[fin2007]

The best outcome I could think of is

1. a big US company like MSFT/GOOG bid for 10~12(5~6B), the bidder really does not lose much at this price with the cash/patents, less likely is Samsung.


2. Lenova buys the hardware/cash/patents/BB OS for about 4B, and a partner like IBM buy BES/subscriber/security network for 2B. I do not think US/Canada government would allow lenova takes all.

[Gekko]

The best outcome I could think of is

1. a big US company like MSFT/GOOG bid for 10~12(5~6B), the bidder really does not lose much at this price with the cash/patents, less likely is Samsung.


2. Lenova buys the hardware/cash/patents/BB OS for about 4B, and a partner like IBM buy BES/subscriber/security network for 2B. I do not think US/Canada government would allow lenova takes all.

i don't think anybody wants to swallow the whole thing. maybe just the scraps for cheap in the fire sale. pennies on the dollar from a desperate seller. or better yet buy the scraps real cheap after the bankruptcy. and if things continue as is bankruptcy is coming and they will blow up all the shareholders to $0.

[Gekko]

Bollinger bands are where it is at.

Posted via CB10

no i like when they mention the "cup and handle" formations here. it sounds so smart.

reminds me of this observation -

"You sound like a total airhead, barfing up mixed up half sentences from a corporate propaganda seminar put together with no brain, no original idea - whatsoever. BB CEO has proven to be a nobody - but even for him your letter must have been excruciating experience."

[danprown]

"We're sitting here, and I'm supposed to be the franchise player, and we're talking about HALO. I mean listen, we're sitting here talking about HALO, not BBRY, not BBRY, not BBRY, but we're talking about HALO. Not the BBRY that I go out there and die for and play every BBRY like it's my last but we're talking about HALO man. How silly is that?"

[take99]

maybe they were banned by an overzealous moderator prodded by overzealous fanboys and thus have no choice in order to participate in this discussion?

Or maybe they were just nasty people with no life who like to rub peoples noses in their poor choices? Yep its all the mods fault, just like bbry is all the shorts fault right?

[danprown]

Someone continues to short: Interactive Charts

[OMGitworks]

*OFF TOPIC*

Holy s*** look at $HALO go! Need more stocks like this one to cover up my BBRY losses

I've got half my BBRY losses back. Here's hoping......

[Gekko]

can you believe to this day i still have NEVER seen a BB10 device in the wild? and i live in a major top ten US city and i travel and have lots of business/tech savvy friends and acquaintances. i knew my eyes weren't lying and this was big trouble shortly into the launch and it was confirmed every day that went by. now perhaps i had the advantage of the perspective of being outside canada - where i'm guess you would see at least some BB10 devices in the wild - but this was a HUGE red flag for me. i never saw one, didn't know anyone that had one, and didn't know anybody who knew anybody that had one.

and for anyone to look at the Z10 and think it's a game changer vs. the competition is silly. and to look at the Q5 and Q10 - i mean look at them - they look like something from 2005 - let's be serious here. i've been wrong before but this outcome was all pretty obvious to me.

[take99]

Yes gekko you are right and sooo smart and we were so wrong and soooo foolish. Can we move on please? This is becoming the 'gekko supports EGO and everyone else should too' thread.

[Gekko]

Or maybe they were just nasty people with no life who like to rub peoples noses in their poor choices? Yep its all the mods fault, just like bbry is all the shorts fault right?

i think the fanboys got a little nasty so what's good for the goose is good for the gander, no? all in good fun in a heated discussion. the only difference is only the fanboys cry for bans.

[Gekko]

Yes gekko you are right and sooo smart and we were so wrong and soooo foolish. Can we move on please? This is becoming the 'gekko supports EGO and everyone else should too' thread.

i'm not that smart - but i'm smart enough to "know what i don't know" and i know that i'm not that smart. fyi - i have a stock i bought years ago - still down 50%. i keep it around as a reminder that i'm not that smart - don't buy individual or short stocks - and just index.

i'm curious what you guys were seeing vs. me. did you see a lot of BB10 devices in the wild post launch?

[phil17]

i'm not that smart - but i'm smart enough to "know what i don't know" and i know that i'm not that smart. fyi - i have a stock i bought years ago - still down 50%. i keep it around as a reminder that i'm not that smart - don't buy individual or short stocks - and just index.

i'm curious what you guys were seeing vs. me. did you see a lot of BB10 devices in the wild post launch?

