[fin2007]

Shorts have little to gain at this point, they have already made a killing. I think the answer to your question is that the street doesn't believe in PW's offer and/or his ability to get it done. If they did they could make a quick 10-15% in a month or two, a real no brainer. The SP should be between $8.75-9.00. In fact, if they thought there was the possibility of another offer, it would be over $9. It.s not ,so my explanation, for better or worse is the only thing that sense to me here. Sad, but seemingly true.

Yes, at this point, it looks like so.

[silversun10]

Shorts have little to gain at this point, they have already made a killing. I think the answer to your question is that the street doesn't believe in PW's offer and/or his ability to get it done. If they did they could make a quick 10-15% in a month or two, a real no brainer. The SP should be between $8.75-9.00. In fact, if they thought there was the possibility of another offer, it would be over $9. It.s not ,so my explanation, for better or worse is the only thing that sense to me here. Sad, but seemingly true.

$8 is a better price for the shorts than $9, the shorters stand to lose $1 if we go back up to $9

[cgk]

Misek believes the consortium’s offer is genuine and offers the highest probability of success, but that the price is an issue:

We think that Prem is short about a billion, billion two of financing, primarily equity financing. So if he doesn’t get it he’s going to attempt to do a bridge, a six-month bank loan and then repay that bank loan with BlackBerry cash, that would his Plan B. His Plan C, we suspect, would be to reprice the deal at around $7 [per share] and he doesn’t need any bridge at all.“

https://businessincanada.com/2013/09...t-7-per-share/

[Gekko]

regarding the questions on BES10 installs - these are comments from a few months back -

Per BB, there are approx. that many evaluation installs of BES10, but that doesn't mean that anywhere close to that many are actually in the production environment. Many businesses (often one IT guy in a business) downloaded and installed it (free eval for a year) with no real intention of actually deploying it. BB has not shared any numbers of BES10 servers in production.

The hope was that people with BES7 servers would all move to BES10, to manage their BB10 devices along with iOS and Android (since most companies are either going BYOD, or having multiple device options), but it seems that most companies aren't moving to BB10 at all, and are just migrating from BB7 straight to iOS/Android.

BES10's only differentiating feature is being able to manage BB10 devices, so if a company isn't adopting BB10, there's no reason for them to use BES10 over a competing MDM software that manages iOS/Android just fine. That's why it was so critical to BBRY's success to do well with BB10 adoption: other lines of business are tied to BB10's success. Unfortunately, BB10 has fared poorly in the market so far, which means that expectations for BES10 can't be very high either.

"Tested" means someone downloaded BES10 and installed it on a server. That could be a Fortune 500 company doing an official evaluation, a single IT guy who did it on his own to evaluate for a future MDM proposal, or it could be a tech-savvy plumber in Racine, WI who bought a Z10 and wants to see if BES10 would be useful for his 10-person small business. There's no way to know. While it shows interest/curiosity, it certainly doesn't show REVENUE for BBRY.

What matters are paid accounts. BBRY hasn't given any numbers on those to anyone.

Those companies who are going to roll out BB10 devices are likely to be the majority of BES10 adopters, because they are the only ones for whom BES10 will have an advantage over other MDM products. Companies moving to iOS/Android only can (and likely will) use one of the market leader's MDM products instead. Why wouldn't they? In most cases, those other MDM companies focus solely on MDM, and don't have the BBRY stigma attached to them that comes with stock market losses, talks of take-overs, and other bad press.

BB10 devices have to sell well in order to sell BES10, and to date, they haven't.

[greggebhardt]

The shorts will be hanging around as there is still opportuntiy to make money.

[cgk]

Speaking of BES10 - anyone else read the "it's ok but no better than ok" article on the front page?

[fin2007]

The shorts will be hanging around as there is still opportuntiy to make money.

Maybe, but you could end like NOK short too, wake up on Monday, they see their shorts loss 40%(now is actually almost 70%, from $3.95 to $6.66).

I do not get it why shorts do not cover here, say even if PW took it at $7(at $7 he does not even need any outside fund), the downsize is limited.
But the upside is still unknown.

[kfh227]

https://businessincanada.com/2013/09...t-7-per-share/

He publicly stated that he will not change the offer price.

Posted via CB10

[Andrew4life]

Maybe, but you could end like NOK short too, wake up on Monday, they see their shorts loss 40%(now is actually almost 70%, from $3.95 to $6.66).

I do not get it why shorts do not cover here, say even if PW took it at $7(at $7 he does not even need any outside fund), the downsize is limited.
But the upside is still unknown.

Nokia isn't being bought out and also, the MSFT deal is binding upon shareholder approval. The BBRY deal however is not binding so you are taking the word of An investment firm.

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

Nokia isn't being bought out and also, the MSFT deal is binding upon shareholder approval. The BBRY deal however is not binding so you are taking the word of An investment firm.

Posted via CB10

I know, what I was trying to say is to be a BBRY short just like a NOK short, both companies sux and lost tons of money, but it does not mean you should short (or hold short) at this level.

Right before NOK news out on Monday, NOK stock price was closed at a 2 -months low on the previous Friday.

[fin2007]

He publicly stated that he will not change the offer price.

Posted via CB10

I do not believe he will change the price. the data is pretty much known last Friday and PW could actually knew this even before that.

And he can easily take the $9 back with selling the patents for $1B+ right after the takeover.

[danprown]

Yeah, I get that -- and I think 14,000 of the installs are in India as per the India chief -- but what I was unsure about is the revenue components under "BES." It seems there are a bit complicated (and so far require hardware and can't be done via the cloud) and again BBRY is going through resellers/partners... (which hopefully does not mirror their experience with their recent "great carrier partnerships").

regarding the questions on BES10 installs - these are comments from a few months back -

[kfh227]

I do not believe he will change the price. the data is pretty much known last Friday and PW could actually knew this even before that.

