[cgk]

We have just broke $7.98 (after hours).

[m1a1mg]

if they replace the CxOs/cut half empls, and start from scratch, the share price would possible go to 15+ next year.

Just check BBY, former CEO bid at 24, and nobody believe the CEO could get the deal and the share price dropped to 13.

Look at what is BBY price right now, almost $40. from $13 to $40 in 6 months after the offer expired in Feb. 2013.

You are very right. My personal concern is how high are the obligations to build phones that very few are buying?

[Komoto]

My take.
ER is coming up.
I think there are two ways this can go.

1. The terrible news is already out there which they released on Friday, so the ER will show things not to be so terrible.

Ie write off was too heavy, Rev recognition too conservative, service revenues stable. Prospective buyers will see this and see good value in the company and start to make offers, bidding war begins. PW holds cards as he has large block plus gets his 160 mil which helps soften the blow if he gets bought out at 13.50.

2. Friday news was just the tip of the iceberg, the ER is terrible and BlackBerry not in a good way.

PW knowing this, because he was on the board until recently tried to force someone's hand by putting in the offer getting a counteroffer and getting out at around 10.
Potential buyers all step away. PW tries to come up with funding, can't, stock tanks hard.

It does seem to be a binary situation, no?

Let's analyse. If PW was really trying scenario two, you would think he would do this earlier to give more time before the ER for offers to come in?

These are my thoughts, pure speculation. I know it is only day 3 into the 6 week period. I also think most companies will wait for ER to see what the situation is.

They have access to the books whenever they want though, right? Thoughts.


Posted via CB10

[fin2007]

You know things are bad when users are pointing the finger at Morgan. If BBRY went up to even $20, everyone would have been calling him a god and all sorts.

LOL, I started to read his post and this thread a week ago.

I did not dare to say that early because it seems he was so respected here.

What I wanted to say was he was so wishful/fanish, those two mostly would hurt your invest badly and are not good in trading at all.

[acdne]

You are very right. My personal concern is how high are the obligations to build phones that very few are buying?

Ya, the three things I still want to see are purchase obligations, current inventory levels after the write down, and expenditure.

[fin2007]

My take.
ER is coming up.
I think there are two ways this can go.

1. The terrible news is already out there which they released on Friday, so the ER will show things not to be so terrible.

Ie write off was too heavy, Rev recognition too conservative, service revenues stable. Prospective buyers will see this and see good value in the company and start to make offers, bidding war begins. PW holds cards as he has large block plus gets his 160 mil which helps soften the blow if he gets bought out at 13.50.

2. Friday news was just the tip of the iceberg, the ER is terrible and BlackBerry not in a good way.

PW knowing this, because he was on the board until recently tried to force someone's hand by putting in the offer getting a counteroffer and getting out at around 10.
Potential buyers all step away. PW tries to come up with funding, can't, stock tanks hard.

It does seem to be a binary situation, no?

Let's analyse. If PW was really trying scenario two, you would think he would do this earlier to give more time before the ER for offers to come in?

These are my thoughts, pure speculation. I know it is only day 3 into the 6 week period. I also think most companies will wait for ER to see what the situation is.

They have access to the books whenever they want though, right? Thoughts.


Posted via CB10

at this time, it is anyone's guess, but I would mostly guess it is between the two or the later.
I think those interested parties had the rights to visit their full book already.

[chr1sny]

Link to WSJ article please

The WSJ article is a bomb. It It's correct the situation is really dark.

So, if I understood correctly It's not Fairfax buying BlackBerry. They are creating this new entity using their 10% of BB shares, pension funds will add $1b in cash taking 66% of the ownership of the entity. And this entity will ask +$3b in debt.

If that is the case, then Watsa is doing the same job the BoD has been doing for the last year, he's trying to sell the 90% of company. In this case Watsa is trying to sell the company to the pension funds and the investment banks that will take the assets as warranties to issue the debt. Fairfax is not increasing their share in BlackBerry, but is increasing its risk because key assets are warranty for the debt.

But, why would pension funds buy BlackBerry at $9 when everybody else is selling at that price and none of the other players in the industry is interested at that price level? That would be pretty crazy stuff to do. So rumors are if pension funds aren't crazy enough Watsa will use a bridge loan, that is use BB cash to buy the company, and that increase the risk a lot, he would have to give a lot more as warranty for the debt.
Watsa has to 'sell' really good the assets of BlackBerry to the banks to get +$3b in debt, a much better job than the committee has done.

Lets say 5 weeks later there is no better offer, why would Watsa make his offer firm? He can retract with any excuse, the stock would go to 6 or less and he can make another offer after that. With a lower price he needs a less debt, less warranty for banks, less risk for himself and the pension funds.

[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

at this time, it is anyone's guess, but I would mostly guess it is between the two or the later.
I think those interested parties had the rights to visit their full book already.

I don't see anything positive coming out of the ER. MAYBE no more bad news... but not anything good.

Until someone else steps in and makes an offer, or Fairfax comments to their offer... I think a lot of people are going to changing their minds about $9 a share not being the right price -------- including Fairfax.

[sidhuk]

No Matter how one says it. in the end, stock price is a guess game for most outsiders. knowing that, then why blame? we all make our own decisions. if we win, we call our self genius. if we loose, we blame it on others. thats human nature.

