[Dunt Dunt Dunt]

Ribes Nigrum!!

The current price is what it is, they offered $ 9.00/shr and if that looks good to you, it's a fair price. As you can see by the volume, the shares are being picked up at an alarming rate here. That's a run of 16 million shares in the first 1/2 hour. Shareholders are voting right now, they are giving Prem their shares at $ 8.63/shr currently, telling him to take over the company. If he gets to 90% it's a done deal. So someone interested in the company has to buy his shares at a price that he will accept. Time is of the essence here, if MSFT wanted to buy the company, they now have to deal with Prem and Mikey, its that simple, what would those two want to hand over their shares? MSFT could offer $ 13.50/shr and these guys might not go for it.

I keep reading that Prem doesn't have the financing, give your head a shake people!! We had 16 million shares trading in the first 1/2 hour, they are going to Prem and he is buying them with MONEY! He is invested in the takeover at a large risk and therefore he needs to receive something for the risk if the company goes with MSFT. Watch the volume to see if you think he will have enough shares to own the company. Whomever wants to be a part of BlackBerry needs to step up here and make themselves known, the sooner the better as they need to capture shares too. Prem is free to buy shares in the company at all prices, that includes a MSFT price of $ 13.50/shr, he can buy those too. This is the beginning of an interesting battle, rarely do we see an uncontested battle with no one interested in the prize. They don't make prizes like this one every day.

Thanks for the comment on the TA, as you know they will look at the chart and see that BBRY has rarely traded this low in 2013. Yet another factor in buying the company.

Don't see any battle...

One persons prize is another persons garbage.

I agree that most likely PW has been buying all he can right now, which is why I don't see MSFT or anyone else coming in with an offer that HE is going to accept. He is going to lose on the value of his stock holdings, but he'll more than make it up as the auctioneer of BlackBerry's assets. If MSFT came along at $14 or $15 a share, it means nothing to him and he'll vote no... and there will be no 90%. I think the offer is the offer and he isn't going to pay more and he isn't going to vote yes on anything higher... unless it goes above what he is into BBRY for.

[morganplus8]

May I understand MSFT does play this battle ?

I've been saying it for months, Samsung needs patents, they have few and spend $ 100 of millions in court, to buy BlackBerry for their patents alone and spin off the rest makes sense. Remember, MSFT got a 10-year lease on NOK patents for $ 2.5 billion, this is more than the enitre BBRY price today. It also make sense for competitiors to take away any opportunity to start or maintain this business. Then there are the new players, those who make phones and want North American exposure. You can't rule out MSFT after what they paid for NOK stuff, they fit perfectly into the Enterprise spectra. We have Sony, they could benefit from owning BlackBerry, the list is endless and the price of admission is cheap. My hat's off to Prem if he can get this company that cheap.

The main question here is what would it take for Mikey and Prem to stand down and sale their shares to others? When you can answer that question, you know what the end game is here.

[sidhuk]

Have a Jack on me then !

Thanks Superfly. In about 10 hours from now.
I think you are about 6 hours ahead of me. So cheers in advance.

[Komoto]

So many variables, it's like a giant game of expensive chess!

Posted via CB10

[sidhuk]

Bidding war...maybe?



Watsa's Blackberry Bid May Not Be The Last One - Forbes

Morgan, I didnt know you wrote for Forbes too? Nice Alias.
LoL

[m1a1mg]

All this talk is great, when you don't include the fact that Prem has said he is not increasing his holdings. Those shares that are moving aren't going to Prem. So who is buying?

[Randeman]

I have a feeling that some/most of today's drop, so far, is due to the announcement of the delay of xBBM.

[morganplus8]

Don't see any battle...

One persons prize is another persons garbage.

I agree that most likely PW has been buying all he can right now, which is why I don't see MSFT or anyone else coming in with an offer that HE is going to accept. He is going to lose on the value of his stock holdings, but he'll more than make it up as the auctioneer of BlackBerry's assets. If MSFT came along at $14 or $15 a share, it means nothing to him and he'll vote no... and there will be no 90%. I think the offer is the offer and he isn't going to pay more and he isn't going to vote yes on anything higher... unless it goes above what he is into BBRY for.

