[Robert Halloran]

Apparently the leaked version of BBM for Android was downloaded 1.1 million times in a span of 8 hours before it was shut down. We know the real release was supposed to happen on Sept 21 but didn't. Is anyone else wondering if this delay doesn't have more to do with the pending sale as opposed to any other reason? If the release had of gone ahead on the 21st, the number of new BBM users could of been huge in a very short period of time. Maybe that would of worked against Prem who wants to get to Nov 4th with nothing but bad news so he can take the company for a song. News of soaring BBM stats could cause a new bidder to come to the table which of course does not work in the favour of someone who wishes to pick it up at a huge discount. I smell something fishy ... do you?

[bungaboy]

What aboot (lol) :

Dan Ackroyd
John Candy
Hank Snow
Wilf Carter
Shania Twain
Joni Mitchell
Anne Murray
Diana Krall
Leonard Cohen
Neil Young
Gordon Lightfoot
Paul Anka
Michael Bubl�
Burton Cummings
k.d. lang
Tommy Chong
Lorne Greene
Jay Silverheels

[BBNation]

Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 2:19 PM
@dost @herewegoagain you really did nail it on the head with that one. Jabil is happy. Heins is happy. BBRY investors get screwed.
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Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:37 PM
@dost @herewegoagain It should be illegal, but that's the way stuff works. It's all bull****.
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Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:36 PM
@dost @herewegoagain massive write-down. And that 'revenue' you said you made never existed. It's an accounting gimmick.
ReplyShareLike

Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:35 PM
@dost @herewegoagain those businesses return the products to BBRY and BBRY gets stuck with very high inventory ... which could lead to a...
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Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:34 PM
@dost @herewegoagain However, channel stuffing (as you've seen in BBRY's case) has a downside. If that inventory isn't purchased, then
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Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:34 PM
@dost @herewegoagain BBRY had the power to channel stuff because it recognized revenue before the sale of the product was completed.
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Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:32 PM
@dost @herewegoagain Exactly. Some companies recognize revenue differently. Could be a red flag if others in the space do it another way.
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Vconomics replied to your message Sep. 30 at 1:02 PM
@herewegoagain @dost Apple recognizes revenue when the device is sold, so does Nokia
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JakeQ replied to your message Sep. 30 at 11:29 AM
@dost $BB.CA $BBRY You derivative players have until Nov. 4th to get "unscrewed".
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HB1996 replied to your message

[plasmid_boy]

What aboot (lol) :

Dan Ackroyd
John Candy
Hank Snow
Wilf Carter
Shania Twain
Joni Mitchell
Anne Murray
Diana Krall
Leonard Cohen
Neil Young
Gordon Lightfoot
Paul Anka
Michael Bubl�
Burton Cummings
k.d. lang
Tommy Chong
Lorne Greene
Jay Silverheels

I know, but I didn't want to sound old...LOL

[BBNation]

Apparently the leaked version of BBM for Android was downloaded 1.1 million times in a span of 8 hours before it was shut down. We know the real release was supposed to happen on Sept 21 but didn't. Is anyone else wondering if this delay doesn't have more to do with the pending sale as opposed to any other reason? If the release had of gone ahead on the 21st, the number of new BBM users could of been huge in a very short period of time. Maybe that would of worked against Prem who wants to get to Nov 4th with nothing but bad news so he can take the company for a song. News of soaring BBM stats could cause a new bidder to come to the table which of course does not work in the favour of someone who wishes to pick it up at a huge discount. I smell something fishy ... do you?

Myself being IT pro for years and based on what happened here, only 2 possible explanation. One due to sale offer
2nd is that BB servers could not keep up with the load. currently 2 billions messages a day with 60 million BBM users sending encryped compressed messages. So few more millions within days servers might cripped so they thought it is better to stop now than later due to bad PR and publicity. Once something is offered and it's down it's worse then delaying it once servers are souped up and ready for load. BB could just block the release # from the system saying you can not connect, re-send newer version to play and appstore.

[Superfly_FR]

Copy of a general article from ZDNet promoting MS purchase BB.

