[ADGrant]

That's one way of looking at it. I, however, like to think that this time around, I'd have better trading strategy. For eg: I plan to buy in-the-money calls this time, instead of way..way..way out of money calls like I bought for BlackBerry (purchased strike $35 when stock was trading <$14).

Sure, not diversifying is generally unwise but I think because my sum is small ($1,000) - I rather be aggressive in my investment (or calculated gamble). Once I get to $5,000 or so, I'd split the amount into two piles - 50/50. I'll open a separate trading account. One account, I will use for investing in speculative stocks, and the other account will only be used for investing in index-funds and safe/blue-chip stocks. Any additional principal I add, I'll split it equally in both accounts as well.

On the other hand, if I fail again (before reaching $5,000), I'd have (hopefully) learned another lesson and then I can just start-over with another seed of $1,000. Maybe I'd diversify this time, or maybe I'd re-adjust my trading strategy again. Who knows. I can't predict right now what lessons are still in-store for me! Maybe I'll get lucky and get to $5,000 without failing. At $5,000, I plan to include diversification as part of my investment strategy anyway.

I can predict right now what lessons are in store for you. It's true you have a better strategy than last time but to be honest, it would be hard to have a worse strategy than last time.

There have to be better things you can do with your $1,000. You could can buy a new laptop, a few tablets or a lot of beer.

[heymaggie]

Sorry, but "the management lied" or "management was incompetent" iisn't really an excuse for an investor. The competence and integrity of the management team is one of the main risks of any investment. If my financial advisor steered me into Bernie Madoff's funds based solely on his reputation and financial statements, I would still blame him and myself for accepting the excess returns without question.

The issue isn't why the Blackberry CEO would make such optimistic statements. Isn't that part of his job? The issue is why anyone would believe him in light of other evidence. Even if Blackberry said that cross-plaform BBM is coming this summer, if one looked at the size and complexity of the undertaking and the established competition, one had to seriously question if it would really happen. Just my experience with iMessage, and how long it took Apple to get it right, made me realize that there was no way that Blackberry could pull of cross-platform BBM that quickly.

When things go bad, the usual scapegoats on forums like this are: poor management, poor marketing, evil carriers, iSheep, sales people, etc. As people jump ship, the ones that are left will never admit that the products are the problem.

[fin2007]

This still does not make sense to me:

1. 2.6 Billion Cash.
2. let's say 1~2B for patent.
3. The service and security network had a revenue of ~800M each of the last two quarters, even it is dropping, it can still fetch 4-5Billions revenue easily in 2-years even considering the subscriber drops 10% QoQ(actually the number drops a total of 10% in the last 3 quarters), it should worth at least 2-3 Billion for companies like IBM/MSFT.

4. BES quarterly revenue is about ~60M, this area actually has some great potential, let's give it a value of 400M. (2X yearly revenue is actually every low value for a software company, most of the software company outside have a Value/revenue >5)

Just for the above 4 and use the lowest number,
2.6B cash + 1B patent + 2B serivce + 0.4B BES = 6B

it would worth easily 6B+ for a company like IBM/MSFT/GOOGLE, not considering BBRY has many other assets.

As for the hardware, it is not like BBRY does not sell any phones in a quarter, actually it can still easily sell 4-5M units a quarter, it does not need earn money from this area, just sell at the cost value is good enough.

With the current 10Q report, we will find more value.

[heymaggie]

The market is pricing in a significant cost to getting out of the handset business - shutting down stuff, laying off people, finishing out contracts at a loss, supporting aging hardware, Then, of course, you still have the inventory in the pipeline from parts you ordered months ago that is assembled into an expensive electronic paperweight because people tend to not want to buy your stuff if you are going to be out of the smartphone business. There are more write downs everywhere you look. HP couldn't wait to get it over with. They were shoving those Touchpads out the door for $100.

Blackberry may have an easier time of it because there will probably be businesses that will hand out old Blackberry phones for a long time- Windows XP style - but probably not BB10.

[m0de25]

Sorry, but "the management lied" or "management was incompetent" iisn't really an excuse for an investor. The competence and integrity of the management team is one of the main risks of any investment. If my financial advisor steered me into Bernie Madoff's funds based solely on his reputation and financial statements, I would still blame him and myself for accepting the excess returns without question.

The issue isn't why the Blackberry CEO would make such optimistic statements. Isn't that part of his job? The issue is why anyone would believe him in light of other evidence. Even if Blackberry said that cross-plaform BBM is coming this summer, if one looked at the size and complexity of the undertaking and the established competition, one had to seriously question if it would really happen. Just my experience with iMessage, and how long it took Apple to get it right, made me realize that there was no way that Blackberry could pull of cross-platform BBM that quickly.

