[kevxn]

How can you run a smartphone platform that needs more than a year to reach the number of phones that Apple sold on launch weekend? I'm sure everyone here is tired of the comparison but it's ridiculous to think that a platform can catch up with these kinds of sales while trying to maintain a worldwide presence. You need to have enough volume to spread the R&D costs over in order to keep up with the competition.

That is why BlackBerry has already realized that it can not do itself alone and decided to sell itself.

Posted via CB10

[heymaggie]

If we assume Cerberus is truly looking at doing DD on bbry then is it true than bbry must worth more than $9 per share? I base my statement that if it was worth only say $9.50 or less after fees then the hedge fund would not be "sniffing"around.

They would be sniffing around if they think that BBRY might be worth more than $9. However, just because they think they can make more than $9 per share doesn't mean they will pay that. In fact, they probably want to pay a lot less than that. Also, the market seems to think that Prem's $9 offer is worth $7.50 (the SP before Cerberus). So, anyone who offers $9 is already paying a 20% premium which isn't bad for a sinking ship.

[kevxn]

The two founders of Google are very smart guys and I believe they may find something extremely valuable of BlackBerry technology.

If there will be any technology company bidding for BlackBerry, it must be Google.

Posted via CB10

[sparkaction]

They would be sniffing around if they think that BBRY might be worth more than $9. However, just because they think they can make more than $9 per share doesn't mean they will pay that. In fact, they probably want to pay a lot less than that. Also, the market seems to think that Prem's $9 offer is worth $7.50 (the SP before Cerberus). So, anyone who offers $9 is already paying a 20% premium which isn't bad for a sinking ship.

FF has a tentative offer of $9 on the table. If Cerberus hasn't done a back of a napkin calculation that warrants a bid greater than $9 I really can't see why they would be wasting professional fees to conduct a more extensive review.

[Fuzzballz]

If Cerberus hasn't done a back of a napkin calculation that warrants a bid greater than $9 I really can't see why they would be wasting professional fees to conduct a more extensive review.

The problem is that BBRY is in such a convoluted state right now that I don't think meaningful back-of-napkin calculations are even possible. You're seeing valuations running from $5 a share to $15.

[the_sleuth]

BBRY's valuation is the million dollar question for the past few months. The longs will tell you north of $10 to $16. The shorts think its worth $5 to $7. The price action of the stock suggests $8. I have read many reports of BlackBerry's valuation and the analysis is all over the place. So my guess is as good as anyone's here.

My gut tells me there is value in BBRY's assets but it appears no one wants to pay a premium for a distressed public company. Everyone wants to profit from BBRY's pain-- shorts, longs, and corporate raiders.

[peter9477]

Yes, heymaggie, it's true. No product or company has ever caught up with another product or company which initially outsold it.

Also, no product or company has ever succeeded on its own merits in a marketplace where other products from other companies were consistently outselling it.

It doesn't take a genius to see that these things are true.

[fin2007]

BBRY's valuation is the million dollar question for the past few months. The longs will tell you north of $10 to $16. The shorts think its worth $5 to $7. The price action of the stock suggests $8. I have read many reports of BlackBerry's valuation and the analysis is all over the place. So my guess is as good as anyone's here.

My gut tells me there is value in BBRY's assets but it appears no one wants to pay a premium for a distressed public company. Everyone wants to profit from BBRY's pain-- shorts, longs, and corporate raiders.

No matter which PE firm buys BBRY, bbry has to be broken up and sold in piece.The key is how much the patents the new owner could sell.

Basically right now excluding the patents, BBRY's book value is just 5B, add 500M value for BES server, 1B value for the subscriber/security network, that is about 6.5B, but 900M are inventories and the 4500Employee/CxOs layoff could cost another 500M.

The true book value is about 5-6Billion at most except the patents.

So in the end it really depends on how the PE firm values bbry's patents. If the PE firm truly believe they can sell the patents in 3B plus, then someone would make a higher offer. If the PE firms only value the patents in 1B, then it do not make much business sense for a higher offer.