Microsoft should buy BlackBerry. There, I said it | ZDNet

I share most of the arguments (articles omits Oracle, but that's not the point).
Yet I'm no fan of the MicroBerry idea; you do not marry the fish and the rabbit.
Yet, building the strongest and transparent interoperability is/would be a great and bright idea.
I've reported here that BES10 and office365 will interop (as/better than o365 with legacy BB devices). I do pretend BBMWP is already a reality. Unbranded but real.

IMHO the only question is "When". But when the day comes, whatever form it takes...

Disclaimer : this is only my POV.

Posted via CB10

[michaelshawn]

Myself being IT pro for years and based on what happened here, only 2 possible explanation. One due to sale offer
2nd is that BB servers could not keep up with the load. currently 2 billions messages a day with 60 million BBM users sending encryped compressed messages. So few more millions within days servers might cripped so they thought it is better to stop now than later due to bad PR and publicity. Once something is offered and it's down it's worse then delaying it once servers are souped up and ready for load. BB could just block the release # from the system saying you can not connect, re-send newer version to play and appstore.

I think your first explanation is the correct answer

Posted from My all in one beauty Z10

[bungaboy]

I know, but I didn't want to sound old...LOL

Got me! LoL

[Superfly_FR]

Myself being IT pro for years and based on what happened here, only 2 possible explanation. One due to sale offer
2nd is that BB servers could not keep up with the load. currently 2 billions messages a day with 60 million BBM users sending encryped compressed messages. So few more millions within days servers might cripped so they thought it is better to stop now than later due to bad PR and publicity. Once something is offered and it's down it's worse then delaying it once servers are souped up and ready for load. BB could just block the release # from the system saying you can not connect, re-send newer version to play and appstore.

Most likely the beta was buggy on the network side (unoptimized, to say the least). YET, I also believe this large "test" and the problems it enlightened revealed further weakness that weren't expected.
So, it's only "half bad"... in a way. But current situation (lay offs) is not really a good incentive to productivity...

Posted via CB10

[CDM76]

There have been a couple of people who seem to think that Canadian government rules are a good thing. That may be true, however, it's a bad thing for the BBRY share price because it scares away potential bidders who don't want politicians questioning their national interests. For example, if Google were to make a bid there would instantly be someone asking Canadian politicians whether they are comfortable with Google because of [the latest controversy].

True but Cdn gov and military rely heavily on BlackBerry phones. As such they need to protect its security features. Unbelievable they don't seem to want to protect the company itself.

Posted via CB10

[BergerKing]

You guys may want to consider contacting his/her IP and advising they are a spammer. They would shut off his/her services maybe. LoL

Shhhhhhhhhh.......

[JonCBK]

JonCBK,

I think many have good reason to think that the $ 1 billion writedown is a good thing for BBRY or suitors of BBRY. You are right, the current price for Z10's is too high but that's because it is a 9 month old phone and we now have Q10. Q5 and Z30 at the moment. All BB 10 phones are great with BB 10.2 on them, we only have the Z30 with this awesome OS today. In October, we will see the roll out of BB 10.2 and that will make these phones even better. But what is great about the Z10, is the price, they are now just beginning to sell BES10.1 to Enterprise and direct sell Z10s and Q10 to them as well. They have cut out their middlemen and can sell these phones in large quantities to Enterprise at a price between zero and $ 450.00. That is a welcome sign and that $ 450 is/was the full retail price to carriers so that is a hugely profitable range for them. On top of that, they are selling these phones for a profit thanks to the writedown and only have to beat Q2 at $ 800 million in revenue. The bar is so low and the direct sales price is so high without all of the overhead, they could kill in Q3. To continue the math, suppose they sell 2.2 million BB 10's at a $ 350 average, and at no cost to them, that money is all high margin stuff. They did sell 5.9 million phones in Q2 and counted only 3.7 million of them because the 2.2 million BB 10 phones were shipped to carriers but unsold in Q1. Still, they sold them and some BB 10's shipped in Q2 that we weren't allowed to know the breakout of. It is clear that they continue to sell BB 07s because they attract subs and revenue, in addition, they pay some of the bills of running BB. So to conclude, they have right-sized the company, the number of BB 10's needed to produce some positive revenue is now reasonable and sales haven't tanked so much as they are restated. Now that BES10.1 is starting to kick in, along with the launch of the Z30 and BB 10.2, and less we forget, the BBM-X nonsense, seeing just 2.2 million BB10's sold in Q3 should be easy, not to mention the benefits of selling at least 3.3 million BB 07s (projected and likely).

