[Shanerredflag]

Not really sure they are abandoning anyone...devices will still be available to those that want them...by the sound of it the developer Jams will continue and they focus their limited resources on enterprise...seems like a strategy to get out of the way while the big two fight it out.

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

But my point was that nobody else is going to spend billions propping up a failed OS not how it would benefit BB - that is why even the failing android houses are sticking with android they can't finance everything else.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

the point is that is a good option, you don't decide whether there is nobody interested in the whole world, with such a negative attitude you cannot do anything ever

[Komoto]

Gisek,

You show that BlackBerry OS 7 devices are trending downwards but this is what I would expect.

It is an outdated mobile OS which is being phased out. I don't see why this should be an in demand product?

BlackBerry I'm sure would love to drop it asap but they need the revenues from it while they transition to bb10.

I fail to see your point.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

the point is that is a good option, you don't decide whether there is nobody interested in the whole world, with such a negative attitude you cannot do anything ever

It's a frankly more realistic one that we often see here, I'm not going to name and shame but many of the regulars who see a bright future for BB10 were predicting 30 million units + this year - so their views on successful OSes are a little.. weak for me given the reality of sales, finances available and the wider context of the market.

We aren't going to agree on this, you think there is a future for BB10, I think it's already dead - that our relatively positions and we will just go round in circles if we keep discussing it.

[silversun10]

I write for a Windows Phone site, so I know full well how much resources it takes to introduce a new OS against market resistance. BB does not have those resources.

From the low numbers in BB's PR it is clear they sold most of their BB10 handsets to the consumer market, and this is exactly the market they are abandoning.

so why don't you stay with your WP friends? nothing to see here for you

[silversun10]

It's a frankly more realistic one that we often see here, I'm not going to name and shame but many of the regulars who see a bright future for BB10 were predicting 30 million units + this year - so their views on successful OSes are a little.. weak for me given the reality of sales, finances available and the wider context of the market.

We aren't going to agree on this, you think there is a future for BB10, I think it's already dead - that our relatively positions and we will just go round in circles if we keep discussing it.

don't hold back hang it all out there. BB10 is dead already, so time to move on then, right? bye

[morganplus8]

$800 million is only around 2-3 million handsets ($260-400 each). BB is perilously close to that already in BB7 sales sales, which has been dropping very steadily and could accelerate, and BB10 shipments may be in the hundreds of thousands only.

BB is in deep trouble, and any offer will recognize this. Things are only going to deteriorate further.

Your constant BS on where BlackBerry is going won't fly. They sold 5.9 million handsets to end users in Q2, in addition, they shipped handsets to carriers in Q2 who hadn't sold them to end-users. We know that most of the 3.7 million recognized handsets sold through in Q2 were BB 07's, and because you don't understand this, you can't speak about the future. They are likely to sell another 3.0 million BB 07's in Q3, as well as the balance of 2.0 million BB 10's within the same period. When you convert to cash, that is a revenue base of $ 600 million BB 07's plus $ 600 million for BB 10's plus $ 700 million for Services. They are at $ 1.9 Billion in sales as a worse case scenario with 5.0 million handsets sold. In the meantime, operating costs are cut in 1/2 and they value the BB 10's at zero. The next quarter will be an excellent one. Stop the BS.

[cgk]

don't hold back hang it all out there. BB10 is dead already, so time to move then, right? bye

This is a thread about the company and the stock price - I think a smaller BBRY focused on enterprise and software can do ok and I own stock, that pretty much fulfils the criteria doesn't it?*

Anyway, I thought Mini-modding and trying to run people off was frowned upon?



* although I'm worried by the fact that Heins hides behind test server numbers.

[cgk]

Your constant BS on where BlackBerry is going won't fly. They sold 5.9 million handsets to end users in Q2, in addition, they shipped handsets to carriers in Q2 who hadn't sold them to end-users. We know that most of the 3.7 million recognized handsets sold through in Q2 were BB 07's, and because you don't understand this, you can't speak about the future. They are likely to sell another 3.0 million BB 07's in Q3, as well as the balance of 2.0 million BB 10's within the same period. When you convert to cash, that is a revenue base of $ 600 million BB 07's plus $ 600 million for BB 10's plus $ 700 million for Services. They are at $ 1.9 Billion in sales as a worse case scenario with 5.0 million handsets sold. In the meantime, operating costs are cut in 1/2 and they value the BB 10's at zero. The next quarter will be an excellent one. Stop the BS.

