[danprown]

I believe the letter of intent triggers all the SEC rules on "tender offers" and it would be illegal for FF to do so. However, as it is end of month as it was pointed out, I think if someone had non-public information about the bid, it could be a nice excuse to dump but I doubt it is worth the potential adverse legal exposure.

Could it be FF dumping some shares before Monday? Would that be insider trading knowing if they aren't confirming financing that the stock may tank?

[spiller]

I believe the letter of intent triggers all the SEC rules on "tender offers" and it would be illegal for FF to do so. However, as it is end of month as it was pointed out, I think if someone had non-public information about the bid, it could be a nice excuse to dump but I doubt it is worth the potential adverse legal exposure.

Well let's see how it fares today at the close. Another big dump....? I would like Prem to finalize his offer at 3:30 today as the shorts fill up the bandwagon....

[danprown]

Well, more than half of the float is consistently shorted; it stands to reason today will be no different. A firm bid on Monday may fill up the bandwagon better.

Well let's see how it fares today at the close. Another big dump....? I would like Prem to finalize his offer at 3:30 today as the shorts fill up the bandwagon....

[JLagoon]

I don't understand the insanity behind this SP movement. Blackberry has gotten new BES10 clients, and great BBMx downloads. Somehow these news that used to be considered as positive catalysts do not have any effect at all. Instead the SP has fallen ridiculously. WTF?

[cjcampbell]

I don't understand the insanity behind this SP movement. Blackberry has gotten new BES10 clients, and great BBMx downloads. Somehow these news that used to be considered as positive catalysts do not have any effect at all. Instead the SP has fallen ridiculously. WTF?

None of this matters to the street. EVERYTHING at the moment is revolving around the outcome of Monday. Until we get there, they could announce a 10 million phone order and still, the price wouldn't budge.

[OMGitworks]

So I just made a PPP, a Pure Prem Play. Bought $500 worth of Dec 8 calls - a whopping 8 contracts at $63 each. Probably a waste of $500 but I guess we will see........... It's about what I am up on HALO so easy come, easy go. Have to go watch my daughter's HS soccer playoff game in the rain and wind so it may turn out I take a bath all day... GLTA. How about it Prem???

[plasmid_boy]

So I just made a PPP, a Pure Prem Play. Bought $500 worth of Dec 8 calls - a whopping 8 contracts at $63 each. Probably a waste of $500 but I guess we will see........... It's about what I am up on HALO so easy come, easy go. Have to go watch my daughter's HS soccer playoff game in the rain and wind so it may turn out I take a bath all day... GLTA. How about it Prem???

Balls of steel now feels like riverboat gamble. LOL

Posted via CB10

[danprown]

I think the reasons are relatively simple:

1. BES10 and QNX, i.e. software, are only a 80 MM revenue a quarter business in a shrinking 1.5 Billion market. BES without hardware licensing/partnership is, therefore, starting from the bottom in a crowded market.

2. BBMx is a great complement to an ongoing business (e.g. Instagram to Facebook, Skype to Microsoft) but on its own is akin a pre-IPO strart up business. No one is going to buy the whole of BBRY just for BBMx.

So the key is: what is going on with the hardware business. BBRY needs a strategic partner or licensing deal (so it can provide end to end security) and both BBMx and BES then add value and all longs (or Prem Watsa) win.

I don't understand the insanity behind this SP movement. Blackberry has gotten new BES10 clients, and great BBMx downloads. Somehow these news that used to be considered as positive catalysts do not have any effect at all. Instead the SP has fallen ridiculously. WTF?

[fin2007]

I don't understand the insanity behind this SP movement. Blackberry has gotten new BES10 clients, and great BBMx downloads. Somehow these news that used to be considered as positive catalysts do not have any effect at all. Instead the SP has fallen ridiculously. WTF?

You count on BES too much, it only has 60M revenue per quarter and is shrinking.
BBM really does not mean anything to an investor, there are like 10+ messager services which are currently having way more users than BBM, and most are still losing money.

In the end, BBRY's value is still mostly on its patents. If someone could value the patents at 3B+, then 4.7B is definitely a steal.

[michaelshawn]

Why would mike l need to put a bid on his own company? Can't he just come back, keep the company public and go from there??

Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

Why would mike l need to put a bid on his own company? Can't he just come back, keep the company public and go from there??

Posted via CB10

Only if the BOD says so ans since they have already shown him the door once, I highly doubt they invite him back in. If they do, the SP will tank.

