The BBRY Café. [Formerly: I support BBRY and I buy shares!]
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- Ok... so now that I have updated my Mac, and although I haven't spent too much time exploring the new OS, I have to say it's pretty darn good. It's a lot better than the update I got the other day to my previous OS which really botched things and slowed everything down. This browser is the fastest I've seen to date. Like REALLY fast. Holy crap!! And, it's on 2007 hardware.
Posted via CB1010-26-13 08:12 PMLike 0 - I was before... now it's too fast to move at a zombie's paceShanerredflag and BergerKing like this.10-26-13 08:13 PMLike 2
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On side note my mother works for Harper Gov and she just upgraded her BlackBerry this week. Got the top of line according to their it guy... a 9900. Gov STILL has not approved BB10 for use. Wtf is taking so long. That's about 40-50k (or more) phones a year!!!! If they want to support BlackBerry they should start using them. And BlackBerry should be helping them switch servers etc over!!!! These are guaranteed annual sales!!! GUARANTEED sales. BlackBerry kinda needs more of those right now .......
Posted via CB1010-27-13 01:27 AMLike 6 - Another positive article, only missing features are already known and in the works atleast the article has that in it as well
BBM: app is speedy, secure- but missing some features10-27-13 03:20 AMLike 0 - Just gotta say it really is too bad and super frustrating that the market will likely continue to give zero valuation for BBM because of the $9 cap on the stock price. Any other new company with a product / service like BBM would be skyrocketing in the market. I really hope the board is ready to do something; enough is enough already.10-27-13 03:37 AMLike 10
- Just gotta say it really is too bad and super frustrating that the market will likely continue to give zero valuation for BBM because of the $9 cap on the stock price. Any other new company with a product / service like BBM would be skyrocketing in the market. I really hope the board is ready to do something; enough is enough already.10-27-13 04:45 AMLike 8
- Hi Morgan!
*touches wood* - Assuming a partnership does happen for their hardware division: Would the company have to downsize much to cope with their new revenue model?
I'm guessing a partnership would be favourable. But can we really compare Nokia's revenue model to BlackBerry in its current situation?
Just trying to see how the market could react.10-27-13 04:58 AMLike 0 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorSince when didn't I have written MSFT here ?
Think Skype native. Think Skype enterprise. Think BBM features.
Shake.
Pray.
And get BBMSkype or SkypeBBM or BBMWP... whatever you wanna name it.
Kaboom.
That's from my awesome Z30.10-27-13 06:17 AMLike 3 - Interesting.
On side note my mother works for Harper Gov and she just upgraded her BlackBerry this week. Got the top of line according to their it guy... a 9900. Gov STILL has not approved BB10 for use. Wtf is taking so long. That's about 40-50k (or more) phones a year!!!! If they want to support BlackBerry they should start using them. And BlackBerry should be helping them switch servers etc over!!!! These are guaranteed annual sales!!! GUARANTEED sales. BlackBerry kinda needs more of those right now .......
Posted via CB10
And, it's our government, not Harper's. LoLsidhuk likes this.10-27-13 06:20 AMLike 1 -
Sent from my XT890 using TapatalkSuperfly_FR and barnfoot like this.10-27-13 06:33 AMLike 2 - Since when is $9 a "cap"? The only thing stopping the price from going above that is that, still, the market doesn't think it's worth more.
If they did, the price would go above, and Prem's "offer" would simply fade into oblivion. It's not like the shareholders are committed to selling at that price... there's actually been no vote, there's not even an actual offer, and there's certainly enough shareholders to turn it down if the stock price were higher.10-27-13 08:18 AMLike 9 -
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- Hi Morgan!
*touches wood* - Assuming a partnership does happen for their hardware division: Would the company have to downsize much to cope with their new revenue model?
I'm guessing a partnership would be favourable. But can we really compare Nokia's revenue model to BlackBerry in its current situation?
Just trying to see how the market could react.
Umm, why are you touching your wood? Or are you touching Morgan's?
10-27-13 09:35 AMLike 11 - 10-27-13 09:44 AMLike 10
- Hi Morgan!
*touches wood* - Assuming a partnership does happen for their hardware division: Would the company have to downsize much to cope with their new revenue model?
I'm guessing a partnership would be favourable. But can we really compare Nokia's revenue model to BlackBerry in its current situation?
Just trying to see how the market could react.
The market hates risk, handsets are big, bulky and laden with risk. You just have to look at the infrastructure that BB carries in raw materials, handsets and manufacturing logistics to understand how much money will be pulled from this liability. When you strip out the risk, think $ 5.0 billion in obligations to BB. you have a company that would then trade at software multiples. That's what is happening to NOK, they have dumped their liability and the P/E Ratio is climbing to match investments in the "other" businesses model.
If we look at what BB did in Q2, they sold slightly more BB 07 phones, 4.08M in Q1 to 4.2M in Q2, these phones are carried in inventory, are predictable and likely sit on the books at $ 200/unit. Lenovo is probably going to make them for $ 100.00/ea and sell them to BB for $ 200/ea and BB is going to sell them for $ 280.00 or more, a nice clean marketing program and little risk there. It's in the BB 10 phones that we have risk and BB won't be carrying any of that going forward; other than inventory. Here again, they will likely hold them on the books at $ 280/ea but they won't have to plan all of the various stages of demand, that's up to Lenovo to absorb that risk.
So now they have a software sales/software development/hardware sales/maintenance business with a ton of cash, much lower costs and growth. We saw BES10.1 start to sell in Q2, they went from Q1 of $ 60M to Q2 of $ 80M and that's before the free 3-month trial offer (ended in late September) was completed. One would think the BES10.1 will only really begin to kick in during Q3 so we can expect to see much better numbers then. They sold at least 1.7M BB 10's in Q2, I think the number is closer to 2.7M but we won't know until we see another Q.