When things go bad, the usual scapegoats on forums like this are: poor management, poor marketing, evil carriers, iSheep, sales people, etc. As people jump ship, the ones that are left will never admit that the products are the problem.

There's a fine line between projecting optimism and lies. Also, I can't think of one single thing the team did right (honestly, right from the embarrassing cutting of "Crackberry Kevin's" ponytail at the crucial launch, right down to to this latest xBBM fiasco), so this goes waaaay beyond a certain tolerance of mismanagement I factored in when investing in BBRY.

.. Still, I blame myself for being seduced by the huge run up to the end of January.

[fin2007]

Something that has really been weighing on me is Blackberry�s relationship with governmental agencies throughout the world, more specifically the US Federal Government. If Blackberry was really �on its way out�, I feel we would be hearing a lot more about change in government contracts etc. It is a question of national security; I feel the US government has been in contact with Blackberry throughout this entire fiasco. In a government agency it is necessary to ensure the lifespan of the company. They should be questioning whether it will still be maintained up to current standards for a specific amount of time, etc.

A quote from an article published just a few hours ago�

�Agencies tend to sign long-term handset contracts � sometimes for three or more years � and many government offices have renewed their commitments to BlackBerry this year. That means federal agencies such as the State Department and Drug Enforcement Administration will be handing out BlackBerry devices for years, analysts say.�

BlackBerry still reigns in Washington

Trevor

exactly, that is why BB subscriber number does not really drop that much, actually in the last 3 quarters, it only drops about 10%,

If the subscriber/security network fall in the hand of companies like IBM/MSFT/GOOGEL, they can easily fetch 5B revenue in 2-3 years with a 60%+ margin.

[fin2007]

The market is pricing in a significant cost to getting out of the handset business - shutting down stuff, laying off people, finishing out contracts at a loss, supporting aging hardware, Then, of course, you still have the inventory in the pipeline from parts you ordered months ago that is assembled into an expensive electronic paperweight because people tend to not want to buy your stuff if you are going to be out of the smartphone business. There are more write downs everywhere you look. HP couldn't wait to get it over with. They were shoving those Touchpads out the door for $100.

Blackberry may have an easier time of it because there will probably be businesses that will hand out old Blackberry phones for a long time- Windows XP style - but probably not BB10.

If you sell bb pone at the cost price, it would easily sell 5M+ phones a quarter once the company stabilizes or acquired by a big company.

[heymaggie]

If you sell bb pone at the cost price, it would easily sell 5M+ phones a quarter once the company stabilizes or acquired by a big company.

The entire company didn't make any money last quarter and you're going to reduce the gross margins on the products to zero and trash your brand by having the phones show up on Woot every other week and expect that to stabilize the company financially? The best you can hope for is a larger company buys you for the customers and shuts everything down anyway. With Blackberry, it's an expensive proposition and you still have the Canadian government to deal with hence the lack of interest and share price to reflect it.

I bought some shares today because I think that Prem will buy for $8.50 or $9 in order to auction off the parts as soon as possible. I'm sure you will see your $99 off-contract Blackberries all over the place and I'm sure they will sell in the millions.

[fin2007]

The entire company didn't make any money last quarter and you're going to reduce the gross margins on the products to zero and trash your brand by having the phones show up on Woot every other week and expect that to stabilize the company financially? The best you can hope for is a larger company buys you for the customers and shuts everything down anyway. With Blackberry, it's an expensive proposition and you still have the Canadian government to deal with hence the lack of interest and share price to reflect it.

I bought some shares today because I think that Prem will buy for $8.50 or $9 in order to auction off the parts as soon as possible. I'm sure you will see your $99 off-contract Blackberries all over the place and I'm sure they will sell in the millions.

It did not make money because it had too many headcounts. Check the Q1 10Q, the employee headcount cost is $1B, if bbry is bought by a big company, it can easily cut more than half and drop the cost by $500M a qtr or more, the current Q's actually loss is about 250M.

[the_sleuth]

Your analysis has value. I am sure the mentioned companies have an army of financial quants / advisors crunching the numbers just like Watsa's team.

The numbers cannot factor execution risk of turn around. GOOG, MSFT, or IBM will allow, probably, Watsa's new management perform the heavy lifting. Then one of them will buy the new and slim BB before the next IPO.

Just a thought....

