[johnyblaze]

OFF-TOPIC
This is the first time I ever purchased stocks and (like a fool) I went ahead and purchased OPTIONS instead. Strike 35, Expiring Jan 2014. Well, I've now lost 100% of my investment. BlackBerry was already high-risk/high-reward stock and I made the risk even larger by doing options, instead of stocks

Anyway -- for those who are LEAVING this thread, I've created a BBM channel - C00121DBA - check it out. Let's keep in touch and share knowledge and tips.

In fact, my plan is --- now that I've lost 100% of my investment :'( I think the best thing I can do is to take it in stride and move onwards by starting a brand-new portfolio with $1,000 . Well, I already started it couple of days ago. I have now purchased (options) for HALO expiring in March 2014. My strike price is $11 .

By the way, 100% of my investment was ALL my savings from last 3 years of work etc. So, it'd take a a lot of trades to grow my $1000 big enough to recoup BBRY losses; and who knows how many (more) times I am going to stumble and fail again though. But I guess that's part of learning. Fortunately, I've no dependents so I guess it's much easier for me to risk my my life-savings, start over and over!

On my BBM Channel (C00121DBA) - I'll post regular updates on how my $1,000 portfolio is doing and I'd encourage anyone who is interested to share their updates/thoughts as well.

Attachment 205386

Cheers,
Chrys

Dude, no offence but its highly unwise to gamble on stocks with your savings like that for anyone, but considering you are a beginner its completely suicidal!

Sent from my ALCATEL_one_touch_995 using CB Forums mobile app

[Komoto]

OFF-TOPIC:

Kid Vibe sorry to hear that you are out. Everyone must do what they have to.

On a positive note, i like the music, mind if i use it in some of my mixes? Not a big fan of the video (I guess sex sells), i always preferred videos of people dancing having fun in a club or something or some nice landscapes or space. Are you on beatport or somewhere i can buy? Do you have mastered songs? i hope we all stay in touch.

We are in a similar situation, similar age and i put all my savings in this. Look on the bright side if it goes to 0 at least you salvaged some of your money!

I'm sure just like me you have learnt many lessons and like many people say you have a long future ahead of you to recoup. I speak to many successful business and i have not met one of them that didn't take at least one big bath in the life time (almost losing everything).

I personally am staying in this until the end, but i think that is partly because i may have some screws loose

As for the naysayers. Everyone in this thread made their own decisions, no one is to blame here for individual losses. No one forced anyone to buy, sell or even trade and i think we are all aware of that.

For those of you that are out, i hope we still see you every now and again, or perhaps over at money culture.

The tale is far from over. I think we can all agree it has been an interesting year for BBRY! Let's see how this plays out

[Komoto]

ON TOPIC:

After last night's announcement have had more thoughts.

The more i look at it, Prem probably wants the company to go private, this is not an attempt to get higher bidders in.

This is why they released the bad news to drop the price so he can get in the 9 dollar offer.

He is not stupid and knows that half of the turn around is under way. BBM is about to launch, enterprises have started to bite on BES10 and phone sales will follow suit (not high volume), but enough to tick over, they have also done a large amount of the restructuring (staff etc).

I am sure he has enough swing in Canada to block potential takeovers from foregn companies, through various different methods, putting the road blocks on due to the law about foreign takeovers.

Also why would prem partner up now for financing the deal with these other companies, as i dont think cash is an issue? it would make more sense to take the whole thing at a steal price and then sell off or license after once he has control and will benefit the most.

I think Prem can also see that the chances of failure to turn around are higher if they remain public because of the media and having to appease shareholders short term.

So put in the offer, delay good news (one of the reasons conference call has been cancelled). This way no one can claim they lied to shareholders as they will simply present the figures (which we all know can be made to look good or bad), so slant it on the worse side to fend off potentially higher bids.

No other offers will come in, company will go private. Two options after, split up and sell off assets for instant ROI or hold together, partner up and rebuild looking to relist 2 or 3 years from now after turnaround is complete. I think second scenario is the most likely and makes more sense, plus potentially greater rewards.

Looking at it like this, i can see it is the best for the company and the product. The problem is us shareholders who got in expecting to hold for another two years to get that value have got the raw end of the deal! i guess that was always the risk. I think i should probably be looking at 9 dollars.

