[plasmid_boy]

Unfortunately I think 349 is about 200 too much in the consumer market. Corporate could be different.

Posted via CB10

Dang, I paid about $780 for my wife's white Z10 only a few months ago.
I still think that it was a good move because now she won't complain if I get a Z30 for less than that.

[Kris Erickson]

There was an analyst report last thur/fri that said he looked at BB and valued the company at $7 /share ( sum of all parts) yet guys here and other analyst peg book value north of $12-15/share. That's a $8 swing. How can we get such a difference?

To the poster above saying that the company is really $8 as that is what it's trading as and not $9. If PW came out and said that the offer changed and it's now $8 I bet we would see the SP drop to $7. There is no way to satisfy Wall Street. I can wait till they go private.

[OMGitworks]

Bad timing in the UK. BBRY can't seem to catch a break anywhere in the world.

Britain's Times to pull Blackberry app due to lack of interest

[sidhuk]

RBC APP
http://crackberry.com/rbc-mobile-now...rry-10-devices

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Value has nothing to do with the buying price. Fairfax is not offering "top dollar" for BlackBerry, they are offering the least among that they believe they can get by with, without attracting another buyer. Bet that they wait to the last minute to drop their offer and close the deal.

[JLagoon]

BBRY short calc. 143 M shorts left.

[jake simmons3]

Value has nothing to do with the buying price. Fairfax is not offering "top dollar" for BlackBerry, they are offering the least among that they believe they can get by with, without attracting another buyer. Bet that they wait to the last minute to drop their offer and close the deal.

It still comes down to a vote and even at 9 I dont think they get the votes

[peter9477]

Value has nothing to do with the buying price. Fairfax is not offering "top dollar" for BlackBerry, they are offering the least among that they believe they can get by with, without attracting another buyer. Bet that they wait to the last minute to drop their offer and close the deal.

If they lower the offer, they vastly increase the chances of a No vote.

Also they lose the $0.30 breakup fee.

And their reputation.

[w4rrior]

Value has nothing to do with the buying price. Fairfax is not offering "top dollar" for BlackBerry, they are offering the least among that they believe they can get by with, without attracting another buyer. Bet that they wait to the last minute to drop their offer and close the deal.

I'm no expert but let's say on Nov 4th they decide to say "Okay, we are now offering $5/shr since there is no other interest out there". Won't they have to wait another 6 weeks for other bidders to counter their $5/share proposal?

[jayrock52]

Hi Morgan!
I just wanted to thank you for bringing PSDV to my attention. It closed up over 30% today!! Did you get in? Where do you see it going from here?
Thanks again!

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

I'm no expert but let's say on Nov 4th they decide to say "Okay, we are now offering $5/shr since there is no other interest out there". Won't they have to wait another 6 weeks for other bidders to counter their $5/share proposal?

They have to garner 90% plus of the vote, how are they going to get everyone including the arbs who are buying the shares at $ 8.00/shr now and have an average of $ 8.40/shr to go for that deal in a vote? It's going to happen at $ 9.00/shr or higher.

[jfguay2]

I'm no expert but let's say on Nov 4th they decide to say "Okay, we are now offering $5/shr since there is no other interest out there". Won't they have to wait another 6 weeks for other bidders to counter their $5/share proposal?

You would think that if they pull their offer (to put it a new one , lower) they lose the benefit that they negotiated (0.30$ per share) so not only would they make it more attractive for another bidder to come in, but Premium watsa might lose another 150 millions in fees, on top of the fact that shareholders are more likely to vote against. If that is the case, it would make it unlikely that they lower their offer.

Anyway, just a theory*.

[morganplus8]

Hi Morgan!
I just wanted to thank you for bringing PSDV to my attention. It closed up over 30% today!! Did you get in? Where do you see it going from here?
Thanks again!

Posted via CB10

Oh yeah!! I just have to show my lovely wife the chart on that one and I'll be getting lucky tonight! LOL I bought her a large block of the stock 3 weeks ago and she is doing fine. I also bought IMG/IAG US today and we have a monster block of HALO right now. We sold our shares in ACAD and have moved on. When you are ready I'll give you another one!

[fin2007]

You would think that if they pull their offer (to put it a new one , lower) they lose the benefit that they negotiated (0.30$ per share) so not only would they make it more attractive for another bidder to come in, but Premium watsa might lose another 150 millions in fees, on top of the fact that shareholders are more likely to vote against. If that is the case, it would make it unlikely that they lower their offer.

Anyway, just a theory*.

It all depends on the price BBRY traded around Nov. 4, say if it is traded at $7 on Nov.3, why they have to honor their offer, they can just offer $8 a share and force BOD to sign the agreement and get 50cents break fee by then.

It all depends on if there is another bid or not and share price around Nov.4.