The company could launch BBM-X, BB 10.2 and sell to Enterprise directly and make plenty of money in Q3, then simply turn down Prem's offer. Finally, analysts haven't raised their targets on BlackBerry for nothing, the most bearish of all analysts went from $ 5.00 to $ 9.00 because they can see that BB is right-sided to be profitable again. They won't be burning cash and can work with their BES10.1 customers to sell phones directly and thus cut out the middlemen.

What I find funny is the comments made by Misek, you know the guy who had a target for BBRY of $ 22.00/shr in the final week of June/2013, and now has a target price of just $ 5.00/shr, two months later, while telling us all along that BB should dump hardware and run on software and security alone. He gets what he wishes for and drops his target to $ 5.00/shr. You might just want to sue some analysts wouldn't you? LOL

Morgan

I think you are overestimating the ability to sell Z10s at those prices. I'm sure they can't sell one million of them in a quarter at $450. In fact I doubt they could sell that many at $300. No one will buy the Z10 unless it is the cheapest smartphone in the store. Now I still think there is a chance of the Z30, Q10 and Q5 driving 2 million of sales in a quarter. The Z30 should have very good battery life compared to Android phones and very good cell reception. Also possibly the ability to be sold cheaper than the 5 inch flagships.
It is nice that BBRY has taken its medicine with this write-off. But I think folks are assuming they have written the phones off to zero. But it might be that they have written them off to something like half value under the assumption that the phones will sell at a decent price. If that assumption doesn't work out then there could be further writeoffs on the same phones. Please correct me if there actually have been statements about writing these phones off to zero and that the phones actually exist somewhere and are paid for. But, if I fear, there are 5 million of these Z10s out there and they have written them off to $100 each, then we may be in a situation where we will see these for sale for cheap for years to come. This is much like the Playbook which is still available new.

[Bigbacala]

Just a few examples.

1. Aerospace (Bombardier).
2. Mass transportation (Bombardier).
3. Automotive (Magna)
4. Forestry
5. Fishery
6. Film
7. Communication (Bell invented the telephone, RIM invented the smart phone).
8. Other transportation (Bombardier invented the snowmobile, seadoo, skiidoo, and CanAm motor trike).
9. Oil.
10. Intellectual capacity. Yeah, this is not a category and not easy to measure its impact, I am sitting here in the US and seeing a LOT of highly educated Canadians down here. LOL

Antonio Meucci invented the Telephone. Bell scooped up the patent when Meucci didn't have the $5 to renew it.

Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

Antonio Meucci invented the Telephone. Bell scooped up the patent when Meucci didn't have the $5 to renew it.

Posted via CB10

I believe that this issue had been debated and settled more than a hundred years ago. True that Meucci submitted a patent about 9 years before Bell, but it is not correct that Bell scooped up Meucci's patent. What Bell submitted was his invention. If you go to Bell's house in Brentford Ontario, you will see his prototypes and early experimental devices. The US government tried to deny Bell's patent citing Meucci's expired patent, but Bell's patent was significantly different and stronger, plus he had a working prototype, so he won. The rest is history.

Posted via CB10

[Bacon Munchers]

BlackBerry responds to Gartner's call for clients to ditch BB products - Computerworld
BBRY needs to come out with some sweet offer for the enterprise customers to battle the negativity. No CALs for Z10s?

Hey Gang,

What would us shareholders rather see? BBRY selling to DOD, Sheriff, Court Services, Min. of Health, and various Crown Corporations, or..... corps like Home Depot?
From what I am still seeing, BBRY is still holding in fairly tight with the people in high places, that pay.

