[abouthsu]

deleted post -pk

I don't get why you and a few others constantly target at M8 as if this is his fault. heck sounds like you lost money like everyone else did and if u didn't i'm happy for you. while I appreciate opinions from both side but this has to stop. I know a lot of us appreciated what Morgan has done for the thread and us individually. He is ONLY providing his opinions, right or wrong I don't see how this has anything to do with him or give u the right to target someone. I'm not sure which part of *don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose & we are fully responsible for the decisions we make in life* that isn't clear but I think you at times do make some interesting counter argument but these kind of crap is what we don't need here. Thanks

[spiller]

I don't get why you and a few others constantly target at M8 as if this is his fault. heck sounds like you lost money like everyone else did and if u didn't i'm happy for you. while I appreciate opinions from both side but this has to stop. I know a lot of us appreciated what Morgan has done for the thread and us individually. He is ONLY providing his opinions, right or wrong I don't see how this has anything to do with him or give u the right to target someone. I'm not sure which part of *don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose & we are fully responsible for the decisions we make in life* that isn't clear but I think you at times do make some interesting counter argument but these kind of crap is what we don't need here. Thanks

Yep. I think an opinion more along "I see Fairfax consortium not putting forth a financed back bid and the stock going to ..." $6...or $5 ...or whatever. Everyone here is choosing to go long or short on their own...

[danprown]

Has there been any talk of winding up the corporation. In Ontario, any shareholder or creditor can apply if they feel the conduct of the corporation is prejudicial to their interests. I know Ontario is one of the jurisdictions with pretty broad "opression remedy" provisions protecting shareholders.

If the value of the assets (assuming we factor in the cost of shutting down the hardware business) is greater than $9 per share, then how is it that it is not opressive to minority shareholders to sell the corp at $9, when in a wind-up, a liquidator is likely to fetch a greater return if everything is chopped up and sold.

When are TH or the Board going to explain all that?

[danprown]

I think it will be disasterous for the shareholders if if PW needs to use up BBRY's cash to support a bridge loan. This means essentially that BBRY kept all that cash in the bank not to promote or work on BB10, not to promote or work on BES or acquire a competitor, not to work on or promote BBM, but to help a corporate raider (albeit a friendly one) take the company private from the shareholders!

Seems they are taunting Prem into coming back with a lower bid.

I looked at the puts and unless the stock crashes below $6 it is hard to see the risk/return value. Even if the bid falls through I see the stock bottoming at $6. Too many other players would have to come knocking with a $7 bid pretty quickly.

I hope Prem holds his integrity and takes the bridge loan to make this happen at $9. Or puts more Fairfax coin into the bid.

Prem should finalize the bid ASAP to get this negativity out of the media - nobody will buy phones until it is bought and Prem states blackberry will continue running, and selling phones, just as a smaller company. Time to come back with a firm bid with financing within the next week.

[Kid Vibe]

When are TH or the Board going to explain all that?

TH has not explained much for a long time...

[greggebhardt]

I don't get why you and a few others constantly target at M8 as if this is his fault. heck sounds like you lost money like everyone else did and if u didn't i'm happy for you. while I appreciate opinions from both side but this has to stop. I know a lot of us appreciated what Morgan has done for the thread and us individually. He is ONLY providing his opinions, right or wrong I don't see how this has anything to do with him or give u the right to target someone. I'm not sure which part of *don't gamble with what you can't afford to lose & we are fully responsible for the decisions we make in life* that isn't clear but I think you at times do make some interesting counter argument but these kind of crap is what we don't need here. Thanks

Sorry but I will continue to state my side of the story, you know where the ignore button is.

There are some who still might believe.

AND I do not constantly target M8 so please keep your story straight and do not add to this mess!

[JLagoon]

Well, guys, the ascending triangle turned into a descending triangle, and the SP completed its formation today by breaking the $7.86 as the bottom.

[johnyblaze]

p. 10

"During the second quarter of fiscal 2014, approximately 5.9 million BlackBerry smartphones were sold through to end customers, which included shipments made prior to the second quarter of fiscal 2014 and which reduced the Company�s inventory in channel. Of the devices that sold through to end customers in the second quarter of fiscal 2014, approximately 4.2 million were BlackBerry 7 devices."

I see, what do they mean by this bit then?

