[sidhuk]

Heya Everyone,

Good luck to all... My balls of steel finally sunk ha! Took one hell of a loss with that investment. Watching from the side-lines to see how this plays out. I still could enter back in, but I am unsure as right now to me, this is a guessing game of whether or not there are other bidders in play. I will check out the ER and see what happens.

I felt that management became unreachable and non-communicative on several issues. The BBM debacle was really the kicker for me. Too bad really, I felt that could have changed momentum slightly. Thor was never a good marketer/spokesperson but a great tech-savvy leader. Blackberry is definitely missing a vocalist for their PR team. Like Yang said, perception is what counts, and the media has been all over the company. Disappointing really, especially the Canadian media outlets. I hope BB does well in the future, it would make sense for them to get bought out but what troubles me is the Canadian government intervening...

I learned quite a bit these last several months. My investing career is now on a slight hault for the time being, unless I decide to enter this stock again (unlikely). Thanks to everyone who was involved (too many to name) in discussion and the thread. I'll be around to see how this plays out... Also, I hope we can get a new thread going involving other investment opportunities. Good luck to all!

-Eric

I've missed more than 9000 shots in my career. I've lost almost 300 games. 26 times, I've been trusted to take the game winning shot and missed. I've failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.

-Michael Jordan

Prem came to canada with 8bucks in his pocket. I can relate many many true stories with him including mine. even today, there are people still landing at the Canadian airports, some of them will be millionaires. new country, new language and to make it to the top doesnt come without risks. and I wouldn't want it any other ways. get up and do it again, again and again. IMO crying and blaming is for real losers. taking it on the chin and looking forward to the next day is they way of true appreciation of life. Just one frickin stock shouldn't be end of life, respect or humanity. I admire your style Eric.
by the way, MJ is the only player that I planned my day to watch him play. no one before no one after.

[silversun10]

And he also confirmed pension funds are with him

"He said the bid was led by Fairfax and CANADIAN FUNDS, but not restricted to them"

Posted via CB10

Fairfax's Watsa confident BlackBerry bid will succeed | Reuters

[Gekko]

"I do not think casual investors should trade stocks or buy individual stocks. I think doing that is insane, but it takes a while to convince a smart person of that because they feel like they have some edge. The idea that an individual sitting at home, watching TV, getting a tip, doing a little bit of work, reading a financial prospectus, could ever out-trade Fidelity or SAC Capital is just ludicrous. And by the way, you have to out-trade them to win--it's a zero-sum game. So I think without question, the best advice for individual investors is "Never ever pick stocks. Don't try to time the market. Own a diversified basket of index funds, and re-balance when something gets out of whack."" - H.B.

[heymaggie]

Sounds to me that we can buy BBRY today for $ 8.00/shr and in 5-weeks we can make a dollar? A very nice return indeed.

Yup. $9 is the floor according to Prem. A once-in-a lifetime opportunity to average down by purchasing a 10X block of $8 BBRY and making 11% in 5 weeks. All paper losses from the past few months would vanish.

Who's with me?

[acdne]

So basically he sounds very confident that he'll get the $9 no problem.

Surely it makes sense to just buy as much shares as you can at the $8 range and make a quick profit when sold for $9?

I guess it's not as black and white as that but from his statement he doesn't sound like he's playing about.

Unfortunately it's not that easy as there are no guarantees still.

Another interesting tidbit from the Reuters article

"Asked if the bid price could be reduced, Watsa said he didn't expect that to happen unless the review of BlackBerry produced negative surprises. He said Fairfax had never changed the terms of a deal in 28 years."

[lonew0lf]

T-Mobile to stop carrying blackberry devices in stores: Reuters

[sidhuk]

after hours have picked up a little. Time to hit the gym and do some heavy weights.

[morganplus8]

Fairfax's Watsa confident BlackBerry bid will succeed | Reuters

Well, a big oops there:

"Asked if the bid price could be reduced, Watsa said he didn't expect that to happen unless the review of BlackBerry produced negative surprises. He said Fairfax had never changed the terms of a deal in 28 years.