I hope i am wrong and this all transpires differently. Thoughts

[Kid Vibe]

ON TOPIC:

After last night's announcement have had more thoughts.

The more i look at it, Prem probably wants the company to go private, this is not an attempt to get higher bidders in.

This is why they released the bad news to drop the price so he can get in the 9 dollar offer.

He is not stupid and knows that half of the turn around is under way. BBM is about to launch, enterprises have started to bite on BES10 and phone sales will follow suit (not high volume), but enough to tick over, they have also done a large amount of the restructuring (staff etc).

I am sure he has enough swing in Canada to block potential takeovers from foregn companies, through various different methods, putting the road blocks on due to the law about foreign takeovers.

Also why would prem partner up now for financing the deal with these other companies, as i dont think cash is an issue? it would make more sense to take the whole thing at a steal price and then sell off or license after once he has control and will benefit the most.

I think Prem can also see that the chances of failure to turn around are higher if they remain public because of the media and having to appease shareholders short term.

So put in the offer, delay good news (one of the reasons conference call has been cancelled). This way no one can claim they lied to shareholders as they will simply present the figures (which we all know can be made to look good or bad), so slant it on the worse side to fend off potentially higher bids.

No other offers will come in, company will go private. Two options after, split up and sell off assets for instant ROI or hold together, partner up and rebuild looking to relist 2 or 3 years from now after turnaround is complete. I think second scenario is the most likely and makes more sense, plus potentially greater rewards.

Looking at it like this, i can see it is the best for the company and the product. The problem is us shareholders who got in expecting to hold for another two years to get that value have got the raw end of the deal! i guess that was always the risk. I think i should probably be looking at 9 dollars.

I hope i am wrong and this all transpires differently. Thoughts

I agree with what you have said. I am not sure if foreign companies will be able to bypass the CDN Government... That was one of the reasons I exited recently and why I most likely won't enter back in. Right now, its a guessing game. I am sure Lenovo is highly interested but whether or not they can get a bid going is anyone's guess. I am tempted to get back in if it is under 9 just so Prem can atleast get his buyout price... But I still am uncertain about this... What if shareholders vote no, what if Prem lowers (he said he wouldn't though)... Too big of what ifs for me at the moment. Also personally, I can't see a high bid that rolls into 12 and up... but you never know, anything is possible. Although I no longer own shares, I'm going to watch and see how this thing plays out, its quite interesting.

Sent you a PM too.

[greggebhardt]

The would have exactly two choices in such a case. Yay, or nay.

There is a point when the "nay" option means bankruptcy.

And now there will be no ER?

No problem, they are not hiding anything.

[OMGitworks]

On the contrary. People have been posting that T-Mobile was removing BlackBerry entirely from its stores. They will continue to put BlackBerrys on the shelf and "if inventory is not available in the store, the device can be ordered."

How many people are going to wait for a phone to be shipped to them. Not many. How many salespeople will let you leave the store without a new phone?

Posted via CB10

[OMGitworks]

Take it FWIW but right now CNBC is running 3 BBRY snippets in a row on the bottom of the ticker. BBRY cancels Cc, PW confident he can get financing, T-MOBILE no longer stocking BlackBerry devices in stores. Hopefully the PW statement stabilizes the SP this morning.

Posted via CB10

[njblackberry]

He isn't willing to put anymore of his money into it.
He is laying off the risk
He needs to find some investors (read: suckers) since he obviously doesn't put more into this Money Pit for himself and his investors.
Maybe some of the local pundits here can help him out.

Highly Confident - anyone remember Michael Milken and his Junk Bonds. He issued Highly Confident letters also.

There will be an Earnings Report released at 7AM Friday, just no follow up call so analysts can ask things like "how many Z10s were sold" and "how many total subscribers did BBRY lose in the last quarter". You know, tough questions.

[silversun10]

There is a point when the "nay" option means bankruptcy.

And now there will be no ER?

No problem, they are not hiding anything.

No, they cancelled the Conference Call, the earnings report will come out.
They are just not going to talk about.
Anyways, what is Heins supposed to say about future plans when they will have new owners shortly?