The number of BlackBerry handheld devices recognized decreased by approximately 3.7 million, or 50.0%, to approximately 3.7 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2014, compared to approximately 7.4 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2013. Most of the devices recognized in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 were BlackBerry 7 devices, in part because the Company deferred revenues related to BlackBerry 10 smartphones shipped in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 as they did not meet the revenue recognition criteria that the price be fixed or determinable. See �Critical Accounting Estimates - Revenue Recognition�.

Do they mean some of the phones sold through to customers have not been recognized? So what is that, Returns maybe?

[abouthsu]

Sorry but I will continue to state my side of the story, you know where the ignore button is.

There are some who still might believe.

AND I do not constantly target M8 so please keep your story straight and do not add to this mess!

You are entitle to your own opinion and you're right where you might not be *constantly* target others but time and time again you're mocking them through your words and messages while your stating your side of the story. Anyway, enough time spend on this, thank you for reminding me of the ignore button. I'm done reading here for the day! GL

[danprown]

It means before they were recognizing sales when they sold units to the "customer." For BBRY, the customer is the carrier or the distrubutor. However, because of the low-sell through numbers, their revenue recognition model (4 criteria) does not allow them to recognize the sales anymore.

So now they have decided to recognize a sale only when the unit is in the hands of the user, or the timeframe for the carrier/distributor to return their shipment units passes.

The 1.7 BB10 units sold-through in Q2 are from inventories, and the $500 MM BB10 units shipped ti carriers/distributors in Q2 are deferred revenue (showing up in the liabilities portion).

I see, what do they mean by this bit then?

The number of BlackBerry handheld devices recognized decreased by approximately 3.7 million, or 50.0%, to approximately 3.7 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2014, compared to approximately 7.4 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2013. Most of the devices recognized in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 were BlackBerry 7 devices, in part because the Company deferred revenues related to BlackBerry 10 smartphones shipped in the second quarter of fiscal 2014 as they did not meet the revenue recognition criteria that the price be fixed or determinable. See “Critical Accounting Estimates - Revenue Recognition”.

Do they mean some of the phones sold through to customers have not been recognized? So what is that, Returns maybe?

[pkcable]

what is that good for?

In the business we refer to it as flamebaiting.

[W Hoa]

Seems they are taunting Prem into coming back with a lower bid.

Or it could be that, for example, the share price is brought down to $7.50 so that when the $9 per share is tendered shareholders will be happy to take it and Prem gets to say he bought BBRY at a 20% premium.

BBRY currently sitting 10 cents off its one year low.

[sidhuk]

Volume is low. What the heck I am jumping in more.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

I really don't know what to think of BBRY....

It sure appears that there "should" be much more value to BB than what is being offered. And that everything BB is doing "seems" to be a "unconscious" move on their part to make BBRY weaker than it should be.

But then I really don't see either Hardware of Services being long term viable products - BlackBerry doesn't have the capabilities to compete in the market anymore. They allowed the market to outgrow them, and they don't have the foresight, talent, knowledge, capital, brand, scale or backing to compete anymore.

And if Fairfax can't come up with the money or just drop their offer... what does BB do then. Just bleed to death over the next year, selling parts to keep things going until the end finally comes? They don't really have the CASH to just shut the doors, too many obligations to suppliers and customers, they would all join together and go after BB assets as protection.

But then again, anything is possible...

[morganplus8]

Or it could be that, for example, the share price is brought down to $7.50 so that when the $9 per share is tendered shareholders will be happy to take it and Prem gets to say he bought BBRY at a 20% premium.

BBRY currently sitting 10 cents off its one year low.

I think we can all see why Prem wants the company to go private here. The media are still bashing the company every day without a single new reason to do so. There is nothing in that MD & A report that we didn't already know yet the media have managed to find a new way to rehash the same old stuff.

Take the $ 400 charge to CORE:

<<< Company announced that it intends to implement a workforce reduction of approximately 4,500 positions, or approximately
40% of the Company’s current global workforce, resulting in a total workforce of approximately 7,000 full-time global
employees. The Company also announced that it is targeting an approximate 50% reduction in operating expenditures by the end
of the first quarter of fiscal 2015. In light of this recent announcement, the Company expects to incur $400 million in pre-tax
charges related to the CORE program throughout fiscal 2014 and the first quarter of fiscal 2015, up from its previous
expectation in the first quarter of fiscal 2014 that it would incur approximately $100 million of such charges throughout fiscal 2014. >>>

Well, in Q1 they projected that an additional $ 100 million would be written off in future quarters for Core, of that, they wrote off $ 72 million in Q2. Fine, they have $ 28 million to go there. Subsequent to Q1, they are going to fire 4.500 staff at a cost of $ 300 million dollars, I know the media and analysts thought they could do this for no cost, but really, don't you think they might have to pay them severance or something? The last 5,000 they let go cost them $ 400 in write downs so it is just common sense that they would pay some dollars this time around too. How silly is that?

