[OMGitworks]

at the worst, he can just let go most ppl, sell the patents in cheap, and just profit from the service revenue which is still 800M a quarter. I do not see there is a big risk here.

There is still big risk. patents are worth what some company will pay. What we think doesn't matter. Service revenues aren't guaranteed. There is risk in BBRY everywhere you look.

[Gekko]

Long time reader of this thread. This is my first write up. Question : can Prem walk away from the 9 dollar / share deal, because there is no penalty to do so, and then enter with another offer, say 7 dollar per share?

Posted via CB10

i don't see why not.

[heymaggie]

What should scare investors the most is something that Chris Umi repeatedly brought up in the podcasts - the people who know the most about what Blackberry's situation is, the CEO and the Board looked at the flaky $9 rescue offer and accepted it. What do they know about the company that isn't public knowledge yet?

At least they know who's looking at their books if Lenovo or Samsung or MSFT were seriously poking around their financials and saying "Look, we're very interested. We just need some time but we're talking in the teens" then the CEO and Board would know about it.

[cgk]

What should scare investors the most is something that Chris Umi repeatedly brought up in the podcasts - the people who know the most about what Blackberry's situation is, the CEO and the Board looked at the flaky $9 rescue offer and accepted it. What do they know about the company that isn't public knowledge yet?

I was initially hopeful about services but I know think there is major rot there and although service revenue is currently holding up, they have some forecasts or some future knowledge that it is about to fall off a cliff and that is what is driving the panic - there are little hints here and there - Heins is always careful to talk about test servers when discussing BES, we get press releases that make a big deal about MDM deployments managing sixty tablets.

The BOD is certainly scared of something.

[Gekko]

What should scare investors the most is something that Chris Umi repeatedly brought up in the podcasts - the people who know the most about what Blackberry's situation is, the CEO and the Board looked at the flaky $9 rescue offer and accepted it. What do they know about the company that isn't public knowledge yet?

At least they know who's looking at their books if Lenovo or Samsung or MSFT were seriously poking around their financials and saying "Look, we're very interested. We just need some time but we're talking in the teens" then the CEO and Board would know about it.

1. more bad news coming Fri earnings?
2. BBRY is required by law to give all info requested by a potential bidder.

[morganplus8]

I wouldn't base it on their net worths.
That's why I didn't say they HAVE.
I said they can COME UP WITH.
When Prem started, his net worth is said to be $8 ( no zeroes there). He didn't start anything with that.

I am sure I can come up with more than my net worth if I needed/wanted to, and I am sure so can you.

Most investors don't invest their own money even if they have it.
If I want to invest in a property worth a million $, even if I have a million $ cash, I will not pay cash for it. I will go get a mortgage.
The only thing I would need to do is to convince a lender that the property is worth it, and I will show my commitment by putting a down payment.

In the case of people like Prem, etc., I believe that they have a lot more convincing power than me.

You are fighting a useless battle there, Mikey has already donated more then his Net Worth in the past 1 1/2 years, how was he able to do that? The Net figures are based upon the current stock price of BBRY, dumb, dumb, dumb, I think he also owns a toaster if I'm correct right? He has a mountain of assets aside from BlackBerry and bought an additional $ 50 million in BBRY 1 1/2 years ago, around 3.4 million shares just to show some confidence in the company. To understand what a person is worth, like Mikey, you need to know how many shares of BBRY he sold in the past 20-years and at what prices, that's his Net Worth, the 26 million BBRY shares don't even factor into that calculation. Please feel free to look at his donations in the past 2 years alone, they are massive.

[greggebhardt]

I'm no expert in this by any means, but are you friends with Prem or do you know someone that is close to him? how do you know he is having hard time to pull investors for funding?

I guess I am guessing, like no one else does here. But when BBRY is closing in on the $7 range, I would say that the $9 is not going to fly and I would bet the investors would know, too. Maybe we need a good chart right now!

[randall2580]

Long time reader of this thread. This is my first write up. Question : can Prem walk away from the 9 dollar / share deal, because there is no penalty to do so, and then enter with another offer, say 7 dollar per share?

Posted via CB10

He certainly can. He can use the due diligence excuse "I am shocked to find...(fill in the blank) that we only found out in the due diligence so we have to reduce our offer to...(again fill in the blank)".