And he can easily take the $9 back with selling the patents for $1B+ right after the takeover.

I figure that he has the financing lined up via verbal agreements. He just needs to do the paperwork.

Posted via CB10

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

He publicly stated that he will not change the offer price.

Posted via CB10

"will not" is not the same as "we’re not in the business of offering a number and at the last minute changing the figure.”


Fairfax is in the business of making money for their investors, so if BB can be had for $8 or $7 he is going to be obligated to those shareholders to only pay that much. His obligations to BBRY shareholders have ended.

Do not assume or believe anything until a legal and binding document has been signed and filed!

[kfh227]

"will not" is not the same as "we�re not in the business of offering a number and at the last minute changing the figure.�


Fairfax is in the business of making money for their investors, so if BB can be had for $8 or $7 he is going to be obligated to those shareholders to only pay that much. His obligations to BBRY shareholders have ended.

Do not assume or believe anything until a legal and binding document has been signed and filed!

I disagree. I'll just leave it at that. Simple reason is that his job is to pay a fair price. Not to pay what the stock is trading at.

Posted via CB10

[chr1sny]

I disagree. I'll just leave it at that. Simple reason is that his job is to pay a fair price. Not to pay what the stock is trading at.

Posted via CB10

Why is his job to pay a fair price? He's on Fairfax's board not BlackBerry's. His only duty is to maximize Fairfax 's shareholders' return.

[Gekko]

Why is his job to pay a fair price? He's on Fairfax's board not BlackBerry's. His only duty is to maximize Fairfax 's shareholders' return.

exactly. he is breaching his fiduciary duty if he pays any more than he has to. his duty is to buy it for as cheap as he can.

[silversun10]

exactly. he is breaching his fiduciary duty if he pays any more than he has to. his duty is to buy it for as cheap as he can.

takes two to tango, he may want to pay $2, but it might not be for sale for that...do you think the BB share holders will approve $7?

[g120]

[QUOTE=Gekko;9248042]exactly. he is breaching his fiduciary duty if he pays any more than he has to. his duty is to buy it for as cheap as he can.[/QUOTE

I believe prem said he is not buying anymore bbry for Fairfax. I think members of the eventual consortium will purchase as much as they can on open market and the stubborn holdouts offered 9. Fairfax Is done buying.

[Gekko]

takes two to tango, he may want to pay $2, but it might not be for sale for that...do you think the BB share holders will approve $7?

Dynegy shareholders rejected offers of $4.50-$5.50 per share and ultimately ended up with pretty much nothing after the company declared bankruptcy.

the oxygen is slowly running out for BBRY shareholders and the ice is melting right underneath your feet. and don't think for a minute that these guys won't screw you and blow you out at $0.

------------

The fat lady has all but sung for Dynegy shareholders.

Dynegy has announced it is proposing a bankruptcy plan in which its existing shareholders would retain just 1% of the Dynegy shares plus five-year warrants to buy up to 13.5% of Dynegy. That package is what bankruptcy people call a “tip” to shareholders who, as frequently happens in bankruptcy, could otherwise be wiped out by the process.

If you read the fine print, it is even worse for the existing Dynegy stockholders. Those warrants will be exercisable on the basis of a $4 billion valuation of Dynegy. In other words, to buy that 13.5%, the warrant holders will need to come up with a total of $540 million in cash. That is equivalent to $4.39 per current share. Dynegy is currently trading under 50� per share.

And current stockholders could end up with even less. The plan announced by Dynegy proposes that holders of Dynegy’s $200 million in subordinated debt would retain nothing. Expect those subordinated debt holders to fight over letting the stockholders receive a “tip” while those debt holders walk away empty handed.

The outcome is not surprising, however, and could well be the best current management could do. Dynegy is deeply in debt and prior management had warned of bankruptcy a year ago. That is why that board was so anxious to sell the company for cash, starting with the $4.50 per share Blackstone deal and ending with a $5.50 tender offer from Carl Icahn. And why, when shareholders ignored their recommendations, they quit.

Dealpolitik: Can Dynegy Shareholders Stick a Fork in it? - Deal Journal - WSJ

[Superfly_FR]

Friday night OT with my daughter Australia pen pal
Paris is magic



Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

I do not believe he will change the price. the data is pretty much known last Friday and PW could actually knew this even before that.

And he can easily take the $9 back with selling the patents for $1B+ right after the takeover.

He needs the money to do the deal, not afterwards so selling things doesn't help him yet. If he needs 1-1.2 BILLION more, that is not all that easy to come by if the deal is skinny.

[bungaboy]

I wish the Mods would publish the IP addresses of these uncivil rude trolls.

[MasterMoe]

It is quite disheartening to see such a great thread filled with positive, intelligent, and enthusiastic investors get hijacked by one or two trolls. Just a reminder- if you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. Silence is golden

[BergerKing]

I wish the Mods would publish the IP addresses of these uncivil rude trolls.

Nah, that might sound good in theory, but could give us a bigger problem to deal with. They keep hamming, we keep banning. And the world still goes 'round. Send the reports, and ignore the troublemakers. Quoting them just makes the cleanup take longer.

By the way, while I'm still in, there's an item I must address. Veiling profanity is the same as actually posting it if one is attempting to bypass the filter. It needs to stop happening, as it is just as infractable as other offenses. It serves nothing good, and this may be like a club, but when you're getting a lot of attention due to the attacks, I will quote the late great Warren Oates from Blue Thunder.

'When you're walking on eggshells; Don't hop.'