He said the group did not include any strategic players, but that one or two technology companies could possibly join.

Can we turn our conversation away from the "bid failing" and talk about how the Patents are only worth a dollar again. Thanks

[_dimi_]

Hey Morgan!

Since you're so active today (yay!!!), when would you expect more offers to come in, if others do decide to step in before it all goes private? Do you agree with C. Umiastowski that the situation could be much worse than they've told us so far, as the BoD agreed on such a low bid? Or do you still believe this was a clean-up operation to prepare the business for a lower volume of smartphone production / sale? Right now I tend to agree with Chris. I just can't see them agreeing on a 9 dollar / share deal if they truly see potential in a niche 'prosumer / enterprise' smartphone volume business. Unless they really want to sell the company and believe other offers will come in, but that sounds like advanced chess.. for a BoD that hasn't impressed me that much (yet). Always nice to have your view on the story!

Posted via CB10

[acdne]

Well, a big oops there:

He said the group did not include any strategic players, but that one or two technology companies could possibly join.

That's one of the main reasons I don't expect a bidding war, why pay more than $9 per share for the whole company when you can join the consortium and take what you want for less. Win-Win for them, while bought-out shareholders get screwed.

[cjcampbell]

Hey Morgan!

Since you're so active today (yay!!!), when would you expect more offers to come in, if others do decide to step in before it all goes private? Do you agree with C. Umiastowski that the situation could be much worse than they've told us so far, as the BoD agreed on such a low bid? Or do you still believe this was a clean-up operation to prepare the business for a lower volume of smartphone production / sale? Right now I tend to agree with Chris. I just can't see them agreeing on a 9 dollar / share deal if they truly see potential in a niche 'prosumer / enterprise' smartphone volume business. Unless they really want to sell the company and believe other offers will come in, but that sounds like advanced chess.. for a BoD that hasn't impressed me that much (yet). Always nice to have your view on the story!

Posted via CB10

I may not be the target answer but I have my opinion, right or wrong, on it. I think we heard the worst of it. The accounting practice should be revealed on Friday morning which should explain the low revs. I think they took the $9 offer to be tabled as it stopped/slowed the sell off after Friday's news, and they really want out of the public eye. Look how everyone has been reacting with silence from TH over the last 4 months and the horrible news/speculation. This has hurt them. Also the reporting of the news on Friday would not have happened if they were private. I think its a get off the market, do what we need to do to become profitable, then relist in a year or two. At that point, the investors who buy, should it stay in Prem's hands, will see their investment pay off. Of course, in this scenario it is not a guarantee but it does make a whole lotta sense.

[lonew0lf]

I recall when . Buffett came in and saved Salomon Brothers the market let it alone. When Buffett came in to bail out Goldman Sachs the market left it alone. His name and financial backing made it clear that you didn't have more firepower than he did.

I'm wondering after Watsa made the share offer, the stock bounced but has since traded back down below the pre-LOI price. Is his track-record not as long or as strong. I don't ever recall seeing a Buffett deal get challenged this much...

[cjcampbell]

That's one of the main reasons I don't expect a bidding war, why pay more than $9 per share for the whole company when you can join the consortium and take what you want for less. Win-Win for them, while bought-out shareholders get screwed.

It could be a couple of smaller tech companies that could use the BB network, patents, and resources, to spring board their own desires and aspirations. I have no idea but I can't see, say a Google, Microsoft, Samsung, or any of the big boys entering in this fashion. Well, unless it's to angle around the Canadian laws regarding foreign take overs, which I suppose does make this a possibility.

[heymaggie]

If technology companies get involved then Prem will be talking about what they can acquire after the $9 deal goes through. No need to have a bidding war now that shareholders are on the ropes.

[bbmotion]

guys I can't take this anymore, I sold my entire position today over 3000 shares and lost over 19k. Sorry this stock is too bs. I rather put my money somewhere then this bs stock. Morgan, Over course 6 months I visited this thread every half an hour each trading day looking for the post you made. I found they are very informative and helpful. You are very talented, I have learned alot from you. I will back and look for post. keep up the good work. Thank You.