[jake simmons3]

If PREM really did intend to make good on his 9 dollar a share offer , he and his backers would be buying up every share they could under 9 dollars. The fact that the price is in the 7's tells me that there has been no accumulation of share by any 3rd party or Prem. This fact alone tells us that there wont be an official offer for the entire company anytime soon.

[the_sleuth]

This is playing out like a high stakes Texas Hold'em. The river card will be shown Monday.

Good luck longs. I wouldn't want to be in your shoes. Heroes and martyrs are both seen in a positive light, except one is dead.

Sent from CB app on Android

[michaelshawn]

If PREM really did intend to make good on his 9 dollar a share offer , he and his backers would be buying up every share they could under 9 dollars. The fact that the price is in the 7's tells me that there has been no accumulation of share by any 3rd party or Prem. This fact alone tells us that there wont be an official offer for the entire company anytime soon.

Morgan what's your take on this?

Posted via CB10

[danprown]

They have to file SEC disclosures. If they started buying that means they have the money and the SP will shoot up to 9. It is not that easy to be sneaky... the rules of tender offers are well established.

If PREM really did intend to make good on his 9 dollar a share offer , he and his backers would be buying up every share they could under 9 dollars. The fact that the price is in the 7's tells me that there has been no accumulation of share by any 3rd party or Prem. This fact alone tells us that there wont be an official offer for the entire company anytime soon.

[morganplus8]

If PREM really did intend to make good on his 9 dollar a share offer , he and his backers would be buying up every share they could under 9 dollars. The fact that the price is in the 7's tells me that there has been no accumulation of share by any 3rd party or Prem. This fact alone tells us that there wont be an official offer for the entire company anytime soon.

And what makes you think they haven't bought up all the shares so far? It smells of manipulation here. Prem can't buy anything without crossing the 10% threshold, he feels the company has strong enough assets that he can finance the whole deal and retain a full 30% of the newly created shell company. Mike L would be dead against this as it dilutes his ownership in BBRY. I'm not sure how badly Prem wants to own BlackBerry, it shows in the confidence of the MM's who are pushing the stock around today. Mike L would have a much better time getting financing because he is there to preserve "only" his 5.6% ownership and the company as a whole. Prem is the odd man out in all of this.

I'm torn by this whole thing as I'm one of those who want the company to partner up and stay listed, that might create some pain in the short-term but a better solution in the long term. All of the players are held to a letter silence, they cannot become "a reliable source" to anyone and that is the perfect playground for MMs to push the stock around. Prem could be buying stock through others but he has stated clearly that he feels BlackBerry is so valuable he can finance the whole deal easily. We'll see what he truly thinks on Nov 4th but all other players are waiting to see if he goes forth with an offer at that time. That breakup fee has ruined what could have been a really interesting auction.

The best thing to do is ignore the media, ignore the price action of the stock and remind ourselves that:

To get rid of the NSA problem you have to Buy BBRY,

To get rid of the Patent Trolling issues, you have to Buy BBRY,

To get the world's most secure Network, you have to Buy BBRY,

The list goes on .........................

[silversun10]

Why would mike l need to put a bid on his own company? Can't he just come back, keep the company public and go from there??

Posted via CB10

it is NOT his own company...does he own 100% of the shares? No.

[morlock_man]

Finally got approvals to start my small business. Been a busy few weeks.

What'd I miss?

And who let the fire die out in the BBRY SP hot air balloon?

[njblackberry]

The wishful thinking continues. PT Barnum was right. He also believed in TA.

[morganplus8]

Morgan what's your take on this?

Posted via CB10

michaelshawn!!!

While you were asking the question, I was busy typing a response. Prem was given a crazy deal that you just don't see, I have never come across a breakup fee like this one in my career. He controls the fate of the company until Nov 4th and let's hope nothing beyond that date. There is no incentive for MSFT to step up and make an offer until Nov 4th passes. The same can be said for Mike L and the others. What does make sense is for everyone to sit on their hands and do nothing until Prem loses the rights to that dumb breakup fee. If it plays out well, Prem will drop the breakup fee, and the company itself will state the interests of others. MSFT would be foolish not to buy BlackBerry at this bargain basement price level. If Prem opens the door to others, you will likely see some heavy buying in the stock. The expectation is that Prem "fails" to get financing, the stock drops because the company will now go bankrupt, it is worthless, Prem will depart be selling his position, everything possibly negative that you can think of, the media will be all over this event, .................. and the stock goes up! Prem's offer is $ 1.6 - $ 2.1 Billion, less cash, that is peanuts for a company that has real estate worth that much today. I maintain, Book Value is where the company should be bought out at. Nothing less than that makes sense, just ask Mikey.

