[morganplus8]

M+8

I am not sure cutting out the middleman is such a great idea because I think there is a lot of dealers making a lot of money from enterprise customers. These dealers spend lots of money doing whatever it takes to get and maintain these accounts. Profit motivated.


I'm thinking that if a CIO has a choice between ordering directly from BlackBerry or something else offered by these face-to-face dealers then the constant pressure (and potential gifts and business lunches) may sway the CIO to purchase from the dealer which I assume will be pushing IOS and Droid.


What do you think?

I agree, I'm stating the worst case scenario in reponse to that message, it is much better if all parties see a mutual way to make money. There is little doubt about that. But, if BB had to dump Z10's on Enterprise, they can do it directly and keep a ton of revenue for themselves. The worst case scenario is still a real money maker. I would challenge anyone on this or any venue (the media or analysts) to try and explain the way the inventory writedown really happened. We have plenty of opinions but I'm not sure how many understand the reason why they did it in such a hurry and how it works for the future of hardware sells. Can anyone tell me what Q3 numbers are likely to look like, that should be easier?

[silversun10]

Why BlackBerry should ‘license’ its OS for free — GigaOM Pro

The importance of partnering with manufacturers

If Fairfax can close the deal and opts to keep BlackBerry intact, then, it could increase its prospects by expanding its hardware lineup. And because manufacturing is so expensive, it should consider partnering with other vendors willing to build BlackBerry handsets. It’s highly unlikely others would pay to license BlackBerry 10, of course, because sales are so slow. And while BlackBerry could conceivably take its OS open source, doing so would give rise to platform fragmentation and other problems that have slowed Android’s penetration in the enterprise market that has long been the company’s bread and butter.

Rather than going open source or trying to license its platform, BlackBerry could increase its (admittedly long) odds by giving away it away to manufacturers willing to build smartphones and tablets that support it, at least for a limited time. The mobile manufacturing business is more competitive than ever – just ask HTC or any other struggling vendor – so BlackBerry might be able to convince one or two to gamble on BlackBerry 10. Doing so would not only allow BlackBerry to expand its hardware portfolio with minimal expense, it might also result in devices that are substantially less expensive than its current lineup even as it retains complete control over the software. Such a move isn’t without risk, of course – it could sound the death knell for the manufacturing operation that is an underpinning for BlackBerry– but the company’s future is clearly in software and services. If Fairfax Financial truly wants to move forward in the smartphone business, it’s a risk worth taking.

[Shanerredflag]

Thanks for your thoughts M8...happy that your still contributing.

Posted via CB10

[Komoto]

M8 your take is plausible, but to be conservative I am going to assume that Prem deal is the only one as of now.

I really wish they would let this whole thing play out for a couple of years.

I just think that this whole thing has been very high risk as all of this negative press must be impacting their business. That in itself could lead to a downhill spiral, even if things aren't so bad yet.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Why BlackBerry should ‘license’ its OS for free — GigaOM Pro

The importance of partnering with manufacturers

If Fairfax can close the deal and opts to keep BlackBerry intact, then, it could increase its prospects by expanding its hardware lineup. And because manufacturing is so expensive, it should consider partnering with other vendors willing to build BlackBerry handsets. It’s highly unlikely others would pay to license BlackBerry 10, of course, because sales are so slow. And while BlackBerry could conceivably take its OS open source, doing so would give rise to platform fragmentation and other problems that have slowed Android’s penetration in the enterprise market that has long been the company’s bread and butter.

Rather than going open source or trying to license its platform, BlackBerry could increase its (admittedly long) odds by giving away it away to manufacturers willing to build smartphones and tablets that support it, at least for a limited time. The mobile manufacturing business is more competitive than ever – just ask HTC or any other struggling vendor – so BlackBerry might be able to convince one or two to gamble on BlackBerry 10. Doing so would not only allow BlackBerry to expand its hardware portfolio with minimal expense, it might also result in devices that are substantially less expensive than its current lineup even as it retains complete control over the software. Such a move isn’t without risk, of course – it could sound the death knell for the manufacturing operation that is an underpinning for BlackBerry– but the company’s future is clearly in software and services. If Fairfax Financial truly wants to move forward in the smartphone business, it’s a risk worth taking.

No for the simple reason that using a OS or building a phone is in many respects the cheap bit, who is going to spend the many many billions to build a competitive ecosystem that matches up to google play or itunes?

The devices and the OS are a big of a red herring in this context.

[morganplus8]

M8 your take is plausible, but to be conservative I am going to assume that Prem deal is the only one as of now.

I really wish they would let this whole thing play out for a couple of years.