[sidhuk]

This thread is just crawling. Trolls have killed the spirit of this thread. This thread wasn't only about blackberry. It was about blackberry and socializing during hours and after hours. It really came alive after hours. But trolls hated that essence. Just read it wrong and now just destroyed it. Right now I been JDeed and speaking my mind. Trolls, you just don't and never will get it. Cause that not your nature. You never made it in your life That's why you don't know how to relax and there is lot more to life than just blackberry. Cause people who made it, they know the value of life and happiness. And money has very little to do with it God bless you.
Good night Gang.

[Superfly_FR]

How can you run a smartphone platform that needs more than a year to reach the number of phones that Apple sold on launch weekend? I'm sure everyone here is tired of the comparison but it's ridiculous to think that a platform can catch up with these kinds of sales while trying to maintain a worldwide presence. You need to have enough volume to spread the R&D costs over in order to keep up with the competition.

Personal take: it he's never been advertised as a frontal opponent to the duopoly before a 3-5 year period. The goal WA #3ish position.

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

Reported at Howard Forums that the Blackberry Z30 launches Oct 15, $699.95 off contract with BELL Canada!

[Chris2J]

Was shocked as I saw Sp-drop this morning.
All I can say is that I am absoluetly happy with the Z10.
Kind of happy I didn't buy it in march otherwise I would have lost a lot more cash

Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

Was shocked as I saw Sp-drop this morning.
All I can say is that I am absoluetly happy with the Z10.
Kind of happy I didn't buy it in march otherwise I would have lost a lot more cash

Posted via CB10

I love my Z10 too. It is too bad that it didn't sell well. I still don't understand why. I have owned phones from Motorola, Apple, and BlackBerry, but never Samsung or other brands that tend to copy and flood the market. Nothing wrong with that and it gives some people opportunities to own a phone that was out of their price range, but it also kills the companies that invented the technology.

BlackBerry an inventor and innovator of smartphone is selling at a tiny fraction of a copier Samsung S4. It's just personal preference, but I will continue to support inventive and innovative people and companies.

Posted via CB10

[m0de25]

Reason why BBRY is seeing a slight dip this morning?


Bernstein whipsawed; cuts BlackBerry to Sell � 7:48 AM

"Our detailed analysis of the recent filing of Blackberry (BBRY) reveals a cash position far worse than we modeled," writes Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, downgrading the stock to Sell with a $4.50 price target. "We believe BlackBerry is likely to burn close to $2B in the next 6 quarters on a standalone basis, leading the company into material liquidity problems." Any floor valuation on the company is "irrelevant," he continues, and the Fairfax bid has almost no chance to secure financing. Only a "remotely possible" strategic acquisition keeps the price target from being $0. Whipsaw city: Ferragu upgraded BlackBerry on Monday. Shares -2% premarket to $7.80.

[_dimi_]

I wish we could get Morgan's analysis out on Yahoo Finance. Or have a live debate on Bloomberg between the analysts at Bernstein and Morgan. Now that would be entertainment

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

Reason why BBRY is seeing a slight dip this morning?


Bernstein whipsawed; cuts BlackBerry to Sell • 7:48 AM

"Our detailed analysis of the recent filing of Blackberry (BBRY) reveals a cash position far worse than we modeled," writes Bernstein's Pierre Ferragu, downgrading the stock to Sell with a $4.50 price target. "We believe BlackBerry is likely to burn close to $2B in the next 6 quarters on a standalone basis, leading the company into material liquidity problems." Any floor valuation on the company is "irrelevant," he continues, and the Fairfax bid has almost no chance to secure financing. Only a "remotely possible" strategic acquisition keeps the price target from being $0. Whipsaw city: Ferragu upgraded BlackBerry on Monday. Shares -2% premarket to $7.80.

what counts now is bids from FF and Cerberus.
analyst opinions are meaningless and potential bidders get more info than the analysts.
so, the analysts can now limit themselves to eating pop corn and watch the show unfold, like the rest of us.

