[the_sleuth]

I have been investing for over 30 years. One thing I have learned over time, most sell-side analyst reports are not worthy to cover a public toilet seats.

As others have mentioned, at $7.00/share bid offer, I would say high probability of shareholders rejecting it.

If there is no rival bid, even LOI becoming firm offer of $9/ share, there is a probability of shareholder rejection.

Remember, the current tangible book value is $9.54/ share. $9.00 is a lousy offer and smells of corporate raiding. Prem Watsa is not your uncle or other family relative. So why trust him?

No matter the noise in the media, there is value in BlackBerry assets. But rival bid will have to act quickly.

Or else the piranhas will kill BlackBerry's future with a thousand cuts of FUD.

Canaccord Genuity is saying this morning that they believe that the company can be sold for $7 once Prem completes his due diligence of the books.

Posted via CB10

Sent from CB app on Android

[W Hoa]

For months now we've heard the refrain about the new BB10 phones ' yeh, but how many did BBRY sell?' As far as the numbers went it was all channel stuffing and even Apple reveals how many it 'sold' blah blah blah.

Well maybe not.

Munster believes that Apple�s 9 million units includes �channel fill of the 5C� to the tune of 3.5 million units.

In other words, Apple may have sold 9 million iPhones to its retail partners, but only 5.5 million of those iPhones have actually been sold to customers.

Is There Actually a Surplus of Apple

[Komoto]

What is FUD btw, seen it being used a lot.

Posted via CB10

[plasmid_boy]

Canaccord Genuity is saying this morning that they believe that the company can be sold for $7 once Prem completes his due diligence of the books.

Posted via CB10

I have transferred some funds into my investment account ready to fire if it stays below $8 when market opens.
Not suggesting that anyone should follow, just my gamble. I am in it to make money of course, but Canada is my country, most of my friends and family are still there, and I owe this wonderful country a lot. So, if I loss in this play, I am willing to take one for the team (I can afford to).

OK. Back to work (it's amazing how much one can accomplish in a day just simply by stepping away from this thread for a while..LOL).

Edit: Done at $7.88/share (I might end up joining Morgan in the dog house because of this, but...)

[peter9477]

What is FUD btw, seen it being used a lot.

Google "define: fud" and check the first few links.

It's Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt. I'll leave it to the google results to give a fuller explanation since I couldn't do it justice here.

[cjcampbell]

What is FUD btw, seen it being used a lot.

Posted via CB10

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

[m0de25]

Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt.

Would make a great ticker symbol

[BlackistheBerry]

BBRY is green!!

[OMGitworks]

markets are down today thanks to US govt bickering, the only thing that counts now is the $9 deal. so, the question is whether you like to make money from $8 to $9(plus)?

Got out at 10.25 and into HALO. Have about 35% of my BBRY losses back even with this morning's sell off. The spread isn't good enough for the risk/reward. Plus this is my "fun" money and I don't want to put any real money into this gamble so doing so would require selling HALO. It might not be a bad idea since HALO has had such a nice run, but I'll stay put in HALO for now.

And - HALO shot back up, what a crazy open. Opened down 60 cents and then right back up. And I thought BBRY was erratic...

[cgk]

The sales number shows the bad number is across all regions, enough said

Yeah we need to get off this "the emerging markets" kick, sales are pretty dismal everywhere - and that is from their own figures.

The other alternative is that they do have a couple of really strong markets but that would means simply are zero or as near zero to matter in most markets.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

[fin2007]

Fin, so by logic any business in a competitive environment is doomed to fail.

Sure MDM is competitive, sure the smartphone market is competitive, sure cross platform messaging is competitive.

It is the same for every single business around the world.

The competition is not the issue it is the product. Does it have a USP?

Posted via CB10

That is not my point. Just like BBM, I do not see any reason it can sucess, why would people switch from wechat/whatsapp/iMessge to BBM? same reason why would people switch from ANdriod/iOS to BB10.

[BlackistheBerry]

Yeah we need to get off this "the emerging markets" kick, sales are pretty dismal everywhere - and that is from their own figures.

The other alternative is that they do have a couple of really strong markets but that would means simply are zero or as near zero to matter in most markets.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

Just because the 'sales are dismal', does not mean that one can logically relate it to anything and everything though.
All I said was that it wasn't a good idea to try and correlate it with the upgrade cycle.

It'like saying... the sales are not good because of PlayBook.... the sales are not good because Blackbwrrys have the red blinking light.... etc.

[sidhuk]

I have transferred some funds into my investment account ready to fire if it stays below $8 when market opens.
Not suggesting that anyone should follow, just my gamble. I am in it to make money of course, but Canada is my country, most of my friends and family are still there, and I owe this wonderful country a lot. So, if I loss in this play, I am willing to take one for the team (I can afford to).

OK. Back to work (it's amazing how much one can accomplish in a day just simply by stepping away from this thread for a while..LOL).

Edit: Done at $7.88/share (I might end up joining Morgan in the dog house because of this, but...)

Watch it Doc, again, you are making people loose money eh!!!!!!
LoL
Good Morning Gang.

[fin2007]

Yeah we need to get off this "the emerging markets" kick, sales are pretty dismal everywhere - and that is from their own figures.

The other alternative is that they do have a couple of really strong markets but that would means simply are zero or as near zero to matter in most markets.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

There is zero strong market for bbry anywhere, for example, in Asian market, you sold lessthan 1M units per quarter(even counting the 2.2M bb10unit), that is hardly a big number at all, considering they have 3B people

[OMGitworks]

Here's the NY Times graphic. Take it for what it's worth. Some will see truth, others will no doubt see media distortion but the fact is that it appeared in the US's "best" paper which is read/seen by many decision makers.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ref=technology

[morganplus8]

I have transferred some funds into my investment account ready to fire if it stays below $8 when market opens.
Not suggesting that anyone should follow, just my gamble. I am in it to make money of course, but Canada is my country, most of my friends and family are still there, and I owe this wonderful country a lot. So, if I loss in this play, I am willing to take one for the team (I can afford to).

