[spiller]

Now it seems pretty clear except Goog or another PE there will be no more bidder.

BlackBerry Is Said to Warm to Idea of a Breakup - Bloomberg

As expected, It just does not make any sense for those listed name to make an offer for bbry except goog/samsung, but it seems Samsung is out of the picture, Samsung just does not want to make large deals, their largest deal(800M) failed badly before.

Seems to me this is a 'short' fake lead as the SP is starting to gain traction. Bloomberg has had nothing but BBRY bears to slag the company.

When the WSJ release another update citing "people with knowledge of the matter" then I might take it -- as the WSJ seems to have a good informant of late. Can anyone reference a similar Bloomberg update lately on BBRY that proved the 'sources' were correct?

Let's see if it ends up so "clear" in the end.

[Bacon Munchers]

Ok... let's clear this up. Google has been in the K-W area for quite some time now. This is also the tech area of Canada which is beginning to rival Silicon Valley.... The University of Waterloo competes directly with MIT for students.... One of the worlds most respected theoretical physics think tanks is in Waterloo. It is a valuable and strategic region to set up office. Since Google is already here, and the own Motorola, it just makes sense to expand their operations here. There is nothing about the move that has to do with the situation at BlackBerry.

Mine sounds more exciting.

[Bacon Munchers]

I agree it means something. I have noticed bottom feeders with deep pockets on the CDN exchange for several days now. The US is a little more difficult to spot because of the volume of transactions. My prediction is that Fairfax will not get Blackberry. There is too much information currently that suggests something else is happening. I'm calling it a buy at this price and will also suggest that buyers could stand to gain a fair profit within a relatively short time. I would put the probability of me being right at about 80%. We could see a trading halt as soon as tomorrow. Note: If the USA triggers a global financial meltdown, all bets are off.
Try not to sell at the first jump. I think Morgan was right several weeks back when he suggested that it's important to hold on and let it play out. Will Fairfax counter or will a third buyer hit the table(or the cow bell).

Good points.

I now look at this as a Fairfax 'head-fake' move to pull in would-be bidders. I just can't see Prem's group wanting to bid higher.

With the new cloud maneuver, I really see a fit for Cisco to walk in here.

If course, as we all know, if Google wants it, Google gets it. It may just cost them 17-18.

[Bacon Munchers]

Now it seems pretty clear except Goog or another PE there will be no more bidder.

BlackBerry Is Said to Warm to Idea of a Breakup - Bloomberg

As expected, It just does not make any sense for those listed name to make an offer for bbry except goog/samsung, but it seems Samsung is out of the picture, Samsung just does not want to make large deals, their largest deal(800M) failed badly before.

I believe that Samsung had interest, but it fizzled with the Canadian Securities red tape.

Nope, I am confident that this will go towards a common wealth player.

EDIT: I like Morgan's idea about Samsung making the hardware, and perhaps licensing, but I still hold my opinion against them grabbing anything that could compromise Common Wealth Countries security.
I'd prefer LG replacing Samsung here though. But that is only because a really don't like Samsung. Just my own beef.

[fin2007]

I would *think* that BlackBerry's patents, secure network (confirmed through exclusive contracts), potential for x-BBM (it works for some lucky iPhone users) would be attractive enough to consider a bid for the entire company. Especially if a direct competitor is interested in the same assets, no?

They'd get 2.6 billion in cash (excl. R&D grant, tax credit, and hopefully cash from the written-down inventory), buildings worth in excess of 1 billion (mostly in Canada, where Google and Samsung are looking to expand), BB10 as a Tizen or Android alternative, QNX potential, Paratek,...

They could write down the remaining inventory and close down the hardware unit without losing a penny. If that's what they're scared off...?

Posted via CB10

NO, I do not understand why it is so hard for people to understand that how the hell SAP/Cisco/Intel/IBM would buy BBRY's hardware business and its patents??? what is point? Are they going to turn to a patent trolling company to sue Apple/Google? Those patents means zero value to SAP/Cisco/IBM/Cisco, so does bbry's hardware.

For SAP/IBM/Cisco, the only value from BBRY is its BES server/security network/subscribe.
For Samsung, the only value from BBRY is its patent, and it is hard for Samsung to get the security network. Why you think people want BB10? it is only better for a BB fan, but for others.
For Google, it actually can absorb both with the right price.

[fin2007]

I believe that Samsung had interest, but it fizzled with the Canadian Securities red tape.

Nope, I am confident that this will go towards a common wealth player.