[the_sleuth]

From today's Toronto Star:

By: Katia Dmitrieva and, Jodi Xu Bloomberg, Published on Wed Sep 25 2013

TORONTO/NEW YORK—Two of Canada’s largest pension funds have held preliminary discussions with Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. about its bid for BlackBerry Ltd., yet are holding off from the effort because they only want pieces of the smartphone maker, two people familiar with the talks said.
The Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan and the Alberta Investment Management Corp., which together manage about $198 billion, are targeting BlackBerry’s secure server network and other business units, the people said. The funds negotiating with Fairfax aren’t interested in backing a bid for the whole company and haven’t joined the bidding consortium yet, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.
Fairfax, the largest shareholder of BlackBerry, announced Sept. 23 it was leading a group of investors planning a buyout of the money-losing smartphone maker. Fairfax Chief Executive Officer Prem Watsa declined to name the investors in the group, saying it had a strong Canadian component.
That points to Canadian pension funds such as Ontario Teachers’ and AIMCo, as the Edmonton, Alberta-based fund is known, said Kevin Stadtler, president of Stadtler Capital Management LLC in Texas. Other funds including Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, the largest pension manager with $188.9 billion under administration, and Caisse de Depot et Placement du Quebec, the second-largest, have said in the past six weeks that they would look at BlackBerry.
“There is a fairly big financing risk if the Canadian pension funds are not involved,” said Greg Taylor, a portfolio manager at Aurion Capital Management in Toronto that has about $7 billion in assets and doesn’t own BlackBerry. “The problem is the core business has eroded so quickly that it’s hard to make a case this is a good stable business that would fit their liabilities.”
Deborah Allan, spokeswoman for Ontario Teachers’, declined to comment as did Denes Nemeth, spokesman for AIMCo, Linda Sims at Canada Pension, Jean-Benoit Houde at Caisse de Depot, and Lisette Kwong at BlackBerry.
BlackBerry fell for a second day on concern that Watsa may fail to win support for his $9 a share cash bid. Fairfax has agreed to put up its 10 per cent stake in BlackBerry for the offer, and needs to find equity and debt investors for the rest.
“As more details, or lack thereof, emerge about the Fairfax takeover deal, the chances of the deal going through appear grimmer,” Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. analyst Pierre Ferragu wrote in a research note Wednesday. Bernstein rates BlackBerry “underperform.”
BlackBerry’s assets are probably worth about $2.8 billion (U.S.) excluding its cash reserves of $2.6 billion, said Steven Li, an analyst at Raymond James Ltd. in Toronto in a note to clients. That includes patents worth about $1.6 billion, its network of secure servers that may fetch $825 million and licenses worth about $400 million, said Li.
While revenue the Waterloo, Ontario-based device maker gets from subscriber services fees generated $794 million in the fiscal first quarter, that’s come under pressure from carriers no longer willing to pass those charges on to their subscribers. As of June, the company had 72 million subscribers, down from 76 million in the previous three months. BlackBerry didn’t provide a figure for last quarter.
“I think that’s probably the only way it will work—if they try to team up to buy part of the portfolio,” Taylor said in a phone interview yesterday. “No one wants to run the hardware business.”
Watsa, who models his investment style after billionaire investor Warren Buffett, said the group is still seeking financing for the offer, which will be subject to due diligence and further negotiation.
BlackBerry holds long-term value, particularly as it moves away from a focus on lower-margin consumer handsets to a focus on corporate customers, which offer higher margins, Paul Rivett, president of Fairfax, said in a Sept. 23 phone interview. Rivett didn’t immediately return a phone call and e-mail seeking comment today.
“It would be best if it were three companies: intellectual property, BlackBerry messenger and the services business,” Stadtler said in a phone interview yesterday from Fort Worth, Texas. “To maximize the value for the pension funds, you make those three different businesses.”
Of the Canadian pension managers, Toronto-based Ontario Teachers’ held the most BlackBerry stock, with 1.97 million shares at June 30 worth $17.3 million yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Ontario Teachers’ is Canada’s third- largest pension fund; Alberta Investment ranks fifth by assets.
Ontario Teachers’ has made technology investments in the past. In June 2012, it was part of a group with BCE Inc., the country’s largest telecommunications operator, to acquire data- center operator Q9 Networks Inc. for $1.1 billion. Canada Pension has also invested in technology companies, including more than tripling a $300 million investment in Skype Technologies SA in two years before selling the stake in 2011 to Microsoft Corp. The Toronto-based fund manager had invested in Skype with private-equity firms including Silver Lake Management LLC.
“There is an element of nationalism and pride, but at the end of the day it’s not really material,” said Stadtler, who doesn’t own BlackBerry shares. “What’s material is: Are they buying an asset at a low price that would benefit their constituents that they manage money for? They do things to make money, and that’s their only focus.”