This still does not make sense to me:

1. 2.6 Billion Cash.
2. let's say 1~2B for patent.
3. The service and security network had a revenue of ~800M each of the last two quarters, even it is dropping, it can still fetch 4-5Billions revenue easily in 2-years even considering the subscriber drops 10% QoQ(actually the number drops a total of 10% in the last 3 quarters), it should worth at least 2-3 Billion for companies like IBM/MSFT.

4. BES quarterly revenue is about ~60M, this area actually has some great potential, let's give it a value of 400M. (2X yearly revenue is actually every low value for a software company, most of the software company outside have a Value/revenue >5)

Just for the above 4 and use the lowest number,
2.6B cash + 1B patent + 2B serivce + 0.4B BES = 6B

it would worth easily 6B+ for a company like IBM/MSFT/GOOGLE, not considering BBRY has many other assets.

As for the hardware, it is not like BBRY does not sell any phones in a quarter, actually it can still easily sell 4-5M units a quarter, it does not need earn money from this area, just sell at the cost value is good enough.

With the current 10Q report, we will find more value.

[dusdal]

...sorry original message was just a ****-take, carry on.

[fin2007]

Your analysis has value. I am sure the mentioned companies have an army of financial quants / advisors crunching the numbers just like Watsa's team.

The numbers cannot factor execution risk of turn around. GOOG, MSFT, or IBM will allow, probably, Watsa's new management perform the heavy lifting. Then one of them will buy the new and slim BB before the next IPO.

Just a thought....

You do not need a turnaround here. cash/patent is there, to be honest, the patent worth at least 2B(though I only count it as 1B to be conservative)

Check this: Microsoft Demands Samsung Pay $15 Royalties For Every Android Phone It Sells
For each Andriod phone sold, Microsoft gets $5 or more, for patent fee alone, Microsoft gets 500M+ a quarter,2B+ a year.

As for subscriber, actually most of them are from enterprise and government, (I do not believe individual would like pay extra fee for bbry), the contracts to enterprise and government are usually multiple years long. And actually if the buyer is a big US company like MSFT/IBM, I see the government contract could prelong many many years, that is like free money to collect.

The only risk is the hardware side, but it is not like BBRY stops selling any phones, and actually the buyer could sell the components contract to some other phone makers(say lenova) with a 15% discount if they really do not want to sell any bb phone. let's suppose the component obligation is 5B, 5B*15% is 750M loss at most

[Komoto]

First of all I don't agree with diversifying a portfolio, but that is because of unique circumstances and I don't want to take this off topic. What it boils down to is what is good for you.

Secondly, I still don't think I was wrong to invest in the company when I did. I still see value there. There are assets as the other poster pointed out.

Secondly number crunchers can factor in execution risk, it requires experience of the industry, but I do it all the time for new projects I take on in my business.

There is a lot of pessimism around and I think it is only natural. People should what they feel comfortable with. Constantly Re evaluate your position.

Posted via CB10

[W Hoa]

Disclaimer
Please take the following under advisement. Do your own due diligence. This is not a recommendation to purchase or sell BBRY. I currently have no position in BBRY shares and offer this information as part of the discourse only. I, or my family, may take a position in BBRY in the next 72 hours.

Prem Watsa has a message for those skeptical of his ability to pull off a takeover of BlackBerry Ltd.: Don’t underestimate him.

The CEO of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. says his company has plenty of potential partners – so many that he believes the equity part of the $4.7-billion (U.S.) offer will be oversubscribed.

“We’ve got more than we need,” Mr. Watsa said in an interview Thursday. “We’ve got a lot of interest in it.”

Watsa insists Fairfax has strong backing for BlackBerry buyout - The Globe and Mail

[fin2007]

First of all I don't agree with diversifying a portfolio, but that is because of unique circumstances and I don't want to take this off topic. What it boils down to is what is good for you.

Secondly, I still don't think I was wrong to invest in the company when I did. I still see value there. There are assets as the other poster pointed out.

Secondly number crunchers can factor in execution risk, it requires experience of the industry, but I do it all the time for new projects I take on in my business.

There is a lot of pessimism around and I think it is only natural. People should what they feel comfortable with. Constantly Re evaluate your position.

Posted via CB10

When some BB fans here talked how much QNX/BBM worth, I stopped saying they were pumping and too delusional.

But yes Bbry definitely has values and more than the 4.7B PW offered. People say bbry hardware is worthless, but if you check back, Nokia lost way more money on selling phones than BBRY in the last 2 years, and MSFT still paid NOK hardware 5B for the hardware dept.