I just think that this whole thing has been very high risk as all of this negative press must be impacting their business. That in itself could lead to a downhill spiral, even if things aren't so bad yet.

Posted via CB10

I believe we are still looking at two out-comes, at least, one is Prem, the other is turning down Prem. To me those are on the table right now.

We could hear from others, I feel this is likely 50% but the Prem deal is 25% and the turning down of Prem is 25% ..... to me at least. Prem has made the statement that he is open to offers and will not stand in the way of a better deal. I believe him. The media shouldn't be consulted in all of this because they failed to understand what happened in the pre-announcement telling me they are useless at this kind of business dealing.

If you can't understand the pre-announcement how can you comment on where BB is today? BlackBerry needs to continue to launch BBM-X and BB 10.2, that's all they need to do in the next 3 weeks. Let's leave them to it!!

[Gesig Boek]

Now the fun begins, with all of the posts on this thread rationalizing that "BBRY couldn't be worth more than $ 9.00/shr today", and that "there is no way an offer could come in because we have analyzed the value of the company based upon the latest Q report and they are lucky if they can survive" ............... what a load of nonsense. They downsided the company and reduced overhead. Unless total sales of handsets drop below $ < 800 miliion, they are now no longer burning cash, they are now able to sell free phones on their books for $ 280/unit which is cost (direct to BES10.1 enterprise), and well below the $ 450 they have been trying to get, and they have BES10.1 at the very beginning of growth. Now that they aren't marketing for the masses, costs will be dropping off in a big way. Heins could come out stating that they will be profitable going foward with these changes alone, but no one believes him any more so that only a modest plus.

$800 million is only around 2-3 million handsets ($260-400 each). BB is perilously close to that already in BB7 sales sales, which has been dropping very steadily and could accelerate, and BB10 shipments may be in the hundreds of thousands only.

BB is in deep trouble, and any offer will recognize this. Things are only going to deteriorate further.

[Shanerredflag]

$800 million is only around 2-3 million handsets ($260-400 each). BB is perilously close to that already in BB7 sales sales, which has been dropping very steadily and could accelerate, and BB10 shipments may be in the hundreds of thousands only.

BB is in deep trouble, and any offer will recognize this. Things are only going to deteriorate further.

Curious...who do you write for?

Posted via CB10

[bungaboy]

Do you also think there needs to be a change in management?

When Heins job as cleanup man is done I think it would be a good idea, for "image and appearance" sakes. I think Heins lost his street cred.

I also think they should give the BOD tree a good hard shake. (This may not be required if a "sale" takes place.)

Time will tell.

[silversun10]

Curious...who do you write for?

Posted via CB10

Nostradamus

[cgk]

When Heins job as cleanup man is done I think it would be a good idea, for "image and appearance" sakes. I think Heins lost his street cred.

I also think they should give the BOD tree a good hard shake. (This may not be required if a "sale" takes place.)

Time will tell.

Are we *really* going to get into revisionist history where Heins was simply intended as a placeholder? Do I really have to quote a few of you and the way you talk about him about him like he's the rebirth of Steve Jobs?

[silversun10]

No for the simple reason that using a OS or building a phone is in many respects the cheap bit, who is going to spend the many many billions to build a competitive ecosystem that matches up to google play or itunes?

The devices and the OS are a big of a red herring in this context.

i think the idea is that this would build on what BB already has done, so, yes why not?

much like Android has developed

[cgk]

i think the idea is that this would build on what BB already has done, so, yes why not?

What have they already done? The only thing of note in that respect is BBM and that is currently MIA in regards to cross-platform.

Best to concentrate on their real strength - enterprise and security for enterprises and forget about dreams of empire in a war that was fought and lost. OSes are like any other product they go through the stage of 'potential' (which is when other people would be interested) to other success (where you lock out other people) to 'has-been' (where you desperately try to sell on the lemon to other people) - BB10 has missed the middle and gone straight to the 'has-been' stage in regards to commercial interest. Chris U is perfectly right when he notes that the fact that the maker couldn't turn a dollar on it makes it completely unattractive to anyone else.

[Shanerredflag]

Are we *really* going to get into revisionist history where Heins was simply intended as a placeholder? Do I really have to quote a few of you and the way you talk about him about him like he's the rebirth of Steve Jobs?

Yes...please do.

Posted via CB10

[abouthsu]

$800 million is only around 2-3 million handsets ($260-400 each). BB is perilously close to that already in BB7 sales sales, which has been dropping very steadily and could accelerate, and BB10 shipments may be in the hundreds of thousands only.