I see quite a bit in Toronto but I know the sample same is skewed given i'm in the financial district. I have to say though it's hard to tell a Q10 or the legacy devices from a distance. I see more BB10 (z10) than I do Win phone but that may change with the lower cost models. pretty much every Win phone I've seen in the past were a co-worker (I work for msft), lol

[Komoto]

Gekko, your logic is flawed.

Fin, I think there are individual companies that may be interested in certain aspects of BlackBerry, but very few that will be interested in the whole thing.

I personally think BlackBerry can survive as is, but I think it probably should go private to help it.

The turnaround is working, just needs time.

Posted via CB10

[Gekko]

I see quite a bit in Toronto but I know the sample same is skewed given i'm in the financial district. I have to say though it's hard to tell a Q10 or the legacy devices from a distance. I see more BB10 (z10) than I do Win phone but that may change with the lower cost models. pretty much every Win phone I've seen in the past were a co-worker (I work for msft), lol

what would you say the smartphone breakdown is % of what you see today of BB10, BB-Older, iPhone, Android, etc in Toronto?

[fin2007]

i don't think anybody wants to swallow the whole thing. maybe just the scraps for cheap in the fire sale. pennies on the dollar from a desperate seller. or better yet buy the scraps real cheap after the bankruptcy. and if things continue as is bankruptcy is coming and they will blow up all the shareholders to $0.

You never know, with a $18(book value) price tag, I do not think others would be interested. (I mean if some company really wanted to make a bid before this quarter, it could not offer a price under its book value, right?)

But at a price of $11, you really have nothing to lose here. Even for google, it is not a bad fit, the security patent would definitely help Andriod system. with a $11 price tag, I am put a price tag of 1 Billion for all BBRY patents.

People really think bbry's patent means nothing? MSFT is charging every andriod phone 5 or more per unit right now for the patents, Samsung alone sold 60M andriod unit last qtr, that is 300M patent fee from one company in one quarter.

[Gekko]

You never know, with a $18(book value) price tag, I do not think others would be interested. (I mean if some company really wanted to make a bid before this quarter, it could not offer a price under its book value, right?)

But at a price of $11, you really have nothing to lose here. Even for google, it is not a bad fit, the security patent would definitely help Andriod system. with a $11 price tag, I am put a price tag of 1 Billion for all BBRY patents.

i guess it all comes down to - why does Google or Apple need BB? they already dominate consumer and enterprise and i don't see what BB brings to the table with a 2% and falling market share intellectual property. Apple and Google and Samsung are already beating BB silly without this magical intellectual property/magical patents.

[Komoto]

Fin, you should factor in something else, which is me looking on the more positive side.

Some companies would also be willing to pay premium to not let their competition get their hands on some of these assets, as they are strategic.

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

i guess it all comes down to - why does Google or Apple need BB? they already dominate consumer and enterprise and i don't see what BB brings to the table with a 2% and falling market share intellectual property. Apple and Google and Samsung are already beating BB silly without this magical intellectual property/magical patents.

MOT did not help google at all except its patent, and Google paid 12B.

Once again if you buy BBRY at $11, adding the extra cost say the total is 6B, minus the cash, it is like $3.5B.

With $3.5B, you get all the patents/subscriber/security network/BBM/BES, it could very much turn into a positive buy in the end. I mean, People really think the subscriber means nothing? many of them are government contracts which last for several years and could easily get prolonged.

[fin2007]

You never know, with a $18(book value) price tag, I do not think others would be interested. (I mean if some company really wanted to make a bid before this quarter, it could not offer a price under its book value, right?)

But at a price of $11, you really have nothing to lose here. Even for google, it is not a bad fit, the security patent would definitely help Andriod system. with a $11 price tag, I am put a price tag of 1 Billion for all BBRY patents.

People really think bbry's patent means nothing? MSFT is charging every andriod phone 5 or more per unit right now for the patents, Samsung alone sold 60M andriod unit last qtr, that is 300M patent fee from one company in one quarter.

with the 4500 headcount cut, if a big company acquire it and slash most of the remain admin/hr/finance depts, I do not see BBRY would lose any money.

[Gekko]

MOT did not help google at all except its patent, and Google paid 12B.

Once again if you buy BBRY at $11, adding the extra cost say the total is 6B, minus the cash, it is like $3.5B.

With $3.5B, you get all the patents/subscriber/security network/BBM/BES, it could very much turn into a positive buy in the end.