In fact, the market at the current 8.10 price is telling you this is likely to play out this way.

[sentimentGX4]

Do people really think it's too hard for Prem to come with a couple of billion dollars if he wants to????

BBRY's assets are not worth much except to a small subset of tech companies. If none of these companies are interested in BBRY's technology, then few other investors can capitalize on it... including Fairfax.

Currently, BBRY's share price is valued at what shareholders believe its value to be for a company like Microsoft. But if it comes down to buying the shares themselves, Fairfax is not going to pay what they think BBRY's value is to Microsoft. Fairfax is going to pay what they think BBRY's value is to Fairfax.

That value may be a bit lower than 9 USD so, if the share price actually drops precipitously down to something like 6 USD, Watsa may just need to practice humility and take it.



P.S. Also, do not that due to the terms of the current "deal", Watsa could easily just revise his offer price down along with the stock market so 9 USD is not a floor. At its current price, Watsa doesn't even have any incentive to pay 9 USD/share for BBRY even if he had originally intended to.

[OMGitworks]

I guess I am guessing, like no one else does here. But when BBRY is closing in on the $7 range, I would say that the $9 is not going to fly and I would bet the investors would know, too. Maybe we need a good chart right now!

A 7 handle on BBRY would be shocking. It would tell you the street has ZERO confidence of the PW deal, or any other deal. It's almost unbelievable that you have a $9 offer from a major, reputable shareholder and its still trading at a 10-15% discount to that. I can't recall that happening, esp since the arbs would normally be acting to at least equalize everything. Just shocking to me.

[jayrock52]

I just sold as well. I've lost all confidence that I had left in BlackBerry's BOD and management. Good luck to you all and I wish you all the best!

Posted via CB10

[silversun10]

I guess I am guessing, like no one else does here. But when BBRY is closing in on the $7 range, I would say that the $9 is not going to fly and I would bet the investors would know, too. Maybe we need a good chart right now!

premature to say where the Fairfax deal goes based on the current share price, as long as the deal stands the BB share price can go to zero and the take private will be at $9.
but we are getting ahead of ourselves here. After the Friday ER we will know more. And after they finally launch BBM cross platform we will know more. Right now fear rules and that will change over time.

[abouthsu]

I guess I am guessing, like no one else does here. But when BBRY is closing in on the $7 range, I would say that the $9 is not going to fly and I would bet the investors would know, too. Maybe we need a good chart right now!

Unfortunately, there are different types of guess where one is just pure guessing and betting as you pointed above. *reminded me of going to vegas and spin the wheel* if i hit a bonus or won something, i pretended to know something. and then there's other type of guessing with some information, logic and facts build into it. I rather play on the table than slot machines. Regardless, thanks for confirming your thought processes.

[OMGitworks]

premature to say where the Fairfax deal goes based on the current share price, as long as the deal stands the BB share price can go to zero and the take private will be at $9.
but we are getting ahead of ourselves here. After the Friday ER we will know more. And after they finally launch BBM cross platform we will know more. Right now fear rules and that will change over time.

You do realize that PW can get out of this deal anytime before Nov 4 without a penalty? Why do you assume the ER or BBM launch will quell any fear out there? From Friday-now BBM and the buyout have actually instilled more fear. What makes you think he is going to pay $9 a share if it is trading at 6,5,4 etc. He'll buy on the open market and/or exercise his out under the deal. Do you think his investors will give him the money to buy something at $9 that they can buy on the open market for significantly less? There won't be time for BBM to effect the share price. He is already taking a hit from 17 to 9, he won't absorb a further hit if he doesn't have to. He's already engaged in a massive and expensive salvage mission, he isn't going to make it worse.

Folks, I really do HOPE it gets better, but it does not HAVE to get better. There are no guarantees that we have seen and heard the worse.

[randall2580]

I'm no expert in this by any means, but are you friends with Prem or do you know someone that is close to him? how do you know he is having hard time to pull investors for funding?

You can't know but you can suspect from the fact that he has not yet named the investors in the "consortium" and what their contributions will be, and there is reason why he would want to do that. Right now there is doubt and the market is trading at what would be considered a large discount to the bid price because of the uncertainty. Naming the players takes that uncertainty away and would bring the share price to 9 if not a slight premium because the doubt is removed, you have a fully funded offer, now we wait to see if there is another bid coming.