PS - I have bit my finger nails to the flesh over all of this, and now I am onto my toe nails.
So here I sit, toe-jam breath and all, awaiting for the next big news....

[Bacon Munchers]

If 80% of BB sales are to consumers, and they are only going to sell 4 BB10 handsets, whats happening to BB7, their mass consumer OS, and when is it happening? Anyone have more clarity on this?

Wait... 80% of BBRY lie in the consumer market?

Can I request some data on this one Gesig?

[cjcampbell]

Wait... 80% of BBRY lie in the consumer market?

Can I request some data on this one Gesig?

Don't encourage

Posted via CB10

[the_sleuth]

I don't understand why we don't have management discussion & analysis yet. It should have been released last Friday. If not, then BB Finance & Accounting Dept should have worked all weekend to produce it today. Oh wait, another botched release by BlackBerry, similar to BBM.

Until we have MD&A, then we won't have better answers as to what is going on with inventories. I regard most Seeking Alpha articles from armchair analysts as verbal diarrhea but this one does a good analysis of Q2 revenue:

BlackBerry: Digging Into The Q2 FY2014 Earnings Report
It is a sign of how negative expectations for BlackBerry (BBRY) have become that it was down over 4% in pre-market trading Friday due to worries that its Q2 FY2014 earnings report would provide even worse news than the already dismal earnings warning. BlackBerry's share price rebounded to finish Friday up 1% after the earnings report was only about as bad as expected.

Since BlackBerry cancelled its conference call, we are left to dissect its earnings report on our own. More clarity will hopefully be provided by some of the detailed information in the MD&A, but in the meantime, here is a look at some of the more interesting items from the earnings report.

Working Capital

Working capital fell from $3.681 billion to $2.786 billion, a decrease of $895 million from last quarter. Deferred revenue increased by $488 million from Q1 FY2014 and other current assets increased by $356 million from Q1 FY 2014. The deferred revenue account includes the revenue that can't be recognized for BlackBerry 10 units shipped into the channel. The other current assets account likely includes deferred cost of goods sold, which is for those unrecognized BlackBerry 10 shipments as well.

If BlackBerry can recognize that revenue in the future, then the effective decrease in working capital may have been $763 million instead. However, since BlackBerry has not recognized revenue on those units due to uncertainty about the return rate, there is no guarantee that those units will sell-through and be counted as revenue. Another item affecting working capital is the inventory writeoff. We currently do not know how much inventory (and thus working capital) was affected by the writeoff as opposed to future purchase obligations and commitments. That information should be in the MD&A.

More Information About Deferred Revenue and COGS

Deferred revenue increased from $346 million at the end of Q1 FY2014 to $834 million at the end of Q2 FY2014. This is an increase of $488 million. If the average selling price for BlackBerry 10 devices during the quarter would have been $400, then the increase in deferred revenue represents shipments of 1.2 million BlackBerry 10 units that it can't recognize yet. BlackBerry's revenue recognition policy indicates that a deferral of hardware revenue could occur when return rates are uncertain and likely very high. The increase of $356 million in other current assets may represent deferred cost of goods sold for those 1.2 million units, which would be around $300 per unit. There may be other factors that impact deferred revenue and deferred cost of goods sold, but BlackBerry has not historically given a detailed breakdown of what affects those two accounts.

If BlackBerry had been able to recognize those BlackBerry 10 shipments, we probably would have seen something similar to the following results (excluding the impact of the inventory provision and CORE charges):

$Million....................Actual................ ......Adjusted
Revenue..................1573..................... .....2061
COGS......................1003.................... .....1359
Gross Margin.............570...........................7 02
Op Ex........................996..................... .......996
Operating Loss........-426...........................-294

These results are slightly better, but with an operating loss of $294 million even while recognizing those BlackBerry 10 shipments, it is apparent that BlackBerry needs to continue restructuring quickly.