Here we assume bbry hardware has zero value, still we can easily tell BBRY would worth 7-8B.

[tdovey]

exactly, that is why BB subscriber number does not really drop that much, actually in the last 3 quarters, it only drops about 10%,

If the subscriber/security network fall in the hand of companies like IBM/MSFT/GOOGEL, they can easily fetch 5B revenue in 2-3 years with a 60%+ margin.

Good point with subscriber numbers, this SECURE network will be sold to a North American company if not taken private. The OS and hardware on the other is up for grabs. JMO.

Trevor

[Superfly_FR]

Now I'm fed up with moralist and lessons teller. Enough. We got your point ; it's your turn to read what's written on the wall in capital letters.

YOO MAY BE RIGHT BUT WE DONT CARE.
STOP REHASHING YOUR PROPAGANDA AND MORALE. WE ARE BIG KIDS NOW.

Thank you and have a nice day.

Posted via CB10

[Kid Vibe]

So... Halloween next month. I'm going as a Vampire...

[mset]

Now I'm fed up with moralist and lessons teller. Enough.

Sorry to say this, but many of us are fed up with posts like the one below. Are you responsible for this post this morning?

oh, yeah; almost forgot ... WE ARE GREEN ! !

With tens of thousand of small retail investors losing hundreds of millions of dollars, on a morning when the disaster that is BBRY stock pricing gets to the absolute worst point, with the stock trading below the 'floor' that you guys proclaimed, with the company in serious trouble, you see a single uptick at 10:00 a.m. and you post

"WE ARE GREEN!!!!!"

with a bunch of ridiculous smiley faces?

Tell me honestly. Is there not some part of you that recognizes how absurd this post was? Wait, don't tell me... you were just kidding right?

[cgk]

So - anyone expecting any more surprises this morning when we get the press release?

[Komoto]

Fin,

Exactly my point. I am a realist. Something may be valuable, but how much of that value will be realised is another question.

I invested because I saw the value. There are other variables in play which can completely skew this. When you are talking about large sums, government agencies, heads of state, then it is no longer just financial.

I knew these risks were there, if you followed my posts from the beginning.

There are some big boys involved in this deal.

To summaries my thoughts:

Old BlackBerry Business model damaged
New not such problem (I do believe they can turn it around)
Value of assets in company are really not linked to the failure to execute, so I see value.
Political risk is heavy especially with CDN government able to block.
If this was a normal business I don't think we would be having these issues.

Posted via CB10

[Branta]

So - anyone expecting any more surprises this morning when we get the press release?

We may have some unwelcome surprises for the trolls and thread disrupters if they play their usual game. Patience with them is pretty much worn out and all the mods can find better use for their time than cleaning up another forum fight or off-topic excursion. A few high profile bans usually on a Friday usually gets us a quiet weekend .

[cgk]

We may have some unwelcome surprises for the trolls and thread disrupters if they play their usual game. Patience with them is pretty much worn out and all the mods can find better use for their time than cleaning up another forum fight or off-topic excursion. A few high profile bans usually on a Friday usually gets us a quiet weekend .

It's my anniversary so I might have to miss that one. :-)

[Chris2J]

Sorry to say this, but many of us are fed up with posts like the one below. Are you responsible for this post this morning?


With tens of thousand of small retail investors losing hundreds of millions of dollars, on a morning when the disaster that is BBRY stock pricing gets to the absolute worst point, with the stock trading below the 'floor' that you guys proclaimed, with the company in serious trouble, you see a single uptick at 10:00 a.m. and you post

"WE ARE GREEN!!!!!"

with a bunch of ridiculous smiley faces?

Tell me honestly. Is there not some part of you that recognizes how absurd this post was? Wait, don't tell me... you were just kidding right?

yes, he opened a thread named "i-support-blackberry-i-buy-shares" so everybody who joins this thread can predict:
a) He is invested
b) BB-supporter
People who try to blame others for their desicion should ask themselves who pressed the buy-button.
You can easily make your own opinion by researching in the web without reading what people post in this thread.
I bet people like you appriciated the post/data here until stock tanked. If you would have taken profit, you would just post the opposite.
Again, people posting on this thread thought BB could turn things round and exchanged data/experiences.
States like "we are green" should be classified correctly. If people are not able to separate ironic statements from other ones should not invest in risky things.
Everybody knew that investing in BB is risky, so please quit blaming people for things others have done on their own.
You know what? We are red in germany this morning....

[unbreakablej]

I'm prepared to lose my $100k now...
Prob more I bought too much... depressed but.... this thread does give some emotional support!

Posted via CB10