. Personally, I feel we are about to explode here and the charts will actually be trying to catch up to the trade. BBRY book value/stock price, makes no sense, Prem Watsa makes great sense, the $ 40.00 target makes more sense as a take-out level and so we are just starting to rally here.

I will try to make it clearer in my next chart!!! Hope this helps.

[Branta]

Did I really just ban a 3-minute member? Must be almost a record albeit the kind of record we would rather not be setting

[jxnb]

Morgan+8, it's great to read your posts today and have you back. To all the regulars on the thread over the past year or so, particularly Morgan, CJ, JLagoon, YangFui, Shaneredflag, and of course, Superfly(!) - and many others, I owe you all a great debt of gratitude. Although I've invested for many years in staid, safe ways, buying Blackberry stock beginning a year ago was my walk on the wild side. I did it with my eyes open, knowing fully that I could lose it all. I did as much homework as I could with available info and have continued to do so. This was/is my choice. Of course, the past three months have been gut-wrenching. However, I continue to hold my shares now because: 1) Mr. Watsa has been kind enough to establish a floor for the stock (I regard him as a man of honor who will not back-down from his offer at $9), and 2) given that floor, for the time being, I simply cannot write off what I feel is the enormous importance of BBRY's various and integrated security features (network, hardware, software, whole package) -- especially at a time of unparalleled importance for that security. For a few weeks anyway, I think there is limited further downside but the possibility of some upside.

Morgan, you always make me think hard. Earlier today you said, "We could hear from others, I feel this is likely 50% but the Prem deal is 25% and the turning down of Prem is 25% ..... to me at least. Prem has made the statement that he is open to offers and will not stand in the way of a better deal. I believe him." I'm trying to understand the 25% possibility of turning down Watsa's offer. Obviously, if a higher credible bid emerges, shareholders are likely to choose that. However, if there is no other higher and credible bid, why might shareholders refuse Watsa's bid, especially given that many remaining shareholders might want to cut their losses? It seems to me that for shareholders to reject his offer in the absence of better offers, then we would need to see in the next few weeks: a) an amazing new partnership or other catalyst of similar magnitude, and/or b) BBMx would have to come out and scorch the internet with its rapid take-up. There is not too much time left for "b" before Watsa's offer requires a thumbs up or down. However, as for "a," I'll just play with the fantasy idea that Samsung will offer a partnership in which they'd made devices using BB10, but pay very little -- opting instead to promote the heck out of BBMx across the board, and not just in Africa. (Note: I'm still trying to figure out why Crackberry Kevin was in Seoul this past week and why nothing further has been said about that yet. I enjoy Superfly's MSFT dreams, so this is just my little daydream.) If Samsung were to partner in massively promoting BBMx, then it would stand to reason that they could not announce it very effectively until BBMx is actually released. In sum, if there is a big catalyst such as these possibly connect ones, then perhaps shareholders would believe that no matter the profound distresses of the moment, taking a chance by rejecting Watsa's offer might be worth it. Are there other plausible reasons that shareholders might reject his bit?

Just a few idle thoughts. Again, thanks to all.

[morganplus8]

Did I really just ban a 3-minute member? Must be almost a record albeit the kind of record we would rather not be setting

Oh my god, I split a gut when I read that!!! LOL

[JLagoon]

It has been awhile. I am still holding, and feeling numb about BBRY, so I would like to offer my TA interpretation to appreciate Morgan, Superfly, and others, who continued to follow this thread with real experience. The format is a bit different compared to my previous TA post.

Daily chart:


Until 9/20/2013 (pre-ER), the daily chart shows a bouncing trend above the bottom pennant line. It was ripe based on TA for a rally to break out of the pennant. It did not happen, because of the pre-ER news. I leave the conspiracy theories to you. The coincidence was just too funny to ignore. Naturally, all indicators plunged as did the SP. When a pennant broke down, we can draw a parallel line to form the bottom parallel line (navy blue) based on the top pennant line to measure the possible downtrend. In this case, it could go down all the way to $7.11 by October 14. It does not mean that this will be met.