Revenue Breakdown

Based on the percentages given in the Q2 FY2014 earnings release, service revenues are down from $794 million to approximately $723 million this quarter. This represents a decrease of 9%, which is within (albeit at the high-end of) BlackBerry's guidance for a single digit decline during its Q1 FY2014 conference call. It is assumed that BlackBerry is still not recognizing Venezuelan service revenue due to the uncertainty around collecting it, although more details about that will likely be in the MD&A.

Revenue Source..........................$Million
Hardware.........................................7 71
Service........................................... ..723
Software and Other............................79

ASP

ASP is estimated at $208 based on 3.7 million units and $771 million in hardware revenues. This ASP is one of the lowest ever for BlackBerry, and does confirm that nearly all of the 3.7 million units shipped and recognized as revenue were BlackBerry 7 devices.

It also appears that BlackBerry lost approximately $100 million on hardware sales based on its typical service and software margins of around 85%. While BlackBerry will make that money back via future service revenues, the negative device margins are troubling since BlackBerry had appeared to get BlackBerry 7 margins close to breakeven in prior quarters.

Inventory

Despite the $934 million writeoff, inventory still rose from $887 million at the end of Q1 FY2014 to $941 million at the end of Q2 FY2014. We will need to look for additional information in the MD&A to see how much of the writeoff affected future purchase commitments versus current inventory. This inventory number would appear to show that inventory likely increased by over a million units though, given that Z10 units would have been revalued at a low amount.

Income Taxes Receivable and Future Cash Flow

Due to its heavy losses and large writeoff, BlackBerry's income taxes receivable increased by $429 million. This will help it slow the rate of cash burn over the next year as it seeks to restructure operations.

If business keeps trending the way it is going, it appears that the effective future rate of cash burn (after incorporating income tax refunds) will be around $200 to $300 million per quarter, plus any additional cash costs related to writeoffs and restructuring charges.

Conclusion

BlackBerry's Q2 FY2014 report does not contain any major surprises so far, although the high remaining level of inventory is troubling. Combined with the inability to recognize BlackBerry 10 shipments as revenues due to high and uncertain rates of return, this could potentially lead to further writeoffs of other device inventory in the future. Close attention should be paid to the level of future purchase commitments in the MD&A.

As for BlackBerry's cash position, we estimate that it should be able to complete restructuring in Q1 FY2015 with around $1.5 billion to $2 billion cash remaining, although that is subject to whether it can sell its inventory at least at cost.

We are still holding BlackBerry, although we may take steps to hedge our position for November, as there is substantial downside if the Fairfax bid is withdrawn.

BlackBerry Ltd (BBRY): BlackBerry: Digging Into The Q2 FY2014 Earnings Report - Seeking Alpha

[Bacon Munchers]

Gregg, you talk about BB10 in the past tense, it was only just released!

I am sure they have a plan for the OS development that at least stretches a couple of years to add more functionality and features.

Second of all why would BlackBerry invest time and resources trying to keep people on a platform that will be dead soon, BlackBerry 7 that is.

If BlackBerry want to boost bb10 sales the best way to do this would be to speed up migration from bb7 to bb10 for both consumers and enterprise with incentives etc.

They have a captive audience which is much cheaper to migrate than the general consumer market.

I personally don't think the hardware is such an issue. If they have heavy BES10 adoption the rest will follow. That should be their primary concern now.

Posted via CB10

Hi Komoto,

BTW, I figure that you are a solid contributor here, but I wanted to counter point some issues that I am hearing from EVERY single BlackBerry business person I run into when in meetings, events, etc., that is now using a Q10 over the legacy.

Typical Situation:
Me: So, how do you like your new Q10?
Them: (Sigh!).... pause.... Well, I have mixed feelings....
Me: Like?
Them: I miss my track pad! I miss my editing! I miss the 'features'! I told my IT person to give me back my Bold!
Me: So, is there anything that you like?
Them: Actually, yes. I love the browser, and the camera. Also, the phone is super-fast. That is nice. It also types real well, and feels good in my hand. I just can't get with the gesture thing! Also, I can't set-up my Calendar properly - thing defaults to 1 hour appointments!
Me: I also took a while to get used to my Z10, but after a Month, I would not go back! How about I show you how to remedy some of those issues.... (10 mins. goes by).
Them: Wow! Thanks! Say, I really like that you have lock notifications, and those toasts are huge! Also, how did you get that cool editing box to just appear when you highlighted that text from the browser?