Doesn't matter, if MSFT offers Prem's breakeven price of $ 13.50/shr (and dropping by the minute) Prem will jump on it. The reason is this, Prem's is an offer at $ 9.00/shr full of variables including financing, it is an "intent to buy" the company. The board has to accept the best/strongest offer and a cash offer, "a formal one" with no conditions attached to it will always be accepted over something as vague as Prem's offer. His primary goal (Prem) should be not to own the company but to lower his cost basis and to get all of his investment out of it. Now Mikey is another problem, he has an idea of what he wants for the company too and he is less clear.

Finally, there is the company itself, Heins just got his stock option (3.5 million shares) at the price of $ 9.69/shr, they would be worth nothing as of today, right after the company set the fair market value in August of this year. If an offer came along that was all cash, and it was for anything above $ 9.69/shr the entire senior staff (i.e. everyone has stock options for more than the current price) would be voting for that money maker. Prem has nothing going for him other than some more shares to average down. A deal will be reached by all parties that is the best deal for the shareholders including Prem himself.

[tiziano27]

I've been saying it for months, Samsung needs patents, they have few and spend $ 100 of millions in court, to buy BlackBerry for their patents alone and spin off the rest makes sense. Remember, MSFT got a 10-year lease on NOK patents for $ 2.5 billion, this is more than the enitre BBRY price today. It also make sense for competitiors to take away any opportunity to start or maintain this business. Then there are the new players, those who make phones and want North American exposure. You can't rule out MSFT after what they paid for NOK stuff, they fit perfectly into the Enterprise spectra. We have Sony, they could benefit from owning BlackBerry, the list is endless and the price of admission is cheap. My hat's off to Prem if he can get this company that cheap.

The main question here is what would it take for Mikey and Prem to stand down and sale their shares to others? When you can answer that question, you know what the end game is here.

Microsoft payed $2.5 billion not only to license Nokia patents, Microsoft got the cross-patent agreements that Nokia had with other companies. Microsoft claims that is the smartphone builder with better patent coverage in the world thanks to this agreement.

Samsung has good patent coverage too, they won a ban over the iPhone, and Obama vetoed. What patents do BB have and how valuable are for Samsung or other players? It could be the case that patents are important for the industry or It could be the case that are totally irrelevant, or something in between.

[Kid Vibe]

I have a feeling that some/most of today's drop, so far, is due to the announcement of the delay of xBBM.

Horrible execution... if Prem didn't step in, this stock would be 7.

[BB Fightclub]

Prem's going for an amalgamation squeeze-out???
Here is Prem's letter to BB:
EX-2, BlackBerry Limited-Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited

He is creating a company called "Newco". Sounds alot like "BidCo" in:

Below quote from:
legal-framework and mechanics of going private transactions in Canada | McMillan
An amalgamation is a statutory means under corporate legislation of combining two or more companies into a single entity. There are a variety of ways in which a GPT may be structured as an amalgamation and a simple one could be described as follows:

1.The Bidder (and along with its joint actors), usually a controlling shareholder in a GPT, sets up a new wholly-owned subsidiary in the same jurisdiction of the acquiree (the "BidCo"), to which the Bidder transferred all of its shares of the acquiree;


2.An amalgamation of BidCo and acquiree is proposed and negotiated between the Bidder and the acquiree;


3.A shareholders meeting of the BidCo and acquiree is called, respectively, and both BidCo and acquiree shall approve the amalgamation by a special resolution (i.e., 2/3 of votes cast of the shareholders who vote on the resolution);


4.Upon amalgamation, the Bidder (and along with its joint actors) receives all of the voting shares of the amalgamated company in exchange for its shares in BidCo and all the shareholders of the acquiree receive either cash or, more commonly, redeemable shares in the amalgamated company; and


5.When the transaction is completed, the redeemable shares of the amalgamated company are immediately redeemed for cash. At the end of the day, the Bidder (along with its joint actors) becomes the sole shareholder of the amalgamated company.
Different from a plan of arrangement, the amalgamation transaction does not require a Court approval, but it shall obtain an approval by a special resolution of generally 66 2/3% of the shares represented in person or by proxy at a shareholders' meeting of both BidCo and the acquiree. With limited exceptions (as discussed below), a separate approval by a majority of minority shareholders of the acquiree is also required under MI 61-101 if an insider or interested parties are involved, which is usually the case in a GPT.

