMLike 10 - Let's sum up.
Deal with FF may nor arrive (a big assumption, let's pretend it's true).
No one else wants to bid (another big assumption, let's double).
=> BlackBerry isn't going private and the SP will likely dive on (bad) news = we're back to Q2 E.R "normal" situation.
Then what ?
At least they've won 2 months.
In the meantime BBM-x is out with the success we know.
BV calculation (from bottom 8 to top 16 ?) have been spread.
Let's talk partnership now: Equity partner anyone ? [put your fav company here] ?
BlackBerry needs money, they're late. Not lost.
Let the party begin.
edit: you know my fav.
Posted via CB1011-03-13 07:12 PMLike 3 - 11-03-13 07:40 PMLike 3
- Interesting, I didn't realize Qualcomm relied so much on BlackBerry for revenues:
BlackBerry’s future still uncertain as key deadline nears - The Globe and Mail11-03-13 08:06 PMLike 5 -
The shorts don't need any deal to fail because they are short from much higher levels.
The level of ignorance in this thread surpasses anything else at Crackberry. No wonder so many B-school types want to trade for the big floors. The self-styled advisors in this thread who liked your post should be ashamed.11-03-13 09:13 PMLike 2 - "The shorts don't need any deal to fail because they are short from much higher levels. "
One of the stupidest thing's I've ever read. All i can say is LOL! and welcome to my block list.
Fascinating. The shorts need all deals to fail, do they? Do you actually not understand that professional shorts are so far in the money at this point that they are looking at huge gains even if the stock gaps? Do you actually not understand that they've used options to hedge against a news driven spike? Do you not understand that the only people in danger of losing money on a short are the retail types who shorted 100 shares and won't be able to stick to their stops?
The shorts don't need any deal to fail because they are short from much higher levels.
The level of ignorance in this thread surpasses anything else at Crackberry. No wonder so many B-school types want to trade for the big floors.11-03-13 09:15 PMLike 4 -
--------------------------------------
EDIT: The pattern of likes above suggests the latter...11-03-13 09:19 PMLike 2 -
They have fans, but as we all know to well, it doesn't mean that everyone else will want one.
Didn't porsche do a hybrid? I could swear I read about it and the conclusion was awe.
Posted via CB1011-03-13 09:30 PMLike 0 - It's unreal. If I didn't read this stuff on here, I wouldn't have believed that people could be so totally misinformed. The only question is - did they start off misinformed or did someone in this thread tell them that professional shorts initiated their positions at $8??
--------------------------------------
EDIT: The pattern of likes above suggests the latter...11-03-13 09:30 PMLike 0 -
For anyone reading any of this who has been told or has come to believe that professional shorts are in any danger with their BBRY positions, please take some time to inform yourself about how the markets work, and specifically about how pros hedge their positions.11-03-13 09:42 PMLike 2 - One can take historical short data and correspond it to share price.
No offense but there were not a lot of shorts at $90 or $30 for that matter. Want to guess when? Your comments pretend much prove that you don't.
And what makes you the expert?
Posted via CB10Last edited by kfh227; 11-03-13 at 10:22 PM.
11-03-13 10:07 PMLike 6 - You're probably right, but how could anyone believe that pro shorts are in trouble at these levels? Maybe they're unaware that the stock traded down from whatever, $90? They believe that people have piled into the stock short at $8 after watching it trade down from $80??
For anyone reading any of this who has been told or has come to believe that professional shorts are in any danger with their BBRY positions, please take some time to inform yourself about how the markets work, and specifically about how pros hedge their positions.
Many of those calls are way out of the money (over $20) and were likely longs speculating , (there are no leaps currently other than the jan 2015). Perhaps half of the total open interest is truely those short who are hedging themselves, that still leaves more than 100 million net short.
Many of those short are likely short vs. an index or maybe a pairs trade of of other long positions like AAPL, could be some market neutral funds as well.Last edited by kadakn01; 11-03-13 at 10:24 PM.
11-03-13 10:14 PMLike 7 -
My only contention is that it's ignorant and dangerous to suggest that 'shorts need all deals to fail'. Anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of trading would know this. It's one of the dumbest things I've ever read on this site. Since you seem to have some sort of understanding about what short selling is (as opposed to the member I quoted) you know that pro shorts are short from much higher levels. As you suggest, shorts are established for a variety of reasons, but that doesn't change the fact that when a tech stock goes from $90 to $7.84, the shorts have already made a killing.techvisor likes this.11-03-13 10:24 PMLike 1 -
I'm not an expert. I just know when to keep my mouth shut and not talk out my a.s.s. when the topic is something I know nothing about.
Pros have shorted this stock and made their hundreds of millions. It's all over for them. What's so hard for you people to understand about this?? <<rude comment removed by moderator>>Last edited by HelloNNNewman; 11-03-13 at 11:36 PM. Reason: insulting members
11-03-13 10:29 PMLike 0 - Are you going by the short interest published on the financial pages? Do you actually believe that that figure represents the total short interest on a stock like this?
I'm not an expert. I just know when to keep my mouth shut and not talk out my a.s.s. when the topic is something I know nothing about.
Pros have shorted this stock and made their hundreds of millions. It's all over for them. What's so hard for you people to understand about this?? Are you all that stoned on the Kool-Aid?11-03-13 10:35 PMLike 4 - How can voting rights be properly adjusted if shares are "secretly shorted"?
No offense, but you sound like someone that spends most of their time researching who the real killer of JFK was or how the moon landing was hoaxed. Why not spend 10 minutes seeing if there is any easily available information that answers the question at hand. How accurate are publicly available short interest numbers?
What does the number 421 matter to this discussion just to prove you have some clue.
Posted via CB10Last edited by kfh227; 11-03-13 at 10:51 PM.
11-03-13 10:40 PMLike 0 - you said "Do you actually not understand that they've used options to hedge against a news driven spike?"
a basic assumption here is that you are implying that they are all protected, you did not say some of them are hedged. The reality is the majority are unhedged. Have you ever seen one of the smartest shorts, Bill Ackman's losses on Herbalife as an example?
I don't normally engage in this manner, but to see you ridicule others is like the pot calling the kettle black. I have no issue with your opposing views, every company I analyze is based on a good, bad and ugly scenerio. All value investors focus on margin of safety and not the amount they will make. Heads I win and tails I don't lose much.11-03-13 10:45 PMLike 15 - you said "Do you actually not understand that they've used options to hedge against a news driven spike?"
a basic assumption here is that you are implying that they are all protected, you did not say some of them are hedged. The reality is the majority are unhedged. Have you ever seen one of the smartest shorts, Bill Ackman's losses on Herbalife as an example?
I don't normally engage in this manner, but to see you ridicule others is like the pot calling the kettle black. I have no issue with your opposing views, every company I analyze is based on a good, bad and ugly scenerio. All value investors focus on margin of safety and not the amount they will make. Heads I win and tails I don't lose much.11-03-13 10:49 PMLike 3
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