[Im Mo Green]

now qcom to join cerbarus and mike/doug group.

[abouthsu]

Bloomberg breaking news is claiming that Fairfax is short of the cash.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk

I'm no expert and strictly thinking out of logic and assumptions. So let's put aside for a moment on how much we think BBRY is really worth but With Q3 ER only a month and a bit away, if come Monday the offer doesn't firm up, I would think and guess the SP will tank a little bit more and who knows how low. What I don't get is, if Prem deal doesn't go through, and for strategic reasons, BBRY patents and XBBM plus whatever they got will worth something, but when others bidders finally reveal them self whether they want to buy the company as a while out in pieces, wouldn't the offer be even lower at that time. While they share holders would still need to approve but as things keep on deteriorating, stop losses will be trigger, causing downward pressure. I'm trying to think of a scenario why other bidders would be willing to pay more when the market rate is lower.

[abouthsu]

Also if one were to wait for another qtr which will probably at a loss, might not be as much with the restructuring and cost saving but, wouldn't it make sense to come in and offer something. I'm probably missing a lot of things here but the simple thing I learned from options is why exercise a contact when the market is cheaper. OMO.

[_dimi_]

If the Qualcomm rumour is true, I ask:

Why does ML find partners while there has been a strategic review going on for over a year now :-) what is the BoD doing.. does anyone believe they actually have a few options?!

Posted via CB10

[slipstream89]

True but you can't dismiss their reports seeing how they been spot on in regards to these negotiations. Atleast the WSJ one has i dont know if blomberg has the same source

FF didn't say a thing. In fact, they declined to comment on the matter. It is the "people with knowledge of the matter" and "who asked not to be named because the process is private". Come on. These people ought to keep their mouth shut or they do not understand the meaning of the simple word "private" if they actually have any knowledge of the matter.

[silversun10]

Also if one were to wait for another qtr which will probably at a loss, might not be as much with the restructuring and cost saving but, wouldn't it make sense to come in and offer something. I'm probably missing a lot of things here but the simple thing I learned from options is why exercise a contact when the market is cheaper. OMO.

the difference is that the negotiations are based on the sale of the whole company and based on the longer term value, while the stock price is based on what the market "thinks" that is going on at the negotiation table...the market might have guessed right or not, when the market guesses wrong you see those big spikes or crashes of 20-30-40%

[silversun10]

???

Fairfax Said Short of BlackBerry Bid Financing as Deadline Looms - Bloomberg

The only way that makes sense to me is, if Prem is aware of a better deal by Mike Lazarides and he simply yields and stopped really trying to get the financing done

[slipstream89]

Wouldn't that be bad for the SP though, I thought basically FF deal was establishing a floor price and if he just backs off bids will come in even lower

The only way that makes sense to me is, if Prem is aware of a better deal by Mike Lazarides and he simply yields and stopped really trying to get the financing done

[abouthsu]

the difference is that the negotiations are based on the sale of the whole company and based on the longer term value, while the stock price is based on what the market "thinks" that is going on at the negotiation table...the market might have guessed right or not, when the market guesses wrong you see those big spikes or crashes of 20-30-40%

Thnx, I suppose we will know more by Monday.

[silversun10]

Wouldn't that be bad for the SP though, I thought basically FF deal was establishing a floor price and if he just backs off bids will come in even lower

not necessarily, if ML comes in with anything higher than $9, why wouldn't Prem yield? the best thing that could happen is if Prem drops out after he figures he can't compete...

[michaelshawn]

Umm why is there 32 million volume on bbry?? Is that good or bad?


Posted via CB10

[cgk]

not necessarily, if ML comes in with anything higher than $9, why wouldn't Prem yield? the best thing that could happen is if Prem drops out after he figures he can't compete...

Why is he going to come in at more than $9?

[silversun10]

Why is he going to come in at more than $9?

otherwise Prem wouldn't yield...

[fin2007]

Now Mike L., Cerberus, and QCOM are forming a consortium to put a bid, we really need PW to get financing to make a floor for longs.

It is also good for PW himself too, if he could not get the finance on Monday, then the deal between him and bbry will expire and he would not qualify for 30cents breakup fee if someone else bids, thought it is only 30cents, actually to him it is $3 for him since he only owns 10% shares.

The worst case for long is PW withdraws his offer and join the group of Mike L. and lower the offer.
If PW is not part of Mike's group, then the offer would not get pass if the offer is too low because PW will object that.

[silversun10]

Now Mike L., Cerberus, and QCOM are forming a consortium to put a bid, we really need PW to get financing to make a floor for longs.

It is also good for PW himself too, if he could not get the finance on Monday, then the deal between him and bbry will expire and he would not qualify for 30cents breakup fee if someone else bids, thought it is only 30cents, actually to him it is $3 for him since he only owns 10% shares.