The next issue is the "real" number of handsets sold to end users in Q1, it appears that Heins lied when he said 70% was sell through to end users in Q1 with 40% of the phones made up of BB 10's. He lied to make it worse because the actual number for sell-through to the end user was higher at 94% in Q1. Why would he down play these numbers and how is that bearish for the company? Fact is, he didn't lie, he guessed and was very conservative at that. But somehow, its a negative to be conservative in this world.

The next issue is the mix of phones in Q1 versus Q2, they actually sold 4.08 million BB 07's to carriers in Q1 and 4.2 million BB 07's to end users in Q2, which is a big improvement in those units. But again, that is somehow bearish.

Finally, we know they sold some BB 10's in Q4, but how many of those were sold to end users and how many remained in carrier hands going into Q1? We don't know because BB didn't go back that far. What we do know is that BB is selling far more BB 10's today than they did in Q4 and Q1. But again, that's a negative.

Do you see the pattern here, they hadn't added anything new to the .pdf but the media are running with the 2013 to 2014 comparisons and creaming the company again today. What we are missing is what does reducing all of those staff members and marketing costs do to the bottom line? Where is BBM-X? Where is BB 10.2? The company is basically taking it on the chin again and lying low. Prem will pay $ 9.00/shr for the company because all the laundry is out there and everyone is having fun with numbers and reducing the value of their assets to reach $ 5.00/shr. It's like a game to see who can destroy a company on paper. Big business outside of the US media aren't buying it and either is Prem.

[bigbadben10]

Thank you for your analysis M+8. I must admit that all this media news is starting to look very ominous. Thanks again Ben

Posted via CB10

[Soumaila Somtore]

Is this true????

and we thought our creative director wasn't really creative...who knew? Go alicia!

[bikenski]

Ah what the heck, I'll roll the dice. Have an order pending for 666 shares (seems fitting) at 7.49, and we'll see if it goes through. Looks like the price is bouncing back a bit now though, so I may be remaining on the sidelines.

[the_sleuth]

Watsa or rival needs to close a deal asap. The value of BB brand is melting away. Once your enterprise customers think you're the walking dead. Then the prophecy becomes self-fulfilling.

As to longs thinking this a buying opportunity, stop chasing a falling knife.

Wait for volume and unusual activity in the options market. The "in-the-loop" will know what deal transpires before the longs here.

I have another scenario to present:
Hybrid of i) and ii) from my earlier post.
Without rival bid, pressure from consortium to lower bid due to current SP and Watsa still uses bridge loan to finance the deal.

Sent from CB app on Android

[morganplus8]

Thank you for your analysis M+8. I must admit that all this media news is starting to look very ominous. Thanks again Ben

Posted via CB10

Hi Ben!!,

BlackBerry is a punching bag through all of this transformation, they brought it upon themselves by not fighting back. Now we have to ask BlackBerry's cousin, Uncle Prem to buy the company and give it back to Mikey and the gang. Seems a little unfair that a family board member has to correct the media problems with BlackBerry because the company itself isn't up to the challenge is it? I'll be waiting all afternoon for someone to challenge me on what's in that MD % A that is different than the pre-announcement statements. Not likely to find any additional reason not to believe that the media has it in for BBRY and could care less about the facts. Look at the company based upon its financials and not what the media needs for "clicks" today. If you need to look at a bankrupt company to compare notes, look at Kodak, Palm and many others, even GM, Chrysler, now that's what a bankrupt company looks like or at least looked like back a few years ago. Something to do with tons of debt, no market for their products, no high margin products sold to markets, no government support, the list goes on here.

Here is a little bit of the future, they spent $ 700 million on marketing in Q2 and will likely spend 1/2 that amount this coming quarter, how much will it take to fire all of those employees again ($ 300 million)? Do you see how the numbers tend to balance out here and no cash is lost? The media would have you think differently but Prem knows better. It might be possible that MSFT, CSCO, Samsung and the rest of them know better too.

[JLagoon]

Wtf?

[jake simmons3]

Wtf?

Ye just saw that

[jake simmons3]

Looks like there is a real battle to keep this at 8

[W Hoa]

Whoa! Away we go!

[Gerard Fraser]

Wow nice jump,must be news somewhere.