[silversun10]

It could be a couple of smaller tech companies that could use the BB network, patents, and resources, to spring board their own desires and aspirations. I have no idea but I can't see, say a Google, Microsoft, Samsung, or any of the big boys entering in this fashion. Well, unless it's to angle around the Canadian laws regarding foreign take overs, which I suppose does make this a possibility.

no strategic partners it says, so that leaves out the big names, right?

[cjcampbell]

no strategic partners it says, so that leaves out the big names, right?

In the words of who though...

[BlackistheBerry]

If technology companies get involved then Prem will be talking about what they can acquire after the $9 deal goes through. No need to have a bidding war now that shareholders are on the ropes.

Is it not possible that Prem still believes that this can be a $40/a share company, and after having been on the board, and knowing the internal functioning, he thinks he knows how he can make it get there?
If he has a 'vision' for the company, he probably would have had some tech companies in mind for quite a while, who can correct the wrongs, and can take BlackBerry in the direction that he wants it to take.
He just may have reached out to them.
And contrary to what most believe, he has a lot of convincing power. If he wants someone to come on board, I am pretty sure he can make it happen.
For the same reason, I have believed that the funding is not an issue for him.

Edit- just read the interview, and he does say that they want to make BlackBerry successful again.

[silversun10]

In the words of who though...

the Reuters interview

here:
He said the group did not include any strategic players, but that one or two technology companies could possibly join.

[morganplus8]

Hey Morgan!

Since you're so active today (yay!!!), when would you expect more offers to come in, if others do decide to step in before it all goes private? Do you agree with C. Umiastowski that the situation could be much worse than they've told us so far, as the BoD agreed on such a low bid? Or do you still believe this was a clean-up operation to prepare the business for a lower volume of smartphone production / sale? Right now I tend to agree with Chris. I just can't see them agreeing on a 9 dollar / share deal if they truly see potential in a niche 'prosumer / enterprise' smartphone volume business. Unless they really want to sell the company and believe other offers will come in, but that sounds like advanced chess.. for a BoD that hasn't impressed me that much (yet). Always nice to have your view on the story!

Posted via CB10

_dimi_!!!

Glad to see you posting today! I'm just kidding around, bored because we have to wait for the next shoe to drop here and it is only day 3! I should take a page from LC's playbook and go have a beer! I use to like what Chris had to say on our site, but lately, he seems to be really jaded with BlackBerry due to his losses in the stock, and it shows in his commentary. So now I can't find much in his work that I personally believe in. I feel we will be hearing from others much later on in the process here, these assets are a once in a lifetime opportunity for many businesses to step into the mobile sector. Prem is not buying up shares in the company, post acquisition announcement, which is Bus. 101 when you want something. If you heard Carl tell you he "wants to buy Dell but to finance it all .... heaven shoot me down, not the shares though" .... "with other investors' money" would you follow Carl into that investment? No! Prem is leaving the door wide open with a big sign on it that he wants offers to come in. That's just my take on it, of course, I don't have "reliable sources" and have to think of these things on my own.

In that respect, I don't agree with Chris thinking that things might be much worse, he wrote that piece at a time when the news first came out, not all of the information was available at the time, and he had just sold out of BBRY at a loss. To think that the cost of carrying 4,500 employees any longer than they did, resulted in a flat earnings quarter, can you imagine if they didn't have those employees or overhead at the same 5.9 million handsets sold? I don't think Chris took all of the accounting changes into account when he wrote that article. In fact, some of the information wasn't available to him at that time. We didn't know that of the $ 1.6 billion in revenue posted, there was $ 800 of Enterprise in that figure, a number that's on par with Q1. If the Enterprise numbers are flat, (and we will know this on Friday), then the subs are flat and that's a great indicator that BBRY Services are holding up well. The worst you can say about this pre-announcement is that "they only sold 4.8 million handsets in Q1 and Q2 sales are now much higher but BlackBerry feels the need to writedown inventory anyway". What they should have done was restate Q1 to reflect the real handset sales followed by the real handset sales for Q2 of 5.9 million. When you look at it that way, cutting the workforce by 4.500 is a very positive event. Writing down inventory, all BB 10 at that, is interesting and we need to hear form BlackBerry to decide why this is so.