http://www.thestar.com/business/tech...ces.print.html

[silversun10]

How many people are going to wait for a phone to be shipped to them. Not many. How many salespeople will let you leave the store without a new phone?

Posted via CB10

about the same amount that were buyers now. not many.
the difference is they stop pretending and they stop spending money on marketing to retail customers.
of course that does not guarantee sales to corporate, but it does make sense to me.

[heymaggie]

In all of this acquisition discussion the only entity that has expressed an interest in the whole company is the guy who does not have the financing to do it.

[cjcampbell]

about the same amount that were buyers now. not many.
the difference is they stop pretending and they stop spending money on marketing to retail customers.
of course that does not guarantee sales to corporate, but it does make sense to me.

And, to add a little hopium..lol... if, and it's a big if, they can get a lot of phones into corporate hands as a daily driver, it could start to become popular among coworkers, family, and friends. Sort of how they started. Start there and spread as the product sells itself. Eventually consumers will want it once again. It's a long process but not impossible.

[Gekko]

per the analyst in the article -

1. Cash = $2.6B
2. Patents = $1.6B
3. Server Network = $825m
4. Licences = $400m

it seems reasonable. but -

1. Cash - you have to account for the BURN and you have to account for how much will it cost to shut operations down? as i've said before it cost HP at least $1.7B to shut down PALM in addition to what they paid for the company.
2. Patents - i'm not sure how much these "magical" patents are worth given that Apple and Google are beating BB silly without these magical patents. haven't times changed? aren't these glorified pager patents somewhat antiquated in 2013? Palm launched a smartphone long before BB did (Palm/Handspring Treo 180).
3. Server Network - again, antiquated in 2013?
4. Licenses = not sure exactly what this is.

obviously there is some value here, the question is how much does someone need it and what are they willing to pay for it? does any of this technology help an Apple or Google compete today and in the future? i don't see it.

[cgk]

And, to add a little hopium..lol... if, and it's a big if, they can get a lot of phones into corporate hands as a daily driver, it could start to become popular among coworkers, family, and friends. Sort of how they started. Start there and spread as the product sells itself. Eventually consumers will want it once again. It's a long process but not impossible.

Forget it - hardware is over, they might empty the warehouses to boost enterprise adoption but that side of the company is done. The only question let for the potential of a new bbry is as an agnostic services company - watch the PR going forward it will spend more and more time on the capabilities of bbry to manage other OSes.

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk 4

[silversun10]

And, to add a little hopium..lol... if, and it's a big if, they can get a lot of phones into corporate hands as a daily driver, it could start to become popular among coworkers, family, and friends. Sort of how they started. Start there and spread as the product sells itself. Eventually consumers will want it once again. It's a long process but not impossible.

yeah, you can't force people to like a new phone they don't even know, let alone make em buy the phone. all that within 3 months.

[Gekko]

In all of this acquisition discussion the only entity that has expressed an interest in the whole company is the guy who does not have the financing to do it.

no there are a bunch of secret magical buyers out there willing to pay a 50-100% premium. they are just not ready to show themselves.

[m1a1mg]

Blair is busy doing what we in the UK call a 'reverse ferret'

Wow, Blair has been one of the biggest dealers in hopium. He's done an about face in less than a week.