In a GPT, if the Bidder, in combination with any potential co-operating acquirors, beneficially owns more than 90% of the shares of the acquiree before commencing the amalgamation, then MI 61-101 may exempt the requirement of majority of minority approval. MI 61-101 provides that the minority approval requirement does not apply to an issuer (the acquiree) if, among other things, (i) one or more persons that are interested parties beneficially own, in the aggregate, 90% or more of the outstanding securities of a class of affected securities at the time that the business combination (e.g. any type of GPT discussed herein other than a take-over bid without the Subsequent Acquisition Transaction) is agreed to, and (ii) an appraisal remedy (i.e., dissent right) is available for the holders of the class of affected securities under the corporate statute. As such, if (i) a Bidder, together with co-operating acquirers, owns greater than 90% of the acquiree's shares, and (ii) the corporate legislation (such as BCA) under which the acquiree is incorporated provides statutory dissent rights, then the minority approval may be exempted under MI 61-101 where the structure the GPT is proposed as an amalgamation squeeze-out.

It should be noted, however, that an amalgamation squeeze-out for a TSX Venture issuer, might be regarded as lack of sufficient protection for the minority shareholders, in that, such an amalgamation does not require a formal valuation (by applying the same exemption as discussed in the plan of arrangement) nor a majority of minority shareholders approval. In addition, the Court will not be required to review the fairness of the price offered to the minority shareholders nor scrutinize the procedural fairness of such an amalgamation. Those factors will largely increase the risk of litigation by the disgruntled minority shareholders as the mere remedy for the minority shareholders whose interests are affected is to commence a lawsuit and seek the court's determination on the fairness of the price and procedures with respect to the amalgamation squeeze-out. A lawsuit by shareholders (especially a class action) would be very costly, time-consuming and create greater uncertainties on the timeline to close the Transaction.

[mastermike87]

Microsoft payed $2.5 billion not only to license Nokia patents, Microsoft got the cross-patent agreements that Nokia had with other companies. Microsoft claims that is the smartphone builder with better patent coverage in the world thanks to this agreement.

Samsung has good patent coverage too, they won a ban over the iPhone, and Obama vetoed. What patents do BB have and how valuable are for Samsung or other players? It could be the case that patents are important for the industry or It could be the case that are totally irrelevant, or something in between.

In the game of intellectual property, having patents whether "important" or not is still a strategic ploy and can be valuable for innovation and development. Edit: in essence, buying a portfolio of 100 patents even if only one or two are useful is still better than no portfolio altogether.

I don't know the extent of their holdings, but I'd assume some sort of qwerty patent is on there, the stuff they snagged from QNX and Nortel would be welcomed for companies looking to advance their enterprise division.

Posted via CB10

[morganplus8]

In the game of intellectual property, having patents whether "important" or not is still a strategic ploy and can be valuable for innovation and development. Edit: in essence, buying a portfolio of 100 patents even if only one or two are useful is still better than no portfolio altogether.

I don't know the extent of their holdings, but I'd assume some sort of qwerty patent is on there, the stuff they snagged from QNX and Nortel would be welcomed for companies looking to advance their enterprise division.

Posted via CB10

Lenovo and the like would kill to have BlackBerry's intellectual patents, many other companies would too, they include EEC, the value of not having those patents in "others" hands is not something to treat lightly here. BlackBerry patents are huge. Samsung had a horrific year last year around the world. Just on patent alone, $ 2.1 billion isn't enough.