EDIT: I like Morgan's idea about Samsung making the hardware, and perhaps licensing, but I still hold my opinion against them grabbing anything that could compromise Common Wealth Countries security.
I'd prefer LG replacing Samsung here though. But that is only because a really don't like Samsung. Just my own beef.

It is not that you do not like something or not. Why would Samsung license BB10? is it superior than Andriod, do not tell me you believe that.
Samsung can get Andriod for free and what is the point to license another OS which is much less popular? Only a BB addictive would believe something like that. LG is way out of the picture if Samsung could not do something, LG does not earn any money from its phone business.

[fin2007]

I would *think* that BlackBerry's patents, secure network (confirmed through exclusive contracts), potential for x-BBM (it works for some lucky iPhone users) would be attractive enough to consider a bid for the entire company. Especially if a direct competitor is interested in the same assets, no?

They'd get 2.6 billion in cash (excl. R&D grant, tax credit, and hopefully cash from the written-down inventory), buildings worth in excess of 1 billion (mostly in Canada, where Google and Samsung are looking to expand), BB10 as a Tizen or Android alternative, QNX potential, Paratek,...

They could write down the remaining inventory and close down the hardware unit without losing a penny. If that's what they're scared off...?

Posted via CB10

Actually the sell in parts may be not a bad idea if you are a shareholder instead of a bb phone fan.

1. It is clear right now no other guy(except Google/cerberus which we am not sure) would make an bid for the whole co.

2. I would guess BBRY board/advisor do not like the $9 offer and think it underestimated BBRY value, or another possibility is they are afraid PW would low his offer. (Anyone with a brain can see PW could get finance, at worst he can use BBRY's own cash to get some bridge loan, all he really need is 1B cash from bank, he can just use BBRY's patents/BESServer as a warrant for the loan) .

So I would think BBRY board&advisor think the $9 offer is too low and try to go other way around:
1. 2.6B cash
2. BES/security network/subscribe for 2B or more, lets' the subscribe revenue to be 3B in the next 2 years and net profit for 1B, and BES server for
1B(4x of revenue), it is not a big risk for SAP to take it at 2B.
3. patents sell to Samsung/Google for 2B, 2B is really a bargain comparing to Nortel/Motorala/NOK patents value.
That is already 6.6B.

Checking the remaining value from BBRY 10Q, except the patents/cache, BBRY book is (12.5-2.6(cash)-3.5Bpatent)(net) - 4B = 2.5B.
900M are inventory, let's discount it by half 450M, and there is another 2.9B component supply obligation, which would cost another 400~500M to get rid of, and then to layoff most of the employees, let's suppose 50K each, that would cost another 500M, then there are other legal costs, lets's say another 500M, so the remain book value is 2.5B- 4*500= 500M. There is not much left.

But I believe BBRY could sell BB OS/QNX and design technology and distribution network for several hundred millions to Lenova or other Asian co, and there is 500M tax refund next Summery.
So overall, I would say the remaining of the company (except cash/patents/subscribe/BES) would still value at least 1B.

Overall, if they can sell the patents for 2B, subscribe/secure netowrk/BES for 2B, the company can easily fetch 7-8B, likely ~14 per share.

[sidhuk]

Rogers phones are down and can not make voice calls. However, BBM voice calls are working fine.

Visiting CB with Z30

[Bacon Munchers]

It is not that you do not like something or not. Why would Samsung license BB10?

> Is that what I said? Maybe my translator does not work as good as yours. I'll have to download a better app.

is it superior than Andriod, do not tell me you believe that.

> OK, I won't. I'll just think it.

Only a BB addictive would believe something like that...

> I'll remind you that you are in a CrackBerryian thread. The others are that way<<<.



Posted via CB10

[Superfly_FR]

What amazes me every day is the general propensity to find a simple answer to a complex situation.
I believe this is why narrowed minds can't figure who/if anyone would enter the bid.

My current thinking leads me here :

1. Fairfax offer is valid and backed with solid CAN$ from several funds
2. The company is going private and the committee role is to try to keep it as a whole
3. If BlackBerry want to stop to build their hardware by themselves, they don't have to sell the division. Basically, they just have to change their supply chain architecture (less jobs, less fixed costs) and contract an external provider. This is a natural answer to lower their operating costs risks (but, in case of success, this will lower their ASP margins too).
4. We must separate the capitalistic investment from partnerships. While partnership may be assorted with "entry" or "paid in advance" fees, they don't imply the partners will own a part of the company. (shortcut; remember the MSFT/AAPL rescue/equity partnership)
5. The deal in process is complex and mixes capitalistic moves, spinoffs (my take about BBM : move it appart to guarantee it is not linked to BBRY future), licensing and partnership. There will be extra structure(s), under a BlackBerry holding "umbrella".
6. M+8 is right : the less you hear about a potential bidder/partner, the most it may be the valid one.
7. Again and again : prepare to ear from Microsoft. SAP is a tight partner (even enlightened during PB launch with fanfare) and I won't be suprised (but delighted) to see them join the party. Cisco is already in the NOC and the "unique" outage was due to Juniper routers firmware update ...

