[cgk]

Not sure - I said a few pages ago, another sign that BBRY is getting out of hardware is that they will start to starve the hardside of marketing money and lo and behold:

I had the privilege of being invited to a BlackBerry Z30 UK Press Event yesterday. We got some hands-on time with the Z30 and there were lots of demos going on. As soon as you I got my hands on one, my first reaction was "Whoa, this thing is huge!" The Z30 is, as you know, the biggest BlackBerry device to date. There is some weight to it too. That said, browsing on the Z30 is a dream and with the OLED screen it's even sexier.

It was a small event with less than 30 people there but there was lots of hustle and bustle. There were people from BlackBerry making their way around the room answering questions everyone there. There were even some that wanted to pull away a guy who was giving a demo at out table to ask more questions. Needless to say there was some interest in the device.

They have pushed out the phone with no support to die in the cold - hopefully they limited the production to the minimum that they were contractually obligated to do.

BlackBerry Z30 goes on sale in the UK today | CrackBerry.com

[Shanerredflag]

Sorry to say this, but many of us are fed up with posts like the one below. Are you responsible for this post this morning?


With tens of thousand of small retail investors losing hundreds of millions of dollars, on a morning when the disaster that is BBRY stock pricing gets to the absolute worst point, with the stock trading below the 'floor' that you guys proclaimed, with the company in serious trouble, you see a single uptick at 10:00 a.m. and you post

"WE ARE GREEN!!!!!"

with a bunch of ridiculous smiley faces?

Tell me honestly. Is there not some part of you that recognizes how absurd this post was? Wait, don't tell me... you were just kidding right?

Well im sorry that you have no sense of humour....and thanks for forcing your belittling festering cess pools of negativity on the fine people here.

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

just did a quick analysis:

1. book value dropped to 16.22 per share, a $1.8 drop from previous Q, the $16.22 book value still includes a 941M inventories, not sure if it is already writedown, if not, then the book value would drop to ~$14.6. Even $14.6 is still way higher than the $9 bid price

2. Service revenue is $736M, comparing to $794 last qtr, a~8% drop,

3, BES software revenue is 80M, compareing to 60M last q, a 25% increase QoQ, that is great considering all the selling rumor.

I still, ,I do not get it how th company just worth $9?

Service and security work worth at least 2-3B here
BES software worth at least 0.5B here, if I put a price tag of 1B, it is still below typical software company's price/revenue.

The software/Service would easily add $5 on top of the book value.

Just checked the book value again:
Property, plant and equipment, net 2,119
Intangible assets, net 3,505
to be conservative, let's assume property to 1B and asset to 1.5B, a drop of 3B, then the book value drops to $9-$10 even writedown the current inventory to 0 again

Still I would put a price tag of $15 here.
,

[cgk]

It's the cost of the hardware exit that is the unknown I guess?

[Shanerredflag]

just did a quick analysis:

1. book value dropped to 16.22 per share, a $1.8 drop from previous Q, the $16.22 book value still includes a 941M inventories, not sure if it is already writedown, if not, then the book value would drop to ~$14.6. Even $14.6 is still way higher than the $9 bid price

2. Service revenue is $736M, comparing to $794 last qtr, a~8% drop,

3, BES software revenue is 80M, compareing to 60M last q, a 25% increase QoQ, that is great considering all the selling rumor.

I still, ,I do not get it how th company just worth $9?

Service and security work worth at least 2-3B here
BES software worth at least 0.5B here, if I put a price tag of 1B, it is still below typical software company's price/revenue.

The software/Service would easily add $5 on top of the book value.


,

You are correct....and this is why the bashing, belittling FUD spreading conspiring pack of jackels will be eating some humble pie.

Posted via CB10

[spiller]

And they still have phones shipped that are not being counted as revenue yet.

And some nice tax credits.

I agree this is cheap at 9 and MSFT or Samsung should start it off at $10 and start a bid war up to $12.

[silversun10]

It's the cost of the hardware exit that is the unknown I guess?

they are not getting out of it, hello?

[Shanerredflag]

I think we are a couple weeks away from any serious moves...big decisions won't be rushed.

Posted via CB10

[cgk]

they are not getting out of it, hello?

If you want to believe that, that is down to you and your investment strategy, I'm working on the basis from all the signs that hardware is over and we are now simply trying to run down inventory - I will be proven wrong if we ever seen a successor to a current phone launched - but we will not, the z30 is the end of the road for bb10.

If we do, I'll never post on this thread again - how is that for a deal?

So save this post and rub my nose in it if I get it wrong.

[silversun10]

If you want to believe that, that is down to you and your investment strategy, I'm working on the basis from all the signs that hardware is over and we are now simply trying to run down inventory - I will be proven wrong if we ever seen a successor to a current phone launched - but we will not, the z30 is the end of the road for bb10.

