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- https://yourlogicalfallacyis.com/appeal-to-authority
Argument from authority. This fallacy is further undermined when the authority has been proven to be wrong on the subject at hand. To wit, Prem is responsible for Fairfax buying and eventually owning 10% one of the worst performing, spectacularly falling , and troubled companies in recent times.
Posted via CB1010-05-13 03:44 PMLike 7 -
- LoL, The current President and Ceo of Rogers Alan D. Horn is a member of the board at Fairfax financial?
it gets better and better.
Fairfax - Corporate - Board of Directors
Then when you have taken BBRY private we can announce the sweetheart deal that we made as part of this manipulation and we will carry the Z30 then.Last edited by bungaboy; 10-05-13 at 04:15 PM.
10-05-13 03:58 PMLike 6 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorOh, I believe the fat lady is near now .
I'm really pleased to read SAP in the line... would be a great partner.
Now ... since I have 2 lined form my fav 3 list, let me dare once again: count MSFT in (speculative and personal view). Will be interesting Monday
Exhausted after 12h+ of painting... time for my back to have a break and me to visit Morpheus !
Good nite all, I love the news !
OT that's a painted White day !
Posted via CB1010-05-13 04:41 PMLike 6 - M+8
I thinking of buying some Jan 2014 calls. What would be your preference - may $9 or $10. Maybe a different expiration date?
I would prefer not to buy the stock to limit my at-risk capital.10-05-13 05:18 PMLike 0 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorThat's really a beautiful day.
Hope I'll get it Monday...
Confident my 1K avg $10.35 will pay it full... , at least the premium over cost
Posted via CB10Randeman likes this.10-05-13 05:20 PMLike 1 - Oh, I believe the fat lady is near now .
I'm really pleased to read SAP in the line... would be a great partner.
Now ... since I have 2 lined form my fav 3 list, let me dare once again: count MSFT in (speculative and personal view). Will be interesting Monday
Exhausted after 12h+ of painting... time for my back to have a break and me to visit Morpheus !
Good nite all, I love the news !
OT that's a painted White day !
Posted via CB10
Posted via CB10Superfly_FR likes this.10-05-13 09:46 PMLike 1 -
Posted via CB10Randeman likes this.10-06-13 02:24 AMLike 1 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorAnyone wondering if the "massive cash use for promotion" announced by Heins during former former ER was somehow including the inventory write down ?
I believe we should all start (or continue) to understand BOD people are not chickens of the year and their mouth shut is significant of a long planned strategy.
If I was an analyst, that's where I'll dig: why do they keep so silent and even succeed in a 99% blackout (no real leaks about the strategy behind the scenes) .
I believe the committee is nothing but the crisis BOD few with white card and Strong NDA. Nothing will leak until decided...
It's not a fat lady that will sing, but a chorale....
Posted via CB1010-06-13 02:41 AMLike 2 -
I believe we should all start (or continue) to understand BOD people are not chickens of the year and their mouth shut is significant of a long planned strategy.
If I was an analyst, that's where I'll dig: why do they keep so silent and even succeed in a 99% blackout (no real leaks about the strategy behind the scenes) .
I believe the committee is nothing but the crisis BOD few with white card and Strong NDA. Nothing will leak until decided...
It's not a fat lady that will sing, but a chorale....anon(4086547) likes this.10-06-13 04:28 AMLike 1 - Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorThis idea was often advanced when HP wrote down the touchpad, that it was a cunning marketing plan - it's a bit.. well odd?
Panic, paralysis? The usual behaviours we see when an organisation is going down? Nothing so far has been atypical in that regard.
I'm a bit baffled how anyone can hold to "it's all a cunning plan!" - it's just straightforward panic as carrier support collapses, hardware sales collapses (BB7) or don't ramp (BB10) the BOD run for the exits. Now someone *else* might turn the company around but the current CEO and BOD don't have a cunning plan or if they do they seem unable to implement it.
Posted via CB10morganplus8 likes this.10-06-13 06:33 AMLike 1 -
sparkaction
Nice! Those Jan $ 9.00 Strike BBRY's are currently $ .32/option. I would be a buyer of those ones and might just pick some up on Monday if the stock drops a bit due to the "poor shareholder" who is suing because BlackBerry told some of us they liked all of the new products they were spending billions on. Companies aren't allowed to like any of their new developments, I hope this guy wins hundreds of dollars over the next 3 years.
I will let you buy some before I step in because it was your idea!sparkaction likes this.10-06-13 08:48 AMLike 1 - sparkaction
Nice! Those Jan $ 9.00 Strike BBRY's are currently $ .32/option. I would be a buyer of those ones and might just pick some up on Monday if the stock drops a bit due to the "poor shareholder" who is suing because BlackBerry told some of us they liked all of the new products they were spending billions on. Companies aren't allowed to like any of their new developments, I hope this guy wins hundreds of dollars over the next 3 years.
I will let you buy some before I step in because it was your idea!
I'm curious on why you may not be interested in the $10 calls? If the LOI firms up at $9 then both the $9 and the $10 are worthless. Both are in-the-money only if a biding war ensures. Yet if a biding war does not occur the i'm out only $130 vs $310 per contract. Your thoughts?10-06-13 09:31 AMLike 0 - M+8
I'm curious on why you may not be interested in the $10 calls? If the LOI firms up at $9 then both the $9 and the $10 are worthless. Both are in-the-money only if a biding war ensures. Yet if a biding war does not occur the i'm out only $130 vs $310 per contract. Your thoughts?