The worst case for long is PW withdraws his offer and join the group of Mike L. and lower the offer.
If PW is not part of Mike's group, then the offer would not get pass if the offer is too low because PW will object that.

Prem has always said he would have the financing, no reason to doubt him...and so his bid is still the floor...the market may not believe that now, but they will find out soon enough

[Soumaila Somtore]

I am tempted to take a vacation and watch this think unfold.

this weekend will be very interesting....hard not to have this on your mind. Praying for good outcome...we are in need of one with all the disappoint this stock has brought to us

[fin2007]

Prem has always said he would have the financing, no reason to doubt him...and so his bid is still the floor...the market may not believe that now, but they will find out soon enough

Personally I would agree it should not be hard for PW to find financing, as we all know right now every country's government is printing paper money in rocket speed.

But sometimes you have to give credit to reports from Bloomberg. I have not seen they made many mistakes on reporting financing news whether it is BBRY or someone else.

[Bacon Munchers]

the plot thickens...the easy way out for Google buy BB...

Hey Sun, et. Al:

Man! I am really torn over entertaining the hamster spinning in my head with some thoughts regarding Google paying out lots of $ for BlackBerry in order to dodge the current lawsuit, and have patents, etc. to arm them going forth to really destroy the competition.
The reason for my dilemma, is that Google owning BlackBerry would dirty that sweet brand, not to mention fueling the conspiracy theorists (read: me!) that don't want a spy device in my pocket.... just sayin'.

[Bacon Munchers]

Also if one were to wait for another qtr which will probably at a loss, might not be as much with the restructuring and cost saving but, wouldn't it make sense to come in and offer something. I'm probably missing a lot of things here but the simple thing I learned from options is why exercise a contact when the market is cheaper. OMO.

Hey About:

I liked your earlier post, as it reflected my concerns too.

I do, however, think we will have a pleasant surprise next ER....

[kadakn01]

Another comment that Prem Watsa said in the Q&A today that I found interesting is what he said again about fairfax and being sold for double the current price and about his reputation and his legacy. Think what you may about him, but greed is not his motivation, and also about his long term focus.




"Any of our subsidiaries, insurance subsidiaries are not for sale. We're going to hold them forever. And secondly, Fairfax itself is not for sale. I've said it very clearly to companies. I have, in my boarding interest, I consider it to be a controlling interest. And I said to our shareholders that if someone comes in with a price, twice today's price, I wouldn't sell. So that's it for -- this is our 28th year, and I've said that, I think, 4 or 5 times over that time period. So Paul, yes, none of our companies are for sale. Because of that, we have -- we enjoy a huge amount of loyalty from our people. I've said this also before. The presidents of our companies who have run our subsidiaries, we've never lost one president, never lost one president who has been successful in our operation. We've had retirements early on in our 28 years. We've had full competence, and we've had people that would leave us. But people who've been successful have been with us for a long time: Andy Bernard, the better part of 20 years; Brian Young, better part of 20 years; and on and on and on. Silvy is -- Silvy Wright's been with us for the better part of 20 also. So for all those reasons, it's a big, big competitive advantage, we think, to have our subsidiaries owned forever, that it will never be sold. So our presidents can look after the operations, not having to look back and see if the head office will decide to sell them because they have 1 year or 2 of poor performance. So I want to be very specific. Thank you for asking that question, Paul, but I want to be very specific to all our shareholders."

Posted via CB10

[Zimbad]

UPDATE 2-Fairfax struggles to raise funds for BlackBerry bid -sources | Reuters

[OMGitworks]

Is this true? Can Anyone confirm?
Nasdaq options market halted Friday:

Nasdaq Options Market to remain halted until close - Yahoo Finance

Sorry my massive 8 contracts screwed up the system.

[silversun10]

UPDATE 2-Fairfax struggles to raise funds for BlackBerry bid -sources | Reuters

Cerberus, Qualcomm in Talks to Join BlackBerry Bid - WSJ.com
BlackBerry Bidders Start to Circle
Cerberus, Qualcomm in Talks to Join Founders Lazaridis and Fregin as Monday Deadline Looms

[spiller]

Because all of the talk and no action results in uncertainty in the buying public. BBM does not generate revenue now, does it? What favorable news? That 1000 are sold here or there? The uncertainty is killing the market for BlackBerrys, their services and any revenue. You don't see that as an issue?

And if there is no deal and the stock continues its slide, the death watch (incorrect or not) will continue. Which will drive the stock lower.

No deal = more uncertainty. As someone who is long you should hope for certainty.

What is with this "BBM does not generate revenue". No it doesn't. But twitter is losing more than it's taking in and it is valued at 11 billion. It is valued based on 'potential' of the user base. BBM now has about 100M users. It is worth at least 1B.

[Shanerredflag]

Ooops...apologies