Remember, when BB 10 first launched, all of the analysts gave BBRY a P/E of 7 - 8 thinking they would show decent sales, now, they will give BBRY a 15 multiple on decent sales assuming they are looking at Enterprise going forward. BB's Enterprise business was plagued by Venezuela, for Q1 they backed out 2 M subs, they backed out more revs for Q2 and recognized only $ 25M in revenues (they continue to do business in Venezuela and will have over $ 100M in revs to add back in at a future date) which dropped that part of the business, on paper, by the % loss for the Q. At some point, this revenue will come back so it looks as though we will continue to see decent Enterprise numbers going forward, (at very high margins), when you add BES 10.1 growth to the declining Enterprise numbers. How many employees do you need to handle software development and sales/maintenance? I would think they will have another round of downsizing in the cards which will make them profitable again. This last drop of 4,500 employees cost them $ 300 M and it is likely they could reduce their workforce by at least another 2,500 to 3,000 as a software business. This is why I don't want to see them purchased nor does Mike L, he knows the assets will grow once they right size the business. They are really just following their 3 Phase plan to introduce the next generation of software along with a hardware component that runs smoothly with that the software while guiding the business model toward growth. There is no growth in Hardware, they know that, but they needed to develop phones to keep their fan base and introduce the BB 10.2 environment. They are completing Phase II now but the media and analysts have focused on hardware from day one. Everyone here knew they weren't so much about hardware but we didn't see the slow uptake in the Q10. That was a disappointment to me personally. Today, we are at the very beginning of a long overdue Enterprise refresh cycle, we have free phones and multiple ways to secure those phones. We are where we hoped to be back in the Spring. I wouldn't write them off just yet.
I don't see much wrong with this company once they reduce their exposure to hardware. BB 10.2 is a killer OS, I'm sure that BB 10.9 will be even more dazzling when Apple releases iOS 7.2, BlackBerry is ahead of the curve now on OS, they need to get voice and video out to the masses, BBM-X Plus, and leave something special for B 10 phones. They need to continue to develop their secure solution for all phones and take over other businesses like cars, appliances and air travel, etc.. with QNX. The P/E multiples for growth can be huge.10-27-13 10:20 AMLike 18 - We need Chris Umi to write another BBM valuation article.
BBM will be over 100M users likely within the next week, if not by Monday. Maybe we get to 150M by the end of the year. With Channels and Ads ....and Apps! this is monetized (anybody notice the 'Apps' tab in a BBM contact profile? if this a placeholder for future functionality?)
I would guesstimate that at a low 1.5B to 3B valuation. Call it 2B. Snapchat is looking to IPO at a 3-4B valuation. That is insane. Blackberry should put out the word they are spinning off BBM by Q1 and that will start chatter about valuations.
I see BBRY valued at cash + BBM. The rest is free. Can they not just agree to give Lenovo a super sweet deal and unload the handset division? 500M for hardware + OS lease for 10 years?10-27-13 11:05 AMLike 6 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorWe need Chris Umi to write another BBM valuation article.
BBM will be over 100M users likely within the next week, if not by Monday. Maybe we get to 150M by the end of the year. With Channels and Ads ....and Apps! this is monetized (anybody notice the 'Apps' tab in a BBM contact profile? if this a placeholder for future functionality?)
I would guesstimate that at a low 1.5B to 3B valuation. Call it 2B. Snapchat is looking to IPO at a 3-4B valuation. That is insane. Blackberry should put out the word they are spinning off BBM by Q1 and that will start chatter about valuations.
I see BBRY valued at cash + BBM. The rest is free. Can they not just agree to give Lenovo a super sweet deal and unload the handset division? 500M for hardware + OS lease for 10 years?
Strictly, it's not "BBM apps" but "BBM communication enabled apps".
Yet, this is a great way for apps developers to promote their work; just wondering how the cross-platform mechanism will be held (lead to BBWorld or apple store or Android/X market).
I've not tested other versions than native BB so I can't tell whether this tab is available in BBM-x (small x for "almost cross platform" lol).10-27-13 11:18 AMLike 2 - Oh, check this out SF...no toe either:
Attachment 214757
Posted from my gorgeous Z3010-27-13 11:41 AMLike 6 -
- [B]
I don't see much wrong with this company once they reduce their exposure to hardware. BB 10.2 is a killer OS, I'm sure that BB 10.9 will be even more dazzling when Apple releases iOS 7.2, BlackBerry is ahead of the curve now on OS, they need to get voice and video out to the masses, BBM-X Plus, and leave something special for B 10 phones. They need to continue to develop their secure solution for all phones and take over other businesses like cars, appliances and air travel, etc.. with QNX. The P/E multiples for growth can be huge.
The Z30 and 10.2 cement BlackBerry as the best handset. XBBM is good advertising and confidence boost for BYOD integration. It's interesting that the stock is near it's lowest point at the time the company is putting out its best products and becoming more lean.
It's time to focus on selling products and forget about selling the company!
Posted via CB1010-27-13 12:14 PMLike 11 - I agree that we are now at where we wanted to be in January.
The Z30 and 10.2 cement BlackBerry as the best handset. XBBM is good advertising and confidence boost for BYOD integration. It's interesting that the stock is near it's lowest point at the time the company is putting out its best products and becoming more lean.
It's time to focus on selling products and forget about selling the company!
Posted via CB1010-27-13 12:34 PMLike 10
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