1. Motorola invented the cell phone. Google needed Motorola as a twofold insurance policy - A. to use in legal battle vs. Apple, B. to make their own phones if Samsung and/or other partners decided to go rogue.
2. Google may be regretting that purchase today in hindsight.
3. BB is no Motorola.
4. BB cash will quickly start to evaporate IMO due to operations and accounting karma.
5. shutting down BB will cost $2B+ IMO. See HP and Palm.

[heymaggie]

My guess is that bidding for the whole company isn't worth the trouble for any of the large tech companies because they would have to shut down or sell off all sorts of things. I mean, who wants to be in QNX if you're not into low-margin automotive and industrial? Who wants BBM if you've already got your own messaging platform that's not making any money? Who wants the handset business if you have to lay off a bunch of people and generate bad PR as you lay waste to a company town? The secure messaging business is a minefield depending on what country you are in but there's trouble if you're not Canadian.

I think they are going to let FF do the dirty work dismantling the company and just bid on the parts they want.

[fin2007]

1. Motorola invented the cell phone. Google needed Motorola as a twofold insurance policy - A. to use in legal battle vs. Apple, B. to make their own phones if Samsung and/or other partners decided to go rogue.
2. Google may be regretting that purchase today in hindsight.
3. BB is no Motorola.
4. BB cash will quickly start to evaporate IMO due to operations and accounting karma.
5. shutting down BB will cost $2B+ IMO. See HP and Palm.

do not agree with 4 and 5.
With the 4500 headcount cut, I do not believe BB would burn their cash much. Even if you look at this qtr, their cash burn was in bulding another 900M inventory.
5. why you need shutdown BB? BB7 phone still sells 3.5~4M unit per quarter. I do not get why you need shut it down?

I kind of agree with you Google overpaid MOT.

My point here is with a $3.5B price tag, I would say the subscriber number(70M) alone would be enough to get the money back, that is like $50 per user? or really? $50 per user? one year contract is more than that, right? Remember many of them are government/enterprise contracts which last for years. Someone posted a link US DoDjust renewed their contract with BBRY in the begin of this year for another 3 years. Even the subscriber drops half in the next two years, it still worth more than 3B by any calculation.

[the_sleuth]

Thanks for the website, I am always interested as to what investment tools people use. It's hard to keep up with all of the new websites. If anyone else has any other recommendations, please share. I think others will appreciate it.

I tend to use YCharts.com a lot.

Someone continues to short: Interactive Charts

[phil17]

what would you say the smartphone breakdown is % of what you see today of BB10, BB-Older, iPhone, Android, etc in Toronto?

Based on what I see in Toronto and on my commute I would put it as:

BB10: 15%
BB-Older: 30%
iPhone : 30%
Android: 25%

Obviously my daily exposures with the same group of commuting folks is not representative of Canada.

IMHO, the discussions on this forum has been great from both sides when thoughts are presented in a respectful manner. I do a lot of Co-op hires from Waterloo so visit the town frequently and it's sad to see the slow decline of BB.

Ultimately, as a Canadian, I am sad for the company and those that tried to make it work because I believe they just needed more time. It does the consumer no good to have limited selections if BB folds. I am in the minority here for sure but I feel that only BB10/Win 8 phones (with Office) are capable as a "business" phone for my needs.

As an investor, I've learned that nobody has a crystal ball. I "felt" that BB10 was great and posed for success but I may be wrong about the phone. The saga's not over though so i'm holding. I only invest money I can afford to lose so while it bother's me, like other's on this board, I've made up a portion of my loss through HALO already (which I sold @ $12 today and will buy back shortly) and I only have Morgan to thank for that.

I'm still down like $8K overall but that's really a drop in the bucket in the big picture. Pretty new to posting but have been reading this thread on a daily basis. folks here celebrate BB's success together and encourage other when BB fails. Hope it can continue in one form or another in a mature, civilized manner.

[Gekko]

Based on what I see in Toronto and on my commute I would put it as:

BB10: 15%
BB-Older: 30%
iPhone : 30%
Android: 25%.

wow that's interesting. BB at 45% in Toronto. i see -

~70% iPhone
~30% Android

i see no BB anymore and no Nokia/Windows. although my friend just bought a Nokia Lumia 520 (replaced an old Android). he's not very tech savvy and it was only $99 off contract and in his words - "it's good enough for me."