OK. Back to work (it's amazing how much one can accomplish in a day just simply by stepping away from this thread for a while..LOL).

Edit: Done at $7.88/share (I might end up joining Morgan in the dog house because of this, but...)

We'll see if you made the right decision, the number to look for is $ 8.06/shr, a close above that and we are heading back to $ 8.80/shr. I covered my AAPL short today, that one is a money maker on the downside. I have a ton of money to invest now, out of ACAD and AAPL, why can't gold sell off so I can buy a large block of IAG, it's not fair.

BBRY is looking good down here, solid base and all the "distorted news" is out. Still haven't heard from one person regarding the "correct" interpretation of what happened to BB's inventory in Q1, Q2 and what we can expect in Q3 but the bashing continues! LOL

Now if only the Americans can get their act together ..........................

[Komoto]

I also can't see everyone is saying sales are dismal.

Only if you compare them to apple and samsung.

In Q1 sales were approx 600 k units. It was one month of sales.

Q2 approx 2.2 mil units sold in 3 months, that is rough estimate because of the change to Rev recog.

So that is about 750k per month. Flat or slightly up since launch, what is the big issue.

Obviously they were never going to sell 9 mil units in the first weekend, but who was really expecting that?

Posted via CB10

[Komoto]

That is not my point. Just like BBM, I do not see any reason it can sucess, why would people switch from wechat/whatsapp/iMessge to BBM? same reason why would people switch from ANdriod/iOS to BB10.

Or why would people switch from ios to android to wp8 and vice versa, but it does happen

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

I also can't see everyone is saying sales are dismal.

Only if you compare them to apple and samsung.

In Q1 sales were approx 600 k units. It was one month of sales.

Q2 approx 2.2 mil units sold in 3 months, that is rough estimate because of the change to Rev recog.

So that is about 750k per month. Flat or slightly up since launch, what is the big issue.

Obviously they were never going to sell 9 mil units in the first weekend, but who was really expecting that?

Posted via CB10

for companies like BBRY, if you could not sell 5m+ high end phones, you will lose money for sure, bbry did not lose much because of the service revenue, but as it is dropping fast, the future is dismal.

That is why except Samsung/Apple, most phone companies are losing money.

[fin2007]

Or why would people switch from ios to android to wp8 and vice versa, but it does happen

Posted via CB10

Yes, , it does happen, but not in a mass. say even if BBM add 50M users, does it matter? not at all.

[BlackistheBerry]

for companies like BBRY, if you could not sell 5m+ high end phones, you will lose money for sure, bbry did not lose much because of the service revenue, but as it is dropping fast, the future is dismal.

That is why except Samsung/Apple, most phone companies are losing money.

Service revenue dropping fast ????? ........

- The contribution of services to BlackBerry?s revenueshas also increased to 46% for the quarter, up from 35% in the same quarter last year and 26% in the previous quarter.

- The contribution of software and other revenue has increased year-on-year to 5%, up from 3% in the same quarter last year but flat from 5% in the previous quarter.

Source-

http://www.medianama.com/2013/09/223...fy14-earnings/

[fin2007]

Service revenue dropping fast ????? ........

- The contribution of services to BlackBerry?s revenueshas also increased to 46% for the quarter, up from 35% in the same quarter last year and 26% in the previous quarter.

- The contribution of software and other revenue has increased year-on-year to 5%, up from 3% in the same quarter last year but flat from 5% in the previous quarter.

Source-

BlackBerry Sold 5.9M Devices In Q2-FY14; $277M APAC Revenues, $934M Z10 Writedown - MediaNama

Gosh, what I say here? can not you ever read a financial report?

[plasmid_boy]

Watch it Doc, again, you are making people loose money eh!!!!!!
LoL
Good Morning Gang.

Yup, my wife just commented the other day "just think how many LV hand bags and Prada shoes I could buy with the money you lost in BBRY!" LOL...
My average is around $10.

[Komoto]

Yes, what if BlackBerry transition from a hardware company to software company, then hardware sales don't matter.

So you can sell 500k phones a month and still make money. You downsize your operation. Your phones will become more expensive for sure, because you won't have economies of scale, but these phones you are not selling on the consumer market, you are selling to people who either have to buy them or want to because of your USP (say security).

A good example is a construction company that rented buildings aswell. Before 2008 construction was going crazy so you have permanent staff, large teams and your own equipment.

Don't care so much for the rental from buildings as it is small and low margin.

Crisis hits all of a sudden construction is dead, downsize construction. No permanent staff, rent equipment. You can still build but your coat base is higher.
Thing is you are building for people that want you to hold because of reputation, they don't mind paying a premium.

Now all of a sudden the rental business is your bread and butter, you transition to focus on that.

2008 crisis for construction is similar to what is happening in the smartphone market with the comoditisation of the product.

Swap construction with hardware and rental with software and you have a pretty good analogy.

I have lived this, it works. Is BlackBerry aware of this, yes almost certainly. Is the competition aware of this, I would imagine so. You do the math.

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

Yup, my wife just commented the other day "just think how many LV hand bags and Prada shoes I could buy with the money you lost in BBRY!" LOL...
My average is around $10.

Lol, and I was thinking the same last night while watching a 2014 S class commercial. Oh well, just gonna delay it for another year. The number 2015 sounds better.