Prem needs to finance $ 4.7 B minus cash minus his owned stock, that is no money at all. He could be in talks with MSFT, Samsung and others to get his commitment to offer up his shares at $ 13.00 - $ 17.00/shr plus the breakup fee. Who knows what deals are being made behind closed doors. I think Mike needs at least BV to get out, most of us do too, Prem is slightly better off right now with the breakup fee. At $ 16.50/shr, minus cash, MSFT would only have to pay $ 5.5 B to own it all, ECC, BBM-X, Patents, Real Estate, BES 10.1, BB 10.2 ..... 24 million in handset sales. This is a huge list of assets for less than what they paid for NOK handsets alone. Don't be fooled by the price of the stock!!

[W Hoa]

BBM is still #1 overall at Google play and still #1 in New Releases

https://play.google.com/store/apps/top

BBM is #4 overall for iOS in the US and is #1 in Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia etc

App Annie App Store Data | iOS Top Charts United States - Overall - Nov 01, 2013

[ibpluto]

BBM is still #1 overall at Google play and still #1 in New Releases

https://play.google.com/store/apps/top

BBM is #4 overall for iOS in the US and is #1 in Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia etc

App Annie App Store Data | iOS Top Charts United States - Overall - Nov 01, 2013

Wow, I cannot beleive there are no useful apps in the top 50 for either free or paid. Everything is either games or social media. Do people not use their phones to get anything done anymore?

[njblackberry]

michaelshawn!!!

While you were asking the question, I was busy typing a response. Prem was given a crazy deal that you just don't see, I have never come across a breakup fee like this one in my career. He controls the fate of the company until Nov 4th and let's hope nothing beyond that date. There is no incentive for MSFT to step up and make an offer until Nov 4th passes. The same can be said for Mike L and the others. What does make sense is for everyone to sit on their hands and do nothing until Prem loses the rights to that dumb breakup fee. If it plays out well, Prem will drop the breakup fee, and the company itself will state the interests of others. MSFT would be foolish not to buy BlackBerry at this bargain basement price level. If Prem opens the door to others, you will likely see some heavy buying in the stock. The expectation is that Prem "fails" to get financing, the stock drops because the company will now go bankrupt, it is worthless, Prem will depart be selling his position, everything possibly negative that you can think of, the media will be all over this event, .................. and the stock goes up! Prem's offer is $ 1.6 - $ 2.1 Billion, less cash, that is peanuts for a company that has real estate worth that much today. I maintain, Book Value is where the company should be bought out at. Nothing less than that makes sense, just ask Mikey.

Prem needs to finance $ 4.7 B minus cash minus his owned stock, that is no money at all. He could be in talks with MSFT, Samsung and others to get his commitment to offer up his shares at $ 13.00 - $ 17.00/shr plus the breakup fee. Who knows what deals are being made behind closed doors. I think Mike needs at least BV to get out, most of us do too, Prem is slightly better off right now with the breakup fee. At $ 16.50/shr, minus cash, MSFT would only have to pay $ 5.5 B to own it all, ECC, BBM-X, Patents, Real Estate, BES 10.1, BB 10.2 ..... 24 million in handset sales. This is a huge list of assets for less than what they paid for NOK handsets alone. Don't be fooled by the price of the stock!!

WOW - this is a great deal. Why has no one stepped up yet? Why are people waiting for the 4th, in the expectation that some great deal will be announced? What do you see that other corporations and prospective buyers do not. And the stock keeps dropping, making some superb bit less and less likely.

And yes, we all know how great BBM and their security is. No one seems to care.

[Soumaila Somtore]

so fare I got more than 45 persons converted and using BBM, got a lot that downloaded but still thinking, got some that say no way OSes, but still trying to converted every time one more.

BBM is still #1 overall at Google play and still #1 in New Releases

https://play.google.com/store/apps/top

BBM is #4 overall for iOS in the US and is #1 in Canada, India, Indonesia, Malaysia etc

App Annie App Store Data | iOS Top Charts United States - Overall - Nov 01, 2013

[cjcampbell]

WOW - this is a great deal. Why has no one stepped up yet? Why are people waiting for the 4th, in the expectation that some great deal will be announced? What do you see that other corporations and prospective buyers do not. And the stock keeps dropping, making some superb bit less and less likely.

And yes, we all know how great BBM and their security is. No one seems to care.

I'll say it again.... Why would any other offer show up until there is a firm offer from PW? If he does not firm it up, they can offer a premium to the current sp and get it for less. At the moment, they would have to come in higher than PW's. We are talking billions of dollars here, not some estate auction so patience is practiced.