If we do, I'll never post on this thread again - how is that for a deal?

So save this post and rub my nose in it if I get it wrong.

you might as well leave now then, bye

[silversun10]

I think we are a couple weeks away from any serious moves...big decisions won't be rushed.

Posted via CB10

yes, just go to an ebay auction and find out when the action takes place

[cgk]

you might as well leave now then, bye

Look at the signs:

* massive inventory write down with another $900 million still on the books
* No marketing budget of any note for current hardware
* Complete failure of z10, likely failure of q5, q10
* Soft launch of z30
* Main Competent supplier taking a charge because they expect the relationship to end soon
* Cancellation of two planed phones leaving simply what was already produced
* shift in BES marketing to place less emphasis on BB10 handsets.

[imz]

Look at the signs:

* massive inventory write down with another $900 million still on the books
* No marketing budget of any note for current hardware
* Complete failure of z10, likely failure of q5, q10
* Soft launch of z30
* Main Competent supplier taking a charge because they expect the relationship to end soon
* Cancellation of two planed phones leaving simply what was already produced
* shift in BES marketing to place less emphasis on BB10 handsets.

^ Some fair points put forward. The current trajectory of BBRY does inidicate a hardware exit, theres nothing else out there that supports otherwise.

[silversun10]

Look at the signs:

* massive inventory write down with another $900 million still on the books
* No marketing budget of any note for current hardware
* Complete failure of z10, likely failure of q5, q10
* Soft launch of z30
* Main Competent supplier taking a charge because they expect the relationship to end soon
* Cancellation of two planed phones leaving simply what was already produced
* shift in BES marketing to place less emphasis on BB10 handsets.

BB is switching from banging their heads against the wall into guerilla marketing tactics, that is what i see.
and that is what BB says, so you maybe dreaming up stuff, but that is all that is.

[Shanerredflag]

Look at the signs:

* massive inventory write down with another $900 million still on the books
* No marketing budget of any note for current hardware
* Complete failure of z10, likely failure of q5, q10
* Soft launch of z30
* Main Competent supplier taking a charge because they expect the relationship to end soon
* Cancellation of two planed phones leaving simply what was already produced
* shift in BES marketing to place less emphasis on BB10 handsets.

I think their strategy with the write down is to get the Z10 into enterprise at a reduced cost (free)....with 10.2 the Z is a fantastic device and people will see that...makes sense to me anyway.

Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

Look at the signs:

* massive inventory write down with another $900 million still on the books
* No marketing budget of any note for current hardware
* Complete failure of z10, likely failure of q5, q10
* Soft launch of z30
* Main Competent supplier taking a charge because they expect the relationship to end soon
* Cancellation of two planed phones leaving simply what was already produced
* shift in BES marketing to place less emphasis on BB10 handsets.

they still sell 5M unit per qtr, even at a average cost of $200, that is $1B, so a 900M inventory is nothing.
BES to support Andiod/iPhone user could actually increase BES license a lot, BES revenue is up from 60M to 80M QoQ,

[tiziano27]

just did a quick analysis:

1. book value dropped to 16.22 per share, a $1.8 drop from previous Q, the $16.22 book value still includes a 941M inventories, not sure if it is already writedown, if not, then the book value would drop to ~$14.6. Even $14.6 is still way higher than the $9 bid price

2. Service revenue is $736M, comparing to $794 last qtr, a~8% drop,

3, BES software revenue is 80M, compareing to 60M last q, a 25% increase QoQ, that is great considering all the selling rumor.

I still, ,I do not get it how th company just worth $9?

Service and security work worth at least 2-3B here
BES software worth at least 0.5B here, if I put a price tag of 1B, it is still below typical software company's price/revenue.

The software/Service would easily add $5 on top of the book value.

Just checked the book value again:
Property, plant and equipment, net 2,119
Intangible assets, net 3,505
to be conservative, let's assume property to 1B and asset to 1.5B, a drop of 3B, then the book value drops to $9-$10 even writedown the current inventory to 0 again

Still I would put a price tag of $15 here.
,

BES, 5% of $1.6b includes Software and OTHER. If you compare Software and OTHER between the two quarters you get a 14% drop.

[the_sleuth]

Again I value your analysis. But the productive efforts do not generate the revenue expected then the firm trades as a distressed asset. Add to this distress, BB management not performing proper logistics management.

Last I checked, BBRY tangible book value was $11.23 (calculated by excluding intangible assets like goodwill). With these results, the tangible book value has dropped. (I don't have time to calculate now).

Nevertheless, Watsa is corporate raiding at small shareholder expense.

just did a quick analysis:

1. book value dropped to 16.22 per share, a $1.8 drop from previous Q, the $16.22 book value still includes a 941M inventories, not sure if it is already writedown, if not, then the book value would drop to ~$14.6. Even $14.6 is still way higher than the $9 bid price

2. Service revenue is $736M, comparing to $794 last qtr, a~8% drop,

3, BES software revenue is 80M, compareing to 60M last q, a 25% increase QoQ, that is great considering all the selling rumor.