[OMGitworks]

I wish we could get Morgan's analysis out on Yahoo Finance. Or have a live debate on Bloomberg between the analysts at Bernstein and Morgan. Now that would be entertainment

Posted via CB10

That WOULD be interesting. The different viewpoints deserve equal exposure. Unfortunately, I think nobody really knows what will happen. We are 1 announcement away from going to 15 or 6 or anywhere else for that matter. It's a total crapshoot. I do think if BBRY can't get a deal done, they will be gone within 2-3 years. Sorry to be pessimistic, but they haven't really done a single thing right in years and no sign they actually get it now. Since the PB with no native e-mail (DUH!!!), which I own, it has been misstep after misstep. The Super Bowl Ad, AK, no Netflix or Instagram, right up thru the recent xBBM launch, they just can't seem to get it right. I am afraid the consumer and many businesses have just written BBRY off and won't invest anymore in their products. Just MHO and it DOESN'T mean you can't make money with BBRY at this point, I just think any upside and future for BBRY has to come from a buyout. GLTA.

[morganplus8]

I wish we could get Morgan's analysis out on Yahoo Finance. Or have a live debate on Bloomberg between the analysts at Bernstein and Morgan. Now that would be entertainment

Posted via CB10

_dimi_ ?????

I am so sorry, I didn't read that MD & A report the right way up. They are going to burn through $ 2.0 billion over 6 quarters, it's all in there. You just have to look at what products they will be offering by 2015 to know that those combinations are all failures.

No one will be buying a Z60/Q60 Nitro, look at the specs on that phone, only 8 megs of ram, expandable screen size, Jelly Bean 4.5, 4.8, 5.2, 6.8, then there's their proprietary "all band" antenna that works in mines 3 miles under the ocean or the earth. Their patent on extending battery life to 14 days of video is surely going to flop too. We know they can't partner up with any of the big players because their patents are only worth $ 1.00 now and all of the land and buildings they bought over the past 20 years has dropped by 90% in value today, everyone knows those old assets aren't worth anything today. Then there's the BBM-X launch failure, the BB 12.4 OS, the ability to load other OS platforms on the same phone and the US governments' stealing of their ECC patents for yet, another $ 1.00.

One thing they missed is that BlackBerry is scheduled to fire another 4,500 employees in Q4 and yet another 5,000 in Q1 of next year. With all of these problems who wouldn't think that BB can't last 6 more quarters? I bet the stock falls to 52 week lows today and rightfully it should.

[Shanerredflag]

Why the change of heart M8?

Posted via CB10

[peter9477]

Speaking of the MD&A, one thing that surprised me was reading that they did NOT in fact change the way revenue was recognized.

I found it interesting that the revenue recognition policy is so nuanced. Makes it hard to do legitimate and useful comparisons between quarters, if you don't take into account all those conditions.

By the way, about that list of predictions that many of you got, uh, suckered into contributing numbers to: was that supposed to be based on sell-through? I don't remembering seeing any constraint on it, but I would have thought it was supposed to be based on the same "mode" of revenue recognition that previous quarters' predictions or results had been based on, which wasn't generally sell-through. Did all of you actually make your prediction for the "sell-through" numbers? If not, I don't suppose that list turned out to be particularly useful in any capacity.

[peter9477]

Why the change of heart M8?

He's finally seen the light, as the wise members of this forum have been trying to get him to do for months now.

I guess that means this thread is over! To all the trolls and haters, I'll hold the door for you on your way out. Thanks for coming out, it was a great party while it lasted.

Oh, just leave those bottles... I'll clean them up after you're gone.

[morganplus8]

Why the change of heart M8?