Is this going to happen? Well, that is quite far ahead. It is a possibility. What we have in the shorter term is an ascending triangle, the past 2 trading days. We'll get to that in the following charts. Another thing that we can notice is the MACD histogram that reached its max on Thursday, and became shorter on Friday. This is an indication that a small momentum to reverse the trend might have happened.

30 minute chart and 5 minute chart:




The ascending triangles are indicated with the 2 black lines. The top line is based on $8.15. The last close was $8.03, after a bounce from the bottom ascending triangle line. So, from a pure TA play, traders can see this as an entry with the opportunity to see a break out above $8.15. Again, from a pure TA play. Other supporting reasons to do this trade: on the 30 minute chart, the SP as managed to stay above MA 20; and on the daily chart the SP has gotten inside the Bollinger Band.

If you recall, this also occurred in July 2013:

[morganplus8]

Morgan+8, it's great to read your posts today and have you back. To all the regulars on the thread over the past year or so, particularly Morgan, CJ, JLagoon, YangFui, Shaneredflag, and of course, Superfly(!) - and many others, I owe you all a great debt of gratitude. Although I've invested for many years in staid, safe ways, buying Blackberry stock beginning a year ago was my walk on the wild side. I did it with my eyes open, knowing fully that I could lose it all. I did as much homework as I could with available info and have continued to do so. This was/is my choice. Of course, the past three months have been gut-wrenching. However, I continue to hold my shares now because: 1) Mr. Watsa has been kind enough to establish a floor for the stock (I regard him as a man of honor who will not back-down from his offer at $9), and 2) given that floor, for the time being, I simply cannot write off what I feel is the enormous importance of BBRY's various and integrated security features (network, hardware, software, whole package) -- especially at a time of unparalleled importance for that security. For a few weeks anyway, I think there is limited further downside but the possibility of some upside.

Morgan, you always make me think hard. Earlier today you said, "We could hear from others, I feel this is likely 50% but the Prem deal is 25% and the turning down of Prem is 25% ..... to me at least. Prem has made the statement that he is open to offers and will not stand in the way of a better deal. I believe him." I'm trying to understand the 25% possibility of turning down Watsa's offer. Obviously, if a higher credible bid emerges, shareholders are likely to choose that. However, if there is no other higher and credible bid, why might shareholders refuse Watsa's bid, especially given that many remaining shareholders might want to cut their losses? It seems to me that for shareholders to reject his offer in the absence of better offers, then we would need to see in the next few weeks: a) an amazing new partnership or other catalyst of similar magnitude, and/or b) BBMx would have to come out and scorch the internet with its rapid take-up. There is not too much time left for "b" before Watsa's offer requires a thumbs up or down. However, as for "a," I'll just play with the fantasy idea that Samsung will offer a partnership in which they'd made devices using BB10, but pay very little -- opting instead to promote the heck out of BBMx across the board, and not just in Africa. (Note: I'm still trying to figure out why Crackberry Kevin was in Seoul this past week and why nothing further has been said about that yet. I enjoy Superfly's MSFT dreams, so this is just my little daydream.) If Samsung were to partner in massively promoting BBMx, then it would stand to reason that they could not announce it very effectively until BBMx is actually released. In sum, if there is a big catalyst such as these possibly connect ones, then perhaps shareholders would believe that no matter the profound distresses of the moment, taking a chance by rejecting Watsa's offer might be worth it. Are there other plausible reasons that shareholders might reject his bit?

Just a few idle thoughts. Again, thanks to all.

jxnb!!

Great message and thanks for your kind comments.

You and I think alike, I want BlackBerry to partner up with Samsung in a big way, Sammy can lease patents, Sam can make the BB phones and Sammy can promote BBM-X. In return, BlackBerry opens up security to Sammy, and has their back on an OS should things go South from here. There is so much they can do in a Partnership here. As for the 25% chance that BB won't complete the deal with Prem, that stems from a crazy great BBM-X launch around the world. Sammy could give BB 200 million BBM head counts in 3 months promoting it with their phones. There are far too many reasons for BB to go it alone here. We'll see.