BB is in deep trouble, and any offer will recognize this. Things are only going to deteriorate further.

Thanks for the reminder, I think your message is pretty consistent since you came on the thread. We heard you loud and clear, but can you please avoid repeating the samething. Thanks

[silversun10]

What have they already done? The only thing of note in that respect is BBM and that is currently MIA in regards to cross-platform.

Best to concentrate on their real strength - enterprise and security for enterprises and forget about dreams of empire in a war that was fought and lost. OSes are like any other product they go through the stage of 'potential' (which is when other people would be interested) to other success (where you lock out other people) to 'has-been' (where you desperately try to sell on the lemon to other people) - BB10 has missed the middle and gone straight to the 'has-been' stage in regards to commercial interest. Chris U is perfectly right when he notes that the fact that the maker couldn't turn a dollar on it makes it completely unattractive to anyone else.

the more reason to let somebody else have a go at it, it would only enhance BB10. and no sweat for BB, how on earth could that not be a positive for BB?

[Gesig Boek]

Look at the graph. BB7 shipments is trending towards 0 in less than 3 quarters, and thats before BB said they are stepping away from the consumer market. If they stop marketing in their strong developing markets, or even discontinue handsets there (only 4 BB10 handsets going forward) this will obviously happen even sooner.

We have no idea what the size of the BB10 market is yet, but it certainly seems less than 3 million a quarter, and that is without stopping marketing to consumers. If they plan only to sell direct to business we could be talking hundreds of thousands.

[Shanerredflag]

Look at the graph. BB7 shipments is trending towards 0 in less than 3 quarters, and thats before BB said they are stepping away from the consumer market. If they stop marketing in their strong developing markets, or even discontinue handsets there (only 4 BB10 handsets going forward) this will obviously happen even sooner.

We have no idea what the size of the BB10 market is yet, but it certainly seems less than 3 million a quarter, and that is without stopping marketing to consumers. If they plan only to sell direct to business we could be talking hundreds of thousands.

Or not...just sayin...so who do you write for?

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

the more reason to let somebody else have a go at it, it would only enhance BB10. and no sweat for BB, how on earth could that not be a positive for BB?

But my point was that nobody else is going to spend billions propping up a failed OS not how it would benefit BB - that is why even the failing android houses are sticking with android they can't finance everything else.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

[cjcampbell]

But my point was that nobody else is going to spend billions propping up a failed OS not how it would benefit BB - that is why even the failing android houses are sticking with android they can't finance everything else.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

I find it hard to consider an OS that's been on the market for 8 months a failed OS. I thought it would have picked up faster and better than it has but to call it failed is, in my opinion, a bit near sighted.

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

But my point was that nobody else is going to spend billions propping up a failed OS not how it would benefit BB - that is why even the failing android houses are sticking with android they can't finance everything else.

Sent from my XT890 using Tapatalk 4

Why do you keep used the term "failed" OS...it's not failed...have you tried it? It's really quite pleasant to use. The new OS is not eight months old yet...has received three carrier updates and many many leaks if one wants to go that route.

The only thing failing is their ability to market past the competing fanboy pessimism...hopefully their new strategy succeeds.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

Why do you keep used the term "failed" OS...it's not failed...have you tried it? It's really quite pleasant to use. The new OS is not eight months old yet...has received three carrier updates and many many leaks if one wants to go that route.

The only thing failing is their ability to market past the competing fanboy pessimism...hopefully their new strategy succeeds.

Posted via CB10

I have used it, I think it's very nice (I'd pick up a q10 when they get firesaled) but when I talk about 'failed' I'm talking into terms of the only thing that matters for stock price - units shifted.

[Shanerredflag]

I have used it, I think it's very nice (I'd pick up a q10 when they get firesaled) but when I talk about 'failed' I'm talking into terms of the only thing that matters for stock price - units shifted.

Glad you like it...it's really great with 10.2...wish they could have launched with that out of the gate. Which given the volume sold so far isn't far from reality going forward lol.

Posted via CB10

[Gesig Boek]

I have used it, I think it's very nice (I'd pick up a q10 when they get firesaled) but when I talk about 'failed' I'm talking into terms of the only thing that matters for stock price - units shifted.

I write for a Windows Phone site, so I know full well how much resources it takes to introduce a new OS against market resistance. BB does not have those resources.

From the low numbers in BB's PR it is clear they sold most of their BB10 handsets to the consumer market, and this is exactly the market they are abandoning.

[sidhuk]

I have no desire to change any one's opinion. I do not want to increase Mod's workload by quoting different opinions. Life is too short. Thank you CB for creating the ignore list.
Have a great Sunday.