Posted via CB10

Well, have you ever read anything so stupid? It's like saying that you, Shanerredflag, will be bankrupt in 2015 because of the future choices you will make, choices we aren't familiar with yet, but changes that will wipe you out. You do know that buying up real estate in a city that has grown over the past 20 years is likely to have at least held it Book Value right? I mean, if they can tap some of those hard assets and fire more people they could last for 7 more years and still operate as dumb as they have been. The whole media thing is a joke now, giving a target on Monday of $ 9.00 and pulling it on Thursday because of something they saw in that report. I see $ 700 million in marketing that I don't think they will be repeating in the next quarter, with the funds they save there, they can "retire" 4.500 staff at no cost to cash. Then there is the warehouse full of handsets that will be running BB 10.2 this month, those are free and off the books now. They did sell enough BB 10's to cover the 300,000 phones they didn't sell in Q4/2012, the BB 10 phones they didn't sell in Q1, they actually sold more BB 10's in Q2 than they did in previous quarters, some people call that "growth". Heck, even their BB 07's grew in sales during Q2 versus Q1. These analysts are too stupid to be true.

Now we learn the Prem has submitted his "amended proposal" this morning. He is going to buy the company for $ 9.00 and the only thing Mike L can do to save his company and his 27 million shares is to arrange to buy it at a higher price. For some reason, he and Prem aren't working together and that reason is because Prem wants to finance the whole deal and walk away with 30% ownership of the new company. He feels he can finance the whole thing and not spend any of his own money because the assets and balance sheet speak for themselves! Mike L wouldn't want his shares to be diluted by Prem's 30% ownership so he has to come up with something to counter Prem. We are far from over on the bidding process here. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

[fin2007]

the amount committed to pay suppliers had fallen steeply, to $2.9-billion from $5.2-billion in the previous quarter,

This is really a good news for a potential buyers.
Reduce 2.3B obligation in one quarter while not hurting their book too much
Fairfax submits draft BlackBerry offer as spectre of rival bid looms - The Globe and Mail

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

_dimi_ ?????

I am so sorry, I didn't read that MD & A report the right way up. They are going to burn through $ 2.0 billion over 6 quarters, it's all in there. You just have to look at what products they will be offering by 2015 to know that those combinations are all failures.

No one will be buying a Z60/Q60 Nitro, look at the specs on that phone, only 8 megs of ram, expandable screen size, Jelly Bean 4.5, 4.8, 5.2, 6.8, then there's their proprietary "all band" antenna that works in mines 3 miles under the ocean or the earth. Their patent on extending battery life to 14 days of video is surely going to flop too. We know they can't partner up with any of the big players because their patents are only worth $ 1.00 now and all of the land and buildings they bought over the past 20 years has dropped by 90% in value today, everyone knows those old assets aren't worth anything today. Then there's the BBM-X launch failure, the BB 12.4 OS, the ability to load other OS platforms on the same phone and the US governments' stealing of their ECC patents for yet, another $ 1.00.

One thing they missed is that BlackBerry is scheduled to fire another 4,500 employees in Q4 and yet another 5,000 in Q1 of next year. With all of these problems who wouldn't think that BB can't last 6 more quarters? I bet the stock falls to 52 week lows today and rightfully it should.

Dreaming it, doesn't make it real.

Thor and others have talked a lot about the "future" and how the see technology evolving and what role they hope BlackBerry will accomplish. The problem is in they are never able to DELIVER! STORM, PlayBook, BB10, BBMx.... any of these should have been an opportunity to return BB to relevance, but they have failed over and over and over. And it isn't just one division of the company that is the main culprit, it's the whole ideology of the company from marketing, hardware specifications, software implementation, app development, public relations..... What's it been three years now that we saw some previews from TAT on what the new BB platform would look like? Those "demos" blew us all away and had us so HYPED about the new platform... then we got the PlayBook and we wondered what happened. But we figured it was only another six or eight months until the release of the devices (and what we now call BB10) so that was fine. The six months later they announced a delay, then another delay.... And we still don't have anything that comes close to those "demos".

[anon(4086547)]

the amount committed to pay suppliers had fallen steeply, to $2.9-billion from $5.2-billion in the previous quarter,

This is really a good news for a potential buyers.
Reduce 2.3B obligation in one quarter while not hurting their book too much
Fairfax submits draft BlackBerry offer as spectre of rival bid looms - The Globe and Mail

Link:

Fairfax submits draft BlackBerry offer as spectre of rival bid looms - The Globe and Mail