[Bilaal]

To be honest, I'm just waiting for BlackBerry to go private so all this bleeding can end for the best. Who knows, 2 years from now, this thread revives or a 2.0 version is crated by Superfly lol.

****, I'd appreciate if they begin to sell phones directly from their site, the BlackBerry will live on for those who want it to.

Posted via CB10

[sparkaction]

I don't see anything positive coming out of the ER. MAYBE no more bad news... but not anything good.

Until someone else steps in and makes an offer, or Fairfax comments to their offer... I think a lot of people are going to changing their minds about $9 a share not being the right price -------- including Fairfax.

There has to be a balance between buyers and sells. If the share price was say $1 per share and tomorrow and this was FF 's new offer, do you think shareholder would accept? No. They would rather take a chance at $2 vs zero.

[Komoto]

I forgot to say, if I am arguing both cases, following on from what I was saying. The question begs; if things are not so bad, why is Prem trying to get out on his position?

Does he have a deadline because of his own shareholders? I think it is a valid question.

Posted via CB10

[heymaggie]

You know things are bad when users are pointing the finger at Morgan. If BBRY went up to even $20, everyone would have been calling him a god and all sorts.

Well, it is the nature of being right vs being wrong.

[bungaboy]

Hey LC, take care. Good luck on the new home and new business.

Wishing you nothing but the best.

[BergerKing]

Isn't it getting crowded there under the bridge?

Just leased some space under the New River Gorge Bridge. No worries.

[Bugmapper]

Wow, this thread has completely blown up.

Looks like children rule the internet.

I have no time for this.

[crackerdoodle]

What a cluster this has turned into. I sure am glad I sold out on the June Friday massacre. Lost $200,000 so the pain was real. Fortunately, I was able to make it back in the months that have followed so I am now even although my year would of been much much stronger had I not gotten sucked in by the hype. This management team is a total disaster. They blatantly lied with regards to BBRY z10 demand. I am shocked that there have not been class action lawsuits as of yet. The handling of the "sale" has proven what a total bunch of clowns they are and how out of there league they really are. Its unfortunate because the product is very good.
I wish you all the best but please take whatever you have left of your investment and look elsewhere.

[the_sleuth]

Komoto, I agree with you. ER on Friday will be a binary event (up or down). I'll let others attach probabilities to either event but there is great risk here......the optics don't look good from ER pre-announcement, BOD, Farifax's LOI, JPM's search for strategic buyer (over one year), and the comments from professional money managers on LOI.

[Reed Richards]

I forgot to say, if I am arguing both cases, following on from what I was saying. The question begs; if things are not so bad, why is Prem trying to get out on his position?
Posted via CB10

It is a valid question, and I mostly think, yes, things are quite bad. Even if a lot of this quarter's loss was from changing the accounting, there will probably still be a write-down of the Q5 in the months ahead. But if I had to guess based on Watsa's bid, I'd say that things are bad, but they are not irretrievably bad.

Some have said that Watsa is simply trying to start a bidding process and get bought out at $10/share. I tend to think he sees high value in going private: it gives BlackBerry a chance to operate without short sellers and analysts flogging every misstep, it gives him a chance to re-make the marketing department, it gives him a chance to operate as he sees fit. My guess is that he thinks he can turn BlackBerry around as phone maker, or turn it into a software company. And if that fails, he can simply sell it for parts. But he sees value in it.

I guess my point is this: Watsa left the Board around August 11th or so. The share price was around $10.75. It cracked $11 a few days later. If things with BlackBerry are irreparably bad, wouldn't he have seen that already, and sold his shares around $11?

[sidhuk]

Game on: Google search trends shows BBM has a real shot at scoring in the multi-platform Instant Messaging game | CrackBerry.com

The interest in BBM is just Crazy. I hope these guys release it soon.

[anon(4086547)]

I know I know.. membership of crackberry is a terrible metric but surely the fact that the q5 area is so dead adds to the idea that it was simply DOA? I think we will see another write-off next quarter.

Attachment 205208

Yep, that was one UGLY device ...

[silversun10]

Oversold?
BlackBerry Becomes Oversold (BBRY) - Forbes

[plasmid_boy]

Game on: Google search trends shows BBM has a real shot at scoring in the multi-platform Instant Messaging game | CrackBerry.com

The interest in BBM is just Crazy. I hope these guys release it soon.

I tried others (iMessage, WhatsApp, LINE, etc) just to see what they are like, nothing even come close to being as good as BBM. Too bad the launch didn't go as planed...

[JonCBK]

Another tough day here. Fortunately, a 5% loss is much less of a loss for me than it used to be. :-)
I wonder if we will someday soon be looking at that $9 offer wistfully. I can't wait to hear the ER. I'm nervous, but excited. I wonder if the cash flow results are going to surprise to the upside.
I'm also wondering if the Canadian government is going to take some action here. Canada doesn't have a huge number of tech companies who play on a world stage. It might be useful to throw a billion dollar loan into the mix to support BBRY. That would probably require BBRY to remain public though otherwise it would be seen as too much of a handout to a private party.

[Superfly_FR]

I guess I'm the only one buying some shares down here?

No Sir ... See VVV.
Sitting on a average of ~USD 10.35 bought 450 last ones around CAN$8.38.
Now the currency exchange rates ...