[Gesig Boek]

Your constant BS on where BlackBerry is going won't fly. They sold 5.9 million handsets to end users in Q2, in addition, they shipped handsets to carriers in Q2 who hadn't sold them to end-users. We know that most of the 3.7 million recognized handsets sold through in Q2 were BB 07's, and because you don't understand this, you can't speak about the future. They are likely to sell another 3.0 million BB 07's in Q3, as well as the balance of 2.0 million BB 10's within the same period.

Nothing wrong with that scenario, except sales would have dropped from 5.9 to 5 million, and BB7 is certain to continue to deteriorate, while BB10 shows no growth at all. They may break even in Q3, but what about Q4, when BB7 sales will drop to 2 million and BB10 sales will also still be 2 million?

[morganplus8]

Nothing wrong with that scenario, except sales would have dropped from 5.9 to 5 million, and BB7 is certain to continue to deteriorate, while BB10 shows no growth at all. They may break even in Q3, but what about Q4, when BB7 sales will drop to 2 million and BB10 sales will also still be 2 million?

Yet more BS, I gave you the worst case scenario, I fully expect unit sales 10% higher than those unit numbers in Q3 and the only reason they won't be even higher again is because of the Prem offer and poor publicity surrounding the writedown. Q3 will be highly profitable, again, you dismiss things you can't understand or ideas that are positive to the company. Q4 will likely be the same as Q3 and than the business will grow from there. Please go back to your MS board and try to figure out why Microsoft is such a failure.

[Komoto]

Gesik,

1) you assume no growth for bb10.
I think different.

2) You assume no other new revenue streams.


Getting rid of BlackBerry 7 was always the plan. BlackBerry 10 was always going to be difficult to establish.

This is what we are seeing now, why is everyone so shocked?

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

The 9920 just launched...should be around for at least 6 - 8 quarters?

Posted via CB10

[danprown]

BlackBerry responds to Gartner's call for clients to ditch BB products - Computerworld
BBRY needs to come out with some sweet offer for the enterprise customers to battle the negativity. No CALs for Z10s?

[peter9477]

Obviously, if a higher credible bid emerges, shareholders are likely to choose that. However, if there is no other higher and credible bid, why might shareholders refuse Watsa's bid, especially given that many remaining shareholders might want to cut their losses?

Many might, but 10% might not. That's all it takes. If 10% think that the company is still worth much more, and is digging itself out of this hole such that the SP could recover in a few quarters, then they may say sorry, no, but $9 just doesn't cut it. Simple as that.

[BergerKing]

Did I really just ban a 3-minute member? Must be almost a record albeit the kind of record we would rather not be setting

Yeah, it seems to be a game of Whack-A-Troll... Whack, flush, Whack, flush.

[silversun10]

This is a thread about the company and the stock price - I think a smaller BBRY focused on enterprise and software can do ok and I own stock, that pretty much fulfils the criteria doesn't it?*

Anyway, I thought Mini-modding and trying to run people off was frowned upon?



* although I'm worried by the fact that Heins hides behind test server numbers.

running any positive idea into the ground is frowned upon here.
going back to the past and quoting old posts just to embarrass posters, is also frowned upon.
perhaps you can keep that in mind and you will see less mini-modding(whatever that is) and etc.

[Shanerredflag]

And now for something off topic but very funny... from the rehab side of CB:
http://textastrophe.com/

Posted via CB10

[notfanboy]

going back to the past and quoting old posts just to embarrass posters, is also frowned upon.

Really??? I seem to recall much gloating when certain short positions were brought up for ridicule. I'm pretty sure those weren't frowned upon - based on the number of likes and thanks those and similar comments received.

[Shanerredflag]

Really??? I seem to recall much gloating when certain short positions were brought up for ridicule. I'm pretty sure those weren't frowned upon - based on the number of likes and thanks those and similar comments received.

This thread supports the stock and opposes those that do not...Deal with it.

Posted via CB10