For instance, the most hated part of BlackBerry is clearly their handsets, nobody likes them, wants them or would pay for them. So using that theory no one would want to own a product that currently has sales at 5.9 million units as per Q2. Using some very low sales numbers, I see 1.5 million BB 10's at $ 400/unit wholesale (or direct sales) and 3.0 million BB 07's at $ 225 each making the quarterly revenue equal to $ 1.275 Billion for hardware alone and these are conservative numbers. Who wouldn't want to own a product that sells at over $ 5.0 billion plus per year and profitable at scale? Many analysts conservatively value sales at 1 X revenue and so their handset business should be worth at least 50% of that amount alone. That's their worst asset .... $ 2.5 billion! They need to launch BBM-X and BB 10.2 NOW to secure those sales numbers.
I hear some crazy ideas of what they could do with the parts, and who would be interested in them. BlackBerry will package the parts to allow the company to move on, they won't cripple any part of the business model in order to make a deal.
You will see:
Hardware risk farmed out to Samsung or Lenovo with a royalty payment to them for BlackBerry branding. If Samsung or Lenovo want the handset business it will be packaged with a licensing agreement on patents, not a sale. BlackBerry won't sell off the patents and lease back the same in order to continue to sell BB phones. No one will get the patents without a survival plan for everything else that is BlackBerry. That's why I think that the final price is much higher, they have too many options of their own here. $ 9.00/shr is way too weak of a number for those assets.10-06-13 11:33 AMLike 11 - M8, more BlackBerry delay the transaction more the damage to all. I think BlackBerry wants to sell it November. At least deal done. Implementing or date to close it be later on like Nokia but all deal nums should be finalized by mid Nov in my view unless bidding war really hits up.
Posted via CB1010-06-13 11:42 AMLike 0 - M8, more BlackBerry delay the transaction more the damage to all. I think BlackBerry wants to sell it November. At least deal done. Implementing or date to close it be later on like Nokia but all deal nums should be finalized by mid Nov in my view unless bidding war really hits up.
Posted via CB1010-06-13 12:09 PMLike 10 - Prem is smart guy, he will be winner either way no matter what happens with BB. As of today he is losing money on BlackBerry but with his current offer if he gets BlackBerry at 9 then he knows he can make good money of it. If bidding war drives prices to higher his 10% will be lose less plus 150 million as break up fees. So he can reduce losses or almost lose nothing with higher bids, make even more if be gets BlackBerry At 9. Look what happened to not tell patents auction. Started with 2 billion. Ended up with 4.5
Posted via CB1010-06-13 12:30 PMLike 5 - For instance, the most hated part of BlackBerry is clearly their handsets, nobody likes them, wants them or would pay for them. So using that theory no one would want to own a product that currently has sales at 5.9 million units as per Q2. Using some very low sales numbers, I see 1.5 million BB 10's at $ 400/unit wholesale (or direct sales) and 3.0 million BB 07's at $ 225 each making the quarterly revenue equal to $ 1.275 Billion for hardware alone and these are conservative numbers. Who wouldn't want to own a product that sells at over $ 5.0 billion plus per year and profitable at scale? Many analysts conservatively value sales at 1 X revenue and so their handset business should be worth at least 50% of that amount alone. That's their worst asset .... $ 2.5 billion! They need to launch BBM-X and BB 10.2 NOW to secure those sales numbers.
There are a lot of negative feedback loops kicking in already:
- Lower volume means higher component costs which means more expensive handsets.
- More expensive handsets means lower volume of sales.
- Lower volume of sales means less developer interest, less mind share and less carrier support.
- Lower sales means lower volume means higher component costs which means more expensive handsets.
Its basically a death spiral.10-06-13 12:40 PMLike 0 - "I really dont think you can annualize current handset revenue. Not when it is set to to hit $0 in 6 quarters, and thats conservative."
you can't predict the handsets, but you can say it is $0 in 6 quarters?
if you can't predict it, you sure as heck can't say it will be $0 in 6 quarters.10-06-13 12:55 PMLike 5 - Prem is smart guy, he will be winner either way no matter what happens with BB. As of today he is losing money on BlackBerry but with his current offer if he gets BlackBerry at 9 then he knows he can make good money of it. If bidding war drives prices to higher his 10% will be lose less plus 150 million as break up fees. So he can reduce losses or almost lose nothing with higher bids, make even more if be gets BlackBerry At 9. Look what happened to not tell patents auction. Started with 2 billion. Ended up with 4.5
Posted via CB1010-06-13 12:55 PMLike 6 - 10-06-13 01:12 PMLike 0
-
IOS could have been released. they could not blame on IOS because apple controls their downloadable files. I am gonna make every decision based on that the company is being run by crooks (which is sad). they are too stupid to be true.
at this point.
1. I like blackberry technology.
2. I need to protect my investment.
3. Management is crook and is out there to screw shareholders.
4. Media is against it.
5. Good assets.
6. No debt.
7. still cash on hand.
8. with prem's offer on the table, the time clock has started.
if I look at the above, I think there will be opportunities to get out of this mess.10-06-13 01:26 PMLike 4 - 10-06-13 01:28 PMLike 4
- Superfly_FRRetired ModeratorTime for a friendly reminder: stay on argumentation, do not shoot the guy(s). OK until now, keep it alike gang !
Posted via CB1010-06-13 03:03 PMLike 0 - If BlackBerry can get xbbm out within next 2 weeks that alone worth $1-2 . Nothing wrong with bbm.
It is on hold either due to monetary reason (bid+sp price) OR poor infrastructure capacity planning on NOC Side that could not keep up with extra load. It is very easy to block non-cerified or buggy version of software, just by having access control setup that can take no more than a day to set that up.
If msft, Google seriously looking at BlackBerry than bbm4all must out now to show the value.
Posted via CB1010-06-13 05:08 PMLike 4
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