[W Hoa]

Bad timing in the UK. BBRY can't seem to catch a break anywhere in the world.

Britain's Times to pull Blackberry app due to lack of interest

Knowing the Times, (or rather, the owners), they published the app just so they could pull it.

[abouthsu]

Oh yeah!! I just have to show my lovely wife the chart on that one and I'll be getting lucky tonight! LOL I bought her a large block of the stock 3 weeks ago and she is doing fine. I also bought IMG/IAG US today and we have a monster block of HALO right now. We sold our shares in ACAD and have moved on. When you are ready I'll give you another one!

Hi Morgan!

I do also like to thank you for HALO. I replaced my Dec with March calls for about the same premium I paid for initially so hopefully gaining more time without additional costs will work out at the end! Thank you for sharing, and I might just have to bribe your wife with a nice gift for the next gem when this is all said and done Have a good one!

* disclaimer, I'm aware of the risks involved and I'm fully responsible for my own decisions *

[peter9477]

I'm no expert but let's say on Nov 4th they decide to say "Okay, we are now offering $5/shr since there is no other interest out there". Won't they have to wait another 6 weeks for other bidders to counter their $5/share proposal?

You're trying to sell your old car. I offer you $9,000 for it.

You say you'd like to see if you can get any more for it so I give you six weeks to shop around. Nobody else offers you a dime.

I take back my offer and tell you I'll give you $5,000 instead.

Does this make you feel like I'm being fair, and are you likely to accept my offer? Have I just ruined any chance you or anyone will trust me in future to negotiate in good faith?

Anyway, even if we assume this is a possibility, the terms of the deal would whatever Fairfax and the board agree on. They could say 24h the next time... or immediately call a shareholder vote. (And always remember that shareholder vote... it's a key factor here for several reasons.)

[peter9477]

It all depends on the price BBRY traded around Nov. 4, say if it is traded at $7 on Nov.3, why they have to honor their offer, they can just offer $8 a share and force BOD to sign the agreement and get 50cents break fee by then.

And how are they going to force the BOD to sign it? And how will they get the break fee, when it only applies if the board approves a superior offer?

You haven't actually read the agreement have you?

[kfh227]

There was an analyst report last thur/fri that said he looked at BB and valued the company at $7 /share ( sum of all parts) yet guys here and other analyst peg book value north of $12-15/share. That's a $8 swing. How can we get such a difference?

To the poster above saying that the company is really $8 as that is what it's trading as and not $9. If PW came out and said that the offer changed and it's now $8 I bet we would see the SP drop to $7. There is no way to satisfy Wall Street. I can wait till they go private.

To value bbry, you need to project future free cash flows with reasonable certainty. Good luck. And that is why you can see numbers from $5 to $50.

If fcf can get to $1B and grow slowly, that's about a 7x multiple. Add a percentage of total equity and you get fair value.

The math is simple. It's projecting the future that is hard. This is not JNJ

People don't seem to understand that investing is 5% qualitative and 95% qualitative.
Posted via CB10

[jayrock52]

Oh yeah!! I just have to show my lovely wife the chart on that one and I'll be getting lucky tonight! LOL I bought her a large block of the stock 3 weeks ago and she is doing fine. I also bought IMG/IAG US today and we have a monster block of HALO right now. We sold our shares in ACAD and have moved on. When you are ready I'll give you another one!

Lol. Ya I've had HALO since you mentioned it, I got back into IMG yesterday and holding PSDV. I'm ready for another one! Thanks!

P.s What do you think about ATRS? I've been contemplating getting in before the PDUFA on October 14th.

Posted via CB10

[jake simmons3]

They have to garner 90% plus of the vote, how are they going to get everyone including the arbs who are buying the shares at $ 8.00/shr now and have an average of $ 8.40/shr to go for that deal in a vote? It's going to happen at $ 9.00/shr or higher.

They need 90% of the votes to take it private ?

[Shanerredflag]

They need 90% of the votes to take it private ?

Yes...

Posted via CB10

[jake simmons3]

Yes...

Posted via CB10

How do they honestly expect 9 dollars to go through??

[difabs]

Oh yeah!! I just have to show my lovely wife the chart on that one and I'll be getting lucky tonight! LOL I bought her a large block of the stock 3 weeks ago and she is doing fine. I also bought IMG/IAG US today and we have a monster block of HALO right now. We sold our shares in ACAD and have moved on. When you are ready I'll give you another one!

There aren't enough words to say thanks for sharing those gems with us! I have definitely seen a boost to my portfolio because of it.

ps - excited to hear what this one you're keeping from us is...

[Shanerredflag]

A large chunk of shares are held by institutions...all the negative press, lousy reporting (media and BlackBerry's QR) and overall general pessimism held by many won't hurt the offer....if the price is under 8.70 by the end of the month and no other offers come in it will likely pass.

Posted via CB10