Welcome to the [Blackberry] Enterprise 3.0

Take all this as nothing but an old man senior delirium if you wish.
But I pretend this is at least as valid than what we read nowadays in the press.

[the_sleuth]

WSJ reports samething as Bloomberg:

Will it be Buyout or Breakup for BlackBerry? - John Paczkowski - News - AllThingsD

So there might be some truth to the rumors of break up.

[_dimi_]

AllThingsD = WSJ?

Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

Bloomberg reports that BlackBerry�s overtures to Cisco, SAP, Samsung and Intel haven�t been well met. All four firms have turned up their noses at the idea of an outright acquisition, though some have expressed interest in portions of it, particularly its patent portfolio and enterprise network.

If BlackBerry was hoping to spark a bidding war with such stealth outreach, it�s looking like it may be out of luck. With so little interest in an outside bid for the company entire, the idea of selling it off BlackBerry for parts could fast become its most attractive option.

I'm now wondering what pejorative nickname will be given to Bloomberg now that they are "against' Blackberry. Dumbberg? Bloomtard? Doomburg?

[silversun10]

WSJ reports samething as Bloomberg:

Will it be Buyout or Breakup for BlackBerry? - John Paczkowski - News - AllThingsD

So there might be some truth to the rumors of break up.

there will be no serious bids until FF makes theirs a firm bid. until then potential bidders get some time to do some more DD and they get a chance to accumulate shares. still early days in the auction. you guys have to enter an Ebay auction and see how it works, see when the action takes place.

[Superfly_FR]

I'm now wondering what pejorative nickname will be given to Bloomberg now that they are "against' Blackberry. Dumbberg? Bloomtard? Doomburg?

From Bloomberg article, the very first lines.

BlackBerry Ltd. (BB) is more open to a breakup of the company amid concerns that Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH) may be unable to line up funding or partners for a $4.7 billion buyout, a person with knowledge of the matter said.

So, all the bellow is based on the assumption that FF won't raise the fundings.
This approach can be considered as correct. "More open" is not "struggling to break appart".
I just don't buy the #1 paragraph "IF".

[OMGitworks]

there will be no serious bids until FF makes theirs a firm bid. until then potential bidders get some time to do some more DD and they get a chance to accumulate shares. still early days in the auction. you guys have to enter an Ebay auction and see how it works, see when the action takes place.

I think you are misreading the situation. There will be very little extra time after the 4th. Ever see a listing pulled, auction ended early or an auction not be completed to the high bidder? It happens all the time. Normally, you would have wanted to see another offer very soon after the FF announcement. We didn't get that and really no firm indication that any other bidders will even surface. There is no natural taker for all of BBRY. Parts, yes, the entire thing, not really. You can certainly still have a bidding war here, though it seems less and less likely each passing day, but I don't think it is wise to sit back and wait until Nov 4th and expect nothing to happen until then. PW will announce he has the financing and they will put the deal together. If we get to the 4th without another serious bidder emerging, $9 is going to look really good. The LOI PR reads: Diligence is expected to be complete by November 4, 2013 (“Diligence Period”). The parties’ intention is to negotiate and execute a definitive transaction agreement by such date.

The LOI gives FF 3 very important rights that are probably limiting the pool. First is the 30 cent/share topping fee. The other is a 2 day right of first refusal on any competing offer. Lastly, BBRY has the right to negotiate with other bidders to for a consortium. All 3 together give FF a pretty sweet deal and lessens the chance of an independent bidder. The three taken together probably mean companies are much less interested in BBRY. They will invest all of the time only to be matched, or have to coop with FF, and then the 30c/share fee also hurts them.

Not saying it can't or won't happen only that I think the complacency is misplaced given the actual terms of the LOI and what they said in PR.

[greggebhardt]

Is there a time limit on Fairfax to put up or walk away?

I would think they would/could have pulled the finances together by now, if they could.

It does not look like the can.