The BoD did decide to accept that "intent to purchase" from Prem because it would have happened whether they did or not. Prem was ready to make an offer (from $ 9.00 - $ 11.00/shr I bet) and the shareholders would vote on it anyway. The timng is interesting to say the least but I still think everything fell together nicely for Prem and he got to lower his price for the offer that was going to happen soon. I would like to see BBM-X launch ASAP, to me that is an important part of all of this. To conclude, Chris is very negative on the whole thing but much of that is in the timing of the release of all of the news. He should have waited to pass judgment on this whole thing until after the ER/Q2 meeting.

I'm looking forward to the meeting, I bought shares today because I have never seen an offer from someone like a Prem Watsa not be a solid one. This guy isn't stupid, he knows all about the company and likely has deals with Mikey to get this done. Not hearing from Mikey tells me they are in bed together on the deal. Still, there are a number of companies who could buy this one for a blip in their balance sheet. Wait two more weeks!

[silversun10]

no dog and pony show on Friday(no CC)
WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sep 25, 2013) - BlackBerry� Limited (BBRY)(BB.TO) today announced that it will release its complete second quarter financial results on Friday, September 27 at 7:00 a.m.

In light of the letter of intent agreement between BlackBerry and Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited that was signed and announced on Monday, September 23, BlackBerry has cancelled its second quarter earnings conference call and webcast that had previously been scheduled for Friday, September 27 at 8:00 a.m. The company will publish further details regarding its second quarter results in the Management's Discussion and Analysis and consolidated financial statements, to be filed next week.

[Gekko]

T-Mobile to stop carrying blackberry devices in stores: Reuters

well this confirms what i posted here two days ago -

09-23-2013, 01:57 PM
T-Mobile stores in the Northeast region (USA) have just gotten word from above that they will no longer be getting new Blackberry inventory. Blackberry will disappear from T-Mobile retail stores. if you don't believe me call or visit the stores and ask. this is HUGE. i expect all major carriers to follow if they have not already done so.

http://forums.crackberry.com/bbry-f3...ml#post9223251

[_dimi_]

no dog and pony show on Friday(no CC)
WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sep 25, 2013) - BlackBerry� Limited (BBRY)(BB.TO) today announced that it will release its complete second quarter financial results on Friday, September 27 at 7:00 a.m.

In light of the letter of intent agreement between BlackBerry and Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited that was signed and announced on Monday, September 23, BlackBerry has cancelled its second quarter earnings conference call and webcast that had previously been scheduled for Friday, September 27 at 8:00 a.m. The company will publish further details regarding its second quarter results in the Management's Discussion and Analysis and consolidated financial statements, to be filed next week.

Hahaha... interesting stuff happening

Posted via CB10

[Gekko]

no dog and pony show on Friday(no CC)
WATERLOO, ONTARIO--(Marketwired - Sep 25, 2013) - BlackBerry� Limited (BBRY)(BB.TO) today announced that it will release its complete second quarter financial results on Friday, September 27 at 7:00 a.m.

In light of the letter of intent agreement between BlackBerry and Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited that was signed and announced on Monday, September 23, BlackBerry has cancelled its second quarter earnings conference call and webcast that had previously been scheduled for Friday, September 27 at 8:00 a.m. The company will publish further details regarding its second quarter results in the Management's Discussion and Analysis and consolidated financial statements, to be filed next week.

i bet Heins is relieved. he's probably asking - can i just have my $55M now and call it a day?

[slickvguy]

Not really that big of a deal. The kids in the stores won't show them - so what's the point? People who get BB10's are not your walk-in type of customer. Corporate, online, etc. All part of the "refocusing", I suppose.