[mastermike87]

Lenovo and the like would kill to have BlackBerry's intellectual patents, many other companies would too, they include EEC, the value of not having those patents in "others" hands is not something to treat lightly here. BlackBerry patents are huge. Samsung had a horrific year last year around the world. Just on patent alone, $ 2.1 billion isn't enough.

I was trying to recall the EEC patent, but couldn't remember it.

Samsung has had a rough go of it, hence why they would overpay for patents. I also think that if Samsung or Lenovo or any other non-NA company views BlackBerry as a valued asset (which they'd be stupid not to) overpayment on patents is a way to circumvent the Canadian government nixing a takeover.

Posted via CB10

[BB Fightclub]

Crackberry Kevin is in Korea right now....He's not saying why he's there????

[sidhuk]

Crackberry Kevin is in Korea right now....He's not saying why he's there????

Sneaking in to North and have a 3s company meeting along with denis rodman? LoL

[sparkaction]

Crackberry Kevin is in Korea right now....He's not saying why he's there????

Is kinda weird as he has always stated why he is a way in the past. Even when he is on vacation, he let's us know. I don't think it as anything to do with BlackBerry but maybe something related to a fan site for Samsung. I pulled that thought out of my....

[silversun10]

Crackberry Kevin is in Korea right now....He's not saying why he's there????

sssss......secret negotiations.........working on a bid for BB

[Bugmapper]

Job interview

Posted via CB10 on a Z10 root device!

[tiziano27]

Lenovo and the like would kill to have BlackBerry's intellectual patents, many other companies would too, they include EEC, the value of not having those patents in "others" hands is not something to treat lightly here. BlackBerry patents are huge. Samsung had a horrific year last year around the world. Just on patent alone, $ 2.1 billion isn't enough.

In the game of intellectual property, having patents whether "important" or not is still a strategic ploy and can be valuable for innovation and development. Edit: in essence, buying a portfolio of 100 patents even if only one or two are useful is still better than no portfolio altogether.

I don't know the extent of their holdings, but I'd assume some sort of qwerty patent is on there, the stuff they snagged from QNX and Nortel would be welcomed for companies looking to advance their enterprise division.

Posted via CB10

Yes, ECC seems to have a future, but how much is the value of that patent? $200m, $500m, $50m?
BlackBerry bought QNX for $200m so you could expect related patents value to be less than that?

Probably all the patents will be bought because there is the possibility that something valuable could came out of that in the future. But if the patents aren't relevant now the value could be low.

How much money is BB making from their patent portfolio?

The point is patents aren't an homogeneous good. You can't predict the value of patent portfolio from the value of other patent portfolio. That is naive or a fallacy that can make you lose money.

[sidhuk]

Off topic,
Does the Q10 hass the same antenna technology as Z30?

[the_sleuth]

Analyst: Rock solid secure network, patents, and enterprise MDM solutions, then there is 75% chance of rival bids:

Analysts peg chances of rival BlackBerry bid at up to 75% - BNN News

[capper96]

Bottom line, we just entered a poker game with BBRY sitting in the middle of the table.

We know PW's hand, he has to bet, his hand is weak since most of his shares are underwater. Are there any other poker players at the table? He had to show his hand to protect his investment, by trying to buy the pot, basically he got in for double the big blind.

What we don't know is the other player's plans, or who the other players are. Expect some LENOVO rumors or Laz to bump up the price. In the meantime, the true fireworks will happen around Halloween.

[spiller]

I suspect so, but does this mean no xBBM until November, you think?

xBBM should be released within 2 weeks. Give it 2 more weeks to hit 100M users.

Same with 10.2 on the Z10 / Q10 / Q5. Some positive articles to come out now. Probably some good apps on 10.2 too.

Prem gets his bid in at the height of intentional bad news. If the ER details and call aren't much worse that what is already known, things should heat up in what the 'value of BBRY' is.

[cjcampbell]

Off topic,
Does the Q10 hass the same antenna technology as Z30?

No... the Z30 is the first for that one.