[silversun10]

I think you are misreading the situation. There will be very little extra time after the 4th. Ever see a listing pulled, auction ended early or an auction not be completed to the high bidder? It happens all the time. Normally, you would have wanted to see another offer very soon after the FF announcement. We didn't get that and really no firm indication that any other bidders will even surface. There is no natural taker for all of BBRY. Parts, yes, the entire thing, not really. You can certainly still have a bidding war here, though it seems less and less likely each passing day, but I don't think it is wise to sit back and wait until Nov 4th and expect nothing to happen until then. PW will announce he has the financing and they will put the deal together. If we get to the 4th without another serious bidder emerging, $9 is going to look really good. The LOI PR reads: Diligence is expected to be complete by November 4, 2013 (“Diligence Period”). The parties’ intention is to negotiate and execute a definitive transaction agreement by such date.

The LOI gives FF 3 very important rights that are probably limiting the pool. First is the 30 cent/share topping fee. The other is a 2 day right of first refusal on any competing offer. Lastly, BBRY has the right to negotiate with other bidders to for a consortium. All 3 together give FF a pretty sweet deal and lessens the chance of an independent bidder. The three taken together probably mean companies are much less interested in BBRY. They will invest all of the time only to be matched, or have to coop with FF, and then the 30c/share fee also hurts them.

Not saying it can't or won't happen only that I think the complacency is misplaced given the actual terms of the LOI and what they said in PR.

Nov 4 th the fun only starts. That is not the end. When an agreement is reached, the paper work will get sent to the share holders for a vote and that procedure takes at least 4-6 weeks. And that provides all the time for competing bids. Every time another bid shows it will get extended by a couple of weeks.

[OMGitworks]

Nov 4th the fun only starts. That is not the end. When agreement is reached, the paper work will get sent to the share holders for a vote and that procedure takes at least 4-6 weeks. And that provides all the time for competing bids. Every time another bid shows it will get extended by a couple of weeks.

Perhaps, but guess what happens then. FF topping fee goes to 50c a share plus whatever else FF manages to get in the definitive agreement. If he gets what he had in the LOI, competing bids will be limited. I hope a bidding war does start, it's just that FF seems to have the upper hand again and PW is not a fool. We shall see, it should be very interesting.

[Shanerredflag]

I'm now wondering what pejorative nickname will be given to Bloomberg now that they are "against' Blackberry. Dumbberg? Bloomtard? Doomburg?

I'm picking number one as no facts or supporting evidence provided....why you looking for a fight so early champ?

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

Perhaps, but guess what happens then. FF topping fee goes to 50c a share plus whatever else FF manages to get in the definitive agreement. If he gets what he had in the LOI, competing bids will be limited. I hope a bidding war does start, it's just that FF seems to have the upper hand again and PW is not a fool. We shall see, it should be very interesting.

if the deal is worth it, nobody will worry about the break fee. right Prem is no fool and he can time or coordinate making his deal official depending on how negotiations develop. so, take out the pop corn and watch this develop. no rush.

[BB Fightclub]

But it's still my money!
a Quote:
The breakup fee rises to 50 cents a share, or about $262
million, if the smartphone maker and Fairfax sign a definitive
transaction. That higher fee is about 5.6 percent of the deal
value, above the average termination fee of 3.5 percent for
U.S.-based targets in 2012, according to a June report by
investment banking firm Houlihan Lokey.

“It’s highly unusual that a seller gives a breakup fee to
a buyer with no committed financing,”

[fin2007]

Perhaps, but guess what happens then. FF topping fee goes to 50c a share plus whatever else FF manages to get in the definitive agreement. If he gets what he had in the LOI, competing bids will be limited. I hope a bidding war does start, it's just that FF seems to have the upper hand again and PW is not a fool. We shall see, it should be very interesting.

only delusional fans would think there will be a bidding war after Nov.4

It is clear enough now that except Google nobody else is interested in making a full bid.

The outcome is clear now: either bbry could sell its valuable parts, or PW will take it private at $9.(Those saying he could not get finance are also delusional).

[Komoto]

Fin, what are you basing your thoughts on?

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

Fin, what are you basing your thoughts on?

Posted via CB10

My own analysis, and it is matching with those reports from bloogber/router, which are almost never wrong.
Stop being a fan first, just to be objective.

Why would someone think SAP/Cisco/IBM/Intel would make full bid? Anyone sayingng that is just so delusional.
I said long time ago only Samsung/Google/MSFT has synergy/money to make a full bid, now Samsung/MSFT are clearly out of picture.
Even for google, it does not really need bbry's BBOS/hardware, but they are cheap anyway. Why google wants to pay $6B for the whole company instead of 1.5-2.5B for bbry's patents.