[Randeman]

I think Super is right, Thorsten is out. I think it will happen this Friday. In lieu of a conf. call, just a quick press release right after the ER.
This, added to some hopefully positive interpretation of the ER (and plan B), combined with xBBM release this weekend (a prediction) and the SP should move up on Monday. I still think Prem's trying to set a floor of $9 (even though we're below it) and generate some interest - not to get another deal but to revive the SP. Still don't think they want a buy-out. Just a big name partner to help move things along.
Sorry to see lots of us back out at this point - it really is tough to stomach. However, this kind of opportunity comes along once in a lifetime (already hit $6 before, but I slept thru that one). I'm getting ready to add, just trying to decide when (almost have the wife convinced). A successful, proper, xBBM release would do it for me and I really hope they can deliver.
Super, glad to see you added shares. Balls of titanium!

Lastly, I vote for CJ to be made interim-CEO. He can bang on the drum all day, so I've heard.

[Gekko]

If Heins is terminated without a change of control, he is entitled to $22 million in salary, incentive payments and equity awards, based on the March 28 share price. The payout would include his base salary of $3 million and about $72,000 in benefits and retirement savings. He also is eligible for an annual incentive payment of $2.8 million, which climbs to $4.5 million in a change-of-control scenario.
The equity awards are valued at $16.1 million if he’s simply terminated and $48 million if it happens at the hands of new owners. The documents don’t specify what might occur in a more complex breakup situation.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

per the analyst in the article -

1. Cash = $2.6B
2. Patents = $1.6B
3. Server Network = $825m
4. Licences = $400m

it seems reasonable. but -

1. Cash - you have to account for the BURN and you have to account for how much will it cost to shut operations down? as i've said before it cost HP at least $1.7B to shut down PALM in addition to what they paid for the company.
2. Patents - i'm not sure how much these "magical" patents are worth given that Apple and Google are beating BB silly without these magical patents. haven't times changed? aren't these glorified pager patents somewhat antiquated in 2013? Palm launched a smartphone long before BB did (Palm/Handspring Treo 180).
3. Server Network - again, antiquated in 2013?
4. Licenses = not sure exactly what this is.

obviously there is some value here, the question is how much does someone need it and what are they willing to pay for it? does any of this technology help an Apple or Google compete today and in the future? i don't see it.

There are other assets not listed, buildings, "jets", property and a number of divisions within BlackBerry that have been purchased in the last few years... Doc to Go, Tungle, TAT, Gist, Certicom, Dash, QNX, Jaycut, NewBAy, Paratek....

Not sure if some of these existing as separate identities anymore or not.... or what their values are in today's world, but I have to believe that combined they are worth close to a Billion - so a valuations of another $400 - $5000 Million wouldn't be out of line.

But that is the problem with this type of buyout... the buyer who is taking the risk, is the one setting the price. Shareholders can say no if they want, but they risk losing even more in the long run. But it does seem as if this is being rushed with very little "clear" info on what the value of the company really is.

[spiller]

OFF-TOPIC:

I personally am staying in this until the end, but i think that is partly because i may have some screws loose

As for the naysayers. Everyone in this thread made their own decisions, no one is to blame here for individual losses. No one forced anyone to buy, sell or even trade and i think we are all aware of that.

The tale is far from over. I think we can all agree it has been an interesting year for BBRY! Let's see how this plays out

Throw me into the loose screws group And I'm thinking of buying more down here....

[Gekko]

There are other assets not listed, buildings, "jets", property and a number of divisions within BlackBerry that have been purchased in the last few years... Doc to Go, Tungle, TAT, Gist, Certicom, Dash, QNX, Jaycut, NewBAy, Paratek....

Not sure if some of these existing as separate identities anymore or not.... or what their values are in today's world, but I have to believe that combined they are worth close to a Billion - so a valuations of another $400 - $5000 Million wouldn't be out of line.

But that is the problem with this type of buyout... the buyer who is taking the risk, is the one setting the price. Shareholders can say no if they want, but they risk loosing even more in the long run. But it does seem as if this is being rushed with very little "clear" info on what the value of the company really is.

i think the future of the company is a fire sale of all assets at fire sale prices. the future of the company is not a going concern - that's the sad reality.

[Shanerredflag]

Fire sale is the buzz word this week...last week was something different...next week will be something else I bet.

Posted via CB10

[Randeman]

Here's what I am using to include in my plan C. Also making it easier for me to add shares now...
Here’s why BlackBerry needs to prepare for possible No Sale | Financial Post