[/B]I still, ,I do not get it how th company just worth $9?[/B]

Service and security work worth at least 2-3B here
BES software worth at least 0.5B here, if I put a price tag of 1B, it is still below typical software company's price/revenue.

The software/Service would easily add $5 on top of the book value.

Just checked the book value again:
Property, plant and equipment, net 2,119
Intangible assets, net 3,505
to be conservative, let's assume property to 1B and asset to 1.5B, a drop of 3B, then the book value drops to $9-$10 even writedown the current inventory to 0 again

Still I would put a price tag of $15 here.
,

[Komoto]

Yeah interesting.

Fin, we agree! Never thought I would say that. I am optimistic so I see the floor value at 15.

What they have done with the Rev recognition is almost kicked part of this quarter into next quarter, that is cheeky.

I have done accounting and if you change your methods you should clearly state plus give a comparison to last reporting period. Ie they should have said we have changed Rev recognition we sold 5.9 mil units.

If we had been using our old method it would have been x.x mil units. Where is the comparison. Sneaky. They have cooked the books. Moved expenses forward (write down) and moved Rev to next quarter (changing from shipped to sold).

I don't think anyone can argue that. BES10 seems to be gaining traction. Service Rev will get replaced by BES 10 cal as time goes on, I maintain this was always the plan.

I can't see them exiting hardware, Cgk. They will leave consumer market for sure, but I think it was always a mistake to try and get into. There are benefits to this though, cheaper marketing, less r and D etc.

Honestly I think they are doing all the right things. 2 years from now this company will be worth 40, if it carries on like this. I feel robbed! Grrrre

Posted via CB10

[tiziano27]

I think more information is needed.

-Service revenue q2 $736m, q1 $806, a 8.7% fall, no that bad. But Venezuela is a 9% effect.
Did Venezuela pay the q1 shipments and is included in q2 and now they are buying normally? That would be hiding a huge fall in service revenue.
Or Venezuela didn't pay the old shipments but is paying new shipments, in that case we should add $72m to q1 and the fall is 16%.
-Subscribers?

-Hardware revenue q2 $784, q1 $2201, a 64% fall.
-Units shipped q2 3.7m recognized, q1 6.8m.
-BB10 units shipped q2 ?, q1 2.7m.
How many units were shipped but not recognized?
From 3.7m most are BBOS but how much is 'most', 90%, 80%, 70%?
-Units sold through q2 5.9m, q1 6.8m. We don't know the % BB10 vs BBOS.
BIS business is falling fast or BB10 is a total failure?

-Even though they wrote down $934m of inventory they increased the inventory in $338m, probably another write down is coming. From this huge inventory investment you can conclude until q2 they were producing a lot of phones and hopefully now they stop it. But how much is the cost they have to pay to vendors, manufacturers and the cost of layoffs to stop production? $500m, $1b?

I would be nice if the company publish more information to explain why the accepted a $9 offer.

[unbreakablej]

Can they at least then erm... post some of those z10s to us shareholders? I could do with a few to pass to family and friends... might actually work better for the company that way.

Posted via CB10

[Shanerredflag]

GREEN....just for you bud!!!

Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

They could have have waited after the holiday season where they could unload more phones, then write down next quarter where the cost would be less. Someone explain to me why they suddenly change the way they account for phone sales? Just seem like the report was done to make price cheap for prem.

Posted via CB10

They can't wait 2 quarters to disclose material information, that would be illegal. They are also charged with reporting the numbers in a way that most accurately reflects their actual financial situation. I don't know enough on that issue to say why they did it.

I am really disheartened to see everyone throwing Prem under the bus. I didn't know about him prior to this thread and I even took stands against him here (saying he couldn't always be right in his investment choices) for which I was harshly criticized, but now the faithful seem quite willing to turn him from savior to the devil. I am not so sure....

[Andrew4life]

they still sell 5M unit per qtr, even at a average cost of $200, that is $1B, so a 900M inventory is nothing.
BES to support Andiod/iPhone user could actually increase BES license a lot, BES revenue is up from 60M to 80M QoQ,

It's a write down not a write off. Meaning they have say $2 billion in inventory but they think they can only sell it for $1 Billion now.


Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

Again I value your analysis. But the productive efforts do not generate the revenue expected then the firm trades as a distressed asset. Add to this distress, BB management not performing proper logistics management.

Last I checked, BBRY tangible book value was $11.23 (calculated by excluding intangible assets like goodwill). With these results, the tangible book value has dropped. (I don't have time to calculate now).

Nevertheless, Watsa is corporate raiding at small shareholder expense.

I am ok with your $11.2 book value.

But how the heck the subscriber/security network /BES server worth nothing?