{Important Question Time!}:

Me: What version of OS are you on? Why hasn't your IT guy spent a half hour going over the basics?
Them: He has no idea! No training from what he told me.
Me: Don't worry about the version question, most of your issues will be resolved in 10.2....


I can't tell you how many times I have been through this with ex-legacy users. What does it tell you about BlackBerry conveying training to the clients? You decide.

[BBNation]

One of reason US, Google, FB, Microsoft, CBI, FBI wants BB to fail..
Older days they would have to break in to see what you doing..with smartphones no need to do that..they can draw your pix right from their office..
Long live BB..you are too smart..invented SmartPhone, Cloud..
The Government Is Spying On Us Through Our Computers, Phones, Cars, Buses, Streetlights, At Airports And On The Street, Via Mobile Scanners And Drones, Through Our Smart Meters, And In Many Other Ways | Conscious News Media

[cjcampbell]

Well, the American gov. couldn't get their stuff together so should be an interesting time ahead. At least with BB, there's not a lot more than could have an effect. For those of us in, or looking to get into, gold, I wonder what this will do with the price. Usually times of uncertainty gives it a boost but lately it hasn't really been working that way. Heck, with the last fed announcement of delaying of tapering, it spiked up, then when it was announced that it wasn't far off, it fell back down again. I wish I could get a handle on it. lol

[cgk]

Me: What version of OS are you on? Why hasn't your IT guy spent a half hour going over the basics?
Them: He has no idea! No training from what he told me.
Me: Don't worry about the version question, most of your issues will be resolved in 10.2....


I can't tell you how many times I have been through this with ex-legacy users. What does it tell you about BlackBerry conveying training to the clients? You decide.

An IT guy giving you training on a mobile is atypical these days. in the same way users don't get given training on work PCs, you expected to simply pick up and use them. I'm sure a few companies are still doing it but they would be not be normal.

[Gesig Boek]

BlackBerry played down reports about it pulling out of the consumer market at the London launch event for its Z30 smartphone.

"Reports have been misconstrued by the media and analysts. BlackBerry is not pulling out of the consumer market,” Johnathan Young, senior director of retail and distribution at BlackBerry, told IT Pro.

“Around 80 per cent of our customers are consumers. The UK is a core market for BlackBerry and we've have had strong support from partners."


Read more: BlackBerry denies consumer market exit reports | IT PRO

[kfh227]

Hey Gang,

What would us shareholders rather see? BBRY [b]publicizing[\b] selling to DOD, Sheriff, Court Services, Min. of Health, and various Crown Corporations, or..... corps like Home Depot?
From what I am still seeing, BBRY is still holding in fairly tight with the people in high places, that pay.

PS - I have bit my finger nails to the flesh over all of this, and now I am onto my toe nails.
So here I sit, toe-jam breath and all, awaiting for the next big news....

Fixed with one word that actually raises concern for myself.


Posted via CB10

[cgk]

BlackBerry played down reports about it pulling out of the consumer market at the London launch event for its Z30 smartphone.

"Reports have been misconstrued by the media and analysts. BlackBerry is not pulling out of the consumer market,” Johnathan Young, senior director of retail and distribution at BlackBerry, told IT Pro.

“Around 80 per cent of our customers are consumers. The UK is a core market for BlackBerry and we've have had strong support from partners."


Read more: BlackBerry denies consumer market exit reports | IT PRO

Someone tell PW:

“It’s a good company, it’s a good product. Otherwise nothing could help it,” he says. “Can it compete in the consumer market with Apple and Samsung and the Android? No, we think that’s very tough. But in the enterprise market they’ve got huge advantages.”

Fairfax