If you remember in the Dell bidding there was for some time some doubt that Ichan had all his ducks in a row, leading some to doubt his was a fully funded offer.

[Elite1]

If you saw it, please ignore Mr. Muller whose quote previously resided on previous page.
A simple lad with an identity crisis... His post was shipped back to sender at his sub-bridge residence.

That's all. Nothing to see here...

[abouthsu]

premature to say where the Fairfax deal goes based on the current share price, as long as the deal stands the BB share price can go to zero and the take private will be at $9.
but we are getting ahead of ourselves here. After the Friday ER we will know more. And after they finally launch BBM cross platform we will know more. Right now fear rules and that will change over time.

With exception that the chess match has a real effects on peoples financial. I took a loss and will take some time to make it back. Still holding some to be in the *game*. I do recall my wife making the same vows to me, for better or worse. I tend to be stubborn in some ways that don't believe everything and at times it burns me hard. But I took it as an education and learn from the mistakes, even pros makes mistakes which lead me to option strategies. JMHO.

[silversun10]

You do realize that PW can get out of this deal anytime before Nov 4 without a penalty? Why do you assume the ER or BBM launch will quell any fear out there? From Friday-now BBM and the buyout have actually instilled more fear. What makes you think he is going to pay $9 a share if it is trading at 6,5,4 etc. He'll buy on the open market and/or exercise his out under the deal. Do you think his investors will give him the money to buy something at $9 that they can buy on the open market for significantly less? There won't be time for BBM to effect the share price. He is already taking a hit from 17 to 9, he won't absorb a further hit if he doesn't have to. He's already engaged in a massive and expensive salvage mission, he isn't going to make it worse.

Folks, I really do HOPE it gets better, but it does not HAVE to get better. There are no guarantees that we have seen and heard the worse.

you are getting ahead of yourself, and it takes two to tango. why would the BOD accept a lower priced deal? and a low price is NOT going to help Prem since he is not planning on adding shares anyways

[OMGitworks]

Does anyone want to venture a guess on how hard it is to get investors to invest in something at $9 per share when it is trading at $8. PW will certainly make the case for the turn around story and assets BBRY has, but it will be a tough sell,e specially when they know he already has a lot of skin in the game and may not be putting up any new money. It certainly can be done, but it won't be easy. Luckily, or sadly its not a lot of money we are talking about here, "only" 4.7B.

[OMGitworks]

you are getting ahead of yourself, and it takes two to tango. why would the BOD accept a lower priced deal? and a low price is NOT going to help Prem since he is not planning on adding shares anyways

They don't have to accept a lower deal, but for you to say they will get the $9 even if the stock price goes to zero totally ignores the reality of what will happen if the stock continues to drop. IF the PW deals falls through by Nov 4th and no other bidders emerge, I could easily see BBRY drop to $5-6 when that is announced. If it does, a $7 offer would be great.

[cgk]

Does anyone want to venture a guess on how hard it is to get investors to invest in something at $9 per share when it is trading at $8. PW will certainly make the case for the turn around story and assets BBRY has, but it will be a tough sell,e specially when they know he already has a lot of skin in the game and may not be putting up any new money. It certainly can be done, but it won't be easy. Luckily, or sadly its not a lot of money we are talking about here, "only" 4.7B.

There is a game but I think it looks more like this (apologies for my terrible photoshop skills):

[sidhuk]

Almost No Volume.

[silversun10]

Does anyone want to venture a guess on how hard it is to get investors to invest in something at $9 per share when it is trading at $8. PW will certainly make the case for the turn around story and assets BBRY has, but it will be a tough sell,e specially when they know he already has a lot of skin in the game and may not be putting up any new money. It certainly can be done, but it won't be easy. Luckily, or sadly its not a lot of money we are talking about here, "only" 4.7B.

we are one halt away from a 20% higher or lower share price. so, at this stage the share price is mostly noise. but it sure and understandably scares people to no end.

[cgk]

we are one halt away from a 20% higher or lower share price. so, at this stage the share price is mostly noise. but it sure and understandably scares people to no end.

20% is still a terrible outcome - of the sort that people here were claiming only two weeks ago would be impossible.

[Gekko]

20% is still a terrible outcome - of the sort that people here were claiming only two weeks ago would be impossible.

what happens Fri? what news could be unleashed that isn't already priced in?